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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®



SUBSCRIBER NOTICES: Selections by Downey and Johnson will be posted no later than Noon on Friday.
Segment 11 Miscellaneous NOTES and Observations posted Wednesday.  Profile Busters Profile posted Monday.  Segment 10 NOTES about workouts posted Monday.  Segment 9 NOTES about 12's and 38's posted Monday.  Segment 8 NOTES about Friday's and Saturday's workouts in Kentucky posted Sunday.  The Downey Profile Rankings were updated on Saturday with Side-by-Side Charts.  Segment 7 NOTES: Destin's Tampa Bay Derby.  Segment 6 NOTES: Lani, Mohaymen.  Segment 5 NOTE: More Than One Reason to Focus on Mor Spirit's Workout.  Segment 4 NOTES: Good Questions; Gun Runner and Creator; Mor Spirit.  And more.

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To read about The Downey Profile, click here. The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013.


Kentucky Derby Post Positions, Morning Line
Kentucky Derby Horse Bios
Live Derby Training 8:30 a.m. ET     Derby Workout Videos
Derby PPs   Derby Draw Sheet   Oaks PPs   Oaks Draw Sheet


Follow Us on Twitter

Derby by the Speed Numbers

Oaks Day Card Changes

Daily Derby Update - Thursday

Oaks Fillies: Dosage, DOB

Battle-Tested Teams Clash in Derby 142

Post Positions: Is Everybody Happy?








Kentucky Derby Field Photos

Kentucky Derby Undercard Overnight

Kentucky Oaks PPs

Oaks Keeneland Sales Grads





Oaks: Rematch from Ashland Stakes

Printable Kentucky Oaks Draw Sheet w/ ML

Three Breezes Cap Major Work

Majesto Rider Named

Mostly Routine Day Six Days Out

Another Bullet for Danzing Candy Kentucky Derby Nerves

Derby Works Nearing Completion

MJC to Honor Team Pharaoh

Keeneland Crowd Approves Nyquist Work

Big Day of Works at Churchill

Early Friday  Report from Churchill Downs

Oaks/Derby Prohibited, Permitted Items

Take Not Impressed

Giving Baclk to Those Who Ride

Nyquist to Work Before KEE Races

'Spirited' Breeze - Updated Eclipse Buys Share of Destin

CJ: Trojan Nation Confirmed Exaggerator to WinStar for Breeding
No Word on Retirement Date

Gun Runner, Creator Back to Back

Brown Sends Out Tandem

Two Go Out West

Three Work at Churchill for Derby

Nyquist Breezes in Company

Vancouver Sun: Mario Rides Again

Outwork in First Post-Wood Breeze

Derby Riders -- For Now....
Derby Silks -- For Now....

Nyquist's Rainy Morning at Keeneland

Mo Tom Rider Issue Settled

Derby Weekday Racing Highlights

Majesto in Long GPW Work

O'Neill Playing It by Ear....

Wynn Derby Future Odds - Tuesday

Ortiz on My Man Sam
Espinoza, Rosario Get Derby Mounts

Derby Workouts w/ Video
Mohaymen Bullet; Mo Tom; Lani

Jogs Again....

Cowgill on McLaughin MS - 'Still Living My Dream'

Cupid's Entrapped Epiglottis....
Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

Bullet for Gun Runner

Hot Springs to Louisville....

Nyquist Jogs

Fellowship Now Outside Looking In

C-J: Battaglia on Derby Morning Line

Creator Blitzes Arkansas Derby

Collected by Four in Lexington

Saturday Selections
Downey on the Arkansas Derby
Commish on the Lexington

Nyquist Breezes at Keeneland
Video of Workout

Fellowship: 'Seeing How It Goes'

Maker Suspended, Will Appeal

Activity Rising Under Twin Spires

Tom's Ready Breezes

Grandest Trophy in Sports Arrives

Another Good Day for the Champ

Mo Tom in Strong Breeze

C-J on the Fellowship Transfer to Casse

'Definitely changed physically....'

