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Horse Racing at The Downey Profile® Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown Coverage 

Wynn Odds Vs. Derby Future Wager Pool 1

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2/15/2012
8:29 am

By Dick Downey
Updated Feb. 15, 2012 @ 8:36 a.m. ET

The release yesterday by Wynn Casino of its most recent online list of Kentucky Derby horse future odds spurred us to do a comparison to final odds in Churchill Downs' Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1, which closed only two days earlier.

Our findings are that in 12 out of 23 cases, players could have gotten better odds in Pool 1 -- most often significantly better odds.

In 11 cases, Wynn offered better odds yesterday than those in place at the close of Pool 1 two days earlier -- but not by much: Creative Cause (20-1 vs. 17-1), El Padrino (18-1 vs. 16-1), Empire Way (40-1 vs. 33-1), Gemologist (25-1 vs. 22-1), I'll Have Another (30-1 vs. 29-1), Junebugred (100-1 vs. 58-1), Mr.Bowling (100-1 vs. 85-1), Out of Bounds (25-1 vs. 23-1), Sabercat (35-1 vs. 34-1), Take Charge Indy (45-1 vs. 42-1) and Union Rags (8-1 vs. 7-1).

"When the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager was offered in 1999, I recall telling the DRF's Marty McGee that 'pari-mutuels and futures mix like oil and water,' famed oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough told The Downey Profile. "But a few years ago I began to rethink the pari-mutuel future bet pools. They often offer value to players, and with this latest win pool of nearly a half-million dollars, you could stand to make a decent wager. At a 16% takeout it approximates to less than "3/4 points" a runner, considerably better than most traditional bookmakers."
 
Roxborough is an admirer of John Avello, oddsmaker at Wynn's, saying, "My hat is off to the Wynn's Johnny Avello. He must make prices on hundreds of horses and constantly has professional bettors and sharps trying to outwit him 24 hours a day. No easy task."

FULL COMPARISON CHART

# Horse Future Wager ML Future Wager Odds Wynn Odds
1 Algorithms 8-1 12-1 10-1
2 Alpha 20-1 19-1 11-1
3 Battle Hardened 30-1 46-1 30-1
4 Creative Cause 20-1 17-1 20-1
5 Discreet Dancer 15-1 30-1 20-1
6 Dullahan 20-1 40-1 20-1
7 El Padrino 20-1 16-1 18-1
8 Empire Way 50-1 33-1 40-1
9 Ever So Lucky 20-1 55-1 25-1
10 Fed Biz 20-1 21-1 20-1
11 Gemologist 20-1 22-1 25-1
12 Hansen 12-1 26-1 14-1
13 I’ll Have Another 20-1 29-1 30-1
14 Junebugred 50-1 58-1 100-1
15 Liaison 20-1 56-1 20-1
16 Longview Drive 50-1 141-1 125-1
17 Midnight Transfer 50-1 67-1 50-1
18 Mr. Bowling 50-1 85-1 100-1
19 Out of Bounds 20-1 23-1 25-1
20 Rousing Sermon 30-1 71-1 30-1
21 Sabercat 30-1 34-1 35-1
22 Take Charge Indy 30-1 42-1 45-1
23 Union Rags 10-1 7-1 8-1
24 All Other 3YO’s 9-5 3-2 N/A
 

 


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