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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®

 

DICK'S PICKS KD

Dick Downey's Free Selections for Kentucky Downs
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2017 Daily Results

Day 5. Day 5 yielded better, but not spectacular, results for Dick's Picks even though only 60% of winners came from the top four betting interests. From $198.00 in wagers, there was a $208.60 return for a profit of $10.60. All the payoffs came from exacta bets. Selections showed seven winners with one right on top; however, in some cases selections were more than four deep in total with only one or two horses picked right on top. Overall, it was not a profitable meet for Dick's Picks. I think that wet soil at Kentucky Downs makes results less predictable.

Day 4. The national average for winners coming from the top four betting favorites is 80%, so when a card yields only 50% in that category, I'm not going to have a very good day. That's what happened today. I had five winners in my overall selections, with one right on top, but from total wagers of $212.00, the return was $123.40 for a loss of $88.60. In two of the 10 races I selected one horse to bet win-show, and both of them finished second. From the other eight races, my exacta wagers yield three winning tickets, but two of those tickets were short prices.

Day 3. Dick's Picks produced nine of the 10 winners. One of them was right on top, five second choices won, and two fourth choices won.

The bets continue to focus on exactas, but in two races the bet was only to win or win-show on a single horse. The two single-horse bets cost $28 and yielded zero. The $2 exacta boxes, which went four deep, cost $192 and yielded $226.20, for an overall net of $6.20. Selections yielded five exactas. We had a $20 horse win the fourth race, but the best the remaining picks could do was to run third. That made a big difference in our day. On to day 4.
 

Day 2. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, and so I'll just say that my day 2 selections turned out far from stellar. The ground retained more moisture than I anticipated, and the result was not kind to horses with good early speed. It was a tough day for good form. I had only three winners from my overall selections and none right on top.Average win payoff for the day was $22.78, and three races produced win payoffs of $31.40, $35.40 and $92.20. Only one actual favorite won, although there was one other winner that showed up as co-favorite on the board. The amounts of my betting recommendations were modest, and two races did yield payoffs, so the loss for the day was not as bad as the selections were, down $83.00.

Day 1. Dick's Picks produced six winners, with three of them right on top. One second choice won and two third choices won. The bets continue to focus on exactas as in previous years, but in two races the bet was only win-show on a single horse.

The two single-horse bets cost $36 and yielded $81.60. The exacta boxes, which went either three or four deep, cost $150 and yielded zilch. Net for the day was a negative $104.40. For the exacta bets, it was one of those days which we all have had, but I am having too many of them to make sense. From seven bets, my picks ran 1-3, 1-3-4, and 2-3-4 in three races. In the latter one, I used only three horses. In the other two, I was edged out of second place at the wire both times.

Ironically, in race 7 where I bet only one horse, my four selections ran 1-2-3-4, yielding a $2 exacta payoff of $33.40, $1 trifecta payoff of $140.70 and a $1 superfecta payoff of $809.90. That's the way the cookie crumbles.

2017 Dick's Picks Details
Selections for Day 5: Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017
Selections for Day 4: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2017
Selections for Day 3: Saturday, Sept. 9, 2017
Selections for Day 2: Thursday, Sept. 7, 2017
Selections for Day 1: Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2017

 

2016 Daily Results

Summary. From 50 races, Dick's Picks named the winner 36 times (72 percent), with the winner right on top 19 times (38 percent). Exactas and single-horse selections paid more than they cost two days, cost more than they paid two days, and we broke even one day. Losses outpaced gains overall, which was really frustrating on day 3 when we had seven winners, six of them right on top, but only hit two low-paying exactas. We are very proud of the right-on-top win rate in a meet when field size averaged virtually 11 horses per race.

Day 5. Dick's picks hit three exactas but had the misfortune of running either 1-3-4, 2-3-4 or 2-3 six times, what my friend Micah Zajic calls the "not-so-exacta". From $218.00 in wagers, the return was $140.20. We had five winners named in selections, with two right on top. Selections yielded two trifectas paying $47.80 and $99.60 on a $1 wager and one superfecta that paid $429.30 on a $1 wager.

Day 4. Dick's Picks had the winner in nine of 10 races in the selections, with five of them right on top, including both of the stakes winners, two in the second row, one in the third row and one in the fourth row. From nine races with exacta bets, four were hit, and we had the winner in one race we singled.  Those wagers totaled $228, and payoffs amounted to $257.40. The picks also yielded $1 trifecta payoffs in races 3, 6 and 7 in the amounts of $236.80, $75.80 and $31.30.

