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Horse Racing, Kentucky Downs Horses at The Downey Profile®

Dick's Picks: Parity the Story in Tampa

3/6/2014

By Dick Downey
@DowneyProfile


When you compare their most-recent-race performances and speed figures, the field in the Tampa Bay Derby could not be more competitive on paper.

Nine of the 10 entries were awarded a Brisnet speed figure between 90 and 93 in their most recent race. Tuscan Getaway is the lone exception with an 83.

Seven of the 10 entries either won or finished within a length of the winner last time out. The exceptions are Conquest Titan, beaten 5 1/2 lengths by Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull; East Hall, beaten 6 1/2 lengths by Wildcat Red in the Fountain of Youth; and Hy Kodiak Warrior, beaten 2 1/4 lengths by Commissioner in a Jan. 3 allowance race at Gulfstream Park.

The race shape has little early speed, at least on paper, which could compromise the closers.

In the Sam F. Davis Stakes, I picked Cousin Stephen to win, and he finished third, beaten less than a length. On Saturday, Javier Castellano gets back on Cousin Stephen, so I'll stay with this horse and I hope that Castellano works out a good trip for him. If I got off him and he won, well, you know how that song goes.

Conquest Titan has had some issues since the Holy Bull, and a question is whether he'll be in top form, or close to it. A second-place finish would add 20 Kentucky Derby points to his portfolio, giving him a total of 24.

Hy Kodiak Warrior has something in common with Conquest Titan, and it is that he was defeated by high-class competition in his last race. I like his most recent workout at Calder, and he's shown Brisnet speed figures competitive with all of these in his last three starts. He'll get Lasix for the first time. Wonder how long he'll be at the windows on Saturday?

Surfing U S A has been competitive in all three of his races and perhaps has the best early speed in the field -- and he will probably have to go from post 2. If Surfing U S A can keep running when he comes out of the second turn, he looks likely to hit the board.

If I don't use East Hall, fourth in the Fountain of Youth after passing some tired horses late, it is at my own peril. He sure won't be anywhere close to 72-1 this time.

Vinceremos won the Davis, and if he's improved, he could win the Tampa Bay Derby too. He'll need a faster finish, though. Matador, a close fourth in the Davis, needs the same thing. It should be noted that Harpoon, second by a nose in the Davis, finished fifth in the Gotham Stakes last weekend.

DICK'S PICKS

1. COUSIN STEPHEN
2. CONQUEST TITAN
3. HY KODIAK WARRIOR
4. SURFING U S A

Our Profiles of Selected Entries
Coltimus Prime, Conquest Titan, Cousin Stephen, East Hall Hy Kodiak Warrior Matador, Ring Weekend, Surfing U S A, Vinceremos
 

Saturday, R11
Grade II Tampa Bay Derby
Tampa Bay Downs
$350,000
1 1/16 Mile
Dirt
Post Time: 5:25 ET

Post   Horse  ML  Jockey Sx  Wt Trainer
1 Ring Weekend (KY) 15-1 D. Centeno C 116 G. Motion
2 Surfing U S A (KY) 3-1 J. Lezcano C 116 T. Pletcher
3 Matador (ON) 8-1 J. Leparoux C 116 M. Casse
4 Coltimus Prime (ON) 15-1 G. Boulanger C 116 J. Nixon
5 Conquest Titan (KY) 7-2 S. Bridgmohan C 116 M. Casse
6 Vinceremos (KY) 4-1 E. Prado C 120 T. Pletcher
7 East Hall (FL) 10-1 J. Leyva G 116 W. Kaplan
8 Cousin Stephen (KY) 9-2 J. Castellano C 116 C. Brown
9 Hy Kodiak Warrior (KY) 10-1 G. Saez C 116 M Navarro
10 Tuscan Getaway (KY) 20-1 J. Rocco Jr. G 116 R. Griffith

All will run with Lasix. Hy Kodiak Warrior is first Lasix.

Owners: 1 - St. Elias Stable and West Point Thoroughbreds ; 2 - George Bolton and Stonestreet Stables, LLC ; 3 - John C. Oxley ; 4 - Cabernet Racing Stables ; 5 - Conquest Stables, LLC ; 6 - WinStar Farm, LLC and Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC ; 7 - Jack H. Hendricks and Roger Justice ; 8 - Klaravich Stables, Inc. and W.H. Lawrence ; 9 - Mar Racing Stable ; 10 - Debmar Stables

Breeders: 1 - Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd.; 2 - Lochlow Farm; 3 - Windhaven Farms Limited; 4 - J. Horner; 5 - Michael Edward Connelly; 6 - Machmer Hall; 7 - Mary K. Haire; 8 - Brereton C. Jones; 9 - Meg Buckley & Mike Buckley; 10 - John Taylor

 

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