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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®



SUBSCRIBER NOTICE: Dick's Picks for the Belmont Stakes and Selections by Greg "The Commish" Johnson are posted. Posted on June 7 Segment NOTES 10: Nine Furlong Finishing Times; 12-Second Furlongs. Posted on June 6 Segment NOTES 9: Belmont Stakes Dosage History: What They Have in Common; The Recent Trend; This Year's Contenders.  Also on June 6 we updated Segment NOTES 6 and 7. Posted on May 31 are Segment NOTES 6 through 8 as follows: (6) Analysis of Derby and/or Preakness Non-Winners Past 43 Years; (7) Analysis of New Shooters Past 43 Years; (8) Analysis of Derby/Preakness Winners Past 48 Years. In case of difficulty signing in, log out and sign in again. Please use the same username and password going forward.

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To read about The Downey Profile, click here. The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013.

Thank You Everyone!
WinStar's Creative Plan Comes Together
Belmont Stakes PPs from Brisnet
Belmont Stakes Contenders
Belmont Stakes Video
Preakness Video
Kentucky Derby Video

Follow Us on Twitter

Triple Crown Wrap: How We Performed

Final Daily Belmont Update

Profiles of Belmont Stakes Horses Complete

Belmont Day Handle Figures Mixed

Stewart, Tom's Ready Back in Winner's Circle

Economic Model Springs Easy Goer Upset

Thursday: Daily Belmont Update

What They Think About the Draw....

Here We Go Again...Lani Goes Five

Team Desormeaux: Workout Analyzed

All Over But the Shouting....

Gettysburg to Belmont Stakes

Lani's Work Could Move Up

Our Profile of Gettysburg

Desormeaux Back with Exaggerator - Updated
Creator, Suddenbreakingnews Work

Sunday: Pretty Quiet at Belmont

Belmont Stakes Day Probables: 10 Races

We Wish Kent Well....

Four Breeze for Belmont
Clockers Say Lani Went 3F
Field Swells

Final Work Begins for Belmont Stakes
Stradivari Confirmed

Forever d'Oro, Seeking the Soul
Now on Belmont Contenders Page

Derby Winner Back on Track

Lani Breezes; Field Assembles

Wild About Deb Now Probable
See Why He's Interesting

Preakness Champ Gets Feel for Big Sandy
Will Breeze June 7

Belmont Breeze for Creator

Exaggerator in New York
Video of His Arrival

Von Hemel: 'Went Real Smooth'

Exaggerator Galloping Again

Smith to Suddenbreakingnews

Romans Breezes Both

Destin Moves Closer to Belmont Clash

Clement Being Deliberate....

Keeping Kent Busy....

Belmont Probables/Possibles PPs

SBN Still Firm, Some on the Fence....

Successful Fund Raiser for PDJF

Eight So Far....

Wednesday: Desormeaux Says All Is Well....

Preakness TV Viewers Up

Exaggerator Thriving....

Elevated White Blood Cell Count
Jack Sisterson Interview

Nyquist Belmont Status on Hold

Exaggerator Doing Well Monday

Exaggerator Turns the Tables

Romans Cha-Chings

Sunday: Daily Preakness Update

Exaggerator, Trainer, Jockey Preakness Trivia

Black-Eyed Susan Quotes

Derby Blood Tests Negative

Up Close: Nyquist in Derby Gate


Derby by the Speed Numbers


Continue to All Workouts

Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted

Feb. 21, 1:01.16 B 6/21 at GP
Feb. 28, 1:00.73 B 3/26 at GP
March 6, 48.40 B 6/73 at TBD
March 12, Raced Tampa Bay Derby
March 27, 47.90 B 17/76 at GP
April 2, 59:82 B 2/19 at GP
April 9, Raced Blue Grass
April 15, 49.00 B 29/79 at KEE
April 23, 1.01:80 B 34/64 at CD
April 30, 1:00.20 4/57 at CD
May 7, Raced Kentucky Derby
May 22, 1.01:00 B 8/34 at CD good
May 28, 1.42:00 B 1/1 at CD
June 4, 37:11 B 6/19 at BEL

