SUBSCRIBERS:March 2: Segment 9 NOTES Posted (Gotham, Palm Beach, Swale, Battaglia Memorial); Feb. 25: Segment 8 NOTES Posted (Risen Star, Fountain of Youth)
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Trouble with your username or password? Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013.
Bayern Scratched from San Felipe Bayern, the presumptive favorite in the San Felipe Stakes this Saturday, has been declared a scratch by trainer Bob Baffert. More
Dick's Picks: Parity the Story in Tampa When you compare their most-recent-race performances and speed figures, the field in the Tampa Bay Derby could not be more competitive on paper. includes entry chart with morning line. More
Commish: Weeding Through the San Felipe Hype -- Updated after Scratch of Bayern In what may very well be the best Kentucky Derby prep race so far this year, the hype surrounding the San Felipe Stakes starts with Bayern, but I think there's more than meets the eye in this race. Includes entry chart with morning line. More
Toyota Blue Grass Draws Almost 200 Nominations Top 3-year-olds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby headline a list of 191 nominees to the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. More
Bayern the Star Power in San Felipe Stakes Bayern looks like the horse to beat in Saturday's San Felipe Stakes, and nine others will try to do just that. Bayern photo by Benoit Photo. More
Vinceremos Returns in Contentious Tampa Bay Derby Vinceremos, the Sam F. Davis Stakes winner by a nose, will defend his local crown against nine others in what looks to be a competitive Tampa Bay Derby. More
McGaughey Firms Up Rebel Plans Shug McGaughey said today he will ship Honor Code to Oaklawn Park on March 13 for the Rebel Stakes two days later. More
Velazquez Named on Wildcat Red John Velazquez, who will be the fifth time in as many starts, will be aboard Wildcat Red in the Besilu Stables Florida Derby. More
Bond Holder Plan: It Won't Be Up in the Air On Wednesday at Bloodhorse.com, Ron Mitchell's podcast with trainer Doug O'Neill reveals that regardless of what happens next, Bond Holder will not be put back on board an airplane any time soon. More
Spiral Stakes Attracts 137 Nominations Nominations closed for the 43d running of the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes with 137 nominations. Todd Pletcher leads with 18. More
Baffert, Stevens, Casse on National Teleconference For our coverage of the national teleconference calls on Tuesday with Bob Baffert, Gary Stevens and Mark Casse, please scroll down the Twitter feed on the left sidebar for their detailed comments. These were interesting interviews.
Added to Our Lists March 4 After Baratti won a Jan. 10 maiden special weight at Aquedut in nice fashion, he was on our lists when The Downey Profile's 2014 Derby Trail coverage debuted on Jan. 22. We were looking for him to make a run in the Gotham Stakes, but he didn't reappear on the worktab, so we deleted him. He's back on Worth Watching now after putting in published workouts on Feb. 25 and March 4.
Capossela Seven Meet at Aqueduct Saturday Long on Value and Hot Heir Skier headline an evenly matched field of 3-year-old sprinters on Saturday in the Fred "Cappy" Capossela. One of the seven entries is nominated to the Triple Crown and will try to turn the tables on Hot Heir Skier. More
Emirates Flyer Leads Field of 10 in Al Bastakiya Final Declarations have been made, and Emirates Flyer returns from a second-place finish in the UAE 2000 Guineas to be the top-rated entry in the Al Bastakiya this Saturday at Meydan Racecourse. Ten were named. More Final Declarations: Al Bastakiya Entry Chart
Al Bastikiya Draws 10 Entries Ten have been entered in Saturday's Al Bastakiya at Meydan Racecourse. Nine of them are 3-year-olds bred in the Northern Hemisphere, but none of them are nominated to the Triple Crown. More
Subscriber Notice On Monday, analysis and our usual fractional times were posted for the Gotham Stakes. There are additional notes about Gala Award, Spot and Poker Player.
Pletcher, Casse Reload for Tampa Bay Derby Todd Pletcher and Mark Casse, trainers of the last two winners of the Tampa Bay Derby, could account for as many as four starters in the race on Saturday. At this point, six or eight look probable. More
Selections for the San Felipe Stakes by The Commish.
Dick Downey's selections for the Tampa Bay Derby at Dick's Picks.