Day 3. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. From 10 races, Dick's Picks had six winners right on top of selections and a seventh winner that was a second choice, so what could go wrong? We only hit two low-paying exactas. From exacta wagers totaling $210, the return was only $47.20. Race 3's four selections yielded a $1 trifecta payoff of $60.60 and a $1 superfecta payoff of $253.50. On to day 4.

Day 2. From 10 races, Dick's Picks yielded four exactas, one trifecta and one superfecta. Payoffs on $2 exacta boxes, which is the focus, totaled $209.60 from bets amounting to $182.00. In race 6 we recommended a $4 win-$8 show bet on Heuston. He was a late scratch, and the third choice was also scratched. The top choice that remained was U.S. Citizen, and he won, paying $26 on the bet. Totals were thus $194 in wagers with a return of $235.60. The five picks in Race 1 were 4-11-6-8-1, and the result was 4-6-8-11-1. The $1 trifecta paid $46.80 and the $1 superfecta paid $184.30.

Selections produced eight winners with three right on top, one second choice, two third choices and two fourth choices. Races 9 and 10 were a little frustrating because we had the winners that paid $26.60 and $22.20 but didn't hit the exacta either time. In race 9, we had the first and fourth runners, and in race 10 we had the first and third runners, beaten a neck for second.

Day 1. From 10 races, Dick's Picks yielded four exactas, three trifectas and two superfectas. Payoffs on $2 exacta boxes, which is the focus, totaled $171.20 from bets amounting to $174.00. In addition to the winning exactas: The four picks in Race 3 yielded a $1 trifecta payoff of $165.50. The four picks in Race 7 yielded a $1 superfecta payoff of $233.00 and a $1 trifecta payoff of $82.70. In Race 10, won by the 8-5 favorite, Dick's Picks used five horses that produced a $1 superfecta payoff of $1,470.00 and a $1 trifecta payoff of $188.80. Selections produced seven winners with three right on top, one second choice, two third choices and one fourth choice.

2016 Dick's Picks Details
Selections for Day 5: Thursday, Sept, 15, 2016
Seletions for Day 4: Sunday, Sept. 11, 2016
Selections for Day 3: Saturday, Sept. 10, 1016
Selections for Day 2: Thursday, Sept. 8, 2016
Selections for Day 1: Saturday, Sept. 3, 2016

 

 

2015 Daily Results

Day 5. It was a fun but frustrating day. Form didn't hold in many instances. For example, only one favorite won the first 11 races while two favorites finished last. Horses in my selections that looked like potential winners kept getting run down on a day when I expected early speed to be king, and inside posts didn't do all that well on a day when I thought they would. I hit one exacta that paid $42 from $222 in bets, a loss of $180. What drives me crazy is that in nine other races we ran 1-3, 2-3, 2-3-4, 1-3-4 or had the winner without others running well. The racing was great regardless, and I'm already looking forward to next year.

Day 4. Dick's Picks broke well, faltered, came again but then faded in the late going. From 13 races, we had six exactas. After a good two-win start, we lost four in a row, then won three straight. Just when we were getting hot again, races 10 and 11 were won by 61-1 and 50-1 horses, and that was about it. We had nine winners in our selections, three of them right on top. Exacta wagers cost $292.00 and we got $186.80 back for a loss of $105.20.

Day 3. It was a pretty good day; Dick's Picks hit six exactas from 10 races. Wagers totaled $240 for a return of $357 and a profit of $117.00. Dick's Picks included eight of the 10 winners, two of them right on top. A highlight was race 7 when Closing Bell was singled, and selections yielded a superfecta that returned $538.50 on a $1 bet..

Day 2. The day was shortened to only two races because track conditions were unsafe after rain. Dick's Picks had both winners right on top. After scratches, only one selection was left in race 1, so I bet it to win. Race 2 was a $2 exacta key that cost $8.00, and selections ran 1/3/4. With a $2 win bet on race one and a $2 exacta key in race 2, the result was wagers costing $10 and a return of $6.20, leading to a loss of $3.80.