Feb. 21, 1:00.11 B 2/21 at GP
March 5, 47.26 B 2/78 at GP
March 12, 1:00.36 B 6/40 at GP
March 19, Raced Rebel
April 2, 1.00:47 B 3/19 at GP
April 9, Raced Blue Grass
April 30, 1:00.60 11/57 at CD
May 14, 1.01:60 B 24/38 at CD
May 21, Raced Preakness Stakes
May 28, 49:60 B 44/80 at CD
June 4, 1:00.12 B 4/24 at BEL

Feb. 22, 51.80 B 11/17 at OP
March 7, 51.40 B 40/51 at OP
March 14, 49.20 B 11/36 at OP
March 19, Raced Rebel
March 29, 51.00 B 29/44 at OP
April 4, 1.00:60 B 3/13 at OP
April 11, 50:40 B 5/11 at OP sloppy
April 16, Raced Arkansas Derby
April 25, 1:02.40 B 25/34 at CD
May 2, 50:60 B 47/56 at CD
May 7, Raced Kentucky Derby
May 16, 51:60 B 39/42 at CD
May 23, 1.02:00 B 24/35 at CD
May 30, 1.02:00 B 19/27 at CD
June 6, 50:60 B 9/10 at BEL training

Feb. 12, Raced Sam F. Davis
Feb. 27, 48.43 B 4/31 at PBD
March 5, 48.99 B 7/25 at PBD
March 12, Raced Tampa Bay Derby
April 2, Destin 48.98 B 6/17 at PMM
April 8, Destin 1.01:04 B 3/12 at PBD
April 16, Destin 1.00:94 B 1/2 at PBD
April 23, 1:00.23 B 1/8 at PBD
April 29, 1.01:40 B 29/53 at CD
May 7, Raced Kentucky Derby
May 20, 48:22 B 2/34 at BEL training
May 27, 1.01:85 B 5/9 at BEL training
June 3, 49.56 B 5/43 at BEL training

Feb. 27, 1:00.40 H 15/102 at SA
March 5, 1:00.40 H 24/134 at SA
March 12, Raced San Felipe
March 26, 1:00.40 H 11/54 at SA
April 2, 1.02:80 H 66/70 at SA
April 9, Raced Santa Anita Derby
April 23, 1.00:00 H 5/28 at SA
April 30, 1:02.60 48/57 at CD
May 7 Raced Kentucky Derby
May 21 Raced Preakness Stakes
June 6, 1:00.87 B 4/7 at BEL

April 9 Raced MSW at Keeneland
April 23, 1:01.40 B 33/65 at CD
April 29, 59.80 B 10/53 at CD
May 7, Raced MSW at Churchill Downs
May 23, 59.60 Breezing 2/37 at CD
May 29, Raced MSW at Belmont Park

April 9, 49.20 B 13/49 at KEE
April 16 Raced Arkansas Derby
May 8, 48:58 B 15/129 at BEL training
May 14, 49:25 B 15/34 at BEL training good
May 20, 48:22 B 2/34 at BEL training
May 26 Raced BEL allowance
June 5, 48:90 B 8/44 at BEL training

April 2, 48.00 2/14 at PAY
April 9, Raced Frederico Tesio
April 24, 1:00.89 B 3/12 at BEL
April 30, 1:01.19 B 3/12 at BEL
May 7, 1:02.00 Breezing 1/1 at BEL
May 14, Raced Peter Pan
May 27, 1.01:20 B 2/8 at BEL
June 3, 1.13:42 B 2/2 at BEL

April 20, 1.06:00 B 21/21 at CD
April 27, 37:40 B 5/8 at CD
May 3, 1.01:00 B 3/18 at CD
May 7, Raced Kentucky Derby
May 18, 1:01.40 B 4/11 at BEL
May 21, Raced Preakness Stakes
June 1, 1.02:09 B 13/16 at BEL
June 4, 38:01 B 13/19 at BEL
June 8, 1.00:43 B 2/16 at BEL

April 17, 49.60 B 14/40 at CD
April 24, 1:00.20 B 5/29 at CD
May 2, 1:01.60 B 12/27 at CD
May 7, Raced MSW at Churchill Downs
May 20, 49.40 Breezing 38/68 at CD
May 29, Raced MSW at Churchill Downs

