Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®
SUBSCRIBER NOTICES: Kentucky Derby Subscription Page: Added Magnum Moon and Gronkowski to The Downey Profile rankings. Segment 7 NOTES are posted, analyzing the Rebel Stakes and Jeff Ruby Steaks outcomes with a breakdown of the fractional times of the top finishers as always. Derby Trail Subscription Page: Dick's Picks for the Louisiana Derby are posted. Greg "The Commish" Johnson has posted selections for the Sunland Derby. Everything is up to date on Our Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case pages, with profiles of over 100 horses, following the March 17 races. Dick's Picks for the Rebel Stakes fared well. For the Jeff Ruby Steaks, Downey & Commish teamed up with dueling picks that fared well.
In 2018, we have two Subscription Pages, the same format used in 2017: (1) The tried and true Kentucky Derby Subscription, which include the Preakness and Belmont Stakes at no extra charge, and (2) The Derby Trail Subscription Page. For fuller descriptions, please click either of the two links immediately below and/or scroll down. Further, to read in detail about The Downey Profile, click here. The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013
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Kentucky Derby Leaderboard March 17
Continue to More Workouts
Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted
March 23, Biblical five in 1.03:45 Breezing 3/6 at PBD
March 23, Bobby's Wicked One four in 47:80 Breezing 2/56 at FG
March 23, Enticed four in 49:60 Breezing 13/36 at PMM
March 23, Speed Franco five in 1.00:50 Breezing 1/14 at GPW
March 23, Strike Power four in 47:87 Breezing 1/27 at GP
March 23, Telekinesis four in 49:00 Breezing 21/56 at FG
March 22, Copper Bullet five in 1.01:60 Breezing 7/18 at FG
March 22, Gotta Go five in 1.00:50 Breezing 1/10 at PMM
March 21, Ebben four in 49:20 Breezing 14/39 at FG
March 20, Aquila four in 49:20 Handily 61/103 at SA
March 20, Coltandmississippi four in 50.21 Breezing training track 18/36 at BEL
March 20, Greyvitos six in 1.14:40 Handily 1/2 at DMR
March 20, Justify four in 46:40 Handily 1/103 at SA
March 20, Mask five in 1.00:40 Handily 9/65 at SA
March 20, McKinzie four in 47:80 Handily 10/103 at SA
March 20, Nero five in 1.00:20 Handily 7/65 at SA
March 20, Peace three in 36:60 Handily 6/36 at SA
March 20, Sea Foam five in 1.03:40 Breezing 5/11 at PAY
March 19, Gotta Go four in 49:75 Breezing 7/17 at PMM
March 19, Mississippi five in 1.00:75 Breezing 1/5 at PMM
March 19, New York Central four in 50:80 Breezing muddy track 4/12 at OP
March 19, Restoring Hope five in 1.00:40 Handily 21/86 at SA
March 19, Retirement Fund four in 50:80 Breezing 24/32 at FG
March 19, Snapper Sinclair four in 49:60 Breezing 10/32 at FG
March 18, Bravazo five in 59:60 Breezing 1/26 at OP
March 18, Choo Choo six in 1.18:20 Handily 16/16 at SA
March 18, Ezmosh four in 48:60 Breezing 11/54 at OP
March 18, He Hate Me five in 1.01:00 Handily 2/17 at LRL
March 18, Hollywood Star five in 59:49 Breezing 1/15 at GP
March 18, Instilled Regard six in 1.17:80 Handily 15/16 at SA
March 18, Kanthaka five in 47:40 Handily 5/101 at SA
March 18, Reride five in 1.00:60 Breezing 3/16 at FG
March 18, Shivermetimbers four in 47:00 Handily 2/101 at SA
March 17, Analyze It five in 1.01:20 Breezing firm turf 7/14 at PMM
March 17, All Out Blitz five in 58:40 Handily 1/12 at SA
March 17, Audible five in 1.01:50 Breezing 3/10 at PBD
March 17, Biblical four in 50:25 Breezing 10/29 at PBD
March 17, Catholic Boy five in 1:00.00 (1/2) at Bridlewood Farm
March 17, Engage four in 48:00 Breezing 3/77 at PMM
March 17, Evaluator five in 1.03:65 Breezing 16/24 at GP
March 17, Exclamation Point four in 49:80 Breezing 54/88 at OP
March 17, Good Magic four in 48:90 Breezing 14/77 at PMM
March 17, Impact Player four in 50:08 Breezing 5/29 at PBD
March 17, Justaholic four in 48:00 Breezing 3/42 at TAM
March 17, Marconi four in 50:25 Breezing 10/29 at PBD
March 17, My Boy Jack five in 1.00:40 Handily 2/12 at SA
March 17, Noble Indy five in 1.00:77 Breezing 2/10 at PBD
March 17, Promises Fulfilled four in 48:16 Breezing 19/94 at GP
March 17, Runaway Ghost six in 1.15:20 Handily 2/2 at SUN
