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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby Horses at The Downey Profile®


SUBSCRIBER NOTICES -- Congratulations to American Pharoah for his Preakness Victory!
Research/Selections and More Subscription Page: Leading Names -- Our Profiles of Belmont Stakes Horses. Also: All Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes Horse Profiles are complete. All of our Kentucky Derby prep race Highlights and Post-Race Quotes are archived and can be easily accessed as you do your Belmont Stakes research. Our selections for the Kentucky Derby prep races are also archived. Way to go Commish: Seven winners right on top of selections in 12 Derby Road races.
Kentucky Derby Subscription Page and Preakness + Belmont Package. May 22: We've now posted Segment NOTES 5 - 8. May 20; Segment NOTES 1 - 4 posted. Subscribers, please continue using the same username and password. If you are signed in, you may need to sign out and re-enter the username and password.

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RACING NEWS
Kentucky Derby Points  Triple Crown Nominees  Derby Future Wager  NTRA Polls


American Pharoah Breezes for Belmont; War Story Out
At Churchill Downs on Tuesday, 10 days after winning the Preakness Stakes, American Pharoah put in a workout under Martin Garcia to the admiration of onlookers.
Photo by Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer PhotographyMore


NYRA: Plan for Ingress/Egress 'Delays' on Big Day
The New York Racing Association today warned there will be "significant delays" entering and exiting Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes day. More


'Pharoah' Continues March to Belmont
American Pharoah continued his daily training at Churchill Downs by galloping 1 1/4 mile over a sloppy track on Memorial Day with Jorge Alvarez up.
More


Video: American Pharoah Monday Gallop at CD

Stewart Likes What He Sees
Trainer Dallas Stewart said he could not have been more pleased with the appearance of Tale of Verve Sunday morning after a 1 1/2-mile gallop. More


Mubtaahij Breezes Again
Mubtaahij breezed an easy five furlongs Sunday in his third official work since arriving in New York on May 15 and fourth overall since the Kentucky Derby. More


Baffert: One Day at a Time; Churchill to Stream 'Pharoah' and Others
The Belmont Stakes and a chance at a Triple Crown winner is less than two weeks away, but the clock keeps ticking at the same rate for Bob Baffert. More


One Work or Two for Pharoah?
Assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes said today he's unsure when Bob Baffert will direct that American Pharoah breeze for the Belmont Stakes. Baffert plans to return to Louisville for a one-day stopover on Tuesday. More


Zito Rebids for Upset
Nick Zito had Belmont Stakes hopeful Frammento put in another workout over the Oklahoma Training Track in Saratoga Springs this morning as the stable again works toward trying to pull off an upset of seismic proportion. More


Video: American Pharoah Gallops Saturday

Quartet of Belmont Contenders Breeze at the Track
Four hopefuls for the Belmont Stakes, three of them from the barn of Todd Pletchcer, worked today on the main track at Belmont Park. More


Conquest Curlinate Takes Next Step
Norman Casse, assistant to his father Mark, said he was pleased with the move and that the Ontario-bred son of Curlin should handle the 1 1/2-mile distance. More


Routine Gallop for American Pharoah
Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner American Pharoah had a routine one-mile gallop under exercise rider Jorge Alvarez on Friday. It was his first gallop since last Saturday's Preakness. American Pharaoh is expected to put in a workout next weekend, a few days before his anticipated ship to Belmont Park for the third leg of the Triple Crown.


All Well for American Pharoah
American Pharoah, who earned his sixth win in seven starts by taking the Preakness last Saturday, returned to the track Thursday for the first time since then. He jogged at Churchill Downs. In other news, Mr. Z will get a break.
More


Report: Frosted Confirmed for Belmont
A Thursday morning report says Frosted is confirmed for the Belmont Stakes on June 6. More


Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles PP's Free from Brisnet

Belmont Stakes Future Odds from Wynn Casino -- May 20

Mubtaahij in Third Workout Since Derby
Today at Belmont Park, Mubtaahij (IRE) breezed four furlongs on the main track, his third workout since the May 2 Kentucky Derby More


American Pharoah Departs Pimlico
The Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner leaves Pimlico Monday morning for Churchill Downs. He's the third colt in the last four years to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown series. American Pharoah will train at Churchill Downs before heading to New York for the June 6 Belmont Stakes. He's projected to ship to Belmont Park on June 3.


