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Apart from race handicapping, look for stories about Kentucky Derby theory and issues. These stories are also featured at Bloodhorse.com.

Monday, Feb. 8, 2010

REVISIONS TO OUR LISTS

Added

--FAST ALEX to Just In Case off his win of a two-turn maiden special weight at Fair Grounds on Saturday.

--HOTEP to Worth Watching after he won a two-turn allowance at Fair Grounds last Monday. Down with Dixie, already listed here, finished second.

--OVERCOMMUNICATION. He'd popped up on several Derby lists, so we decided to add him to Worth Watching. He then finished last in a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. Hopefully he's OK and better than that, so he'll be retained on the list for now.

--WILDCAT FRANKIE was added to Just In Case following his front-running win on Saturday of a one-mile allowance at Gulfstream Park. NOTE: Wildcat Frankie is not nominated to the Triple Crown.

Deleted

--BRAVO WHISKEY from Just In Case after a sixth-place finish in a Fair Grounds allowance last Monday.

--PISCITELLI, who had already been demoted to Just In Case after the Grade III Holy Bull. Several days after his disappointing run in the Holy Bull, it was revealed he is injured.

--RICKY TICK from Worth Watching after he disappointed in a two-turn allowance at Oaklawn Park on Thursday.

--WALKING THE BEACH from Just In Case after the second of two below-expectations performances this year.

--WINSLOW HOMER from Looking Good after the Grade III Holy Bull winner was declared off the Derby Trail with a stress fracture.

Promoted

From Worth Watching to Looking Good:

--NOBLE'S PROMISE. The colt finally put in a breeze at Gulfstream Park. He has plenty of earnings to make the Kentucky Derby.

--UH OH BANGO. Connections released plans to race him at Oaklawn Park, starting with the Grade II Rebel Stakes on March 13. Expect him to ship to Hot Springs from Turf Paradise soon.

From Just In Case to Worth Watching:

--DUBLIN, off a strong six-furlong workout at Oaklawn. Dublin is expected to make his 3-year-old debut in the Grade III Southwest Stakes next Monday after mixed results during his 2-year-old campaign.

--PEPPI KNOWS, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes on Saturday.

Demoted

From Worth Watching to Just In Case:

--EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY. Whatever it was that caused him to run through the outer rail at Aqueduct in the Whirlaway, the residual effects don't have any upside potential, and there is downside risk.

--LAUS DEO, after it was announced the Count Fleet winner been sent to a farm in Ocala for 30 days after one workout in South Florida. He'd been shipped there from New York.

Not Nominated

Not nominated to the Triple Crown (formerly listed on Worth Watching): BIG TEXAS DADDY, NORDIC TRUCE, OAK MOTTE, RULE BY NIGHT, STRIKE THE TIGER.

Not nominated to the Triple Crown (formerly listed on Just In Case): BACKWATER BLUES, BEAR TOUGH GUY, BOLTRONIC, BREWER, BRIDGETOWN, CARRINGTON VILLAGE, CONDEMNED, COYOTE LEGEND, DIXIE BAND, ENUMERATE, FLATTER THAN ME, GET MY FIX, KERA'S KITTEN, LION'S STORY, MILES HEIR, OUR COMMANDER, RED RALLY, QUAY LIME GUY, THANK U PHILIPPE, TAKE TURNS, TOUCH FOR A SHOCK, TURBO SPEED.

For more about these horses, including insight as to which ones were and were not surpising in their absence from the Triple Crown nominee list, please refer to our story on Feb. 7 Racing News.


Triple Crown Nominees
In case you missed it on Super Bowl Sunday, 366 were nominated to the Triple Crown. Please click the Triple Crown Nominees link for the story and charts with all the nominees and other information.


Kentucky Oaks Story Unfolding?
“I’m going down to Ocala next Monday to ride her on Ocala Sales Day for Mark Casse,” said prominent Canadian jockey Patrick Husbands at Fair Grounds yesterday. “Her name is Allegation, and she’s big like Zenyatta even though she just turned three years old."

Husbands, who's riding at Fair Grounds, a place he now considers his second home, said Allegation would be a big story this time next year.