April 29, 1:01.40 B 30/53 at CD
May 7, 1:14.40 B 1/1 B at CD
May 13, 59:60 B at BEL training
May 21 Raced Preakness Stakes
June 3, 50.51 B 26/42 at BEL training

Feb. 27, 51.20 B 75/84 at OP
March 5, 1:00.60 B 9/46 at OP
March 14, 1:02.00 B 7/22 at OP
March 19, Raced Rebel
April 1, 48:80 B 9/41 at OP
April 9,  48:40 B 9/44 at OP
April 16, Raced Arkansas Derby
April 29, 59:60 B 8/53 at CD
May 7, Raced Kentucky Derby
May 23, 1.00:60 B 9/35 at CD
May 29, 1.12:40 B 1/2 at CD
June 6, 49:40 B 17/42 at CD

Feb. 27, 1:01.20 H 43/102 at SA
March 6, Raced MSW
March 18, 49.20 H 21/42 at SA
March 28, 1:00.40 H 6/39 at SA
April 3, 59.80 H 1/59 at SA
April 9, Raced Wood Memorial
April 21, 47:60 H 5/18 at SA
April 28, 1.12:60 H 1/5 at SA
May 7, Raced Kentucky Derby
May 22, 59:60 H 1/21 at SA
May 29, 1.00:20 H 2/18 at SA
June 4, 59.20 H 3/71 at SA

April 2, 1:13.60 H 9/16 at SA
April 9, Raced MSW at SA
April 21, 51.00 H 47/49 at SA
April 28, 1:00.40 H 10/46 at SA
May 6, 1:13.40 H 4/10 at SA
May 14, Raced Peter Pan
May 24, 49.60 B 17/30 at CD
May 31, 1:13.20 B 1/1 at CD
June 6, 1:01.80 B 10/20 at CD

Continue to All Workouts

Posted April 30 2016 - Thanks to everyone for supporting The Downey Profile  We started late this year due to circumstances in my family (see below), so we did free prep race selections and the Lists are back for free this year. PLEASE ALSO NOTE that only Downey Profile subscribers will have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, my in-depth analyses of the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep races, NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!

--Dick Downey


Posted Jan. 24, 2016  -  Over the years, one of my goals has been to provide readers a website, not a blog, packed with more information about the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown than any other source. With that in mind, please forgive me the bloggish nature of this message.

For personal reasons, The Downey Profile will delay its opening or take a sabbatical this year. It's not about me; I'm doing fine. Specifically, my health and my home life are in good shape.

I have enjoyed immensely doing The Downey Profile every year since launching it, and I hope to continue it in some form in the future. I'm not giving up the website domain name, the Service Mark or the website itself, and I am keeping up with the Kentucky Derby Trail too.

Prior to this post on Jan. 24, I have entered one Derby contest so far -- the Commish runs it -- and my original 10 horses were Airoforce, Brody’s Cause, Drefong, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Let’s Meet in Rio, Nyquist, Rally Cry, Toew’s on Ice and Zulu. Incidentally, the contest began before Toew's on Ice ran poorly in the Smarty Jones, and I plan to replace him. Also, I'm already worried about Airoforce because he hasn't put in a breeze since Jan. 11, but trainer Casse recently said he's being pointed to Tampa Bay Downs. I also plan to participate in the annual high-level contest originating from Churchill Downs.

My selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)

The Commish picked:
1. American Pharoah (first)
2. Dortmund (third)
3. Firing Line (second)
4. Frosted (fourth)
5. Carpe Diem (tenth)

The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. Traditionally, the site goes live for that project starting late January.

We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.

Thanks for everything, and I hope to see you again as soon as possible.

--By Dick Downey



THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to

After you subscribe, you can click here to sign in.

A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it.

Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.

A Little About Us and Our Products

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.

While the web site has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.

Our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page was offered in 2015 and did well. However, that information is offered free in 2016 because we launched the website later than usual. It covered our Lists that are constantly updated, Derby prep race selections, miscellaneous pre-race commentary, updates, prep race probables/possibles and the ever-important post-race quotes -- all conveniently linked from one page.


The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile © 2003-2016

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.