Derby-Preakness Winner Doing Well Sunday
Bob Baffert said Sunday that American Pharoah appears to have come out of the Preakness Stakes in good shape. More


Daily Preakness Update: Sunday, May 17

Belmont Stakes Field Takes Shape
At least eight horses look likely to face American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes on June 6. It's the third time in the last four years that a sweep of the Triple Crown series will be on the line. More


Sloppy Preakness Goes to American Pharoah
With American Pharoah one of only three Preakness Stakes horses with experience on a sloppy track, he splashed to victory shortly after a thunderstorm rolled in to Pimlico Race Course. Read details here.

                                   
Derby by the Speed Numbers
Or, Who'll Get to the Eighth Pole First?
In 56 of the last 60 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader. In all, 43 of the last 60 winners, or 72%, were on the lead at the eighth pole. More


Notice to Subscribers
In addition to free content and our traditional subscription product focusing on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, in 2015 we are offering a new product providing Research, Selections and More. This subscription contains our well-known Lists, Selections for all the Derby preps, a News/Commentary section and more. Read details here.


Complete Listing of 2015 Triple Crown Nominations
All Triple Crown PP's

TDP 2014 Wrapup
Here's the wrap of The Downey Profile 2014 Subscription Page info for the Triple Crown races. The Commish and Downey each selected California Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness -- and the Belmont Stakes, too. Click to read all the details here.

Read About The Downey Profile

Race Videos

Kentucky Derby 2015 Future Wager

Kentucky Derby 141: May 2, 2015

Preakness Stakes 140: May 16, 2015

Belmont Stakes 147: June 6, 2015

Downey in NTRA Poll
Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile will carries results here.

 

HANDICAPPING

How Our Selections Fared in Recent Years
The Commish
Dick's Picks

How Our Selections Fared in the 2014 Triple Crown
The Commish and Downey: Triple Crown Races

Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Triple Crown races appear only on our Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page -- along with The Downey Profile and other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.

Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby prep races, starting with the Lecomte Stakes, appear only on our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page.

To join the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page, and/or to join our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page, click here for credit card or here for PayPal.

 

ROAD WORK -- Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and Beyond

All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.

 

 

May 26
American Pharoah breezed four in 48.00 (5/22) at CD.
Overcontrol breezed three on the training track in 38:55 (7/8) at BEL.
Souper Colossal breezed five in 1.03:60 (8/8) at MTH.
Unrivaled breezed five in 1.00:54 (1/12) at PRX.
War Story breezed five in 1.01:40 ( 11/15) at CD.
Wisecracker breezed five in 1.00:40 (1/3) at GTC.
Wolf Man Rocket breezed four in 47:60 (1/22) at CD.

May 25
Bold Conquest breezed four in 50:80 (30/44) at CD.
Cyrus Alexander worked five in 1.00:00 (11/49) at SA.
Data Driven breezed four on the training track in 49:88 (10/31) at SAR.
Holy Boss breezed four on the training track in 51:24 (12/19) at BEL.
Tiznow R J breezed five in 1.00:60 (3/14) at CD.
Unbridled Juan breezed five in 1.01:00 (4/13) at WO.

May 24
Cinco Charlie breezed five in 1.00:55 (5/26) at BEL.
Conquest Typhoon breezed five in 59:60 (1/46) at WO.
Far Right breezed four in 48:20 (3/50) at CD.
Gold Shield breezed five in 1.00:34 (3/26) at BEL.
Mubtaahij breezed five in 1.03:16 (20/26) at BEL.
Night Prowler breezed five on firm inner turf in 1.02:71 (15/19) at BEL.
Ocho Ocho Ocho breezed five in 1.02:00 (35/46) at SA.
The Gomper worked five in 50:00 (18/20) at SA.
Tradesman breezed four in 50:77 (36/50) at BEL.
Unblunted breezed five in 1.00:00 (11/67) at SA.
Where's the Moon worked four in 48:20 (3/10) at ALB.