March 17, Seven Trumpets five in 1.02:67 Breezing 43/56 at GP
March 17, Shane Zain four in 47:40 Breezing 2/88 at OP
March 17, Slot four in 50:20 Breezing 8/29 at PBD
March 17, Soutache five in : 1.00:55 Breezing 14/56 at GP
March 17, Speed Franco five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/14 at GPW
March 17, Storm Runner five in 1.00:92 Breezing 22/56 at GP
March 17, Supreme Aura four in 49:00 Breezing 30/91 at FG
March 16, Bobby's Wicked One five in 1.01:80 Breezing 18/35 at FG
March 16, Clever Mind five in 1.01:60 Breezing synthetic 3/6 at FAI
March 16, Copper Bullet five in 1.01:60 Breezing 13/35 at FG
March 16, Dark Templar four in 50:20 Breezing 74/99 at FG
March 16, Faversham five in : 1.00:40 Handily 3/18 at LRC
March 16, Fire When Ready five in 59:40 Handily 4/79 at SA
March 16, Givemeaminit four in 48:60 Breezing 21/99 at FG
March 16, He Takes Charge four in 48:45 Breezing 1/57 at PMM
March 16, Lone Sailor four in 48:00 Breezing 8/99 at FG
March 16, Mask four in 49:10 Breezing 8/57 at PMM
March 16, Strike Power four in 49:21 Breezing 19/30 at GP
March 15, Talent Scout four in 48:80 Handily 2/3 at LRC
March 14, Greyvitos six in 1.15:60 Handily 1/2 at DMR
March 13, Afleet Ascent four in 48:00 Handily 7/93 at SA
March 13, Ax Man five in 1.00:40 Handily 5/103 at SA
March 13, Choo Choo five in 1.03:00 Handily 73/103 at SA
March 13, Gotta Go four in 49:20 Breezing 4/12 at PMM
March 13, Heck Yeah four in 48:00 Handily 7/93 at SA
March 13, Higher Power four in 50:20 Breezing 13/25 at OP
March 13, Ike four in 48:20 Handily 15/93 at SA
March 13, Instilled Regard five in 1.03:40 Handily 77/103 at SA
March 13, Sea Foam, four in 49:40 Breezing 5/20 at PAY
March 13, Zulfikhar four in 48:00 Handily 7/93 at SA
March 12, Bravazo five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/8 at OP
March 12, New York Central five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/8 at OP
March 12, Restoring Hope five in 1.03:40 Handily 6/6 at SA
March 12, Retirement Fund five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/16 at FG
March 12, Snapper Sinclair five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/16 at FG
March 12, Sporting Chance four in 47:00 Breezing 1/21 at OP
March 12, Tenfold four in 50:60 Breezing 14/21 at OP
March 12, Title Ready four in 50:00 Breezing 9/21 at OP
March 12, Zing Zang four in 50:80 Breezing 17/21 at OP
March 11, Combatant four in 51:60 Breezing 42/52 at OP
March 11, Evaluator four in 49:43 Breezing 26/103 at BEL
March 11, Ezmosh four in 48:00 Breezing 2/52 at OP
March 11, He Hate Me four in 50:00 Breezing 26/32 at LRL
March 11, High North four in 48:60 Breezing 7/55 at FG
March 11, Justaholic four in 47:60 Breezing 1/51 at TAM
March 11, Mitole four in 51:60 Breezing 42/52 at OP
March 11, Reride four in 51:80 Breezing 48/55 at FG
March 11, Seven Trumpets five in 1.04:28 Breezing 13/13 at GP
March 11, Still Having Fun five in 1.12:20 Handily 1/2 at LRL
March 10, All Out Blitz five in 1.01:40 Handily 24/61 at SA
March 10, Analyze It four in 49:40 Breezing firm turf 24/37 at PMM
March 10, Audible four in 1.00:99 Breezing 3/12 at PBD
March 10, Bal Harbour four in 49:05 Breezing training track 18/93 at BEL
March 10, Catholic Boy five in 1.01:40 Breezing 1/1 at Bridlewood Farm (late reported work)
March 10, City Plan four in 49:20 Handily 16/54 at SA
March 10, Copper Bullet four in 50:00 Breezing 73/104 at FG
March 10, Engage four in 49:25 Breezing 18/77 at PMM
March 10, Greyvitos four in 1.04:20 Handily 28/29 at DMR
March 10, Hollywood Star six in 1.14:21 Breezing 1/3 at GP
March 10, Impact Player four in 49:88 Breezing 13/24 at PBD
March 10, Magnum Moon, five in 1.00:79 Breezing 1/12 at PBD
March 10, Mississippi four in 50:20 Breezing 50/77 at PMM
March 10, My Boy Jack five in 1.01:60 Handily 29/61 at SA
March 10, Navistar four in 49:51 Breezing 5/24 at PBD
March 10, Nero four in 48:40 Handily 3/54 at SA
March 10, Noble Indy five in 1.01:39 Breezing 7/12 at PBD
March 10, Plainsman five in 1.01:40 Breezing 11/26 at OP
March 10, Shain Zane five in 59:60 Breezing 2/26 at OP
March 10, Slot four in 49:51 Breezing 5/24 at PBD
March 10, Solomini five in 59:00 Handily 1/61 at SA
March 10, Soutache four in 48:20 Breezing 8/91 at GP