"I rode Laragh (Grade I Hollywood Starlet winner), and this filly is much better than her. Next winter, when I come back down here, I’ll be a better story, too. I’ll be known as the rider of the ‘young Zenyatta.’ You’ll see.”


Quotes from Yesterday's Hallandale Beach Stakes
In which Bim Bam outbobbed Interactif (Worth Watching) at the Gulfstream Park finish line to win by a nose. Bim Bam took a narrow lead over Interactif early in the race, and the two battled it out down the stretch. Eibar Coa was on Bim Bam, and Kent Desormeaux rode Todd Pletcher's Interactif.

Kent Desormeaux: “Was it the trip I wanted? Yes. It went very well. But I’m shocked. I didn’t think I could get beat from the quarter-pole.”

David Brownlee, trainer of Bim Bam: “It didn’t look like there was much speed in the race, so our plan going in was to go to the lead and hope to slow it down, which is the way it went. From there it was up to Eibar. He knows the horse very well. We know he’ll fight back like he did the last time (when beaten a neck in Dania Beach), and they went 1:08 in that race.

"We’re going to stick to turf with him, and he’ll come back in the Palm Beach here.”

Eibar Coa: “My plan was to sit right behind the speed, but when they let me go, I was able to make the lead and then go that slow. And I know my horse is a fighter, and he doesn’t like to let horses go by. I knew if they challenged him he was going to fight back. When (Interactif) went by, I knew my horse was going to try, so I kept riding and digging because I knew he could come back, and he did.”

Fractions for the 1 1/16-mile race--:24.60, :49.91, 1:14.11, 1:36.46, 1:42.07.

Sunday, Feb. 7, 2010

Triple Crown Nominations Total 366
A total of 366 3-year-olds have been early-nominated for the Triple Crown. Topping the class 0f 2010 are Eclipse Award 2-year-old champion Lookin At Lucky and 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Vale of York.

For the full story, and charts with names of all nominees, leading owners, leading trainers, leading sires and other stats, please go to our Triple Crown Nominations Page.


Our Lists Revised with Triple Crown Nominations Release
There have been several deletions from our lists, mostly on the Just In Case page, with the release of the 2010 Triple Crown nominations.

Looking Good

All horses on this page remain intact.

Worth Watching

On the this page, there are five deletions, two of them somewhat surprising.

--Nordic Truce, the winner of Gulfstream Park's Dania Beach Stakes trained by Christophe Clement. Looks like he has grass racing in his future, but it is also noted he wasn't entered in Sunday's Hallandale Beach Stakes at Gulfstream.

--Rule by Night, winner by 7 1/4 lengths of a maiden race at Aqueduct for Steve Asmussen on Jan. 23. Amussen only nominated six horses to the Triple Crown this year, compared to 25 in 2009, but it's not like he doesn't train a bushel-basket full of sophomores.

Others from Worth Watching not nominated to the Triple Crown weren't quite as surprising:

--Big Texas Daddy, second in the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds and second in the Triple Sec at Delta Downs, looked to have distance limitations. Steve Asmussen trains.

--Oak Motte, third in the Grade III Delta Jackpot with its rich purse, hasn't put in a workout since then. Tom Amoss is trainer of record.

--Strike the Tiger, trained by Wesley Ward, became the first-ever American-trained horse to win at Royal Ascot; he'll probably be kept on turf.

Thiskyhasnolimit won the Grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs last November but has no workouts since then; however, he was one of only six nominated by Asmussen.

Just In Case

We did not think we'd see Aspire among the Triple Crown nominees--he hasn't had a published workout since he raced in Breeders' Cup--but he's there. Another nominated horse without a worktab for quite a while is Roman Invasion--nothing since Oct. 20.

Some Deletions We Expected

The following horses that were previously listed on Just In Case, but who are not showing any workouts in quite a long time, were not nominated: Bear Tough Guy, Boltronic, Bridgetown, Carrington Village, Condemned, Get My Fix, Quay Lime Guy and Touch for a Shock. Enumerate, another Asmussen trainee that wasn't nominated, hasn't worked since Jan. 13.

Some No-Shows We Didn't Necessarily Expect

--Backwater Blues, the Cindy Jones trainee that was recently a six-furlong allowance winner at Oaklawn.

