Dick's Picks

Downey's Picks on the Road to the Kentucky Derby

Birthday Boy Tiz Chrome Pick in Lewis

By Dick Downey
The Downey Profile

Posted Feb. 4, 2010

Saturday is the third anniversary of Tiz Chrome's foal date, and connections may very well have a birthday party in the winner's circle of the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes. But will Tiz Chrome be able to blow out the candles?

Born on Feb. 6, 2007, Tiz Chrome is the sort of late-developing colt any owner or trainer covets. In his only two career starts, he won on dirt at Churchill Downs in November, then destroyed the field on synthetic in the Stuka Stakes at Hollywood Park on Dec. 19. Both races were sprints.

Since then, he's put in six workouts ascending from five to six to seven furlongs, then descending back to six, then five furlongs. All of them but one are spaced exactly seven days apart during a period of time when rain and other circumstances created interruptions in the training regimens of lots of SoCal trainees.

The fact that this horse was accepted into the Bob Baffert barn in the first place after being RNA'd for only $9,000 at Keeneland September 2008 is a curiosity in and of itself. This son of Tiznow had to change a lot to go from Keeneland Yearling reject to a colt about whom Baffert said after the Stuka, "That Tiz Chrome, he’s a pretty serious horse."

Tiz Chrome's stable mate, Eddie Logan Stakes winner Macias, should be part of the pace scenario, and we will be interested to see if Tiz Chrome tracks it, then tries to pounce under Garrett Gomez.

American Lion has no auction sale history, being a WinStar Farm homebred. He'll have his calendar birthday four days after the Lewis. Like Tiz Chrome, Tiznow is his dad, and he'll also go two turns for the first time.

In the capable hands of Eion Harty, American Lion missed the Grade I CashCall Futurity after winning the Grade III Hollywood Prevue. He shows a solid worktab for nearly two months coming into this one. We'll see if American Lion has grown up much since the Prevue. After that win, Harty said the colt was "sensible, but. . .unfocused," so the sense here is that Harty wanted to give the colt more time, but not necessarily primarily due to physical issues.

Julien Leparoux flies in to ride American Lion, as he has done before.

As for Harty, he views the Lewis as a stepping stone, saying late last week that he wants to keep his eye on the big prize. Notwithstanding that, bettors will be drawn to American Lion in droves.

Like Tiz Chrome, Dave in Dixie started his sale life as a Keeneland RNA ($47,000), but a return to Lexington in Spring, 2008 saw him fetch $310,000 at the 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

With some pace in here, Dave in Dixie could get up to hit the board if he runs like he did in the Grade I Norfolk. He was coming late, and although he finished sixth, he was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths by Lookin at Lucky. One of two in here trained by John Sadler.

Caracortado, who's four-for-four, has been a source of joy for his stable, and the stretchout to win the California Breeders' Champion Stakes was done with pleasing ease. Should he still be in good fettle, Caracortado is dangerous; however, the figures we're seeing show him perhaps a notch below some of the others.

DICK'S PICKS:

1. TIZ CHROME
2. DAVE IN DIXIE
3. AMERICAN LION
4. CARACORTADO

Post	Horse	ML	S	M/E	Wt	Jockey	Trainer
1	Macias (KY)	8-1	C	L*	117	V. Espinoza	B. Baffert
2	Dave in Dixie (KY)	3-1	C	L*	115	J. Rosario	J. W. Sadler
3	Tiz Chrome (KY)	2-1	C	L*	117	G. K. Gomez	B. Baffert
4	Caracortado (CA)	6-1	G	L*	117	P. Atkinson	M. Machowsky
5	Tango Tango (KY)	20-1	C	L*	115	R. Bejarano	J. Hollendorfer
6	American Lion (KY)	5-2	C	L*	117	J. R. Leparoux	E. G. Harty
7	Domonation (KY)	8-1	C	L*	115	J. Talamo	J. W. Sadler

Results of Dick's Picks on the Road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby

Updated April 19, 2009

On the Road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby, Dick's Picks posted a Top Four for each of 14 races handicapped on this site and at Bloodhorse.com.

