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Kentucky Derby and Horse Racing at The Downey Profile®

Derby Trail: Where They're Going Next


By Dick Downey
The Downey Profile

With only four weekends left before the Kentucky Derby, there are still dozens of horses in competition for a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. Here's a rundown of next-start plans for 70 individual horses, most of them on our lists at The Downey Profile.

ALTERNATION (KY)--The Arkansas Derby on April 16 looks more probable all the time.

ANIMAL KINGDOM (KY)--The Kentucky Derby on May 7 if dirt workouts at Churchill Downs please his connections. In the meantime, he'll train at Keeneland.

ANTHONY'S CROSS (PA)--The Santa Anita Derby this Saturday.

ARCHARCHARCH (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

ASTROLOGY (KY)--He probably has enough earnings for the Kentucky Derby; but his Sunland Derby second was his only start this year. Churchill Downs lists his next start as "to be determined," and he's listed as possible for the Arkansas Derby.

BANDBOX (NY)--The Preakness still hasn't been ruled out to our knowledge, so the Jerome would be a logical next step.

BENCH POINTS (CA)--The Santa Anita Derby.

BIND (KY)--Not nominated to the Triple Crown.

BRETHREN (KY)--The Arkansas Derby; he might be equipped with cut-back blinkers.

CAL NATION (KY)--As of March 26, the Jerome was being examined as a possible springboard to the Preakness, but Cal Nation was not listed as probable or possible in any upcoming stakes races in a list released by Churchill Downs yesterday.

CALEB'S POSSE (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

CELESTIC NIGHT (KY)--The Santa Anita Derby.

COMMA TO THE TOP (FL)--The Santa Anita Derby; the Kentucky Derby is unlikely, but connections have not said 100% no way. Plans are to give him a break; but the Preakness is also said to be possible.

CRIMSON CHINA (KY)--The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 16.

DANCE CITY (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

DATA LINK (KY)--The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, but there are no plans to run in Kentucky Derby.

DECISIVE MOMENT (FL)--The Kentucky Derby.

DIALED IN (KY)--The Kentucky Derby. Plans are to remain in Florida for a while longer.

DUCA (KY)--The Grade I Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial.

ELITE ALEX (ON)--He's now said to be likely for the Arkansas Derby.

FLASHPOINT (FL)--To be determined.

INDIAN WINTER (KY)--The Santa Anita Derby.

ISN'T HE PERFECT (KY)--The Wood Memorial.

J P'S GUSTO (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

J W BLUE (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

JAKESAM (KY)--Possibly the Toyota Blue Grass.

JAYCITO (KY)--The Santa Anita Derby. Blinkers could be added again.

JOE VANN (KY)--The TVG Illinois Derby.

JOE'S BLAZING AARON (KY)--The Toyota Blue Grass.

KING CONGIE (KY)--Now listed as probable for the Toyota Blue Grass. The Coolmore Lexington was previously listed as a backup plan.

LAGOON OF DIAMONDS (KY)--The TVG Illinois Derby.

MASTER OF HOUNDS (KY)--Possibly the Kentucky Derby. Connections are said to be thinking it over seriously.

MR. COMMONS (KY)--The Santa Anita Derby.

MUCHO MACHO MAN (FL)--The Kentucky Derby.

NEHRO (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

NORMAN ASBJORNSON (MD)--The Wood Memorial, and a run in the Preakness is the target.

OFLEE WILD BOYS (CA)--The Santa Anita Derby.

PANTS ON FIRE (KY)--The Kentucky Derby.

POSITIVE RESPONSE (FL)--He's off the Derby Trail and is pointing to the May 14 Alcatraz Stakes on turf at Golden Gate Fields.

POWHATAN COUNTY (KY)--The Toyota Blue Grass.

PRIME CUT (KY)--No word yet; he's not listed as a probable or possible in any upcoming stake by Churchill Downs; but this could change.

PREMIER PEGASUS (KY)--The Santa Anita Derby.

QUAIL HILL (KY)--Said to be 50-50 for the Santa Anita Derby.

QUEEN'SPLATEKITTEN (ON)--The Toyota Blue Grass.

RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE (KY)--Possibly the Wood Memorial.

RIVETING REASON (KY)--Still no workouts since March 5.

RULER ON ICE (KY)--The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial.

SANTIVA (KY)--The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

SARATOGA RED (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

SHACKLEFORD (KY)--The Kentucky Derby if he can get in with $212,000; otherwise, the Preakness is a target. He'll be in Louisville soon if he isn't already there.

SILVER MEDALLION (KY)--The Santa Anita Derby.

SMARTER THAN EVER (KY)--The TVG Illinois Derby.

SOLDAT (KY)--Connections will talk over whether he's still likely for the Kentucky Derby. He could be shipped to Louisville soon although original plans had him staying at Palm Meadows through April.

SOUR (KY)--Likely for the TVG Illinois Derby.


STAY THIRSTY (KY)--After poor run in Florida Derby, he's going to the Kentucky Derby if he can get in. Currently number 15 on the earnings list.

SWAY AWAY (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

SWIFT WARRIOR (KY)--The Toyota Blue Grass.

THE FACTOR (KY)--The Arkansas Derby is definite.

TO HONOR AND SERVE (KY)--Retreating third in the Florida Derby is now listed "to be determined" by Churchill Downs. Bill Mott said yesterday he's inclined to go the the Derby but wants some time to think about it.

TOBY'S CORNER (KY)--Looks most likely for the Wood Memorial, but the Illinois Derby is also possible.

TRAVELIN MAN (KY)--The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial on April 30.

TRUMAN'S COMMANDER (KY)--The Arkansas Derby.

TWINSPIRED (KY)--Possibly the Coolmore Lexington on April 23.

UNCLE BRENT (KY)--The last we heard, Uncle Brent was considered likely for the one-mile Northern Spur on Arkansas Derby day.

UNCLE MO (KY)--The Wood Memorial.

TWICE THE APPEAL (KY)--The Kentucky Derby.

WATCH ME GO (FL)--The TVG Illinois Derby..

WILKINSON (KY)--Change of course makes the Toyota Blue Grass probable.

WILLCOX INN (KY)--The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.


Also possible for the Wood Memorial: Arthur’s Tale, Full of Scoundrels, Preachintothedevil, Son of Posse, Starship Caesar.

Also possible for the Illiinois Derby: Economic Summit (also considering an allowance and might need more time between starts), The Fed Eased.

Likely for the Bay Shore this Saturday: Buffum, Dr Disco, J J’s Lucky Train, Justin Phillip, Royal Currier, Smoke It Right and Vengeful Wildcat. Possible: Opening Move, Rift, Rocking Out, Sensational Slam and The Fed Eased.

© 2003-2020 Dick Downey dba The Downey Profile

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2018.