--Brewer, an allowance winner at 1 1/16 mile on Jan. 16 at Oaklawn Park for Asmussen.

--Coyote Legend, winner of the Triple Sec for Bret Calhoun

--Dixie Band, winner of the Grade III Arlington-Washington Futurity last year for Wayne Catalano, was off the worktab seemingly forever, but he returned to it on Jan. 29.

--Flatter Than Me, runner-up to Backtalk in the Grade III Bashford Manor for Merrill Scherer, has had a steady worktab since Jan. 13.

--Kera's Kitten won the WEBN Stakes on Jan. 30 for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker.

--Lion's Story, a Jerry Hollendorfer trainee, has put in seven works since Dec. 28. He won second time out last Summer at Del Mar.

--Miles Heir, an effortless winner on Dec. 5 at Fair Grounds for Asmussen, was third in an allowance there on Jan. 16.

--Our Commander, the Gary Capuano-trained winner of the Maryland Juvenile Championship

--Take Turns, 3 1/4-length maiden special weight winner at Fair Grounds trained by Morris Nicks.

--Thank U Philippe, not all that surprising since his trainer, Marty Wolfson, said he wasn't a Kentucky Derby horse after his fourth-place finish in the Grade III Holy Bull.

--Turbo Speed, third in the Count Fleet Stakes on Jan. 2. Bernard Houghton trains.


Horsemen Go to Plan B at Santa Anita
“Blind Luck (Worth Watching) will have an easy work Tuesday,” said Jerry Hollendorfer assistant Dan Ward of the expected odds-on favorite for the Grade I Las Virgenes, which was canceled yesterday after rains messed up the problem-ridden track at Santa Anita. “She’s very smart. Two years ago, when Heatseeker ran second in the San Antonio, they had pushed it back so that there were only three weeks until the Santa Anita Handicap, and he won anyway, so there wasn’t much difference.”

Eoin Harty said American Lion (Looking Good) would work tomorrow for the Grade II Robert B. Lewis, also canceled yesterday. “No major adjustments,” the trainer said. “We’ll just try again.”

Mike Machowsky expressed similar sentiment when asked about unbeaten Lewis contender Caracortado (Worth Watching). “He’ll work five furlongs Monday, and there’s not much difference from his routine,” the trainer said. “We’ll just keep him in shape until the race.” But see also story below that has Caracortado planing to Oaklawn Park for the Southwest Stakes, to be run two days after the Lewis. Time will tell.


Pletcher Team Out in Force at Palm Meadows
Buddy's Saint Drills at Gulfstream Park
On the work tab at Palm Meadows today for Todd Pletcher were his arsenal of sophomores. Super Saver (Looking Good) breezed four furlongs in :48.20 (4/55) in his third workout of the year in anticipation of a start in something in March.

Aikenite (Worth Watching), the Grade III Holy Bull also-ran headed to the Grade II Fountain of Youth on Feb. 20, went five furlongs in 1:00.80 (6/53), handily.

Discreetly Mine (Worth Watching) worked five furlongs in 1:00.50 (3/53), handily, after a very brisk work last week. His next-start plans were wide open at last report.

Front-running allowance winner Eskendereya (Worth Watching), also bound for the Fountain of Youth, breezed five furlongs in 1:00.40 (2/53).

Finally, Grade III Delta Jackpot winner Rule (Looking Good) went five furlongs in 1:00.80 (6/53), handily. His next start is said the be either the Grade III Sam Davis on Feb. 13 at Tampa Bay Downs or the Grade II Risen Star on Feb. 20 at Fair Grounds.

At Gulfstream Park, Buddy's Saint (Looking Good) drilled six furlongs in 1:12.55 (1/4), handily, today for trainer Bruce Levine as he continues preparation for his much-anticipated 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth. It was the seventh workout since Jan. 1 for Buddy's Saint, winner of the Nashua Stakes and Remsen Stakes, both Grade II races, last Fall.


