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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby Horses at The Downey Profile®


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RACING NEWS
Daily Belmont Update  Kentucky Derby Horses Preakness Horses Worth Watching Just In Case  Kentucky Derby Points  Kentucky Derby Trail  Dick's Picks  The Commish Triple Crown Nominees  Derby Future Wager  NTRA Polls  Subscribe  Sign In


Triple Crown Closed: TDP Wraps Up
It's time to wrap up The Downey Profile 2014 Triple Crown edition. Greg and I each selected California Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness -- and the Belmont Stakes, too. Click to read the wrap. More


Daily Belmont Update: Sunday, June 8
Our last Daily Update of 2014; it's been fun; Tonalist is doing well, eyeing the Travers; Sherman says it's all good and is looking forward to Breeders' Cup; roller coaster ride for Pletcher during the race; Ride On Curlin to get some rest; and More


NBC Stats Rise with Triple Crown on the Line
NBC says the Belmont Stakes averaged 20.6 million viewers – the second-highest Belmont Stakes viewership on record, trailing only Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown attempt in 2004. The standard used to assess viewership dates back to 1988. More


Belmont Goes to Tonalist as History Thwarted Again
With 36 years in the books since Affirmed won the Triple Crown, and with California Chrome's handy wins of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, expectations were high for a break in the drought. But it was not to be, as Tonalist took the 146th Belmont Stakes, edging the pace-setting Commissioner. More


Belmont Handle Hits All-Time High
With a Triple Crown bid on the line and 10 stakes races on the card, Belmont Stakes day yielded on-track handle of $19,105,877 and all-sources handle of $150,249,399 easily setting all-time NYRA records. More


Bayern Rebounds in Stephens
Overlooked at 9-1, Bayern sprinted away from his foes in the stretch en route to a 7 1/2-length victory in the Woody Stephens presented by RTN. More


Kentucky Derby Video
Preakness Video


Belmont Stakes Horses: Profiles Updated and Complete
Preakness Stakes Horses: Profiles Updated and Complete
Kentucky Derby Horses: Profiles Updated and Complete


 

Downey in NTRA Poll
Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile carries results here.

BLOODHORSE.COM

Our Derby Trail race handicapping previews are featured weekly at the Bloodhorse.com Triple Crown Channel.

On our site, the previews are at Dick's Picks and the page of Greg "The Commish" Johnson.

Apart from race handicapping, look for stories about Kentucky Derby theory and issues.

HANDICAPPING

How Our Selections Fared

The Commish 
Dick's Picks

Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes appear only on our Subscription Page along with other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.

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ROAD WORK

Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby,
Triple Crown and Beyond

All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.

 

June 7
Conquest Titan breezed five in 1:01.00 (4/32) at CD.
Mr Speaker breezed four in :51.00 (31/34) at BEL.

June 5
Chelios worked four in :48:60 (1/12) at SA.
Dynamic Impact breezed four in :49:40 (3/28) at CD
.

June 4
Quick Indian breezed four in :53:60 (47/47) at CD.
Kristo worked five in 1.01:20 (6/9) at SA.
Talon's of Tuscany breezed four in :49:20 (5/47) at CD.
Tourist breezed four on the training track in :50:16 (7/10) at SAR.

June 3
Cherubim breezed five in 1.02:87 (5/7) at BEL.
King Cyrus breezed five 1.01:00 (4/20) at CD.
Shared Belief worked four in :50:80 (10/12) at GG.
Top Fortitude breezed three in :36:55 (7/13) at BEL.
We Miss Artie breezed four on the training track in :48:79 (2/33) at SAR.

June 2
Albano breezed five in 1.01:60 (1/3) at DEL.
Our Caravan breezed four on the training track in :49:41 (2/21) at SAR.
Tapiture breezed five on a muddy track in 1.00:80 (6/23) at CD.
Vicar's in Trouble breezed five in 1.00:80 (2/7) at CDT.