Day 1. This day was frustrating because Dick's Picks had 7 of 10 winners in the selections, with three of them right on top and three of them second on the list, but only two exactas came in. Total exacta wagers of $184 yielded only $47.40 in winnings, resulting in a loss of $137.60. There were three races where selections finished 1/3, 1/3/4 and 2/3/4, and some of those horses were high odds, including a winner named Surgical Strike that paid $41.20. We'll turn the page and live to fight another day.

2015 Dick's Picks Details
Selections for Day 5: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2015
Selections for Day 4: Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2015
Selections for Day 3: Monday, Sept. 14, 2015
Selections for Day 2: Thursday, Sept. 10, 2015
Selections for Day 1: Saturday, Sept. 5, 2015

 

How Dick's Picks fared during the 2014 meet

Dick's Picks had a strong return on investment during the 2014 Kentucky Downs meet. From a total of $988.00 in wagers, the payback was $1,310.60 for a profit of $322.60, a return on investment of 32.65%.

2014 Daily Results

All bets are $2 exacta boxes unless indicated otherwise at Dick's Picks. Kentucky Downs had the lowest exacta takeout in the nation.

On Day 1, bets made as recommended at Dick's Picks cost $192.00 and yielded $532.20 for a profit of $340.20. Dick's Picks hit six exactas.

On Day 2, Dick's Picks yielded a loss of $43.60 despite hitting five exactas. Most were short-priced. There was a return of $160.40 from bets totaling $204.00.

On Day 3, Dick's Picks had five right-on-top winners, but his other selections in those races kept running third or fourth, or third AND fourth in a couple of cases. Bets made as recommended at Dick's Picks yielded a loss of $98.00 -- $192.00 bet with a return of $94.00. At this point, we were still a couple of hundred bucks ahead for the meet.

On Day 4, Dick's Picks again had five right-on-top winners and seven of 10 winners in his overall selections. Four exactas came homeIn the first two races, selections ran 1-3-4. There was a $41.80 profit on the day -- $229.80 returned from wagers of $188.00.

On Day 5, Dick's Picks had six right-on-top winners and hit six exactas. Overall selections yielded eight winners. Exacta bets made as recommended at Dick's Picks yielded a profit of $82.20 -- $212.00 bet with a return of $294.20.

2014 Dick's Picks Details
Selections for Day 5: Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2014
Selections for Day 4; Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2014
Selections for Day 3: Saturday, Sept. 13, 2014
Selections for Day 2: Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2014
Selections for Day 1: Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014

 

 

How Dick's Picks fared during the 2013 meet

From total wagers of $1,008, Dick's Picks returned $1,056.80, a net gain of $48.80, or 4.8%.

2013 Daily Results

All bets are $2 exacta boxes unless otherwise noted at Dick Picks.

On day 5, Dick's Picks wagered $222.00 in $2 exacta bets, returning $321.80 for a net gain of $99.20. Seven exactas were hit, and selections ran 1-3 once.

On day 4, Dick's Picks wagered $256.00 in $2 exacta bets, returning $234.20 for a net loss of $21.80. We hit five exactas, and selections ran 2-3 twice and 2-3-4 once.

On day 3, Dick's Picks hit five exactas but incurred a loss of $90.40 when $230 wagered returned 139.60. Three of those five exactas were short-priced. In three other races, Dick's Picks ran 1-3. We went five deep in race 4, but we missed and the exacta returned $619.60 on a $2 wager.

On day 2, Dick's Picks netted a loss of $43.40 from $84.00 wagered, returning $40.60. It was a frustrating day because selections ran onto the board, just not 1-2, except for the second race.

On day 1, Dick's Picks netted $104.60 profit off of wagers totaling $216.00 that returned 320.60.

2013 Dick's Picks Details
Selections for Day 5: Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2013
Selections for Day 4: Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2013
Selections for Day 3: Saturday, Sept. 14, 2013
Selections for Day 2: Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2013
Selections for Day 1: Saturday, Sept. 7, 2013

 

 

How Dick's Picks Fared at Kentucky Downs in 2012

Link to Dick's Picks for Day 5, Wednesday, Sept. 19, 2012
Link to Dick's Picks for Day 4, Saturday, Sept. 15, 2012
Link to Dick's Picks for Day 3, Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2012
Link to Dick's Picks for Day 2, Monday, Sept. 10, 2012
Link to Dick's Picks for Day 1, Saturday, Sept. 8, 2012

 

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