Eightyfiveinafifty Back in Training in Seven Days?
Eightyfiveinafifty (Just In Case) should be able to return to training in a week after receiving 14 stitches to repair a cut suffered when he ran through the outer rail on the first turn of the Whirlaway yesterday, trainer Gary Contessa said today. Jorge Chavez, who was unseated and taken to a hospital, but will be riding on Wednesday, his agent Mike Monroe said. X-rays and a CAT scan were negative.

He was nabbed inside Gate 6 by an Aqueduct security guard after suffering a two-inch cut on his right hind leg. Contessa said that when he was caught, Eightyfiveinafifty's bit was broken in two and the bridle was off his head, but Contessa told media at Aqueduct he didn't know when the equipment malfunction occurred. Monroe said Chavez told him the bit broke before the first turn, according to a report at DRF.com.

"We have absolutely dodged a bullet here," said Contessa. "This could have been the end of his career, and instead this horse is out a week … He has always been a very level-headed horse, so there is no reason to think he will not forget this incident and return to being the fastest three-year-old in the country.

"Yesterday was just another example of how difficult it is to have everything go right in this game," said Contessa. "Let's let the horse do the talking, and he will tell me when and where he returns to race again."


Shippers Might Abound for Southwest
DRF.com reported late Thursday afternoon that Oaklawn Park stakes coordinator Craig Lytel said flights Tuesday and Wednesday from South Florida and Southern California will bring in Caracortado (Worth Watching) (from California) and Mission Impazible (Just In Case) and Silver Craft (Just In Case) (from Florida) for the Grade III Southwest Stakes on Feb. 15, President's Day.

This was published before heavy rain canceled the Saturday card at Santa Anita, in which Caracortado was entered to run in the Grade II Robert B. Lewis, but the bad forecast was already in the books at the time.

The report said "at least four" would be flown in for the Southwest from those two locations. Other possibles weren't named.

Our research shows that Southern Cal resident Nextdoorneighbor (Worth Watching) was once said to be looking to the Southwest, but later the Grade III Sham on Feb. 27 was named. Track reports at Santa Anita notwithstanding, Conveyance (Looking Good) has also been mentioned for the Southwest.

Cool Bullet (Worth Watching) looks to be already set to come in from New Orleans.

Meanwhile, Dryfly (Worth Watching) and Dublin (Worth Watching) are at Oaklawn--with Pleasant Storm (Worth Watching) at Louisiana Downs--waiting for the invaders.


Turfway Live Card Canceled Due to Winter Storm
Due to lingering effects from the recent winter storm and continued sub-freezing temperatures, Turfway Park has canceled live racing for the second straight day. The track remains open for simulcasting. The cancellation is the second of the winter meet that began Jan. 1.

Turfway Park will add Monday, February 15, to its live racing schedule, Racing Secretary Rick Leigh announced today.  Nine races will be carded, with first post at 1:10pm ET. Turfway has decided not to reschedule the Likely Exchange Stakes, lost when Turfway canceled racing on Saturday.


California Horsemen Pick the Super Bowl
Horsemen at Santa Anita were at the ready with their thoughts on which team would win the big game, as the following random sampling attests:

Barry Abrams: Indianapolis. They have the experience. They’ve been there.

Ron Anderson: Under the total (of 56). I don’t bet against Peyton Manning.

Jerry Antonucci: Colts.

Bob Baffert: I’m a Manning man. I see them at the (Kentucky) Derby every year, Archie, Eli and Peyton. They all know me, so I’m rooting for the Colts.

Brian Beach: New Orleans and Drew Brees, because he’s a racing fan and lives in Del Mar.

Bob Bean: The Colts. They’re a better team.

David Bernstein: New Orleans.

James Cassidy: The Colts. Manning is the difference.

Vladimir Cerin: The Colts by 20.

Eddie Delahoussaye: New Orleans has been trying for a long time. It’s great to see them winning. I used to ride horses for the team’s owner, Tom Benson.

Caesar Dominguez: Saints. I’m rooting for Brees and the underdogs.

Ron Ebanks: Who Dat? If I don’t pick the Saints, my mom’s going to give me a whipping. I lived in New Orleans as a kid, and my mom lives in Lafayette.

Joe Ferrer: I lived in New Orleans all my life, and wore paper bags over my face when the Saints were so embarrassing they were called the Aints.

