The Downey Profile®

SUBSCRIBERS: The Downey Profile Rankings Were Updated on Friday.

To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on the left sidebar, or click here.
To sign in to the Subscription Page, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here.
To read about The Downey Profile, click here.

The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office.

HOME PAGE MENU: Racing News Bloodhorse.com Mission Statement Handicapping Road Work
Click to go. Click "back" to return.

Entire web site menu at left sidebar

RACING NEWS
Looking Good Worth Watching Just In Case Road to the Kentucky Derby Dick's Picks The Commish Subscribe Sign In

SCRATCH--Swag Daddy out of Withers w/ foot problem.
How Do I Win added to Dick's Picks, Alpha Now on Top.

Subscriber Notice
We have updated The Downey Profile Rankings on our subcription page.

2012 Dual Qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby
The Experimental Free Handicap (EFH) was released today, so it's time to take a look at the 2012 Dual Qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby.

Dick's Picks: Sam F. Davis Full of Winning Angles
The Grade III Sam F. Davis looks like a wide-open affair going in, so let's see if we can winnow out some angles.

Dick's Picks: Might Take Some Swagger
The Grade III Withers Stakes adds spice to the dead-of-winter Triple Crown Trail in New York. In the spirit of things, Downey looks for a horse to upset Alpha.

Commish: Robert B. Lewis More Than A Two-Horse Race
It seems like yesterday when this race starting taking shape, and right from the get-go, it looked like a two-horse race. But hold on, partner. There’s plenty of talented prospects in the wild, wild, west these days.

Commish: WEBN Stakes: Long Road to Derby from Here
It is generally hard for me to get too excited about some of the top prospects in this years’ running of the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park, but hey, you never know. Even a long road to Churchill is still a road.

Mr. Prankster Seeks Second-Leg Win in WEBN Stakes
Mr. Prankster will try for his second stakes win in a row when he lines up for the WEBN Stakes Saturday at Turfway.

Fat Or Fit? Opinions May Vary
Assistant trainer Heather Craig says she'll be sending out a fit horse in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes, so she doesn’t care if anyone thinks he looks fat.
Entry Chart, Morning Line, Horse Profiles

Experimental Free Handicap Topped by Hansen, Union Rags
Hansen and Union Rags have received the high weight assignment of 126 pounds on The Jockey Club’s 2011 Experimental Free Handicap
Colts and Geldings: Index to Experimental Free Handicap
Fillies: Index to Experimental Free Handicap

Robert B. Lewis Pits Baffert vs. Hollendorfer
Bob Baffert sends two into the Grade II Robert B. Lewis on Saturday -- an established star and a horse that could be on the serious improve -- while Jerry Hollendorfer tries for a third time to beat Baffert's star.
Entry Chart, Morning Line, Complete Horse Profiles, PP's

Several to Test Withers Waters Against Alpa
On Saturday at Aqueduct, seven starters will try each other out in the Grade III Withers Stakes, a newly-installed fixture in the Winter meeting.
Entry Chart, Morning Line, PP's, Horse Profiles

Pletcher Duo Pointed to Hutcheson
Todd Pletcher has eight nominated for the Grade II Hutcheson Stakes on Feb. 11, with two likely to run.

Motor City Returns to Worktab
After three months away from the races and the worktab, Motor City breezed Tuesday at Palm Meadows.

War of the Words
The war of words over casino gambling in Kentucky between Steve Beshear and David Williams is reported in a non-partisan manner by Greg Hall at the Louisville Courier-Journal. In the opinion of The Downey Profile, Williams sounds infantile. Meanwhile, the Lexington Herald-Leader appears to have been used by Williams.

Downey in NTRA Poll
Recently, Dick Downey was invited to vote in the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls. The NTRA will launch a newly designed and dedicated Poll website allowing transparency and fan interaction, via a Fan Index and social platforms. The polls will be a weekly feature of the NTRA, and The Downey Profile will carry results. The start date of the polls is to be announced.

