Research/Selections and More Subscription Page: March 28: Florida Derby Highlights and Post-Race Quotes. March 28: Louisiana Derby Highlights and Post-Race Quotes.
March 28: UAE Derby Highlights and Post-Race Quotes. News/Commentary and our Lists are updated daily.
Kentucky Derby Subscription Page: March 29: The Downey Profile rankings updated.
To read about The Downey Profile, click here.
Two Subscription Products -- Three Ways to Subscribe
By Credit Card -- Subscribe here.
By PayPal -- Subscribe here.
By Mail Payment -- Send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org and we'll make arrangements.
Trouble with your username or password? Contact us at email@example.com
The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013.
Kentucky Derby Points Triple Crown Nominees Derby Future Wager NTRA Polls
Materiality Clears the Way in Florida Derby
Materiality, making his first start in a graded stake, edged Upstart to win the Florida Derby. Photo by Kenny Martin. More
Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard Updated March 28
International Star Hits Fair Grounds Trifecta
He won the Lecomte Stakes, he won the Risen Star Stakes, and now International Star is also the winner of the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. More
Dortmund, Prospect Park Drill for SA Derby
Dortmund and Prospect Park, the favorite and likely second choice for the Santa Anita Derby, each had their final major drills Saturday. More
Mubtaahij Kentucky-Bound After UAE Derby Win
Mubtaahij (IRE) earned 100 Kentucky Derby points with an easy win of the UAE Derby and is now on his way to Louisville, trainer Mike de Kock said. More
Competitive Edge Sharp in Comeback Win
In his first start since capturing last September’s Hopeful Stakes, Competitive Edge rolled home to an 8 1/4-length victory in the seven-furlong Tamarac Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Friday. More
Derby Future Wager Pool 4 Live Odds
Future Wager Pool 4
Blue Grass Security Measures Announced
Keeneland has announced security measures for horses participating in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. More
Pool 4 Morning Line Favors Baffert Duo
Bob Baffert trains the two morning line favorites in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4, American Pharoah and Dortmund. More
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4
Nine Late Triple Crown Nominations Led by Dubai Sky
Dubai Sky headlines the list of nine late Triple Crown nominations after capturing the Spiral Stakes on Saturday. The Bill Mott trainee ran his winning streak to four races in a field of 11 at Turfway Park. More
Notice to Subscribers
In addition to free content and our traditional subscription product focusing on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, in 2015 we are offering a new product providing Research, Selections and More. This subscription contains our well-known Lists, Selections for all the Derby preps, a News/Commentary section and more. Read details here.
New York Steps Up Security Rules
Standing security protocols for horses racing in grade 1 races with purses of $1 million or more have been established in New York. The new protocols will begin with the April 4 Wood Memorial. More
Kentucky Derby Future Odds from Wynn Casino Updated March 24
SA Derby Workers Get Primed; Baffert Compares Stars
Dortmund worked a bullet six furlongs in company Saturday at Santa Anita in 1:12 (1/16) with regular rider Martin Garcia aboard. Afterward, Bob Baffert compared his stars. More
Link to 162 Toyota Blue Grass Nominations
Complete Listing of 2015 Triple Crown Nominations
All Triple Crown PP's
TDP 2014 Wrapup
Here's the wrap of The Downey Profile 2014 Subscription Page info for the Triple Crown races. The Commish and Downey each selected California Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness -- and the Belmont Stakes, too. Click to read all the details here.
Read About The Downey Profile
Kentucky Derby 2015 Future Wager
Kentucky Derby 141: May 2, 2015
Preakness Stakes 140: May 16, 2015
Belmont Stakes 147: June 6, 2015
Downey in NTRA Poll
Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile will carry results here when the poll resumes.
How Our Selections Fared in Recent Years
How Our Selections Fared in the 2014 Triple Crown
The Commish and Downey: Triple Crown Races
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Triple Crown races appear only on our Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page -- along with The Downey Profile and other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby prep races, starting with the Lecomte Stakes, appear only on our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page.
To join the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page, and/or to join our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page, click here for credit card or here for PayPal.
ROAD WORK -- Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and Beyond
All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.