Carla Gaines: My big thing is the NCAA. Alabama is my team and they already came through, so I’ll root for the Saints.

Paddy Gallagher: I like the Dodgers, myself.

Rick Hammerle: The Saints. The Colts are the Atlanta Braves of football.

Eoin Harty: I met Drew Brees a couple times at Del Mar. He seems like a great guy so I’m pulling for him.

Dan Hendricks: New Orleans. They deserve it after 40 years of what they’ve been through there.

Jerry Hollendorfer: Sentimentally, New Orleans, but I think the Colts are the best team.

Kurt Hoover: Colts, 31-20. Peyton Manning does not lose these types of games.

Sandy Kilmer, wife of ardent horseplayer and original Saints quarterback, Billy Kilmer: Billy wants the Saints to win, but he’s torn because he knows the Manning family. Archie succeeded Billy in New Orleans in 1971, when Billy got traded to the Redskins.

Steve Knapp: The Saints. I’m pulling for the underdog, because they’ve never won it.

Brian Koriner: I’m a Reggie Bush fan.

Eric Kruljac: I’m rooting for the Saints, because of the people who endured Katrina and because of what Brees had to go through to reach the top. It’s a good underdog story.

Mike Machowsky: Colts.

Gary Mandella: Peyton Manning can win the game by himself. He’s too smart.

Richard Mandella: Who’s playing?

Ron McAnally: The Colts. Manning is more agile back there than Favre, and he gets his passes off quicker.

Sean McCarthy: I’m pulling for New Orleans. It would be fun to see them win it.

Charlie McCaul: Indianapolis. Manning will make the difference.

Henry Moreno: I’m rooting for the horses and Kobe. I played basketball at Corona in my youth.

Craig O’Bryan: New Orleans.

Dennis O’Neill: Indianapolis. I don’t think New Orleans is that good. I think it will be a blowout.

Doug O’Neill: The Colts.

Martin Pedroza: The Saints. I’m going with the underdog, and rooting for my man Joe Talamo, the Cajun.

Brad Pegram: The Saints. I love the city of New Orleans and I’d like to see it for that reason.

Mike Puype: The Colts easy.

Jay Robbins: Colts.

John Sadler: I’m happy with either team, but I like the Saints because they’ve never won.

Richie Silverstein: Indianapolis.

Danny Sorenson: I’m pulling for New Orleans. I like Drew Brees. It’s an even match. I just want to see a fantastic game.

Vic Stauffer: They could play the game 100 times and Indianapolis would win every time. Manning finds a way to win. He’s like Zenyatta.

Gary Stevens: Indy. I figure if we had Peyton Manning in Iraq, the battle would have been over a long time ago.

Gary Stute: I’m rooting for New Orleans. I like Drew Brees.

Chantal Sutherland: I think I’m watching the Oscars that day.

Richard Tedesco: New Orleans. It would make for a good story if they win, what with Katrina and all.

Toby Turrell: I’m the master of the obvious when I pick the Colts, but no guarantee on whether they’ll cover the point spread.

Jon White: I think either team can win. That said, I’ll pick Indianapolis because Peyton Manning is one of the all-time great QBs and seems in a zone right now. New Orleans was very lucky to beat Minnesota. But if the Saints win, it wouldn't surprise me because they look like a team of destiny.

Howard Zucker: Colts. They’ve been there before and it’s tough for a team to win the first time in the Super Bowl. The game should provide a lot of fireworks, though.

Saturday, Feb. 6, 2010

Bedlam in Whirlaway
With 1-5 favorite Eightyfiveinafifty bolting on first turn, things turned upside down in the 1 1/16-mile Whirlaway Stakes and led to a win by Peppi Knows in 1:47.10 on a track rated fast.

Jorge Chavez was unseated from Eightyfiveinafifty when he crashed into the outer rail; Chavez was taken to North Shore University Hospital for evaluation. After the race, trainer Gary Contessa said Eightyfiveinafifty was OK except for a two-inch cut in his right-hind leg, and that he didn't have any idea what went wrong. More....


Triple Crown Nominations Out Tonight
Triple Crown Nominations will be released at 12:01 a.m. ET on The Downey Profle.


