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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby Horses at The Downey Profile®


SUBSCRIBER NOTICES
Research/Selections and More Subscription Page: April 18: Illinois Derby Highlights and Post-Race Quotes. ALSO: All of our prep race Highlights and Post-Races Quotes are archived and can be easily accessed as you do your Kentucky Derby research. Our selections for the Kentucky Derby prep races are also archived. Way to go Commish: Seven winners right on top of selections in 12 Derby Road races. NOTE: News/Commentary and our Lists will be updated continuously through the Triple Crown races.
Kentucky Derby Subscription Page: April 18: Updated The Downey Profile Rankings after defection of One Lucky Dane. All factors are in play. ALSO: Fractional times and analyses of the 2015 Derby prep races and much more..

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The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013.


 
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RACING NEWS
Kentucky Derby Points  Triple Crown Nominees  Derby Future Wager  NTRA Polls


Whiskey Ticket Refuses to Lose Illinois Derby
Whiskey Ticket siezed command leaving the far turn, then held off Conquest Curlinate by a nose to win the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. More


Bodhisattva Attains Top Spot in Tesio
Experience and a heady ride from jockey Trevor McCarthy proved to be a winning combination for Bodhisattva in the Federico Tesio Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico. More


Dortmund, Firing Line Work at Santa Anita
Saturday at Santa Anita, Dortmund and Firing Line put in their penultimate Kentucky Derby workouts, and connections said they were pleased. More


Pletcher Threesome Breeze at PBD
Materiality, Itsaknockout and Stanford breezed Saturday morning for Todd Pletcher ahead of the Kentucky Derby two weeks hence. More


Updated Kentucky Derby Leaderboard April 18 after Injury to One Lucky Dane

One Lucky Dane Out of Derby
One Lucky Dane has been declared out of the Kentucky Derby after Rafael Bejarano noticed he was off immediately after a workout this morning at Santa Anita. More


Three Work for Derby at Churchill, Carpe Diem at Keeneland
With a new training period for Kentucky Derby and Oaks horses now in effect, three Derby contenders breezed Saturday morning at Churchill Downs shortly after 8:30 ET, and Carpe Diem worked at Keeneland. More


Live Streaming Derby Workouts
Churchill Downs, in conjunction with TwinSpires.com, will provide live online streaming of Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks workouts when the exclusive 8:30-8:45 a.m. ET training window begins in earnest April 18. More


Updated Kentucky Derby Future Odds from Wynn Casino April 16

Upstart Back to Work
Upstart returned to the work tab Friday morning at Palm Meadows with a four-furlong breeze that was timed in :47.40. More


Pletcher Visits Carpe Diem at Keeneland
Trainer Todd Pletcher has spent the past couple of days at Keeneland checking out Carpe Diem and other runnners that have produced a meet-leading seven victories with three stakes wins. More


Divining Rod Pointed to Preakness
Divining Rod, a three-length winner of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, is being pointed to the Preakness Stakes according to trainer Arnaud Delacour. More


Radio, Magazine Appearances
Blood-Horse magazine asked Dick Downey to write a piece for its MarketWatch section focused on the Kentucky Derby. It was accepted, and you can read it in the issue now out with Dortmund on the cover. It's called "Fitting the Profile: The Evolving Trends of Kentucky Derby winners". The article is not published online. Along these same lines of shameless self promotion, Downey was a guest of John Engelhardt on his radio show on April 16. You can listen here archived.

American Pharoah Hits the Ground at CD
American Pharoah completed an uneventful Monday journey from Oaklawn Park to Churchill Downs on Monday afternoon.
Photo by Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer Photography. More


Brisnet "Ultimate PP's" for the Kentucky Derby in order of points

Pletcher Derby Trio Breeze in South Florida
Todd Pletcher sent three Kentucky Derby contenders to the training track at Palm Beach Downs early Saturday morning for breezes: Itsaknockout, Materiality and Stanford. More


Notice to Subscribers
In addition to free content and our traditional subscription product focusing on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, in 2015 we are offering a new product providing Research, Selections and More. This subscription contains our well-known Lists, Selections for all the Derby preps, a News/Commentary section and more. Read details here.


Complete Listing of 2015 Triple Crown Nominations

All Triple Crown PP's

TDP 2014 Wrapup
Here's the wrap of The Downey Profile 2014 Subscription Page info for the Triple Crown races. The Commish and Downey each selected California Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness -- and the Belmont Stakes, too. Click to read all the details here.

Read About The Downey Profile

Race Videos

Kentucky Derby 2015 Future Wager

Kentucky Derby 141: May 2, 2015

Preakness Stakes 140: May 16, 2015

Belmont Stakes 147: June 6, 2015

Downey in NTRA Poll
Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile will carries results here.