Blofeld breezed four on a good track in 48:93 (10/19) at PBD.
Bluegrass Singer breezed three in 37:00 (4/8) at GPW.
Carpe Diem breezed four on a good track in 47:98 (3/19) at PBD.
Classy Class breezed four on the training track in 48:59 (12/45) at BEL.
Decision Day breezed five in 1.03:00 (8/9) at PMM.
Divining Rod breezed five in 1.02:80 (3/11) at TBD.
Dortmund worked six in 1.11:60 (1/22) at SA.
Eh Cumpari breezed four in 51:00 (24/24) at PMM.
Far from Over breezed four on a good track in 48:98 (14/19) at PBD.
Frammento breezed four in 48:40 (4/24) at PMM.
Hero Ten All worked five on firm turf in 1.01:60 (2/5) at SA.
Madefromlucky breezed four on a good track in 49:23 (16/19) at PBD.
Ostrolenka breezed four on the training track in 48:59 (12/45) at BEL.
Prospect Park worked five in 1.01:20 (19/34) at SA.
Rock Shandy worked six in 1.15:20 (2/5) at SLR.
Chief Istan breezed five in 59:60 (2/8) at FG.
Conquest Bigluck E breezed five in 58:40 (1/14) at OTC.
Danzig Moon breezed four in 47:60 (1/19) at PMM.
Gorgeous Bird breezed five in 1.01:00 (5/27) at KEE.
Great Stuff breezed four in 48:40 (1/9) at CD.
Hidden Danger breezed three in 34:60 (1/9) at OP.
Jess's Dream breezed four in 51:80 (1/3) at SST.
Outlash breezed five in 1.02:39 (1/2) at PBD.
Pulmarack worked five in 1.00:40 (1/16) at SA.
The Gomper worked four in 48:00 (4/30) at SA.
Tough Customer breezed four in 50:40 (19/22) at KEE.
Well Maybe worked six in 1.13:00 (1/5) at LA.
Bluff breezed five in 1.00:60 (5/10) at FG.
Hillbilly Royalty breezed five in 59:80 (2/15) at OP.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 49:65 (9/22) at PMM.
Unrivaled breezed five in 1.02:20 (2/2) at FAI.
Wisecracker breezed four in 48:75 (4/22) at PMM.
Bolo worked six in 1.12:00 (2/7) at SA.
Ocho Ocho Ocho worked five in 1.01:00 (12/20) at SA.
The Truth or Else breezed five in 1.00:40 (3/37) at OP.
Cross the Line worked a mile in 1.44:40 (1/1) at GG.
Hootenanny breezed five in 1.01:40 (6/8) at TP.
Lord Nelson breezed five in 59:40 (1/11) at SA.
Mr. Z breezed four in 50:20 (40/88) at OP.
Nasa breezed four in 48:52 (4/33) at PRX.
Verraco worked five in 1.02:60 (17/17) at SA.
Ami's Flatter breezed four in 48:90 (2/19) at PMM.
Bold Conquest breezed four on a muddy track in 1.01:60 (2/10) at OP.
Cinco Charlie breezed four in 52:40 (41/41) at FG.
Gold Shield breezed four in 50:28 (13/20) at GP.
Majestico breezed four on a muddy track in 48:00 (1/26) at OP.
My Point Exactly breezed five in 1:03.86 (6/7) at GP.
Night Prowler breezed four on firm turf in 50:75 (17/35) at PMM.
Bad Read Sanchez worked six in 1.12:40 (2/15) at SA.
Competitive Edge breezed four in 51:60 (7/10) at PBD.
Defondo breezed four in 48:80 (16/82) at FG.
El Kabeir breezed five on the training track in 59:90 (1/23) at BEL.
Indianaughty breezed five in 1.01:67 (12/30) at GP.
International Star breezed five in 1.02:47 (19/30) at GP.
Majestic Affair breezed four on the training track in 48:05 (7/87) at BEL.
March breezed five on the training track in 1.01:02 (3/23) at BEL.
Midhmaar breezed five in 1.02:90 (10/12) at PMM.
Tiz Shea D breezed four in the training track in 47:96 (1/87) at BEL.
