1.    Synthetic track performance has necessarily figured into our calculations, but one change we made, effective in 2011, was the elimination of performance in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park (formerly the Lane's End Stakes) as a factor. In 2010, Dean's Kitten won the Lane's End and wound up ranked on top of the Downey Profile Top Four. We did not pick him in our top four selections for the Kentucky Derby. There were other similar examples in prior years. As fate would have it, in 2011 Animal Kingdom won the Spiral and the Kentucky Derby. However, despite the fact he didn't get points in The Downey Profile for winning the Spiral, Animal Kingdom still somehow made the Top Four of the Profile.

In 2010, Stately Victor won the Blue Grass run on Keeneland's synthetic, and he ranked third in the Top Four. We did not use him at all in the Derby. Brilliant Speed, the 2011 Blue Grass winner, was also ranked in our Top Four, and we didn't use him, either. We are retaining the Blue Grass as a Profile factor, however, because Street Sense performed well in it in 2007 and then won the Kentucky Derby, and because we hope the Blue Grass will continue to attract top talent.

Sidney's Candy was yet another synthetic-track horse (Santa Anita) in our Top Four in 2010. He got stuck with a horrible post position and finished way up the track in the Derby. Thankfully, Santa Anita reverted to a dirt surface in 2011.

With these adjustments--elimination of the Spiral, and Santa Anita's return to a dirt main track--we think that synthetic specialists won't be as prominent in the Profile.

2.     A component of our Performance Points factors has always included this one: "raced three or four times at age three before the Derby." The trend has gravitated away from this method of training. In the past 10 years, Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Mine That Bird (2009), Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007) each started only twice at age three before the Derby. The other five Derby winners in that decade each started either three or four times.

In 2011, we studied the previous 10 years and determined the weights that result from both "raced three or four times" and "raced two times." We decided to award points if the horse started two times before the Derby at age three and will continue to do that.

In addition to being an objective predictor of success in the Kentucky Derby, The Downey Profile is also proficient in predicting success in the other two legs of the Triple Crown, as well as later major stakes races. The key is to not give up on your horse.

The Profile focuses on its Top Four in the Kentucky Derby. Our study encompasses all runnings of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

Let's take a look back.

2011

After winning the Derby, Animal Kingdom finished second in the Preakness and, as of this writing hasn't raced since he was sixth in the Belmont Stakes. Brilliant Speed was our top-ranked horse and finished third in the Belmont Stakes, won the Grade III Saranac, was second in the Grade I Jamaica and was third in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Comma to the Top is only a footnote. Poor old Archarcharch, whom we thought had the best pre-Derby workout, drew the one-hole and was hurt during the Derby and subsequently retired.

2010

Super Saver wasn't in The Downey Profile Top Four in 2010, but we did have him in our top three selections for the Kentucky Derby on our Subscription Page because we could see how well he was training at Churchill Downs the week before the Kentucky Derby. Ice Box was ranked second in our Top Four and we picked him to win. They ran one-two, and the exacta paid $152.40.

Super Saver was retired not long after the Derby. Something went wrong with Ice Box, and as of this writing, we're waiting to see if he returns to the races.

2009

Top-ranked Pioneerof the Nile finished second in the Kentucky Derby at 6-1 odds and then ran up the track in the Preakness. He was subsequently retired.

Third-ranked Papa Clem finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby at 12-1 odds and had only moderate success afterward, finishing fourth in the Grade I Haskell, third in a grade I and winning a grade II before retirement.

West Side Bernie ranked second and finished ninth in the Derby, but he was then purchased for a large sum and taken to Dubai. He raced twice after that, accomplishing nothing, and he's not been heard from since July, 2010.

Since his Kentucky Derby, when he didn't fare well, General Quarters has, among other things, won the Grade I Turf Classic at Churchill Downs; finished second in the Grade III Mineshaft and Grade II New Orleans Handicap; and finished third in the Grade I Stephen Foster.

Scat Daddy was tied for top rank but was hurt during the running of the Kentucky Derby and was retired.

Sam P. was ranked third but never awakened.

Fourth-ranked Any Given Saturday was compromised by post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, was probably the victim of a minor injury during the race, and finished eighth. After recovering, he reeled off wins in the Grade II Dwyer, Grade I Haskell and Grade II Brooklyn before finishing sixth on a sloppy track in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Street Sense ranked sixth in The Downey Profile but would have been in the Top Four had he won the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose instead of losing it by a nose.

Afleet Alex, the Downey Profile number one-ranked horse, lost the Kentucky Derby by one length. He went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, and was easily the nation's top three-year-old.