 

HANDICAPPING

How Our Selections Fared in Recent Years
The Commish
Dick's Picks

How Our Selections Fared in the 2014 Triple Crown
The Commish and Downey: Triple Crown Races

Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Triple Crown races appear only on our Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page -- along with The Downey Profile and other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.

Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby prep races, starting with the Lecomte Stakes, appear only on our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page.

To join the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page, and/or to join our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page, click here for credit card or here for PayPal.

 

ROAD WORK -- Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and Beyond

All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.

 

 

April 18
Another Lemon Drop breezed five in 1.01:40 (20/57) at CD.
Blofeld breezed five in 1.00:60 (4/5) at PBD.
Carpe Diem breezed four in 48.00 (5/76) at KEE.
Competitive Edge breezed four in 48:00 (1/4) at PBD.
Danzig Moon breezed five in :58.00 (1/57) at CD.
Dortmund worked five in 58:80 (1/59) at SA.
Firing Line worked five in 1.00:40 (22/59) at SA.
Indianaughty breezed five in 1.01:80 (33/57) at CD.
International Star breezed five in 1:01.80 (33/57) at CD.
Itsaknockout breezed four in 48:00 (1/4) at PBD.
Keen Ice breezed six in 1:13.20 (1/1) at CD.
Magic of Believing breezed five in 1.01:40 (20/57) at CD.
March breezed four on the training track in 48:08 (6/84) at BEL.
Materiality breezed five in 1.00:45 (2/5) at PBD.
One Lucky Dane worked five in 59:20 (6/59) at SA.
Pulmarack worked five in 1.01:80 (21/46) at GG.
Royal Son breezed five in 1.01:40 (13/39) at KEE.
Stanford breezed five in 1.00:45 (2/5) at PBD.
Tencendur breezed four in :47.16 (1/26) at BEL.
The Gomper worked five in 59:60 (7/47) at SA.
Toasting Master breezed five in 1.00:20 (8/57) at CD.
Wisecracker breezed four on the training track in 49:48 (40/84) at BEL.
Yockey's Warrior breezed four in 51:20 (54/57) at CD.

April 17
Bolo worked five in 1.00:20 (15/43) at SA.
Metaboss breezed five in 1.01:80 (11/22) at KEE.
Mr. Jordan breezed four in :48:20 (1/7) at GPW.
St. Joe Bay worked four in 49:80 (6/8) at SLR.
Upstart breezed four in 47:40 (1/6) at PMM.
Bolo worked five in 1.00:20 (15/43) at SA.
Metaboss breezed five in 1.01:80 (11/22) at KEE.
Mr. Jordan breezed four in :48:20 (1/7) at GPW.
St. Joe Bay worked four in 49:80 (6/8) at SLR.
Upstart breezed four in 47:40 (1/6) at PMM.

April 16
Ami's Flatter breezed four in 49:20 (9/14) at WO.
Frammento breezed four in 51:20 (36/36) at KEE.
Frosted breezed five in 1.01:35 (1/7) at PMM.
Unbridled Juan breezed four in 1.01:00 (4/17) at KEE.

April 15
Ocho Ocho Ocho worked five in 58:80 (2/15) at SA.
Tradesman breezed four in 51:90 (6/9) at PMM.
War Story breezed four in 49:40 (12/18) at CD.

April 14
Verraco worked four in 48:60 (15/26) at SA.

April 13
Bench Warrant worked five in 1.02:80 (39/40) at SA.
Cinco Charlie breezed five in 59:80 (2/22) at CD.
Decision Day breezed four in 48:60 (8/27) at WO.
First Down breezed four in 49:65 (9/18) at BEL.
Tough Customer breezed five in 1.01:40 (4/31) at KEE.
Where's the Moon breezed four in 48:60 (4/19) at SUN.
Wireless Future breezed four in 49:00 (7/38) at CD.

April 12
Chief Istan breezed four in 48:20 (8/80) at KEE.
Conquest Typhoon breezed five in 59:20 (1/37) at CD.
Cozmic One worked four in 50:00 (38/47) at SA.
Cross the Line worked four in 47:60 (1/22) at SA.
Firespike breezed five in 1.01:00 (1/5) at CDT.
Hootenanny breezed five on good turf in 1.05:60 (3/4) at KEE.
Task Force Glory breezed five in 1.01:20 (3/5) at CDT.
The Gomper worked five in 59:00 (2/44) at SA.