BLOODHORSE.COM

Our Derby Trail race handicapping previews are featured weekly at the Bloodhorse.com Triple Crown Mania Channel.

On our site, the previews are at Dick's Picks and the page of Greg "The Commish" Johnson.

Apart from race handicapping, look for stories about Kentucky Derby theory and issues.

MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on left sidebar, or click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and an order confirmation email. If your server blocks it, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com. Then view the Membership Page by clicking the Sign In button, also on the left sidebar.

To sign in to the Subscription Page, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here.

A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile focuses on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. This product will be online after the Kentucky Derby.

A Little About Us

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for Breeders' Cup. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the eighth consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.

While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile--updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on over two dozen Kentucky Derby prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.

HANDICAPPING

This Weekend
Dick's Picks tries to decipher the Grade III Withers Stakes and the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes. Selections are posted.

The Commish tackles the high-level Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park. Selections are posted.

To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on the left sidebar, or click here.

To sign in, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here.
Trouble with your username or password? Write us at: thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com

ROAD WORK

Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf or an off track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Hollywood Park, Keeneland, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park and Woodbine works are on synthetic track except when noted.

On Feb. 3, Blingo worked six in 1:13.80 (6/7) at HOL.
On Feb. 3, Consulado worked five in :59.00 (1/34) at HOL.
On Feb. 3, Night Tide worked six in 1:12.80 (2/22) at SA.
On Feb. 3, Souper Speedy breezed four in :52.20 (36/38) at PMM.
On Feb. 3, Stat breezed five in 1:00.60 (3/12) at PMM.

On Feb. 2, Drill worked four in :49.20 (16/28) at SA.
On Feb. 2, Hard Not To Like breezed three in :39.00 (4/4) at PAY.
On Feb. 2, Exfactor breezed four in :49.20 (8/21) at FG.
On Feb. 2, Right To Vote breezed three in :35.60 (1/6) at PMM.
On Feb. 2, Russian Greek worked six in 1:16.40 (2/3) at GG.

On Feb. 1, Gun Boat worked four in :49.20 (12/19) at HOL.
On Feb. 1, Longview Drive worked five in 1:00.40 (3/7) at SA.
On Feb. 1, Swag Daddy breezed four in :50.00 (1/3) at AQU.

On Jan. 31, Ancient Rome breezed five in 1:01.00 (3/11) at PMM.
On Jan. 31, Big Wednesday breezed four in :51.60 (24/38) at OP.
On Jan. 31, Liaison worked four in :48.00 (2/7) at SA.
On Jan. 31, Motor City breezed four in :49.60 (16/31) at PMM.
On Jan. 31, Optimizer breezed six in 1:15.20 (1/2) at OP.
On Jan. 31, Spin Out breezed four from the gate in :47.80 (2/30) at PMM.
On Jan. 31, Union Rags breezed five in 1:02.60 (5/11) at PMM.

On Jan. 30, Alpha breezed five on the training track in 1:01.00 (1/14) at BEL.
On Jan. 30, Discreet Dancer breezed five in 1:02.40 (6/16) at PMM.
On Jan. 30, Ever So Lucky worked five in :59.20 (1/4) at GP.
On Jan. 30, Hierro worked three in :38.80 (9/12) at SA.
On Jan. 30, King And Crusader breezed four in :48.20 (3/15) at AQU.
On Jan. 30, Our Entourage breezed five in 1:02.40 (7/16) at PMM.
On Jan. 30, Out Of Bounds worked five in 1:00.60 (6/19) at HOL.
On Jan. 30, Phantom Fury breezed five in 1:04.20 (4/5) at TP.
On Jan. 30, Shared Property breezed four in :51.60 (41/44) at FG.
On Jan. 30, Three Vases worked six in 1:13.80 (4/8) at SA.
On Jan. 30, Z Dager breezed four in :52.60 (43/44) at FG.