A $2 exacta box wager on the Top Four in each race cost $24 per race, or a total of $336.00. Successful wagers paid a total of $773.00 for a profit of 130% on investment. See results shown in BOLD below.

A $1 trifecta box wager on the Top Four for each race cost $24, or a total of $336.00. Successful wagers paid a total of $1,987.05 for a profit of 491% on investment. See results shown in BOLD below.

A $1 superfecta wager on the Top Four for each race cost $24, or a total of $336.00. Successful wagers paid a total of $5,184.70 for a profit of 1,443% on investment. See results shown in BOLD below.

The superfecta return came in its entirety in the first Road race, the Holy Bull Stakes, as did almost all of the return on the trifecta profit. That's why, when we have a portfolio at all, we want a diverse portfolio.

Holy Bull Stakes

1. SARATOGA SINNER (Won at 12-1)
2. WEST SIDE BERNIE (Third at 5-2)
3. BEAR'S ROCKET (Second at 33-1)
4. BEETHOVEN (Fourth at 5-1)

Danger to Society was seventh at 9-5.

$2 Exacta paid $580.00
$1 Trifecta paid $1,942.30
$1 Superfecta paid $5,184.70

Risen Star Stakes

1. DUMAR (Ninth at 28-1)
2. GIANT OAK (Fifth at 2-1; troubled trip)
3. INDYGO MOUNTAIN (Seventh at 5-1)
4. AU MOON (Eighth at 11-1)

Friesan Fire won at 5-2; Flying Pegasus second at 10-1; Uno Mas third at 12-1; Nowhere to Hide fourth at 20-1.

$2 Exacta paid $76.00
$1 Trifecta paid $317.90
$1 Superfecta paid $3,468.20

Sam F. Davis Stakes

1. FREE COUNTRY (Fourth at 9-5)
2. MUSKET MAN (Third at 3-1)
3. CLIFFY'S FUTURE (Eighth at 13-1)
4. ATOMIC RAIN (Seventh at 5-2)
General Quarters won at 13-1. Sumo was second at 33-1.

$2 Exacta paid $893.80
$1 Trifecta paid $3,391.80
$1 Superfecta paid $12,906.70

Southwest Stakes

1. SILVER CITY (second at 3-1)
2. OLD FASHIONED (first at 2-5)
3. POLTERGEIST (seventh at 9-1)
4. LOCH DUBH (fifth at 55-1)
Buzzin and Dreamin third at 64-1; Flat Out fourth at 11-1

$2 Exacta paid $7.80
$1 Trifecta paid $110.00
$1 Superfecta paid $602.30

Fountain of Youth

1. CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Fourth at 7-2)
2. NOTONTHESAMEPAGE (Seventh at 7-1)
3. QUALITY ROAD (Won at 5-1)
4. TAQARUB (Ninth at 6-1)
Theregoesjojo second at 9-2.

$2 Exacta paid $77.20
$1 Trifecta paid $261.20
$1 Superfecta paid $1,046.90

Gotham Stakes

1. MASALA (Fourth at 5-1)
2. IMPERIAL COUNCIL (Second at 7-2)
3. MR. FANTASY (Third at 2-1)
4. HAYNESFIELD (Eighth at 5-1)
I Want Revenge won at 3-1.

$2 Exacta paid $40.80
$1 Trifecta paid $111.00
$1 Superfecta paid $175.70

Louisiana Derby

1. PATENA (Eighth at 4-1)
2. FRIESAN FIRE (Won at 2-1)
3. PAPA CLEM (Second at 5-1)
4. NOWHERE TO HIDE (Scratched)
Terrain third at 8-1. Giant Oak fourth at 8-1.

$2 Exacta paid $43.40
$1 Trifecta paid $197.60
$1 Superfecta paid $970.20

Rebel Stakes

1. OLD FASHIONED (Second at 2-5)
2. WISE KID (Ninth at 9-1)
3. CAPTAIN CHEROKEE (Fourth at 18-1)
4. SILVER CITY (Fifth at 6-1)
Win Willy won at 56-1. Poltergeist third at 41-1.

