Oct. 29 NOTE: All Ladies Classic Pre-Entries have been rated using our Trends.
See below for Summaries and Detail.
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--Simply click to the Division you want to view on the Subscription Page. Oct. 26-Nov. 3: Pre-Entries are taken on Monday, Oct. 26. After they are released on Oct. 28, and before Final Entries and the post position draw the following week, TRENDS SUMMARIES and TRENDS DETAILS for individual horses are posted for each of the eight traditional Breeders' Cup races.
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--As advertised, we'll post Picks for the eight traditional Breeders' Cup races, some of which (filly and mare races, and the Marathon) will be run on Friday.
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BREEDERS' CUP LADIES' CLASSIC (formerly Distaff) TRENDS: DETAIL
1. PRIOR TWO RACES.
A. The trend is in favor of horses that hit the board in each of their prior two races.
CARELESS JEWEL, COCOA BEACH, LETHAL HEAT, MUSHKA, MUSIC NOTE, PROVISO, RAINBOW VIEW, ZENYATTA
In 25 years, the winner of the Ladies' Classic (formerly the Distaff) has finished worse than third in one of her prior two races six times. That's six times in 50 races (12%). There is an equal distribution--three winners finished off the board in their final prep race, and three were off the board two races back.
B. The trend is neutral for horses that won each of their last two races.
NO CALL
The winner has won each of her prior two races five times in the last 17 runnings (29%). In the first eight runnings, the winner won each of her prior two races seven times (88%).
C. The trend is neutral as to horses that won their final prep.
NO CALL.
Six winners in the past 17 years (35%) won their final prep.
D. However, the trend is in favor of horses that finished either first or second in their final prep.
Five winners in the past 17 years finished second in their final prep--so, combined with the ones noted in item C above, 11 of the last 17 winners (65%) finished either first or second in their final prep.
E. The trend is neutral as to horses that finished worse than second in their final prep.
NO CALL.
In the last 17 years, three winners finished third in their final preps, two winners finished fourth, and one winner finished sixth--a total of five such winners (29%).
2. FINAL PREP RACE TRENDS: WHICH RACE DID THEY COME FROM?
FILLIES AND MARES THAT LAST RAN IN THE SPINSTER, BELDAME OR LADY'S SECRET: COCOA BEACH, LETHAL HEAT, LIFE IS SWEET, MUSHKA, MUSIC NOTE, PROVISO, ZENYATTA
Nine of the last 10 winners have come from either the Spinster, the Beldame or the Lady's Secret. With the Spinster and Lady's Secret--and the Ladies' Classic--being on synthetic track this year, the trend for those two preps may be enhanced.
A. The Spinster.
Of 25 winners, 10 competed in Keeneland's Spinster in her final prep race (40%). That trend has spiraled down a bit in recent years. Five Spinster competitors won the Distaff in its first eight runnings. Of the last 17 winners, five competed in the Spinster in her final prep race (29%).
B. The Beldame.
Six of 25 winners (24%) have seen Belmont Park's Beldame as their final prep race. While two of those winners came in the first six years, leaving four in the last 19 years (21%), they include the 2006 and 2007 winners, Round Pond and Ginger Punch.
C. The Lady's Secret.
Five winners have come from the Lady's Secret at Santa Anita, and that race has only been run since 1993. Lady's Secret won the 1986 Distaff. Of the four runnings of this Breeders' Cup race in Southern California beginning in 1993, three winners last ran in the Lady's Secret.
3. NO TREND TWO RACES BACK.
NO CALL.
The Ruffian at Belmont has been run two races back by six of 25 Distaff winners (24%), but five of those were in the first 12 Breeders' Cups. The sixth was in 2007. The remaining winners' races run two back are all over the board.