On Jan. 29, Big Blue Nation breezed five in 1:02.80 (27/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 29, Brigand worked six in 1:11.40 (1/21) at SA.
On Jan. 29, Cahill Chrome worked four in :51.20 (69/85) at GG.
On Jan. 29, Chalybeate Springs breezed five in 1:01.00 (1/36) at OP.
On Jan. 29, Ecabroni breezed four in :48.00 (4/40) at PMM.
On Jan. 29, Ez Effort worked four in :47.00 (4/61) at SA.
On Jan. 29, How Do I Win breezed four on the training track in :49.00 (44/92) at BEL.
On Jan. 29, Neck 'n Neck breezed five in 1:01.60 (12/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 29, Rousing Sermon worked four in :47.40 (6/61) at SA.
On Jan. 29, Speightscity breezed five on the training track in 1:00.60 (4/28) at BEL.
On Jan. 29, Spring Hill Farm breezed four in :48.00 (4/40) at PMM.
On Jan. 29, Thunder Moccasin breezed four in :48.80 (18/40) at PMM.
On Jan. 29, Twelve Hundred breezed five in 1:01.00 (1/8) at HAW.

On Jan. 28, Alsvid breezed four in :49.20 (2/19) at SUN.
On Jan. 28, Atigun breezed four in :49.80 (18/92) at OP.
On Jan. 28, Burning Time breezed four in :50.20 (43/86) at CRC.
On Jan. 28, Chips All In worked seven in 1:29.00 (4/4) at SA.
On Jan. 28, Consulado breezed five in :59.00 (2/48) at HOL.
On Jan. 28, Creative Cause worked six in 1:11.60 (1/20) at HOL.
On Jan. 28, Currency Swap breezed three in :36.60 (5/14) at GP.
On Jan. 28, Done Talking breezed five in 1:00.60 (1/20) at LRL.
On Jan. 28, Fed Biz worked six in 1:12.80 (3/16) at SA.
On Jan. 28, King Kid worked five in :59.80 (3/36) at GP.
On Jan. 28, Mr. Prankster breezed five in 1:00.40 (1/22) at TP.
On Jan. 28, Najjaar breezed five in 1:04.60 (45/63) at OP.
On Jan. 28, No Spin breezed six in 1:14.40 (1/3) at OP.
On Jan. 28, Pee H Dee breezed five in 1:01.20 (2/63) at OP.
On Jan. 28, Prospective breezed five in 1:03.00 (31/33) at PMM.
On Jan. 28, Reveron breezed four in :52.00 (72/86) at CRC.
On Jan. 28, Ring It Up breezed five in 1:01.20 (2/63) at OP.
On Jan. 28, Secret Circle worked five in :58.60 (1/61) at SA.
On Jan. 28, State Of Play breezed four in :48.60 (5/56) at TAM.
On Jan. 28, Ted's Folly breezed five in 1:01.60 (13/66) at FG.
On Jan. 28, Unbridled Minister breezed five in 1:01.80 (15/36) at GP.
On Jan. 28, Unbridled's Note worked five in :59.60 (6/61) at SA.

On Jan. 27, Groovin' Solo worked 5f MT ft in :58.40 H (1/68) at SA.
On Jan. 27, I'll Have Another worked seven in 1:26.00 (1/2) at HOL.
On Jan. 27, Isn't He Clever worked five in 1:00.80 (1/9) at SUN.
On Jan. 27, Sky Kingdom worked five in :58.40 (1/67) at SA.
On Jan. 27, Stat breezed five in 1:02.40 (4/8) at PMM.
On Jan. 27, Trinniberg breezed five in 1:03.40 (2/10) at CRC.

On Jan. 26, Blingo worked five in 1:00.80 (4/34) at HOL.
On Jan. 26, Liaison worked six in 1:11.80 (1/18) at SA.
On Jan. 26, Longview Drive worked six in 1:13.20 (4/18) at SA.
On Jan. 26, Night Tide worked five in 1:00.20 (15/40) at SA.
On Jan. 26, Souper Speedy breezed three in :37.20 (3/6) at PMM.
On Jan. 26, Swag Daddy breezed six in 1:13.80 (2/2) at AQU.