Lewis, Las Virgenes, Strub Reset
Santa Anita Park has announced that three graded stakes--the Grade I Las Virgenes, the Grade II Robert Lewis and Grade II Strub Stakes--which were cancelled today due to rain have been rescheduled for Saturday, Feb. 13.

All three races will be redrawn, and all horses that were nominated are eligible to be entered.

Earlier in the day, and as reported here, Santa Anita announced its track was closed for today's racing due to recent rains in Arcadia and drainage problems on its synthetic track.

“We’re going to remain in consultation with the horsemen and we hope to have a decision as to when all of these important races will be rescheduled just as soon as possible,” said Santa Anita General Manager George Haines when the closure was announced.  “We know that in many cases, owners and trainers are plotting schedules with their respective horses and they need to know when these races are going to be offered back.  This is a very difficult situation and we will let everyone what our plan is as quickly as possible.

"This is obviously very disappointing,” said Haines.  “The main track is draining better than it was a month ago, but we got very substantial rain overnight and this morning, and as a result, we had standing water in several areas.

“As we’ve said all along, safety is going to be our number one priority in determining whether or not we’re able to run, and the situation this morning was not good.  That said, this weather system is supposed to be completely cleared out by late this afternoon and we are optimistic about being able to run tomorrow.”


Noble's Promise Works at GP
Noble's Promise (move to Looking Good off this news), owned by Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 LLC, breezed an easy three furlongs in 37:00 this Saturday morning at Gulfstream Park for trainer Ken McPeek. It was the first timed workout for Noble's Promise since he finished a game second, beaten three-quarters of a length by Lookin at Lucky, in the Grade I CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec. 19.

A son of Cuvee, Noble’s Promise ran a big race to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita on Nov. 7, beaten only a half-length for it all by Vale of York, with Lookin at Lucky second.

Noble’s Promise won the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 10 before shipping to California. McPeek gave him a month off after the CashCall, and he was flown back to South Florida on a Tex Sutton charter flight that brought several other runners to compete in Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 30.


Aqueduct Open Today
Aqueduct Racetrack officials say it will be open for live racing today and will remain open for simulcasting through approximately 7:45 p.m. ET. As of 6:00 a.m., there was only a light coating of snow at the track with one to three inches of the white stuff projected, according to a release this morning from Aqueduct.

Posted 8:14 a.m. ET

Note: Turf Melody was scratched from the Whirlaway at Aqueduct.


Turfway Live Racing Off Due to Storm
Due to the continuing winter storm, Turfway Park has canceled live racing today.  The Likely Exchange Stakes will be rescheduled. The track remains open for simulcasting.  Live racing is expected to resume on Sunday.

The cancellation is the first of the year for the Northern Kentucky track.


PICKS

Downey: Tiz Chrome, Dave in Dixie in the Robert B. Lewis. More....

Link to more information about the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Commish: Eightyfiveinafifty, Three Day Rush in the Whirlaway. More....

Link to more information about the Whirlaway Stakes.


LAST-MINUTE QUOTES

Robert B. Lewis Stakes
“I didn’t have a race for him. This is the first opportunity, and he’s doing fine.”--Eion Harty, explaining, sort of, the absence of American Lion from competition since Nov. 21.

“Each horse is different. Dave in Dixie, for instance, is making his first start since the Norfolk. It’s the start of the campaign for him, so we’re excited.”--John Sadler, responding to a question about how young horses develop from age two to three.

Whirlaway Stakes
"Yes, he might be too fast for his own good. There are times when he grabs that bit and he goes--that's my fear. Like I said last time, at least we know we got a hell of a sprinter if nothing else. He may get two turns. We're just trying to make him relax. I will be on the lead. I will be trying to slow him down as much as I can. If (Three Day Rush) chooses to challenge me, we're both going to hell."--Gary Contessa, trainer of Eightyfiveinafifty, quoted in Daily Racing Form

Gulfstream Turf
"He's coming into it well. He didn't really fire his best race in the Hollywood Derby (7th), and we aren't really sure why, but he's regrouped, and we think he's ready for this. I don't think he minds a little cut in the ground, so if we get a little rain Saturday morning, it won't affect him. He's handled everything from firm to yielding."--Todd Pletcher--Take the Points

Donn Handicap
"He's been training great and he's doing very well. Everything's gone according to plan, so we're looking forward to it. I think the Hal's Hope was a good comeback race for him. It was a solid effort, but not a career best and not a taxing race for him. I feel like he's training the best he ever has for this. There's plenty of competition.