May 23
Another Lemon Drop breezed four in 49:80 (59/80) at CD.
Bolo breezed five on firm turf in 1.04:00 (7/7) at SA.
Classy Class breezed four in 47:75 (5/52) at BEL.
Cozmic One breezed four in 48:90 (27/52) at BEL.
Cross the Line worked seven in 1.26:00 (1/1) at SA.
Curlino breezed four in 48:20 (11/80) at CD.
Firespike breezed four in 49:20 (8/16) at CDT.
Frammento breezed four on the training track in 49.30 (11/50) at SAR.
Hillbilly Royalty breezed five in 1.02:80 (15/17) at PRM.
Itsaknockout breezed four on the training track in 48:22 (8/59) at BEL.
March breezed five in 1.00:20 (2/26) at BEL.
Prospect Park breezed six in 1.13:60 (2/4) at SLR.
Soul Driver breezed five on firm turf in 1.02:40 (2/7) at SA.
Startup Nation breezed five on firm turf in 1.01:55 (8/14) at BEL.
Tennessee breezed four on the training track in 48:37 (2/50) at SAR.
Texas Red worked four in 49:80 (23/30) at SA.
Tiz Shea D breezed four in 49:09 (22/59) at BEL.
Tough Customer breezed four in 49:40 (41/80) at CD.

May 22
Blofeld breezed four on the training track in 48:69 (13/42) at BEL.
Bolo breezed three in 36:40 (2/9) at SA.
Carpe Diem breezed five in 59:01 (1/20) at BEL.
Conquest Curlinate breezed five in 59:80 (4/20) at CD.
Competitive Edge breezed four on the training track in 48:59 (9/42) at BEL.
Eh Cumpari breezed four in 48:76 (4/22) at BEL.
Frosted breezed five in 1.01:45 (12/20) at BEL.
Madefromlucky breezed five in 59:01 (1/20) at BEL.
Materiality breezed five in 1.00:04 (4/20) at BEL.
Shotgun Kowboy breezed three in 37:00 (3/6) at LS.
Stanford breezed five in 1.00:04 (4/20) at BEL.

May 21
Hootenanny breezed five on firm turf in 1.03:20 (4/8) at CD.
Keen Ice breezed six in 1.15:00 (1/1) at CD.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 52:05 (20/23) at BEL.

May 20
Bluff breezed five in 1.01:40 (6/9) at DEL.
Gorgeous Bird breezed five in 1.00:40 (1/14) at CD.
Jess's Dream breezed three in 36:54 (1/10) at BEL.
Lord Nelson breezed four in 47:40 (1/36) at CD.
Mubtaahij breezed four in 48:34 (2/22) at BEL.
Where's the Moon breezed four in 50:80 (15/16) at ALB.
Wolf Man Rocket breezed four in 48:40 (6/36) at CD.

May 19
Cyrus Alexander breezed five in 59:00 (1/11) at SA.
Souper Colossal breezed five in 1.02:00 (2/8) at MTH.
Task Force Glory breezed five in 1.01:00 (4/9) at CDT.
Texas Red breezed three in 38:40 (5/7) at SA.
War Story breezed four in 49:80 (18/30) at CD.

May 18
Data Driven breezed four on the training track in 49:72 (12/31) at BEL.
Great Stuff breezed four in 50:20 (9/13) at KEE.
Mr. Jordan breezed four in :48.80 (5/34) at MTH.
Ocho Ocho Ocho worked five in 1.01:80 (57/72) at SA.
Prospect Park breezed five in 1.14:20 (2/2) at SLR.
The Gomper breezed four in :47.60 (7/39) at SA.
The Truth or Else breezed four in 49:34 (11/17) at BEL.
Wisecracker breezed four in :49.00 (1/3) at GTC.