Why Exaggerator Ran So Big

Wood Top Three Doing Well

Shagaf to Continue to Derby

Romans Wastes No Time

Nyquist Ready to Do More

Brody's Cause Regains Form
Video: His Auction Sale at Keeneland

Exaggerator Rolls at Santa Anita

Wood Winner Outworks Longshot

Downey - Winning Ponies Radio 30-Min. Mark

Albany Times-Union: McLaughlin Regrouping

Praise for 'Sugar Sand' at FG, CD

Trainer Laments Wide-Trip, Wet-Track Loss
And He's Not Named McLaughlin

Good News-Bad News for Mohaymen

FL Derby: Transcript Winning Connections

Florida Derby: Losing Connections Quotes

And the Spiral Winner Is...Oscar Nominated

Kentucky Derby Future Wager


Continue to All Workouts

Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted

Feb. 21, 1:01.16 B 6/21 at GP
Feb. 28, 1:00.73 B 3/26 at GP
March 6, 48.40 B 6/73 at TBD
March 12, Raced Tampa Bay Derby
March 27, 47.90 B 17/76 at GP
April 2, 59:82 B 2/19 at GP
April 9, Raced Blue Grass
April 23, 1.01:80 B 34/64 at CD

Feb. 22, 51.80 B 11/17 at OP
March 7, 51.40 B 40/51 at OP
March 14, 49.20 B 11/36 at OP
March 19, Raced Rebel
March 29, 51.00 B 29/44 at OP
April 4, 1.00:60 B 3/13 at OP
April 11, 50:40 B 5/11 at OP sloppy
April 16, Raced Arkansas Derby
April 25, 1:02.40 B 25/34 at CD
May 2, 50:60 B 47/56 at CD

Feb. 20, 1:00.20 H 13/93 at SA
Feb. 27, 1:13.00 H 4/31 at SA
March 5, 1:01.00 H 49/134 at SA
March 12, Raced San Felipe
March 26, 5F     58.60 H 1/54 at SA
April 2, 1:00.60 H 13/70 at SA
April 9, Raced Santa Anita Derby
April 23, 1.12:00 H 1/11 at SLR
April 30, 59.80 B 1/10 at SLR

Feb. 12, Raced Sam F. Davis
Feb. 27, 48.43 B 4/31 at PBD
March 5, 48.99 B 7/25 at PBD
March 12, Raced Tampa Bay Derby
April 2, Destin 48.98 B 6/17 at PMM
April 8, Destin 1.01:04 B 3/12 at PBD
April 16, Destin 1.00:94 B 1/2 at PBD
April 23, 1:00.23 B 1/8 at PBD
April 29, 1.01:40 B 29/53 at CD

Feb. 27, 1:00.40 H 15/102 at SA
March 5, 1:00.40 H 24/134 at SA
March 12, Raced San Felipe
March 26, 1:00.40 H 11/54 at SA
April 2, 1.02:80 H 66/70 at SA
April 9, Raced Santa Anita Derby
April 23, 1.00:00 H 5/28 at SA

Feb. 20, Raced Risen Star
Feb. 29, 1:02.80 B 15/15 at FG
March 7, 1:01.20 B 5/29 at FG
March 14, 1:00.60 B 1/34 at FG
March 21, 50.80 B 41/56 at FG
March 26, Raced Louisiana Derby
April 4, 50.60 B 16/19 at CD
April 11, 1.01:00 B 5/12 at CD
April 18, 1.00:00 B 1/16 at CD
April 25, 1:12.20 B 1/2 at CD
May 2, 50:40 B 43/56 at CD

April 20, 1.06:00 B 21/21 at CD
April 27, 37:40 B 5/8 at CD
May 3, Lani 1.01:00 B 3/18 at CD