4. SUCCESSFUL SYNTHETIC TRACK EXPERIENCE (Hit the Board on synthetic track this year).
CARELESS JEWEL, COCOA BEACH (gets factor for hitting board in 2008 Ladies Classic), LETHAL HEAT, LIFE IS SWEET, MUSHKA, MUSIC NOTE gets factor for hitting board in 2008 Ladies Classic), PROVISO, ZENYATTA
5. THE BEYER INDEX FOR THE LADIES' CLASSIC IS 106.89.
Beyer speed figures have been recorded in the last 19 runnings. Winning Beyer Speed ratings, starting with the most recent:
Fillies and mares with a 106 Beyer or 120 Timeform or more: CARELESS JEWEL, MUSIC NOTE, ZENYATTA
6. TIME BETWEEN FINAL PREP AND BREEDERS' CUP.
A. 84% of winners have raced 20-28 days before the race. The trend is against a 20-21 day break.
MORE THAN A 20- OR 21-DAY BREAK SINCE LAST RACE: CARELESS JEWEL, COCOA BEACH, LETHAL HEAT, LIFE IS SWEET, MUSHKA, MUSIC NOTE, PROVISO, ZENYATTA
Of 25 winners, 21 last raced between 20 and 28 days before Breeders' Cup day (84%). Of the other four winners, three had more time off, and one winner--Princess Rooney, the very first (1984)--had only two weeks off between races--and she traveled from Keeneland to Hollywood Park.
Three weeks used to about right. Thirteen of 25 Distaff winners (52%) had a 20- or 21-day break between their final prep and Breeders' Cup day. However, eight of the last 10 winners (80%) have had more than a three-week break. The other two of those 10 winners had a 20- or 21-day break.
7. THE TREND FAVORS KENTUCKY-BREDS. CARELESS JEWEL, LIFE IS SWEET, MUSHKA, MUSIC NOTE, RAINBOW VIEW, ZENYATTA
But not as much as you might think. Of 25 winners, 15 were bred in Kentucky (60%). However, 10 of the last 12 winners (83%) were bred in the Bluegrass State.
From 1989 through 1994, an amazing six straight winners were not Kentucky-breds. Three of those six winners were put together in Argentina (Bayakoa, 1989 and 1990; and Paseana, 1992).
Of the seven winners not bred in Kentucky or Argentina, five were bred in Florida (Hollywood Wildcat, 1993; One Dreamer, 1994; Jewel Princess, 1996; Beautiful Pleasure (1999); Ginger Punch (2007). One was bred in Oklahoma (Lady's Secret, 1986); and one was bred in Canada (Dance Smartly, 1991).
8. DOES AGE MATTER?
OLDER THAN FOUR: COCOA BEACH, ZENYATTA
Of 25 winners, 20 were 3-year-olds or 4-year-olds (80%).
The last 10 runnings have all been won by either 3- or 4-year olds, with a 7-3 edge to 4-year olds.
Seven of 25 winners (28%) were 3-year-olds.
Thirteen winners (52%) were 4-year-olds.
Three winners (12%) were 5-year-olds.
Two winners (8%) were 6-year-olds.
9. HIGH TOTAL DOSAGE POINTS USUALLY WIN THE DAY.
28 OR MORE TOTAL DOSAGE POINTS: MUSHKA, MUSIC NOTE, RAINBOW VIEW
Of 25 winners, 15 have had 28 or more total dosage points (60%). That trend has held up fairly well in recent years, with three of the last six winners holding 44, 28 and 40 total dosage points. Of the last 17 winners, 10 have had at least 28 total dosage points (59%).
But the 2008 winner, Zenyatta, had 24 total dosage points, 2007 winner Ginger Punch had only 10 total dosage points, and in 2006, winner Round Pond had 14 total dosage points.
10. AND A DOSAGE INDEX UNDER 3.90. CARELESS JEWEL, COCOA BEACH, LETHAL HEAT, LIFE IS SWEET, MUSHKA, MUSIC NOTE, PROVISO, RAINBOW VIEW, ZENYATTA
Of 25 winners, 21 have had a dosage index of 3.89 or less (84%). The four other winners are comprised of three horses: Bayakoa (ARG, 1989 and 1990, 6.33); Paseana (ARG, 1992, 9.00) and Beautiful Pleasure (FL, 1999, 5.22).
11. AND STRONG CONNECTIONS--HUMAN AND EQUINE.
A. Breeders with multiple wins in this division: Ogden Phipps/Phipps Stable, Farnsworth Farm, Haras Principal and Allen Paulson (deceased).
None.
B. Breeders with one win in this division and at least one win in another Breeders' Cup division: Aaron and Marie Jones, Adena Springs (Frank Stronach), Marjorie and Irving Cowan, William S. Farish, Allen Paulson (deceased) and Thoroughbred Corp.
None.