"We're giving up a fairly sizable weight concession compared to the other horses. There are a lot of obstacles to overcome, and we're going to keep a close eye on the weather--he's not as good on the slop."--Todd Pletcher--Quality Road

"He's been doing super. He's been training very, very well. He had a strong breeze coming into the race, five-eighths in 58 and 3, and galloped out three-quarters in 1:11 with Kent Desormeaux, who will be riding him. He was on his back, and he was thrilled with the breeze, as was I. We couldn't be happier with where he's at (after finishing third in Ft. Lauderdale Stakes last out).

"It was a good performance, considering we were turning back to a one-turn mile, which is not a good configuration for him. He gets a bit rank in those one-turn races, and Manny (Cruz) had to restrain him a lot, which took a lot out of him. I'm looking forward to a two-turn race on Saturday. Horses tend to switch off or relax much better with two turns rather than one, and that's what we're looking for him to do."--Phil Gleaves--Mambo Meister

"I thought he ran his eyeballs out. That's for sure (second in Ft. Lauderdale Stakes last out). We couldn't fault him. We couldn't fault the rider (Eddie Castro). I thought he did a really nice job. He just wasn't the best horse that day.

"He'll do his thing - he never disgraces us or himself. I would not want him to get into a pace war (from the rail) in a mile-and-an-eighth race, so I'm hoping that if he breaks sharp, he can move a little bit away from the rail, and if not, fall out of the gate and get our spot and get ready to make a run for it."--Amy Tarrant--Kiss the Kid


Blue Grass Nomination Deadline
Nominations Close Wednesday, Feb. 17 for Keeneland’s Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. The nomination fee is $200. The $750,000, 1 1/8-mile race will be run on April 10, three weeks before the Kentucky Derby. Keeneland's Spring meeting runs from April 2-23.

Friday, Feb. 5, 2010


Downey: Birthday Boy Tiz Chrome Pick in Lewis
Saturday is the third anniversary of Tiz Chrome's foal date, and connections may very well have a birthday party in the winner's circle of the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes. But will Tiz Chrome be able to blow out the candles? More....


Commish: Winter Blast Blows in for Whirlaway
We might be seeing this one run on another day, with snow and 30 degrees in the forecast for the 31st running of The Whirlaway at Aqueduct. All eyes are obviously on the Beyer-busting speedball whose connections have already called him their Derby horse. Hey Andy? Any stats out there on what a young horse usually does after posting a 105 Beyer Speed figure going from sprint to route for the first time? More....


Weekend Weather: Forecast as of Friday Morning
At Santa Anita, one or two inches of rain is expected from Friday morning to Saturday, with 70% chances each day. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-60's. Drainage problems have occurred at the track in recent weeks. Aeration of the track has helped.

At Aqueduct on Saturday, there's an 80% chance of snow showers with a high of 28 degrees forecast. One to two inches of snow is expected on Saturday. Wind gusts occasionally over 40 mph. If racing is canceled Saturday, the Whirlaway will be set for Feb. 13.


28-Inch Snow Forecast Cancels Laurel Races
With a storm that is expected to dump up to 28 inches of snow in the Baltimore-Washington D.C. region over the next two days, the Maryland Jockey Club has cancelled live racing at Laurel Park for Friday and Saturday. There will be simulcasting at Laurel and its sister track, Pimlico Race Course, on Friday afternoon but not Saturday. Saturday’s $70,000 Marshua Stakes will now be contested on Monday, Feb. 15 as part of a card that is headlined by the Grade 2 General George Handicap.


Triple Crown Nominations Release Due Soon
Expect them to be released to the public either early Sunday or early Monday. Additional details are not available at this time.

The deadline for early nominations to the 2010 Triple Crown was Jan. 16 at a cost of $600. The deadline for late nominations to the 2010 Triple Crown is March 27 at a cost of $6,000.