Toasting Master breezed five in 1.03:10 (25/30) at GP.
Aldrin breezed five in 1.01:00 (8/24) at PMM.
Blofeld breezed four in 50:92 (27/30) at PBD.
Bronze Star breezed three in 36:80 (1/4) at SA.
Call Me Crazy breezed four in 50:37 (53/67) at GP.
Calmbeforethestorm breezed five in 1.02:08 (11/34) at GP.
Carpe Diem breezed four in 48:92 (7/30) at PBD.
Comfort breezed five in 1.00:86 (3/8) at PBD.
Danzig Moon breezed five in 59:50 (2/24) at PMM.
Daredevil breezed four in 48:14 (1/30) at PBD.
Data Driven breezed four in 48:95 (10/53) at PMM.
Divining Rod breezed four in 49:80 (24/48) at TBD.
Dortmund worked six in 1.12:00 (1/16) at SA.
Eh Cumpari breezed five in 1.02:40 (18/24) at PMM.
Far from Over breezed five in 1.01:76 (7/8) at PBD.
Itsaknockout breezed four in 48:79 (5/30) at PBD.
J S Bach breezed five in 1.01:76 (7/8) at PBD.
Materiality breezed four in 48:79 (5/30) at PBD.
Ocean Knight breezed five in 1.02:40 (1/2) at SST.
Ostrolenka breezed five in 1.00:53 (1/8) at PBD.
Prospect Park worked six in 1.11:00 (1/8) at SLR.
Pulmarack worked five in 1.00:00 (10/38) at SA.
Rock Shandy worked six in 1.12:00 ( 2/8) at SLR.
St. Joe Bay worked six in 1.12:00 (2/8) at SLR.
Stanford breezed four in 48:14 (1/30) at PBD.
Startup Nation breezed three in 37:45 (2/4) at PMM.
Upstart breezed five in 59:55 (4/24) at PMM.
Yockey's Warrior breezed five in 1.02:80 (13/22) at FG.
Blame Jim breezed four on the training track in 48:77 (8/89) at BEL.
Bullheaded Boy breezed four on the training track in 49:58 (30/89) at BEL.
Classy Class breezed four on the training track in 50:11 (44/89) at BEL.
Cozmic One worked five in 1.01:20 ( 36/59) at SA.
Cross the Line worked seven in 1.30:00 (1/1) at GG.
Decision Day breezed four in 49:00 ( 4/31) at PMM.
Dontbetwithbruno breezed four on the training track in 49:58 (30/89) at BEL.
Frosted breezed five in 59:85 (1/18) at PMM.
Hidden Danger breezed four on a muddy track in 50:20 (2/6) at OP.
Keen Ice breezed five in 1.02:06 (9/24) at GP.
Lieutenant Colonel breezed four on the training track in 49:47 (23/89) at BEL.
Mr. Jordan breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/11) at GPW.
Outlash breezed four in 50:98 (5/5) at PBD.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 50:05 (16/31) at PMM.
The Gomper worked four in 47:60 (4/45) at SA.
Tizquick breezed five on the training track in 1.00:97 (1/14) at BEL.
Well Maybe worked five in 58:80 (1/17) at LA.
Wisecracker breezed four in 49:85 (13/31) at PMM.
Bolo worked four in 47:80 (13/44) at SA.
Far Right breezed four in 1.00:80 (2/28) at OP.
First Down breezed four in 49:15 (9/31) at PMM.
Frammento breezed four in 47:90 (1/31) at PMM.
Hero Ten All worked five in 58:80 (1/1) at SA.
Hillbilly Royalty breezed five in 1.01:60 (5/28) at OP.
Vici breezed four in 49:20 (5/21) at FG.
Bluff breezed five in 1.01:60 (8/17) at FG.
Cinco Charlie breezed four in 51:80 (35/38) at FG.
Hootenanny breezed five in 1.01:20 (6/16) at TP.
Ocho Ocho Ocho worked five in 1.00:80 (9/17) at SA.
War Story breezed five in 58:80 (1/17) at FG.
Why Two worked three in 34:60 (1/5) at SA.
Ami's Flatter breezed four in 49:45 (11/22) at PMM.