June 1
Bayern breezed five in :59:40 (2/43) at CD.
Big Bazinga breezed four in :48:00 (5/23) at WO.
Coltimus Prime worked five in :59:20 (1/14) at WO.
Commanding Curve breezed four in :47:38 (3/25) at BEL.
Commissioner breezed four on the training track in :49.86 (28/38) at BEL.     
Coup de Grace breezed four in :47.54 (6/25) at BEL.
Cousin Stephen breezed four on the training track in :49:54 (13/28) at SAR.
Financial Mogul breezed four in :48:71 (1/9) at AQU.
Havana breezed four on the training track in :48:10 (6/38) at BEL.
Kobe's Back worked five in :59:40 (4/64) at SA.
Matterhorn breezed four on the training track in :49.90 (29/38) at BEL.     
Matuszak breezed five in 1:00.94 (6/14) at BEL.
Ride On Curlin breezed seven in 1:28.03 (1/1) at BEL.
Uncle Sigh breezed a mile on the training track in 1.43:57 (1/1) at BEL.
Wicked Strong breezed five on the training track in :59.10 (1/12) at BEL.

May 31
Best Plan Yet breezed six in 1.14:07 (1/1) at GP.
California Chrome breezed four in :47.61 (5/24) at BEL.
Conquest Titan breezed five in 1.00:00 (8/36) at CD.
Craftsman breezed five in 1.02:20 (16/20) at FAI.
Flat Gone breezed four in :48:00 (7/56) at AP.
General a Rod breezed five in 1.00:20 (1/10) at CDT.
Louies Flower breezed six in 1.14:40 (5/8) at CD.
Medal Count breezed six in 1.10:60 (1/8) at CD.
Noble Moon breezed three in :38:22 (10/12) at BEL.
Rum Point worked five in 1.01:00 (24/46) at SA.
Samraat breezed a mile in 1:47.55 (1/1) at AQU.
Social Inclusion breezed three in :33.55 (1/14) at BEL.
Son of Dixie breezed four in :48:60 (1/22) at FL.
Spot breezed four on the training track in :48:44 (7/21) at SAR.
Tanzanite Cat worked five in :59:60 (3/22) at LA.
Texas Ryano worked five in 1.00:20 (13/46) at SA.
The Admiral breezed five in 1.01:20 (21/36) at CD.
Tonalist breezed five in 1:00.14 (8/28) at BEL.

May 30
Kid Cruz breezed six on the training track in 1.14:53 (1/2) at BEL.
Noble Cornerstone breezed four in :49.20 B (10/18) at BEL.
Rise Up breezed four in :47:80 (5/42) at CD.

May 29
Cool Samurai breezed five in 1.02:67 (13/14) at BEL.
Harry's Holiday breezed four in :49:20 (4/6) at CDT.

May 28
East Hall breezed four in :49:03 (7/12) at GP.
King Cyrus breezed five in 1.01:40 (6/14) at CD.
Kristo worked four in :47:60 (1/12) at SA.
Talon's of Tuscany breezed four in :49:40 (9/27) at CD.
Tourist breezed five on the training track in 1.03:14 (2/4) at SAR.

May 27
Bayern breezed four in 48:00 (4/31) at CD.
Cherubim breezed four in :49:56 (11/16) at BEL.
Global View breezed four on firm turf in :53:40 (6/6) at CD.

May 26
Edison breezed four in :48:20 (12/47) at BEL.
Gold Hawk breezed four in :50:40 (34/46) at CD.
Harpoon breezed four on firm turf in :49:25 (2/6) at BEL.
Kobe's Back worked five in 1.00:80 (7/13) at SA.
Matuszak breezed five in 1.01:56 (19/30) at BEL.
Tapiture breezed five in 1.01:80 (10/17) at CD.
Texas Ryano worked four in :49:00 (28/48) at SA.
Vicar's in Trouble breezed five in 1.04:60 (20/21) at CDT.
We Miss Artie breezed four on the training track in :48:88 (3/30) at SAR.

May 25
Bobby's Kitten breezed four on the training track in :49:20 (13/38) at SAR.
Cleburne breezed five in 1.01:80 (19/38) at CD.
Coastline breezed five in 1.00:20 (3/38) at CD.
Coltimus Prime breezed five in 1.00:60 (26/38) at WO.
Conquest Titan breezed five in 1.01:60 (14/38) at CD.
Commissioner breezed five in 1:00.77 (8/28) at BEL.     
Coup de Grace breezed five in :59.35 (2/28) at BEL.
Cousin Stephen breezed four on the training track in :48:65 (4/38) at SAR.
Divine Oath breezed four on the training track in :49:60 (16/38) at SAR.
Financial Mogul breezed six in 1.15:55 (1/1) at AQU.
Havana breezed five in :59.64 (5/28) at BEL     
Intense Holiday breezed five in 1:00.77 (8/28) at BEL.
Samraat breezed a mile in 1:41.28 (1/1) at BEL.          
The Admiral breezed five in 1.01:00 (8/38) at CD.
Tonalist breezed five in 1.01:66 (19/28) at BEL.
Uncle Sigh breezed five on the training track in 1.00:66 (2/24) at BEL.
Wicked Strong breezed a mile on the training track in 1:39.59 (1/1) at BEL.