Feb. 20, 1:05.80 B 21/23 at GPW
Feb. 27, Raced MSW
March 12, 1:02.40 B 5/18 at GPW
March 18, 1:05.00 B 10/11 at GPW
March 25, 1:01.60 B 2/5 at GPW
April 2, Raced Florida Derby
April 14, 1.02:40 B 2/3 at GPW
April 21, 1.44:40 (mile) B 1/1 at GPW
April 29, 1.01:40 B 29/53 at CD

Feb. 20, Raced Risen Star
March 5, 47.80 B 3/63 at FG
March 13, 48.60 B 14/99 at FG
March 26, Raced Louisiana Derby
April 13, 48:40 B 6/31 at CD
April 20, 47:00 B 2/27 at CD
April 29, 48:60 B 28/67 at CD

Feb. 19, 49.60 B 24/43 at PMM
Feb. 27, Raced Fountain of Youth
March 11, 49.40 B 2/37 at PMM
March 18, 1:01.00 B 1/12 at PMM
March 24, 48.95 B 9/48 at PMM
April 2, Raced Florida Derby
April 20, Mohaymen 46:80 B 1/27 at CD
April 29, 47:40 B 5/67 at CD

Feb. 17, 48.60 H 21/49 at SA
Feb. 28, 59.80 H 10/90 at SA
March 5, 1:12.20 H 4/43 at SA
March 12, Raced San Felipe
March 24, 47.80 B 2/29 at SA
March 30, 59.00 H 1/20 at SA
April 4,  47:00 B 2/58 at SA
April 9, Raced Santa Anita Derby
April 21, 1.01:60 B 39/55 at SA
April 26, 59:80 B 2/18 at CD
May 2, 59:80 B 2/27 at CD

Feb. 20, 48.34 B 11/101 at BEL training
Feb. 28. 48.75 B 23/108 at BEL training
March 6, Raced Allw
March 19,  48.74 B 18/107 at BEL training
March 26, 1:00.10 B 1/52 at BEL training
April 2, 50.07 B 55/88 at BEL training
April 9, Raced Blue Grass
April 24, 50.60 B 40/56 at CD
April 29, 49:60 B 47/67 at CD

Feb. 15, Raced San Vicente
March 3, 48.80 H 14/29 at SA
March 10, 1:01.40 H 55/84 at SA
March 18, 1:01.40 H 31/71 at SA
March 25, 1:03.00 B 56/72 at SA
April 2, Raced Florida Derby
April 15, 1.02:60 B 22/28 at KEE
April 23, 1:01.80 B 19/34 at KEE
April 29, 1:41 B 1/3 at KEE

Feb. 22, 49.20 B 9/69 at FG
Feb. 27, Raced Black Gold
March 14, 49.40 B 14/59 at FG
March 21, 1:01.80 B 14/25 at FG
March 28, 49.40 B 1/3 at CDT
April 2, Raced Spiral
April 16, 49.60 B 13/15 at CDT
April 23, 1.00:20 B 3/10 at CDT good
April 29, 1:00.80 21/53 at CD

Feb. 27, 59.90 B 1/13 at PBD
March 5, 1:00.23 B 4/14 at PBD
March 12, Raced Tampa Bay Derby
March 26, 48.25 B 3/24 at PBD
April 2, 1:00.48 B 3/11 at PBD
April 9, Raced Wood Memorial
April 22, 48:87 B 12/45 at BEL training
April 29, 1.01:00 B 22/53 at CD

Feb. 20, 48.75 B 8/66 at PMM
Feb. 27, 48.95 B 8/61 at PMM
March 5, Raced Gotham
March 19, 48.74 B 18/107 BEL training
March 26, 1:00.10 B 1/52 BEL training
April 2, 48:45 B 6/88 BEL training
April 9, Raced Wood Memorial
April 24, 48.40 B 10/56 at CD
April 29, 47:80 B 10/67 at CD