April 11
Aldrin breezed five in 1.01:60 (19/49) at KEE.
Blofeld breezed five in 1.02:00 (1/6) at PBD.
Competitive Edge breezed four in 49.06 (8/15) at PBD.
Data Driven breezed five in 1.01:60 (19/49) at KEE.
Eh Cumpari breezed five on the training track in 1.01:66 (9/38) at BEL.
Firing Line worked five in 59:20 (5/41) at SA.
Hero Ten All worked five on firm turf in 1.01:40 (1/1) at SA.
International Star breezed four in 49:00 (7/9) at CDT.
Itsaknockout breezed four in 49.06 (8/15) at PBD.
Keen Ice breezed five in 1.00:20 ( 4/31) at CD.
Materiality breezed four in :48.45 (4/15) at PBD.
Rock Shandy worked six in 1.13:40 (2/6) at SLR.
Royal Son breezed four in 49:40 (42/82) at KEE.
Stanford breezed four in :48.45 (4/15) at PBD.

April 10
Ernest Shackleton worked six in 1.15:60 (7/9) at SA.
Mr. Jordan breezed four in 49:00 (4/12) at GPW.

April 9
Cyrus Alexander worked four in 46:60 (1/10) at SA.
Great Stuff breezed five in 1.02:00 (9/15) at KEE.
Punctuate breezed three in 36:00 (2/5) at SA.
Unbridled Juan breezed four in 48:40 (9/34) at KEE.

April 8
Hillbilly Royalty breezed four in 49:60 (7/18) at OP.
Tradesman breezed five in 1.04:00 (2/3) at PMM.
War Story breezed four in 49.20 (7/15) at CD.

April 7
Cinco Charlie breezed five in 1.01:60 (2/12) at CD.
Decision Day breezed five in 1.02:20 (7/10) at WO.
Holiday Man breezed four in 49:80 (4/10) at OP.
The Truth or Else breezed four in 48:40 (2/10) at OP.
Verraco worked five in 1.01:00 (12/32) at SA.
Wireless Future breezed four in 49:40 (25/40) at KEE.

April 6
Bayerd breezed three in 37:60 (6/7) at OP.
Bench Warrant worked four in 47:80 (2/22) at SA.
Bold Conquest breezed four in 48:60 (4/18) at OP.
Conquest Typhoon breezed four in 48:20 (8/31) at CD.
Cozmic One worked six in 1.15:00 (6/9) at SA.
Metaboss worked five in 59:40 (1/28) at KEE.
Mr. Z breezed four in 48:20 (2/18) at OP.
Startup Nation breezed four in 49:45 (4/10) at PMM.
Tiznow R J breezed five in 1.01:60 (6/15) at CD.

April 5
Aldrin breezed five in 1.01:40 (5/37) at KEE.
Amerian Pharoah worked six in 1.11:60 (1/25) at SA.
Bluff breezed four in 48:20 (14/86) at KEE.
Bridget's Big Luvy breezed four in 47:40 (1/12) at OP.
Data Driven breezed five in 1.01:40 (5/37) at KEE.
Divining Rod breezed four in 48:40 (18/86) at KEE.
Firespike breezed four in 48:20 (1/13) at CDT.
Hero Ten All worked six on firm turf in 1.15:60 (3/5) at SA.
Majestico breezed five in 1.00:40 (3/21) at CD.
Night Prowler breezed four in 49:80 (64/86) at KEE.
Task Force Glory breezed four in 51:20 (12/13) at CDT.
Tough Customer breezed five in 1.03:00 (28/37) at KEE.
The Gomper worked five in 58:80 (2/53) at SA.

April 4
Blofeld breezed four in 48:74 (4/18) at PBD.
Comfort breezed five in 1.01:66 (3/4) at PBD.
Conquest Bigluck E breezed five in 1.00:80 (3/19) at WO.
Far Right breezed four in 48:80 (12/51) at OP.
Iron First worked five in 1.02:80 (35/41) at SA.
Jess's Dream breezed five in 1.03:40 (1/2) at SST.
Madefromlucky breezed four in 48:74 (4/18) at PBD.
Outlash breezed five on a good track in 1.01:40 (5/15) at KEE.
Where's the Moon breezed four in 48:60 (3/11) at SUN.

April 3
Firing Line worked four in 48:00 (6/24) at SA.
I Spent It breezed five in 59:20 (1/13) at OP.
Well Maybe worked five in 1.01:00 (10/16) at LA.

 

MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.

After you subscribe, you can click here to sign in.


A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

 

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

 

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.

A Little About Us and Our Products


The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.

While the web site has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.

Our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page covers our Four Lists that are constantly updated (130 horses listed at outset: Leading Names, Contenders, Wait and See, Watching), plus links to the specific lists horses entered in stakes races, Derby prep race selections, miscellaneous pre-race commentary, updates, prep race probables/possibles and the ever-important post-race quotes -- all conveniently linked from one page.

 

The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile, LLC. © 2003-2015

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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