May 24
Best Plan Yet breezed five in 1.01:11 (1/8) at GP.
C. Zee breezed four in :47:32 (7/79) at GP.
Candy Boy worked five in 1.00:20 (5/17) at SA.
Joint Custody breezed four in :48:00 (1/42) at LRL.
Medal Count breezed five in :59:40 (1/40) at CD.
Rum Point worked four in :49:40 (13/19) at SA.
Tanzanite Cat worked four in :50:00 (9/10) at LA.
Top Fortitude worked four in :47:80 (4/38) at SA.

May 23
Commanding Curve breezed five in :59:80 (3/25) at CD.
Louie's Flower breezed five in 1.00:00 (6/25) at CD.

May 22
Hy Kodiak Warrior breezed four in :49:40 (2/24) at MTH.
Midnight Hawk breezed five in 1.01:62 (14/19) at PID.
Rise Up breezed four in :49:60 (6/18) at CD.
Spot breezed five on the training track in 1.05:02 (2/2) at SAR.

May 21
Almost Famous breezed three in :38:20 (9/15) at CD.
Ami's Holiday breezed four in :49:00 (12/17) at WO.
Cool Samurai breezed four on the training track in :47:74 (5/33) at BEL.
Deceived breezed four in :46:75 (1/32) at BEL.
King Cyrus breezed four in :48:20 (1/26) at CD.
Shared Belief worked six in 1.14:80 (1/3) at GG.
Texas Ryano worked four in :50:00 (2/3) at SA.
Tourist breezed four on the training track in :50:04 (5/13) at SAR.

May 20
Cleburne breezed four in :50:00 (23/47) at CD.
Gala Award breezed four on the training track in :49:56 (8/21) at SAR.
Global View breezed five on firm turf in 1.00:80 (1/3) at CD.
Havana breezed four on the training track in :49:43 (22/42) at BEL.
Kobe's Back worked four in :47:40 (1/10) at SA.

May 19
Albano breezed five in :59:60 (1/10) at DEL.
Can'thelpbelieving breezed five in 1.02:00 (1/5) at FAI.
Coastline breezed five in 1.02:20 (18/26) at CD.
Conquest Titan breezed five in 1.01:00 (2/18) at CD.
Flat Gone breezed four on the turf in :53:20 (2/2) at AP.
Gold Hawk breezed five in 1.01:00 (2/18) at CD.
In Trouble breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/4) at FAI.
Matuszak breezed five in :59:70 (1/35) at BEL.
Mr Speaker breezed four in :48:90 (6/23) at BEL.
Sassicaia breezed five in 1.00:62 (12/35) at BEL.
Tapiture breezed five in 1.02:80 (16/18) at CD.
The Admiral breezed four in :47:20 (2/52) at CD.
Vicar's in Trouble breezed four in :49:00 (8/24) at CD.

May 18
All Tied Up breezed four in :49:40 (40/79) at MTH.
Asserting Bear breezed five in 1.01:60 (16/30) at WO.
Bobby's Kitten breezed four on the training track in :48:64 (2/30) at SAR.
Candy Boy worked four in :50:00 (19/26) at SA.
Coup de Grace breezed four in :48:15 (7/34) at BEL.
Cousin Stephen breezed four on the training track in :49:35 (7/30) at SAR,
Danza breezed four on the training track in :49:49 (27/53) at BEL.
Divine Oath breezed four on the training track in :50:22 (20/30) at SAR.
Harpoon breezed four on the inner turf track in :50:16 (3/5) at BEL.
Samraat breezed four in :48:84 (2/15) at AQU.
Storming Inti breezed four on the training track in :49:77 (12/30) at SAR.
Uncle Sigh breezed five in 1.01:55 (10/13) at BEL.
Wicked Strong breezed five on the training track in 1.01:84 (1/6) at BEL.

May 17
Matador breezed five in 1.01:60 (17/77) at WO.
Medal Count breezed four in :49:00 (27/65) at CD.



 

 


MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on left sidebar, or click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.

After you subscribe, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here.


A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. This product will be online after the Kentucky Derby.

A Little About Us

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the 12th consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.

While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.

 

The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile, LLC. © 2003-2014

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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