C. First two generations of bloodline: Repeat dam and sire names among the first two generations behind winners in this division are: Arlucea, Awesome Again, Bold Bidder, Bold Ruler, Consultant's Bid, Damascus, Deputy Minister, Good Manners, Hoist the Flag, Key to the Mint, Kris S, Mr. Prospector, Primal Force, Private Account, Strawberry Road.
LIFE IS SWEET, ZENYATTA
D. Sires by sires in Section C who have sired a single winner in this division: Seeking the Gold, Jade Hunter, Raja Baba, Secretariat.
None.
E. Dams by sires in section C who have foaled a single winner in this division: Grecian Banner, Nalee's Flying, Miss Wildcatter, Pure Profit, Sewing Lady, Vertigineux.
ZENYATTA 12. THE TREND IS NEUTRAL-TO-AGAINST FAVORITES WINNING.
WATCH THE BOARD
While 12 of 25 winners have been favorites (48%), only four of the last 13 winners have been favorites (31%).*
In 25 runnings, 12 favorites have been odds-on. Of those 12 odds-on favorites, eight won (66.6%).
Of the 12 odds-on favorites, eight came in the first eight runnings. Six of those eight won (75%). The last 17 runnings have seen five odds-on favorites. Only two of those won.
*Favorites as winners include 2007 winner Ginger Punch, who, although she was the co-favorite on the board at 9-2, was a slight second choice.
Favorites, odds-to-1, finish position
2008: Zenyatta, 0.50, first
2007: Ginger Punch, 9-2, first; Lear's Princess, 9-2, tenth
2006: Fleet Indian, DNF
2005: Ashado, 2.25, third
2004: Ashado, 2.00, first
2003: Sightseek, 0.60, fourth
2002: Azeri, 1.80, first
2001: Flute, 1.15, seventh
2000: Riboletta, 0.40, seventh
1999: Silverbulletday, 1.60, sixth
1998: Banshee Breeze, 0.80, second
1997: Sharp Cat/Jewel Princess entry, 1.00, second/eighth
1996: Different, 1.30, third
1995: Inside Information/Heavenly Prize entry, 0.80, first/second
1994: Hollywood Wildcat, 1.80, sixth
1993: Hollywood Wildcat, 1.30, first
1992: Paseana/Exchange entry, 2.70, first/eighth
1991: Dance Smartly/Wilderness Song entry, 0.50, first/seventh
1990: Go for Wand, 0.70, DNF
1989: Bayakoa, 0.70, first
1988: Personal Ensign, 0.50, first
1987: Infinidad, 0.70, fourth
1986: Lady's Secret/Twighlight Ridge entry, 0.50, first/sixth
1985: Life's Magic/Lady's Secret/Alabama Nana entry, 0.40, first/second/fourth
1984: Princess Rooney, 0.70, first
13. 10-1 ODDS OR HIGHER AMONG TOP FOUR FINISHERS.
2008: None; the $1 super paid only 116.80
2007: None, but the $1 super still paid $3,418.50!
2006: Round Pond (won, paid 29.80); Happy Ticket (second at 14-1); Asi Siempre (DQ'd second to fourth, 11-1)
2005: Pleasant Colony (won, paid 63.50); Society Selection (second at 11-1)
2004: Stellar Jayne (third at 10-1)
2003: Adoration (won, paid 83.40)
2002: Starrer (fourth at 41-1)
2001: Unbridled Elaine (won, paid 26.60); Two Item Limit (third at 32-1); Atelier (fourth at 53-1)
2000: Spain (won, paid 113.80); Surfside (second at 10-1); Heritage of Gold (third at 12-1); Crimplene (IRE) (fourth at 42-1)
1999: None
1998: Tomisue's Delight (fourth at 14-1)
1997: Radu Cool (fourth at 16-1)
1996: None
1995: Forested (fourth at 133-1)
1994: One Dreamer (won, paid 96.20); Miss Dominique (third at 77-1); Erin Bird (FR) (fourth at 28-1)
1993: Re Toss (ARG) (third at 18-1)
1992: Queen of Triumph (f) (fourth at 50-1)
1991: Brought To Mind (third at 48-1); Fit For A Queen (fourth at 19-1)
1990: Colonial Waters (second at 14-1); Valay Maid (third at 55-1); Mistaurian (fourth at 35-1)
1989: Rose's Cantina (fourth at 30-1)
1988: Sham Say (fourth at 30-1)
1987: Queee Bebe (third at 13-1)
1986: None
1985: None
1984: Comedy Act (fourth at 44-1)