Flower Alley, who was ranked third, won the Jim Dandy Stakes before defeating Bellamy Road in the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes at Saratoga. The Travers is, of course, known as the "Mid-Summer Derby." Flower Alley closed out his 3-year-old campaign with a second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Buzzards Bay was ranked fourth in the Downey Profile and finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby at 41-1 odds after mounting a rally coming out of the far turn. His owners' partnership subsequently dissolved, he was sold, and he showed spotty performance afterward.

2004

Smarty Jones was in our Top Four and won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.  He finished second by a heart-breaking length in the Belmont Stakes and was retired.

The Cliff's Edge led the Profile Rankings, and although he was fifth in the Kentucky Derby after reportedly losing a shoe in the race, he went to finish second in the Travers Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Dwyer Stakes before being retired in 2004 with physical problems. 

Imperialism  was second-ranked in 2004 and validated himself with a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Third-ranked Borrego had a monster year in 2005, winning the Pacific Classic at 20-1 odds, followed with a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park.

Fourth-ranked Funny Cide won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and was third in the Belmont Stakes.

Second-ranked Empire Maker was second in the Kentucky Derby and won the Belmont. He skipped the Preakness.

Third-ranked Ten Most Wanted was second in the Belmont and won the Travers. He skipped the Preakness.

Second-, third- and fourth-ranked Empire Maker, Ten Most Wanted and Funny Cide ran one-two-three in the Belmont.

Top-ranked Buddy Gil flopped in the Derby; developed physical problems, skipped other big three-year-old races; and was retired.

Top-ranked Medaglia d’Oro ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby and eighth in the Preakness. Bettors gave up on him, and he ran second in the Belmont Stakes at 16-1 odds. He subsequently won the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes. The following year he won the Whitney, the Oaklawn Handicap and the Strub. He finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2002 and 2003, and was second in the Dubai World Cup.

Third-ranked Came Home ran fifth in the Derby but won the Swaps, the Affirmed, and the 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic later in the year.

Fourth-ranked Perfect Drift ran third in the Kentucky Derby and tailed off later, only to come back and defeat Mineshaft in the Stephen Foster the following year, as well as winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup, Kentucky Cup Classic and the Washington Park Handicap.

Second-ranked Harlan’s Holiday earned over $3 million dollars before being retired.

Top-ranked Point Given ran fifth in a Kentucky Derby that no one will ever be able to explain. He then reeled off four consecutive Grade I wins: Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, Travers.

Second-ranked Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby. He was ranked number one in our separate Performance Points Only category, which does not utilize any pedigree-related factors.

Third-ranked Congaree finished third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, was still running at age six, and earned over $3.2 million dollars including winning the Swaps, the 1 1/4 mile Hollywood Gold Cup and twice winning the Cigar Mile before being retired.

A strange year for the Profile. While he did not rank in the top four of our base Profile, the Total Points Category, Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus was number one in our Performance Points Only Category.

Top-ranked Cat Thief was third in the Kentucky Derby and later won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, paying $41.20.

Top-ranked BROTHER DEREK dead-heated for fourth with JAZIL, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four. Second and third finishers BLUEGRASS CAT and STEPPENWOLFER ranked 10th and 18th, respectively, in the Downey Profile.

The Downey Profile uses a Base Profile, called the Total Points Category, composed of both performance and pedigree factors. There is a backup Profile, called the Performance Points Only Category, which eliminates all pedigree factors and employs only performance factors.

The fourth rule of play we recommended prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby stated:

"Examine horses that jump in rank from the Total Points Category  to the Performance Points Only Category.  In 2004, Limehouse did just that, jumping from mid-pack in Total Points to a number 5 Ranking in Performance Points. He rounded out the superfecta with a fourth place finish at odds of 41-1."

In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

The Downey Profile ranked Afleet Alex number one in both categories. He was our pick to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby. He finished third, beaten one length, then went on to crush his opponents in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Closing Argument finished second in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. He was sent off by bettors at 71-1 odds. Likewise, he did not figure in the Downey Profile.

The 2005 Kentucky Derby exacta paid $9,814,80, the trifecta $133,134.80. Yours truly had Afleet Alex and Giacomo all over his tickets but did not pair up either of those two with Closing Argument.

Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. Not to boast, but we called the way the race would play out, with Smarty laying just off Lion Heart's speed, taking the lead near the top of the stretch, and racing a straight line to the wire.

Both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, which paid $97.00.

The Beyer speed ratings are published by the Daily Racing Form and were created by Andrew Beyer, the noted turf writer. The Beyer ratings were first applied to Kentucky Derby starters in 1992.

The Beyer factor is this: the horse ran at least a 100 Beyer figure in each of its final two starts before the Derby.

From 1992 through 2004, eight winners and a total of only 60 starters had the Beyer factor; five winners and a total of 164 starters did not. The ratio of winners to starters with the factor over that time frame was 4.37 times greater than the ratio of winners to starters without the factor. The weight assigned to the Beyer factor in 2005 was 4.37.