$2 Exacta paid $320.40
$1 Trifecta paid $1,910.60
$1 Superfecta paid $13,363.10

Lane's End Stakes

1. WEST SIDE BERNIE (Sixth at 2-1)
2. LOCH DUBH (Longshot Pick) (Ninth at 16-1)
3. BITTEL ROAD (Tenth at 2-1)
4. BRUCE N AUTUMN (Seventh at 51-1)
Top four finishers: Hold Me Back (9-1), Flying Private (24-1), Proceed Bee (17-1), Parade Clown (9-1).

$2 Exacta paid $586.80
$1 Trifecta paid $3,785.20
$1 Superfecta paid $40,944.60

Florida Derby

1. DUNKIRK (Second at 1-1)
2. THEREGOESJOJO (Third at 7-2)
3. QUALITY ROAD (Won at 6-5)
4. TOBY THE COAL MAN (Seventh at 35-1)
Stately Character fourth at 87-1

$2 Exacta paid $9.00
$1 Trifecta paid $6.00
$1 Superfecta paid $36.10

Wood Memorial

1. IMPERIAL COUNCIL (Fifth at 5-2)
2. I WANT REVENGE (Won at 1-2)
3. WEST SIDE BERNIE (Second at 9-1)
4. JUST A COINCIDENCE (Third at 15-1)

$2 Exacta paid $15.20
$1 Trifecta paid $38.75
$1 Superfecta NA

Illinois Derby

1. PERFECT SONG (Seventh at 3-1)
2. MUSKET MAN (Won at 5-2)
3. IL POSTINO (Fifth at 34-1)
4. NOWHERE TO HIDE (Fourth at 5-1)
Giant Oak second at 5-2; His Greatness third at 51-1)

$2 Exacta paid $29.20
$1 Trifecta paid $240.70
$1 Superfecta paid $825.60

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

1. HOLD ME BACK (Second at 2-1)
2. TERRAIN (Fourth at 7-1)
3. GENERAL QUARTERS (Won at 14-1)
4. CHARITABLE MAN (Seventh at 5-1)
Massone third at 10-1

$2 Exacta paid $117.60
$1 Trifecta paid $699.70
$1 Superfecta paid $4,630.90

Coolmore Lexington Stakes

1. OMNISCIENT (Ninth at 5-1)
2. MASALA (Fourth at 7-1)
3. PARADE CLOWN (Eighth at 11-1)
4. SQUARE EDDIE (Third at 7-5)
Advice won at 15-1; Conservative second at 16-1

$2 Exacta paid $441.20
$1 Trifecta paid $950.50
$1 Superfecta paid $6,036.50

Results of Dick's Picks on the Road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby

On the Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby, DICK'S PICKS selected a Top Four for 15 races and a Top Three for three races.

Boxing those picks in a $2 exacta in each race cost $396.00 and returned $519.10, a profit of 31%.

Boxing those picks in a $1 trifecta in each race cost $378.00 and returned $1,175.90, a profit of 211%.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes

1. CROWN OF THORNS (won at 8-5)
2. REFLECT TIMES (third at 5-2)
3. INDIAN SUN (fourth at 5-2)
Coast Guard second at 9-2.

Whirlaway Stakes

1. ROMAN EMPEROR (second at 3-1)
2. TEXAS WILDCATTER (third at 5-1)
3. SPANKY FISCHBEIN (fourth at 7-2)
4. CAVE'S VALLEY (sixth at 2-1)
Barrier Reef won at 5-1

Risen Star Stakes

1. PYRO (won at 4-5)
2. BLACKBERRY ROAD (fifth at 7-1)
3. VISIONAIRE (third at 5-1)
4. THE DARP (seventh at 37-1)
Z Fortune second at 3-1

Sam F. Davis Stakes

1. Z HUMOR (fifth at 6-5)
2. BIG TRUCK (second at 9-1)
3. WISE ANSWER (sixth at 9-2)
4. FIERCE WIND (won at 3-1)
Smooth Air third at 4-1.
$2 Exacta paid $74.60