Interactif Entered in Sunday Hallandale Beach
Wertheimer et Frere’s Kentucky homebred Interactif (Worth Watching) was last seen finishing a game third in the Grade II Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and he'll likely be a solid favorite for his 3-year-old debut in Sunday’s 1 1/16-mile Hallandale Beach Stakes on the turf at Gulfstream Park.

Kent Desormoux rode Interactif in his last three of five juvenile starts--saying once he thought the colt was trying to become his Kentucky Derby horse--and retains the mount for trainer Todd Pletcher. Interactif was beaten only three-quarters of a length for it all by English-trained favorite Pounced in Breeders’ Cup.

Interactif established his turf stakes credentials winning the Grade III With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga in early September and the Grade III Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 11. He made his first two starts sprinting on dirt, winning his debut at Monmouth Park and finishing eighth after showing early speed in the Grade II Sanford Stakes.

Interactif’s chief rivals in the field of eight would appear to be J D Farm’s Bim Bam, with Eibar Coa getting a return call from trainer David Brownlee; and Edgar Prado aboard Augustin Stable’s Cat Park for trainer Graham Motion.

Bim Bam is a Florida homebred son of Deputy Wild Cat that showed considerable ability racing on the main track at Calder last year, finishing third in all three open divisions of the Florida Stallion Stakes series behind Jackson Bend, punctuated by a stakes victory of his own in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes before the In Reality finale of the series on Oct. 17.

In two starts since then, Bim Bam captured the $100,000 Arthur Appleton Juvenile Turf on Nov. 14 in his grass course debut and ran a big one last out to finish second by a neck in the $100,000 Dania Beach Stakes on Jan. 16 by Nordic Truce. Nordic Truce is not coming back in Sunday’s race.

Cat Park won his turf debut in a Keeneland allowance race on Oct. 24 after breaking his maiden on the Tapeta synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs in August. The Pennsylvania homebred son of Tale of the Cat finished third in the Grand Canyon Stakes at Churchill Downs in late November and a close-up third last out in the Grade III Tropical Park Derby at Calder on Jan. 1.

Completing the field for the Hallandale Beach are Asphalt, owned by Joseph Riccelli, with Rajiv Maragh aboard; Thunder Brew (Roman Hill Farm, Jesus Castanon); Dean’s Kitten (Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Cornelio Velasquez); Lucas Brady (Gary Aiken, Cecelio Penalba; and Our Champion (Michael Sucher, John Velazquez).


Blind Luck Training Well for Las Virgenes
Based on her seven-length victory in the Grade I Hollywood Starlet on Dec. 20, Blind Luck (Worth Watching) will be a prohibitive favorite when she makes her 3-year-old debut in Saturday’s Grade I Las Virgenes Stakes.

A question in the mind of some is, can she transfer that form from one synthetic—Cushion Track—to another—Pro-Ride, even though she showed a fondness for Pro-Ride when she finished a troubled third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last Nov. 6?

“I think every trainer is always concerned about having a little bit of time between races and then coming back on a different surface,” trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said. “There’s a little anxiety there, but our filly’s been training really well over this track, so we’re not expecting her to regress. We’re expecting her to run a very good race.”

Purchased following a 13 1/4-length maiden victory last year at Calder Race Course, Blind Luck went on to earn $709,050 in 2009 with two Grade I triumphs, a second in another and a troubled third when beaten by less than one length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. “Blind Luck will have to regress quite a bit for anyone to have a chance," said Eric Kruljac, who trains rival La Nez.

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our 37-year statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby in the last 37 years.

On the link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

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In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
 
Big Brown, the 2.4-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.


Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth.

Interestingly, Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.


After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from the last 36 runnings of both stakes, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown, and DICK'S PICKS are offered. This product will be online after the 2009 Kentucky Derby.


The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for Breeders' Cup. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the seventh consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.

While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the current Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile--updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment Notes on over two dozen Kentucky Derby prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.

Dick's Picks' selections for the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday are posted.

Greg "The Commish" Johnson has taken on the Whirlaway at Aqueduct; his selections are posted.

Dick's and Greg's selections on the Road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby are summarized on their respective pages and show a good return on investment. Just click the links above for details.

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