Feb. 27, 51.20 B 75/84 at OP
March 5, 1:00.60 B 9/46 at OP
March 14, 1:02.00 B 7/22 at OP
March 19, Raced Rebel
April 1, 48:80 B 9/41 at OP
April 9,  48:40 B 9/44 at OP
April 16, Raced Arkansas Derby
April 29, 59:60 B 8/53 at CD

Feb. 20, Raced Risen Star
March 3, 48.60 B 5/54 at FG
March 10, 1:13.40 B 1/2 at FG
March 20,  1:02.00 B 20/47 at FG
March 26, Raced Louisana Derby
April 7,  47:60 B 1/9 at CD
April 14, 1.01:60 B 4/6 at CD
April 23, 1.01:00 B 22/64 at CD
April 29, 59:40 B 3/53 at CD

Feb. 27, 1:01.20 H 43/102 at SA
March 6, Raced MSW
March 18, 49.20 H 21/42 at SA
March 28, 1:00.40 H 6/39 at SA
April 3, 59.80 H 1/59 at SA
April 9, Raced Wood Memorial
April 21, 47:60 H 5/18 at SA
April 28, 1.12:60 H 1/5 at SA

Feb. 27, 48.20 B 1/84 at OP
March 6, 1:00.00 B 1/46 at OP
March 13, 51.00 B 32/67 at OP
March 19, Raced Rebel Stakes
April 2, 48:60 B 7/64 at OP
April 9, 48:80 B 13/44 at OP
April 16, Raced Arkansas Derby
April 29, 1.00:00 B 13/53 at CD

Continue to All Workouts








Posted April 30 2016 - Thanks to everyone for supporting The Downey Profile  We started late this year due to circumstances in my family (see below), so we did free prep race selections and the Lists are back for free this year. PLEASE ALSO NOTE that only Downey Profile subscribers will have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, my in-depth analyses of the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep races, NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!

--Dick Downey


Posted Jan. 24, 2016  -  Over the years, one of my goals has been to provide readers a website, not a blog, packed with more information about the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown than any other source. With that in mind, please forgive me the bloggish nature of this message.

For personal reasons, The Downey Profile will delay its opening or take a sabbatical this year. It's not about me; I'm doing fine. Specifically, my health and my home life are in good shape.

I have enjoyed immensely doing The Downey Profile every year since launching it, and I hope to continue it in some form in the future. I'm not giving up the website domain name, the Service Mark or the website itself, and I am keeping up with the Kentucky Derby Trail too.

Prior to this post on Jan. 24, I have entered one Derby contest so far -- the Commish runs it -- and my original 10 horses were Airoforce, Brody’s Cause, Drefong, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Let’s Meet in Rio, Nyquist, Rally Cry, Toew’s on Ice and Zulu. Incidentally, the contest began before Toew's on Ice ran poorly in the Smarty Jones, and I plan to replace him. Also, I'm already worried about Airoforce because he hasn't put in a breeze since Jan. 11, but trainer Casse recently said he's being pointed to Tampa Bay Downs. I also plan to participate in the annual high-level contest originating from Churchill Downs.

My selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)

The Commish picked:
1. American Pharoah (first)
2. Dortmund (third)
3. Firing Line (second)
4. Frosted (fourth)
5. Carpe Diem (tenth)

The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. Traditionally, the site goes live for that project starting late January.

We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.

Thanks for everything, and I hope to see you again as soon as possible.

--By Dick Downey



THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to

After you subscribe, you can click here to sign in.

A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it.

Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.

A Little About Us and Our Products

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.

While the web site has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.

Our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page was offered in 2015 and did well. However, that information is offered free in 2016 because we launched the website later than usual. It covered our Lists that are constantly updated, Derby prep race selections, miscellaneous pre-race commentary, updates, prep race probables/possibles and the ever-important post-race quotes -- all conveniently linked from one page.


The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile, LLC. © 2003-2016

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.