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Kentucky Derby and Horse Racing at The Downey Profile®

Hansen's Dosage Index: It's Really 3.50, Not 5.40

1/28/2012

By Dick Downey

A miscalculation of Hansen's dosage index resulted in an incorrect figure being reported by usually reliable sources.

Last Fall, Hansen's dosage index was reported by original sources to be 5.40. That figure was carried by The Downey Profile and elsewhere.

While the mile and a sixteenth distance of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was thought to be clearly within Hansen's pedigree's reach -- and of course, that proved to be true -- many Kentucky Derby watchers diminished his chances of getting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May because his dosage index well exceeds the traditional ceiling of 4.00.

After receiving an inquiry about Hansen's dosage index today, The Downey Profile checked its original source and found that the index had been changed to 3.50. We contacted dosage guru Dr. Steve Roman, whose www.chef-de-race.com contains extensive dosage information.

Roman said today that the original calculation was indeed not correct. Instead of having a dosage profile of 6-5-5-0-0, which yields a 5.40 index, Hansen has a profile of 6-5-6-1-0, yielding the lower number of 3.50.

The first two numbers of a dosage profile indicate a genetic dispositon toward speed. The middle number, Classic, has an obvious inference. The fourth number, Solid, is a stamina figure, as is the fifth number. In Hansen's case, the third and fourth numbers of his dosage profile were affected.

"Apparently they had excluded Nijinsky II (C/S) from their original calculation, but have since corrected it," Roman wrote today.  "The real DP is 6-5-6-1-0.  I also have now made the update at my site.

"C/S refers to Nijinsky II being a split Classic/Solid chef-de-race. Appearing in Hansen's fourth generation, Nijinsky II contributes one point to the Classic category and one point to the Solid category of Hansen's Dosage Profile," Roman explained.  "If you add the one Classic point and one Solid point to the original Dosage Profile of 6-5-5-0-0, you get the revised 6-5-6-1-0.  

"I am assuming that's what happened at (the original source). The 6-5-5-0-0 seems to ignore the C/S influence of Nijinsky II."

Like Roman, the Downey Profile has changed Hansen's dosage numbers on his coverage, currently shown on its Looking Good page.

While the revised index may encourage fans to increase Hansen's chance of winning the Kentucky Derby, especially in light of the fact that he has a win over the track at Churchill Downs, Roman wrote that he has reservations.

"Even at DP 6-5-6-1-0, DI 3.50 and CD (center of distribution) 0.89, the figures, even though within historical classic guidelines, are heavily oriented toward speed. They do, however, seem to accurately capture Hansen's actual aptitudinal type of great speed carried beyond pure sprint distances.  

"On the other hand, the figures may not be ideal for the classics, especially if another 3-year-old of equal ability has a pedigree more suited to the Derby distance. You still have to balance pedigree with class, form, trip and all the other factors that contribute to the outcome of a race," Roman concluded.

The revision means that Hansen will be deemed a Dual Qualifier when results of the Experimental Free Handicap (EFH) are released. The EFH assigns weights to horses based on the quality of their 2-year-old performances in stakes races. Being a top-weighted horse with a dosage index of 4.00 or less yields a Dual Qualifer rating for the Kentucky Derby, a handicapping tool Roman devised years ago with great success.

The tool has fallen out of favor in recent years; however, Super Saver (2010) and Street Sense (2007) are recent Kentucky Derby winners that were Dual Qualifiers.

NOTE TO DOWNEY PROFILE SUBSCRIBERS: Hansen's ranking in The Downey Profile was revised today.

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