March 10, The Tabulator three in 36:60 Breezing 7/17 at HAW
Continue to More Workouts
Downey Profile subscribers to the Kentucky Derby service have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, Downey's in-depth post-race analyses of the Kentucky Derby prep races starting with the Risen Star Stakes, special NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!
Our Derby Trail Subscription Service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Sam F. Davis Stakes and San Vicente Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from trainers, jockeys and owners. We usually start out with about 100 horses on these lists. We started with 103 this year. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.
Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for the fourth straight year in 2017. Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4, Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)
The Commish picked the winner right on top for the third time in four years:
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. HENCE (eleventh)
3. STATE OF HONOR (nineteenth)
4. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
5. TAPWRIT (sixth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were:
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)
For the first time, Downey put together a superfecta part wheel for subscribers. The cost for a $1 ticket was $88, and we were fortunate enough to see that bet hit and pay $542.10.
The Commish picked:
1. EXAGGERATOR (second)
2. NYQUIST (first)
3. MY MAN SAM (eleventh)
4. WHITMORE (nineteenth)
5. MO TOM (eighth)
The Commish stuck to his guns with Exaggerator in the Preakness, and he won the race.
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)
The Commish picked:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FIRING LINE (second)
4. FROSTED (fourth)
5. CARPE DIEM (tenth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were:
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)
The Commish picked:
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. CANDY BOY (thirteenth)
3. INTENSE HOLIDAY twelfth)
4. DANZA (third)
5. CHITU (ninth)
The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. In 2018, the site went live before the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes and San Vicente Stakes.
We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.
Thanks for everything, and it's good see you again.
--By Dick Downey
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page is an introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a variety of factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to firstname.lastname@example.org.
A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES: "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."
In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.
In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in A workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it. In addition, Downey's top 5 selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five.
In 2016, Nyquist, a Top 4 horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.
In 2017, Downey went outside the Top Downey Profile 4 and selected the top Profile Buster Profile horse, Always Dreaming, to win the Kentucky Derby. The Downey Profile had produced the winner of the Kentucky Derby from its Top 4 in 30 of the last 44 runnings, but sometimes there are identifiable factors that can bust the Profile. After Downey witnessed the tremendous final Derby workout of Always Dreaming, he decided that 2017 might be one of those times.
A Little About Us and Our Products
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, a sole proprietorship. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.
While the website has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.
Our Derby Trail Subscription was offered in 2015 and 2017 and did well, and it's back in 2018. That information was offered free in 2016 because illness in Downey's family shortened our coverage. This service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from and about trainers, jockeys, owners and the horses. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.