Southwest Stakes

1. DENIS OF CORK (won at 9-2)
2. TURF WAR (ninth at 2-1)
3. SIERRA SUNSET (second at 11-1)
4. ISABULL (seventh at 16-1)
$2 exacta paid $141.80

Fountain of Youth Stakes

1. MONBA (twelfth at 7-2)
2. ANAK NAKAL (eighth at 10-1)
3. ELYSIUM FIELDS (second at 8-1)
4. COURT VISION (third at 4-1)
Cool Coal Man won at 7-1

Battaglia Memorial Stakes

1. YOUR ROUND (second at 7-2)
2. DIXIE DECISION (third at 40-1)
3. BIG GLEN (fourth at 7-2)
4. CHEROKEE TRIANGLE (eighth at 8-1)
Absolutely Cindy won at 19-1)

Sham Stakes

1. COLONEL JOHN (won at 3-2)
2. COAST GUARD (scratched)
3. EL GATO MALO (second at 3-5)
$2 exacta paid $7.80.

Lousiana Derby

1. TALE OF EKATI (sixth at 9-2)
2. PYRO (first at 4-5)
3. J BE K (eighth at 9-2)
4. BLACKBERRY ROAD (fourth at 11-1.
My Pal Charlie second at 60-1; Yankee Bravo third at 12-1.

Tampa Bay Derby

1. WAR PASS (seventh at 1-20)
2. BIG TRUCK (won at 7-1)
3. MAKE ME ZACH (fourth at 57-1)
Atoned second at 9-1; Dynamic Wayne third at 49-1.

Rebel Stakes

1. KING'S SILVER SON (second at 17-1)
2. Z FORTUNE (fifth at 3-5)
3. SIERRA SUNSET (won at 4-1)
4. ISABULL (third at 26-1)
$2 exacta paid $173.60; $1 trifecta paid $1,105.40.

Lane's End Stakes

1. HALO NAJIB (second at 3-1)
2. CANNONBALL (sixth at 5-1)
3. RACECAR RHAPSODY (fourth at 7-2)
4. MACHO AGAIN (seventh at 16-1)
Adriano won at 9-2; Medjool third at 7-1.

Florida Derby

1. ELYSIUM FIELDS (eleventh at 5-2)
2. FIERCE WIND (tenth at 7-1)
3. SMOOTH AIR (second at 16-1)
4. BIG BROWN (won at 3-1)
$2 Exacta paid $68.80

Illinois Derby

1. ATONED (fourth at 7-2)
2. REAL APPEAL (seventh at 8-1)
3. DENIS OF CORK (fifth at 1-1)
4. Z HUMOR (third at 9-2)
Recapturetheglory won at 15-1; Golden Spikes second at 5-1.

Wood Memorial

1. WAR PASS (second at 4-5)
2. TEXAS WILDCATTER (eighth at 9-2)
3. COURT VISION (third at 5-2)
4. TALE OF EKATI (won at 8-1)
$2 exacta paid $52.50; $1 trifecta paid $70.50.

Blue Grass Stakes

1. PYRO (tenth at 1-1)
2. VISIONAIRE (fifth at 10-1)
3. MONBA (won at 8-1)
4. BIG TRUCK (eleventh at 10-1)
Cowboy Cal second at 8-1; Kentucky Bear third at 27-1; Stevil fourth at 68-1)
Tough race. $2 superfecta paid $44,821.60

Arkansas Derby

1. KING'S SILVER SON (ninth at 5-1)
2. MY PAL CHARLIE (fifth at 7-1)
3. GOLDEN YANK (seventh at 13-1)
4. GAYEGO (first at 2-1)
Tough race. $2 superfecta paid $11,068.20.

Coolmore Lexington Stakes

1. RACECAR RHAPSODY (fourth at 4-1)
2. RILEY TUCKER (third at 10-1)
3. SAMBA ROOSTER (second at 17-1)
4. ATONED (eighth at 9-2)
Behindatthebar won at 5-1