How Our Selections Fared
1. SAMRAAT (first at 2-1)
2. UNCLE SIGH (second at 7-2)
3. EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER (eighth at 6-1)
4. HARPOON (fifth at 4-1)
$2 exacta paid $24.60
1. NO NAY NEVER (second at 2-5)
2. HAVANA (scratched)
3. SPOT (first at 9-1)
4. BROTHERSOFTHETIME (third at 28-1)
Greg's remaining three selections after the scratch of Havana made up the exacta ($54.40 on a $2 wager) and the trifecta ($243.40 on a $1 wager).
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes appear only on our Subscription Page along with other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.
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Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby,
Triple Crown and Beyond
All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Betfair Hollywood Park, Golden Gate, Keeneland, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted. Closure of the stable area at Betfair Hollywood Park: End of January.
NOTE: Most workouts in California are deemed "handily" by clockers.
Awesome Sky breezed five in 1.01:60 (4/17) at OP.
Candy Boy worked five in 1.01:20 (13/25) at SA.
Hoppertunity worked four in :47:40 (4/42) at SA.
I'll Wrap It Up worked four in :49:80 (33/42) at SA.
Noble Moon breezed four on the training track in :49:50 (3/11) at BEL.
Red N Black Attack worked five in 1.02:80 (70/75) at SA.
Ride On Curlin breezed seven in 1.26:80 (1/1) at OP.
Strong Mandate breezed five in 1.03:60 (10/17) at OP.
Tonalist breezed five in 1.03:40 (4/4) at PAY.
Top Fortitude worked five in 1.00:80 (18/75) at SA.
Victory Nor Defeat breezed four in :47:62 (2/12) at GP.
Z Lucky breezed four in :48:40 (3/20) at OP.
Coastline breezed five in 1.00:40 (1/7) at OTC.
Clovelly breezed four in :50:00 (2/7) at PAY.
Global View breezed four in :48:80 (4/23) at TAM.
Roger Rocket worked five in 1.00:00 (15/51) at SA.
Social Inclusion breezed three in :35:28 (2/17) at GP.
Baratti breezed four on the training track in :48:87 (3/7) at BEL.
Chelios worked five in 1.01:80 (51/69) at SA.
Chitu worked five in :59:60 (3/69) at SA.
Enterprising worked four in :50:00 (51/61) at SA.
Midnight Hawk worked four in :49:40 (45/61) at SA.
Papa Turf worked four in :48:40 (28/61) at SA.
Rise Up breezed four in :48:20 (2/30) at FG.
Royal Banker worked five in 1.02:40 (58/69) at SA.
Schoolofhardrocks worked five in 1.00:20 (14/69) at SA.
Texas Ryano worked four in :48:20 (22/61) at SA.
Asserting Bear breezed five in 1.03:00 (1/2) at PBD.
Bayern worked five in :59:80 (18/65) at SA.
Cool Samurai worked four in :48:40 (21/51) at SA.
Kristo worked six in 1.13:40 (4/16) at SA.
Bobby's Kitten breezed four in :49:95 (33/52) at PMM.
California Chrome worked five on a track rated wet-fast in 1.00:40 (1/1) at LA.
Coup de Grace breezed four in :48:00 (3/52) at PMM.
Dunkin Bend breezed four in :49:60 (16/74) at OP.
Edison breezed four in :50.00 (39/52)at PMM.
Holy Wildctat breezed four in :48:45 (5/33) at PMM.
Honor Code breezed five in :59:18 (6/43) at GP.
Louies Flower breezed four in :51:80 (68/74) at OP.
Matuszak breezed four on the training track in :48:27 (22/146) at BEL.
Ring Weekend breezed four in :49:90 (21/33) at PMM.
Scotland breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/10) at FAI.
Sheltowee's Boy breezed four :50.40 B (45/74) at OP.
Son of Dixie breezed four in :52:60 (73/74) at OP.
Surfing U S A breezed four in :51:00 (32/33) at PMM.
Tamarando breezed five in 1.01:80 (22/78) at GG.
Tapiture breezed five in 1.00:40 (2/48) at OP.
Vinceremos breezed four in :48:45 (5/33) at PMM.
All in Blue breezed five in 1.00:70 (4/35) at PMM.
Arctic Slope breezed five in 1.01:67 (16/38) at GP.
Cairo Prince breezed five in :59:95 (1/35) at PMM.
Chas's Legacy breezed four in 48:75 (14/57) at PMM.
Cleburne breezed five in 1.00:52 (7/38) at GP.
