SUBSCRIBER NOTICES --(1) Preakness Selections by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson Are Posted. (2) Downey Has Posted "Preakness, Pimlico Meet: A Brief History of Post 1." See Segment 8 NOTES. To read about The Downey Profile, click here.
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Trouble with your username or password? Contact us at email@example.com The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office.
Subscribers: (1) Preakness Selections by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson Are Posted. (2) Downey Posted "Preakness, Pimlico Meet: A Brief History of Post 1." See Segment 8 NOTES.
BLACK-EYED SUSAN RESULTS: (1) Fiftyshadesofhay (2) Marathon Lady (3) Toasting. The time was a very tepid 1:52.73 for 1 1/8 mile. Winning connections: trainer Bob Baffert, jockey Joel Rosario, owners Karl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weitman, breeder WinStar Farm LLC. Congratulations to them.
PREAKNESS ODDS: SATURDAY 4:23 PM ET
Will Take Charge
Belmont Stakes Probables -- As of May 18 at 4:30 p.m. ET Freedom Child, Golden Soul, Goldencents, Orb, Overanalyze, Power Broker, Revolutionary. Palace Malice possible.
Final Daily Preakness Update It's almost all over but the shouting. But it's not over yet, and today's notes add additional insight into the nine horses of Preakness 138 and their connections. More
Preakness Weather Forecast Last Updated Saturday at 11:05 a.m. ET. The National Weather Service now says the chance of rain on Saturday is virtually nil until 5:00, when it goes to 40%, then to 50% by 7:00. WBAL in Baltimore says it's 35% from 2:00 until 11:00.Post time for the Preakness is 6:20 p.m. The temperature is very comfortable here,
How The Downey Profile Fared in the 2012 Triple Crown Series Subscribers know this already, and for others who are interested, here's how The Downey Profile played out in the 2012 Triple Crown.
Our bedrock product is The Downey Profile, in which we attempt to narrow down the Kentucky Derby contenders to four runners, thus eliminating 80% of the field. Going into 2012, 27 of the last 39 Kentucky Derby winners were produced from The Downey Profile Top 4.
We also annually feature the Profile Buster Profile on the Subscription Page. This is a back-up profile produced by using a group of factors held in common by horses that have beaten The Downey Profile in the Kentucky Derby. The Profile Buster Profile has produced some winners since we started using it a few years ago. Before this year, the most recent such winner was Super Saver in 2010.
Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finisher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse.
I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness. Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause, Downey's Preakness selection, was third.
Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. He was Downey's top pick in both the Derby and Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran second and third, in his Belmont selections. Aside from Union Rags, Optimizer was the only Derby horse to run in the Belmont.
We are pleased that the work continues to show merit. Thank you for reading our pages, and to our Subscribers, a special thank you.
Downey in NTRA Poll Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile carries results here.
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
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A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. This product will be online after the Kentucky Derby.
A Little About Us
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for Breeders' Cup. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the tenth consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.
While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile--updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on over two dozen Kentucky Derby prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.
Preakness Selections by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson Are Posted on the Subscription Page.
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes appear only on our Subscription Page along with other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.
To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on the left sidebar, or click here. To sign in, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here. Trouble with your username or password? Write us at: email@example.com
Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown
All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf or an off track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Hollywood Park, Keeneland, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park and Woodbine works are on synthetic track except when noted.
On May 16, Declan's Warrior breezed four on the training track in :47.40 (1/20) at SAR.
On May 16, Title Contender breezed three in :36.00 (1/7) at CD.
On May 14, Dynamic Strike breezed five in 1:02.00 (3/14) at LRL.
On May 14, Sunbean breezed five in :59.40 (1/7) at CDT.
On May 14, West Hills Giant breezed four on the training track in :47.00 (2/36) at BEL.
On May 13, Abstraction breezed four in :48.20 (6/40) at CD.
On May 13, Capo Bastone breezed four on the training track in :48.20 (23/78) at BEL.
On May 13, Govenor Charlie breezed six in 1:10.80 (1/4) at CD.
On May 13, Looking Cool breezed five in :50.40 (29/40) at CD.
On May 13, Mylute breezed four in :49.60 (20/40) at CD.
On May 13, Orb breezed four in :47.18 (5/96) at BEL.
On May 13, Oxbow breezed four in :49.80 (22/40) at CD.
On May 13, Pick of the Litter breezed five in 1:00.40 (2/18) at CD.
On May 13, Rydilluc breezed a mile in 1:43.67 (1/1) at BEL.
On May 13, Will Take Charge breezed four in :48.20 (6/40) at CD.
On May 13, Winning Cause breezed four on the training track in :49.00 (3/24) at SAR.
On May 12, Cerro breezed four in :50.00 (3/12) at FAI.
On May 12, Den's Legacy worked five in 1:01.00 (16/50) at SA.
On May 12, Departing breezed four in :50.40 (59/75) at CD.
On May 12, Itsmyluckyday breezed four in :47.20 (1/1) at MTH.
On May 12, Tiz A Minister worked four in :48.80 (19/53) at BHP.
On May 11, Charming Kitten breezed four in :51.00 (54/74) at CRC.
On May 10, Title Contender breezed five in 1:01.20 (8/27) at CD.
On May 9, War Academy breezed five in :59.60 (1/15) at CD.
On May 7, Fear The Kitten breezed four on a good track in :48.60 (6/18) at CDT.
On May 7, General Election breezed five in 1:01.60 (2/23) at KEE.
On May 7, Govenor Charlie breezed six in 1:11.40 (1/3) at CD.
On May 7, Pick Of The Litter breezed five in 1:01.40 (13/34) at CD.
On May 7, Power Broker breezed three in :38.00 (10/14) at CD.
On May 7, Sunbean breezed four on a good track in :49.40 (11/18) at CDT.
On May 7, Titletown Five breezed four in :47.60 (5/35) at CD.
On May 5, Freedom Child breezed five in 1:01.60 (26/41) at BEL.
On May 5, Infinite Magic breezed four in :48.40 (10/46) at BEL.
On May 5, My Name Is Michael breezed five in 1:03.00 (38/41) at BEL.
On May 5, Transparent breezed four in :50.80 (39/46) at BEL.
On May 4, Abraham breezed four in :47.60 (6/43) at CD.
On May 4, Declan's Warrior breezed four on the training track in :48.00 (1/14) at SAR.
On May 4, Den's Legacy worked six in 1:16.20 (6/8) at SA.
On May 4, Incognito breezed four in :47.40 (4/46) at BEL.
On May 4, Sr. Quisqueyano worked four in :47.80 (1/72) at CRC.
On May 4, Transparent breezed four in :50.80 (39/46) at BEL.
On May 4, Treasury Bill worked six in 1:14.40 (3/10) at BHP.
The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile, LLC dba Dick's Picks.
The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008.