May 17
Bolo breezed five in 1.02:40 (61/71) at SA.
Bridget's Big Luvy breezed five on a firm inner turf track in 1.04:99 (23/23) at BEL.
Cinco Charlie breezed five in 1.02:11 ( 1/10) at BEL.
Cross the Line breezed six in 1.11:80 (1/27) at SA.
Curlino breezed five on a good track in 1.00:00 (1/24) at CD.
Hero Ten All breezed five on firm turf in 1.03:80 (6/7) at SA.
Itsknockout breezed four on a firm inner turf track in 48:11 (3/6) at BEL.
Mubtaahij breezed five on a firm inner turf track in 1.01:11 ( 1/23) at BEL.
Night Prowler breezed five on a firm inner turf track in 1.03:55 (19/23) at BEL.
Ostrolenka breezed four on the training track in 47:05 (1/50) at BEL.
Pulmarack breezed five on firm turf in 1.03:40 (4/7) at SA.
Soul Driver breezed five on firm turf in 1.03:00 (2/7) at SA.
Startup Nation breezed five on a firm inner turf track in 1.02:82 (14/23) at BEL.
Unblunted breezed four in 48:80 (44/87) at SA.

May 16
Another Lemon Drop breezed five in 1.01:80 (24/43) at CD.
Blofeld breezed five on the training track in 1.01:75 (6/25) at BEL.
Competitive Edge breezed four on the training track in 48:75 (6/45) at BEL.
Eh Cumpari breezed five in 1.01:12 (3/6) at BEL.
Firespike breezed four in 50:40 (8/9) at CDT.
Hillbilly Royalty breezed five in 1.02:00 (28/43) at CD.
March breezed four in a49:04 (6/24) at BEL.
Materiality breezed four in 49:03 (5/24) at BEL.
Stanford breezed four in 49:04 (6/24) at BEL.
Tennessee breezed three in 38:10 (6/19) at SAR.
Unrivaled breezed four in 49:15 (3/14) at PRX.

May 15
Classy Class breezed four in 49:65 (15/31) at BEL.
Frosted breezed four in 47:64 (1/31) at BEL.
Keen Ice breezed five in 1.01:80 (12/20) at CD.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 51:23 (9/11) at BEL.

May 14
Far Right breezed four in 48:40 (7/22) at CD.
Frammento breezed three in 36:80 (1/5) at SAR.
Yockey's Warrior breezed four in 51:40 (21/22) at CD.

May 13
Cyrus Alexander worked five in 1.00:40 (10/17) at SA.
Gorgeous Bird breezed five in 59:80 (1/14) at CD.
Overcontrol breezed three in 37:00 (1/7) at CRU.

May 12
Hootenanny breezed five on good turf in 1.05:60 (7/7) at CD.
Mr. Jordan breezed four in 47:60 (1/25) at MTH.
Souper Colossal breezed four in 49:00 (5/25) at MTH.
War Story breezed four in 51:80 (28/30) at CD.

May 11
Bluff breezed five in 59:80 (4/20) at DEL.
Bold Conquest breezed four in 49:20 (13/35) at CD.
Jess's Dream breezed four in 48:77 (2/29) at BEL.
Task Force Glory breezed five in 59:60 (1/6) at CDT.

 

MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.

After you subscribe, you can click here to sign in.


A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

 

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

 

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.

A Little About Us and Our Products


The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.

While the web site has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.

Our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page covers our Four Lists that are constantly updated (130 horses listed at outset: Leading Names, Contenders, Wait and See, Watching), plus links to the specific lists horses entered in stakes races, Derby prep race selections, miscellaneous pre-race commentary, updates, prep race probables/possibles and the ever-important post-race quotes -- all conveniently linked from one page.

 

The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile, LLC. © 2003-2015

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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