Coltimus Prime breezed five in 1.01:40 (9/25) at TAM.
Conquest Titan breezed five in 1.02:25 (20/35) at PMM.
Cousin Stephen breezed four in :48:30 (6/57) at PMM.
Hy Kodiak Warrior breezed five in 1.01:00 ( 1/19) at CRC.
Joint Custody breezed six in 1.19:00 (1/1) at LRL.
Matador breezed five in 1.03:65 (30/31) at PMM.
Sassicaia breezed four in :48:30 ( 4/38) at PMM.
Sheikinator breezed five in 1.01:67 (16/38) at GP.
Talon's of Tuscany breezed four in :50:10 (62/85) at GP.
Bourbonize breezed five in :1.04:00 (40/47) at OP.
Tanzanite Cat breezed four in :52:40 (26/29) at OP.
Global View breezed a mile in 1.47:80 (1/1) at TAM.
Noble Moon breezed four on the training track in :51:69 (21/22) at BEL.
Ami's Holiday breezed five in 1.01:80 (6/12) at OP.
Candy Boy worked four in :48:20 (25/71) at SA.
Cherubim worked four in :47:80 (12/71) at SA.
Chitu worked five in 1.00:40 (15/82) at SA.
Clovelly breezed four in :49:00 (3/5) at PAY.
Diamond Bachelor worked five on firm turf in 1.02:80 (2/2) at SA.
Kobe's Back worked five in 1.00:80 (26/82) at SA.
Midnight Hawk worked five in :58:80 (2/82) at SA.
Rum Point worked five in 1.01:00 (36/82) at SA.
Schoolofhardrocks worked six in 1.11:40 (4/30) at SA.
Tap It Rich worked five in 1.00:80 (26/82) at SA.
Baratti breezed four on the training track in :48:34 (4/46) at BEL.
Big Sugar Soda breezed four in :52:20 (28/31) at OP.
Chelios worked four in :50:00 (1/1) at SA.
Empower breezed four on the training track in :48:37 (5/46) at BEL.
Honor Code breezed four in :52:06 (24/24) at GP.
Honorable Judge breezed four in :48:22 (18/57) at PRX.
Laddie Boy breezed three in :35:80 (1/3) at TTC.
Mr Speaker breezed four in :49:00 (1/1) at PAY.
Noble Cornerstone breezed four in :51:65 (23/24) at GP.
Strong Mandate breezed four in :48:00 (1/31) at OP.
Z Lucky breezed four in :48:40 (4/31) at OP.
Bobby's Kitten breezed five on firm turf in 1.02:65 (32/35) at PMM.
Can'thelpbelieving breezed five on firm turf in 1.01:45 (23/35) at PMM.
Kristo worked six in 1:10.80 (1/8) at SA.
Poker Player breezed five in 1.01:00 (2/6) at FG.
Uncle Sigh breezed four on the training track in :47:98 (12/119) at BEL.
Undertaker breezed five in 1.00:01 (1/18) at PRX.
Anchor Down breezed four in :49:30 (10/58) at PMM.
Classic Giacnroll breezed four in :52:80 (28/280 at AQU.
Coup de Grace breezed four in :48:45 (3/58) at PMM.
Danza breezed four in :49:30 (10/58) at PMM.
Deceived breezed six on the training track in 1.16:10 (1/2) at BEL.
Dunkin Bend breezed five in 1.00:20 (2/35) at OP.
Harpoon breezed four in :47:95 (1/58) at PMM.
Havana breezed five in 1.00:90 (3/14) at PMM.
Holy Wildcat breezed four in :50:25 (27/58) at PMM.
King Cyrus breezed five in 1.01:70 (9/14) at PMM.
Matuskak breezed four on the training track in :51:10 (67/85) at BEL.
Monopolize breezed four in :49:00 (7/58) at PMM.
No Nay Never breezed five in 1.00:02 (8/24) at GP.
Papa Turf worked four in :48:60 (14/41) at SA.
Storming Inti breezed four in :50:50 (35/58) at PMM.
Surfing U S A breezed four in :47:95 (1/58) at PMM.
Tamarando worked four in :49:80 (50/98) at GG.
Tashir breezed five in 1.03:00 (2/3) at CRC.
Vinceremos breezed five in 1.01:70 (9/14) at PMM.
All in Blue breezed four in :48:60 (15/71) at PMM.