Bayerd breezed four in 49:80 (11/70) at OP.
Chief Istan breezed five in 1.01:00 (2/15) at FG.
Cyrus Alexander worked four in 49:00 (13/24) at SA.
Gold Shield breezed four in 48:53 (4/10) at GP.
Jess's Dream breezed four on a good track in 49:80 (1/2) at SST.
Nasa breezed four in 49:46 (21/52) at PRX.
Verraco breezed three in 37:00 (1/4) at SA.
Dubai Sky breezed four in 48:41 (5/24) at GP.
Majestico breezed five on a good track in 1.02:00 (3/15) at OP.
March breezed five on the training track in 1.01:05 (1/28) at BEL.
Private Prospect breezed five on a good track in 1.05:40 (14/15) at OP.
Mr. Z breezed five on a good track in 1.02:00 (3/15) at OP.
Tiznow R J breezed five in 1.01:20 (7/20) at FG.
Tough Customer breezed five in 1.01:20 (7/20) at FG.
Aldrin breezed five in 1.02:30 (14/20) at PMM.
Competitive Edge breezed four in 49:41 (3/15) at PBD.
Defondo breezed four in 51:60 (96/119) at FG.
Firing Line worked five in 59:80 (7/40) at SA.
Gorgeous Bird breezed five in 1.00:00 (2/20) at PMM.
Indianaughty breezed five in 1.02:07 (19/36) at GP.
Midhmaar breezed five in 1.01:30 (8/20) at PMM.
Mischief Clem worked four in 49:40 (15/34) at SA.
Pulmarack worked four in 49:40 (9/22) at SA.
Wireless Future breezed five in 1.00:80 (3/31) at TP.
Yockey's Warrior breezed four in 50:60 (69/119) at FG.
Another Lemon Drop breezed four in 48:80 (6/74) at FG.
Blofeld breezed three in 37:41 (3/4) at PBD.
Data Driven breezed four in 49:45 (10/42) at PMM.
Far from Over breezed five in 1.01:03 (1/4) at PBD.
Firespike breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/7) at TP.
International Star breezed four on a muddy track in 1.02:83 (9/18) at GP.
Itsaknockout breezed four in 49:58 (15/26) at PBD.
J S Bach breezed four in 48:65 (5/26) at PBD.
Ostrolenka breezed four in 48:02 (3/26) at PBD.
Rock Shandy worked five in 1.00:60 (4/12) at SLR.
Royal Son breezed four in 49:58 (15/26) at PBD.
St. Joe Bay worked six in 1.13:60 (2/8) at SLR.
Task Force Glory breezed five in 1.00:20 (2/7) at TP.
Texas Red breezed four in 51:40 (78/78) at SA.
Bad Read Sanchez worked seven in 1.30:20 (1/2) at SA.
Bench Warrant worked six in 1.14:80 (24/45) at SA.
Conquest Typhoon worked six in 1.13:80 (6/33) at SA.
Ernest Shackleton worked five in 1.01:60 (27/54) at SA.
Frosted breezed six in 1.11:65 (1/4) at PMM.
Imperia breezed four in 48:90 (2/13) at PMM.
Iron Fist breezed five on a good track in 1.02:80 (1/2) at SST.
Metaboss worked six in 1.14:80 (15/33) at SA.
Mr. Jordan breezed four in 48:80 (3/14) at GPW.
Outlash breezed three in 37:45 (1/5) at PBD.
Soul Driver worked five in 1.00:40 (2/22) at SA.
Upstart breezed six in 1.13:40 (2/4) at PMM.
Where's the Moon breezed five in 1.02:40 (18/26) at SUN.
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to firstname.lastname@example.org.
After you subscribe, you can click here to sign in.
A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES: "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."
In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.
After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.
A Little About Us and Our Products
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.
While the web site has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.
Our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page covers our Four Lists that are constantly updated (130 horses listed at outset: Leading Names, Contenders, Wait and See, Watching), plus links to the specific lists horses entered in stakes races, Derby prep race selections, miscellaneous pre-race commentary, updates, prep race probables/possibles and the ever-important post-race quotes -- all conveniently linked from one page.