On Jan. 25, Big Wednesday breezed five on a muddy track in 1:02.80 (2/19) at OP.
On Jan. 25, Gun Boat worked three in :36.20 (2/13) at HOL.

On Jan. 24, Ancient Rome breezed four in :49.80 (16/31) at PMM.
On Jan. 24, Bluedacious breezed four in :48.00 (3/31) at PMM.
On Jan. 24, Optimizer breezed five in 1:03.20 (15/25) at OP.
On Jan. 24, Take Charge Indy breezed five in :59.60 (1/28) at PMM.
On Jan. 24, Tiz Tee Time worked five in :59.00 (1/5) at KEE.
On Jan. 24, Union Rags breezed five in 1:00.80 (2/28) at PMM.

On Jan. 23, Algorithms breezed five in 1:02.00 (1/10) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Brigand worked five in 1:00.20 (1/25) at HOL.
On Jan. 23, Discreet Dancer breezed four in :50.80 (29/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, El Padrino breezed five in 1:02.60 (3/10) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Neck 'n Neck breezed five in 1:03.00 (6/10) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Our Entourage breezed four in :48.60 (5/36) at PMM.
On Jan. 23, Out Of Bounds worked four in :48.40 (2/19) at HOL.
On Jan. 23, Rousing Sermon worked seven in 1:26.80 (1/1) at SA.
On Jan. 23, Spin Out breezed four in :48.00 (1/36) at PMM.

On Jan. 22, Big Blue Nation breezed five in 1:01.80 (17/34) at PMM.
On Jan. 22, Fed Biz worked five in 1:01.00 (9/32) at HOL.
On Jan. 22, Hansen worked five in :59.80 (3/39) at GP.
On Jan. 22, Margano breezed four in :48.80 (10/26) at GP.
On Jan. 22, World Renowned worked six in 1:13.00 (5/8) at SA.

On Jan. 21, Alsvid breezed three in :36.20 (4/19) at SUN.
On Jan. 21, Casual Trick breezed four in :47.20 (3/73) at PMM.
On Jan. 21, Consortium breezed five in 1:01.20 (6/29) at PMM.
On Jan. 21, Managed Account breezed three in :38.00 (11/17) at GP.
On Jan. 21, Mr. Prankster breezed four in :50.80 (10/10) at TP.
On Jan. 21, Russian Greek worked four in :50.20 (23/31) at GG.
On Jan. 21, State Of Play breezed six in 1:14.40 (3/4) at TAM.
On Jan. 21, State Of Play breezed six in 1:14.40 (3/4) at TAM.
On Jan. 21, Unbridled Minister breezed four in :49.60 (26/59) at GP.

On Jan. 20, Creative Cause worked six in 1:14.00 (5/16) at HOL.
On Jan. 20, Done Talking breezed four in :49.00 (10/39) at LRL.
On Jan. 20, Fort Loudon breezed five in 1:01.80 (2/6) at CRC.
On Jan. 20, Isn't He Clever breezed five in 1:01.40 (4/22) at SUN.
On Jan. 20, Longview Drive worked five in 1:01.00 (26/73) at SA.
On Jan. 20, Real Power breezed five in 1:03.00 (24/38) at FG.
On Jan. 20, Stat breezed five in 1:02.20 (9/14) at PMM.
On Jan. 20, Swag Daddy breezed five in 1:01.20 (4/9) at AQU.
On Jan. 20, Three Vases worked five in 1:02.40 (55/73) at SA.

On Jan. 19, I'll Have Another worked seven in 1:27.00 (1/2) at HOL.
On Jan. 19, Liaison worked six in 1:11.00 (1/16) at SA.
On Jan. 19, Secret Circle worked five in :59.40 (3/32) at SA.
On Jan. 19, Speightscity breezed five on the training track in 1:02.20 (1/6) at BEL.