Arctic Slope breezed five in 1.00:91 (24/49) at GP.
Cairo Prince breezed four in :49:90 (51/71) at PMM.
California Chrome worked six in 1.11:80 (1/4) at LA.
Cleburne breezed four in :49:40 (33/62) at GP.
Conquest Titan breezed four in :48:30 (6/71) at PMM.
Cool Samurai worked four in :49:40 (22/39) at SA.
Cousin Stephen breezed five in 1.01:25 (3/18) at PMM.
Financial Mogul breezed five in 1.00:60 (1/10) at FAI.
Matador breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/18) at PMM.
Notability breezed five in 1.00:40 (13/49) at GP.
Samraat breezed a mile in 1.45:00 (1/1) at PMM.
Sassicaia breezed five in 1.01:25 (3/18) at PMM.
Sheikinator breezed five in 1.00:91 (24/49) at GP.
Smart Cover breezed five in 1.00:56 (18/49) at GP.
Uncle Sigh breezed five on the training track in :59:91 (1/6) at BEL.
Chitu worked five in 1.00:40 (12/49) at SA.
Coltimus Prime breezed five in 1.00:20 (1/1) at PBD.
Global View breezed six in 1.13:60 (1/2) at TAM.
Hy Kodiak Warrior breezed five in 1.00:60 (1/8) at CRC.
Ide Be Cool breezed five in 1.04:20 (8/26) at DEL.
In Trouble breezed five in 1.02:75 (9/12) at PMM.
Midnight Hawk worked five in :59:60 (6/61) at SA.
Top Fortitude worked four in 50:60 (26/30) at SA.
Ami's Holiday breezed four in 50:40 (5/8) at OP.
Rum Point worked six in 1.14:40 (4/8) at SA.
Solitary Ranger breezed five in :59:80 (1/24) at FG..
Souper Lucky breezed four in :50:85 (15/21) at PMM. Late-reported works
On Feb. 19, Laddie Boy breezed six in 1.13:20 (1/1) at KEE.
On Feb 16, Our Caravan breezed four in :48.90 (17/57) at PMM.
Clovelly breezed four in :51:00 (5/10) at PAY.
Honor Code breezed four in :49.71 (6/13) at GP.
Noble Cornerstone breezed five in 1:00.56 (4/10) at GP.
Schoolofhardrocks worked six in 1.14:40 (4/5) at SA.
Deceived breezed four on the training track in :50:66 (12/24) at BEL.
Mexikoma breezed four in :49:05 (11/27) at PMM.
Mr Speaker breezed five on firm turf in 1.02:00 (1/3) at PAY.
Street Gent breezed three on the training track in :37:34 (2/15) at BEL.
Albano breezed five in 1.00:00 (4/30) at FG.
Bashart breezed five in 1.04:00 (9/10) at PAY.
Bobby's Kitten breezed five on firm turf in :58:40 (1/29) at PMM.
Can'thelpbelieving breezed five on firm turf in 1.02:55 (18/29) at PMM.
Chas's Legacy breezed four in :48:90 (9/40) at PMM.
Gold Hawk breezed four in 49:80 (17/47) at FG.
Havana breezed five in 1.01:25 (2/7) at PMM.
Kristo worked six in 1.13:00 (1/5) at SA.
Mosler breezed five in 1:00.20 (1/10) at PAY.
Poker Player breezed five in 1.01:40 (14/30) at FG.
Top Billing breezed four in :50:00 (10/26) at PAY.
All in Blue breezed four in :50:50 (48/55) at PMM.
Anchor Down breezed five in 1:01.30 (12/32) at PMM.
Chitu breezed four in :47:80 (10/66) at SA.
Commanding Curve breezed six in 1.14:00 (1/7) at FG.
Commissioner breezed four in :49.10 (30/55) at PMM.
Constitution breezed four in :47:95 (2/55) at PMM.
Cool Cowboy breezed four in :48.60 (8/59) at TAM.
Coup de Grace breezed four in :48:00 (3/55) at PMM.
Danza breezed five in 1:02.70 (23/32) at PMM.
Dunkin Bend breezed four in :50:40 (52/109) at OP.
Edison breezed five in 1:02.90 (25/32) at PMM.
General a Rod breezed five in 1.00:12 (7/32) at GP.
Harpoon breezed four in :48.05 (6/55) at PMM.
Holy Wildcat breezed four in :49:20 (32/55) at PMM.
Hoppertunity worked five in 1:00.60 (20/53) at SA.
Intense Holiday breezed four in :48.75 (14/55) at PMM.
King Cyrus breezed five in 1.01:55 (13/32) at PMM.
Matterhorn breezed four in :48:75 (14/55) at PMM.
Midnight Hawk breezed four in :47:40 (6/66) at SA.
Monopolize breezed five in 1.01:70 (14/32) at PMM.
Ria Antonia breezed four in :47.00 (1/94) at FG..
Storming Inti breezed four in :48:40 (9/55) at PMM.
Surfing U S A breezed four in :48.65 (13/55) at PMM.
Texas Ryano breezed five in 1:01.60 (33/53) at SA.
Tonalist breezed five in 1.03:10 (1/6) at PAY.
Vicar's in Trouble breezed five in 1:01.20 (8/72) at FG.
Vinceremos breezed four in :49.30 (35/55) at PMM.
We Miss Artie breezed four in :48.00 (3/55) at PMM.
Wicked Strong breezed five in 1:00.20 (1/32) at PMM.
Artic Slope breezed five in 1.01:24 ( 45/70) at GP.
C. Zee breezed four in :48:80 (6/36) at CRC.
Cairo Prince breezed four in :48:75 (16/83) at PMM.
California Chrome worked four in :47:80 (6/19) at LA.
Cousin Stephen breezed four in :48:95 (27/83) at PMM.
East Hall breezed five in 1.01:11 ( 41/70) at GP.
Financial Mogul breezed a mile in 1.42:00 (1/1) at FAI.
Flat Gone breezed five in 1.00:80 (3/60) at FG.
Global View breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/14) at TAM.
Hy Kodiak Warrior worked six in 1.15:00 (1/3) at CRC.
Matador breezed five in 1.02:75 (14/22) at PMM.
Medal Count breezed five in 1.01:02 (39/70) at GP.
No Nay Never breezed five in :58:94 ( 3/70) at GP.
Notability breezed five in :59:50 (12/70) at GP.
Quick Indian breezed five in 1.01:60 (17/60) at FG.
Rise Up breezed four in :47:60 (2/70) at FG.
Samraat breezed four in :49:30 (41/83) at PMM.
Sassicaia breezed four in :48:95 (27/83) at PMM.
Shiekinator breezed four in :49:86 (51/77) at GP.
Smart Cover breezed four in :48:43 (24/77) at GP. Just Reported Today:
On Feb. 8, Hy Kokiak Warrior breezed four in :49:60 (14/38) at CRC.
Asserting Bear breezed five in 1.01:30 (4/5) at PBD.
Best Plan Yet worked five in 1.00:80 (1/6) at CRC.
Big Bazinga breezed five on firm turf in :59:75 (3/19) at PMM.
Bond Holder worked six in 1.14:00 (2/9) at SA.
Coltimus Prime breezed five in 1.00:89 (1/2) at PBD.
Wildcat Red breezed four in :49:02 (12/24) at GP.
Schoolofhardrocks worked five in :59:00 (1/6) at SA.
Tapiture breezed four in :50:00 (3/3) at OP.
Walt breezed four in :47:40 (1/3) at OP.
Clovelly breezed four in :51:00 (6/7) at PAY.
Deceived breezed three on the training track in :37:25 (6/21) at BEL.
Hertzalot breezed four in :52:00 (33/34) at TAM.
Honor Code breezed three in :35:66 (2/6) at GP.
In Trouble breezed five in :59:30 (1/8) at PMM.
Joint Custody breezed six in1.18:00 (1/1) at LRL.
Mexikoma breezed five in 1.00:65 (4/8) at PMM.
Noble Cornerstone breezed five in :59:82 (4/15) at GP.
Noble Moon breezed three on the training track in :38:88 (15/21) at BEL.
Street Gent breezed three on the training track in :37:25 (6/21) at BEL. Unreported at Equibase as of this post: Louies Flower breezed four at EVT.
Paganol breezed four in :48.20 () at EVT.
Son of Dixie breezed four at EVT.
Tanzanite Cat breezed four in :48.20 () at EVT.
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on left sidebar, or click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to firstname.lastname@example.org.
After you subscribe, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here.
A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES: "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."
After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. This product will be online after the Kentucky Derby.
A Little About Us
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the 12th consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.
While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.