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Kentucky Derby and Horse Racing at The Downey Profile®

Dick's Picks, Saturday, Sept. 8, 2012

9/9/2012

Race 1: 2YO Maiden Claiming $15,000 - $10,000, One Mile

I think the winner could be one of three second-time starters, and I think the program selections are good.

1. Donati #9 4-1 ML-- Bred for turf and switches to it from dirt in this, his second start. Should like the extra ground.

2. De Enforcer #8, 5-2 ML -- Trained by Eion Harty, soundly beaten in his debut, but it was a $50K claimer at Saratoga, and he was bumped hard at the start. An improvment from that race should win.

3. Left First #5, 3-1 ML -- Has more experience than most of these and has been up against tougher -- and gets Corey Lanerie from trainer Mike Maker. Downside is his failure to improve in his second and third starts.

4. Irish Arch #7, 5-1 ML-- Should like more distance and will probably get away from the gate better in his second start than he did in his first.

Outside chance: Straight Town #11, 20-1 ML -- Bumped both times he's run.


Race 2: 3YO/up F & M Claiming $10,000, 6 1/2 Furlongs

1. Harbor Spirit #6, 5-2 ML -- Has been running against much tougher and now gets to compete for $22K at a lower level.

2. Desi Girl #3, 20-1 ML -- Stepping up but likes to win and is a price. First time on grass.

3. How About Alexis, #1, 3-1 ML -- Should be in the mix early from post 1 but has to run further than ever before.

4. Excitement (IRE), #4, 8-1 ML -- Liking that it's second time off the layoff, and her turf numbers aren't too bad.

Did not use: Buffalo River Gal #9, ML 7-2 because turf numbers not as good as dirt numbers.


Race 3: 3YO/up F & M, Maiden Special Weight $60,000, Six Furlongs

1. Hillary D #7, 2-1 ML -- Won by 11 1/4 last time out but was DQ'd; switch to turf should not be a problem.

2. Dark Nebula #2, 9-5 ML -- Been rained out off turf in last two starts; returns to preferred surface.

3. Done in Love #4, 6-1 ML -- Gets Calvin, should break from gate with more interest in this, her second start. Competed for $85K in first start.

4. Class Song #1, 12-1 ML -- Daughter of Smart Strike on turf for first time after one bad trip, one placing.

Horse that scares me: Glad It's May #8, 5-1 ML coming off May layoff after sole start.


Race 4: 3YO Claiming $20,000 non-winner of two lifetime, One Mile 70 Yards

1. Sorgho #2 12-1 ML -- Beaten by seven to a time of 1:34.45 last time out and comes back at higher level after being dropped.

2. Innis Oirr, #10, 3-1 ML -- Should come from the clouds; could get up; has a win on turf unlike the program favorite.

3. Our Noble Heart #1, 5-2 ML -- Dropping in class; three places and a show on turf; decent numbers; Patrick Byrne makes rare appearance at KD.

4. Le Chevalier #5, 8-1 ML -- Corey Lanerie teams with Tom Proctor; two of three best figs for "The Knight" have been on grass; won easily last time; bumped up from $7,500 level. Look for him up front.

Risky to leave out: Alandtom, #12, 6-1 ML. But outside post is not attractive for this Mountaineer shipper.


Race 5: 3YO/up F & M, N1X Allowance $62,000, Six Furlongs

1. Myriad #5, 6-1 ML -- Note pattern of good races when cutting back in distance every other start. Does that again today. With some luck in the past, would not meet the N1X condition now. Really like her chances.

2. On the Same Page #1, 15-1 ML -- Looks better than 15-1 to me; pace; Ramsey and Ward horses have done well at KD before; has been in several key races. Not too worried about lack of turf experience. Watch the board.

3. Cat Lore #12, 7-2 ML -- Looks good; usually finishes with interest but outside post could hinder him; looking for Lebron to take overland route.

4. A Time to Love #10, 3-1 ML -- By Ramsey sire Kitten's Joy; needs a good ride, should get that from Bridgmohan; on the board four of five times on turf.


Race 6: 3YO/up; Turf Dash $75,000, Six Furlongs

1. Sal the Barber #5, 8-1 ML -- Have a feeling that, with the cutback in distance, he's going to be sent. Graded stakes experience. Sharp work coming in. Must break well.

2. Noble's Promise #8, 5-2 ML -- One for two on turf, looks to turn tables on the third and fourth selections.

3. Good Lord #1, 3-1 ML -- Only reason he's not picked on top is lack of turf experience against many that have it. Will be the heavy favorite among local area fans.

4. Icon Ike #10, 20-1 ML -- Five of six on the turf; likes to win; and has won at this level. Sent in by J. Larry Jones. Got to love that price.


Race 7: 3YO/up, Franklin-Simpson Mile $75,000, One Mile

1. Seruni #4 9-5 ML -- Looks like the class of the field.


2. Lil Bit O'Fun #5, 8-1 ML Should have decent pace in front to set up his late run.

3. Global Power #10, 9-2 ML -- Should have plenty of company on the front end, but at least he's in position for Goncalves to look to his left and size up the situation.

4. Bernie the Maestro #3, 15-1 ML -- Everybody wants him -- has been claimed five times since March.


Race 8: 3YO/up, Ladies Turf $75,000, One Mile

1. Ruthville #8, 5-1 ML -- She looks ready to roll with a good string of works and recent form.

2. Quick Praise #5, 12-1 ML -- Greg Foley and Corey Lanerie team up. This filly is always in the mix.

3. Ridgester #7, 7-2 ML -- I don't see how you can leave her out -- figs I am seeing show best two efforts were on turf.

4. Miz Ida #11, 6-1 ML -- She either wins or doesn't show much. She has four victories, no places and no shows from seven starts, six of them on turf.

Left out at my risk: Affair Dabbler #9, 4-1 ML.


Race 9: 2YO Fillies, Maiden Special Weight, $60,000, Six Furlongs

1. I Think So #5, 8-1 ML -- I think she will show improvement second time out for J. Larry.

2. Tipthetrolleygirl #6 6-1 ML -- Ronnie Werner steps her up from maiden claiming $30K.

3. Fanfare #1 6-1 ML -- Starts from post 6, gets Shaun Bridgmohan. Watch the board on this first-timer.

4. Sunset Time #11, 2-1 ML -- Kent Desormeaux is back in Franklin after many years away. Filly has threatend to break her maiden several times, but I'm trying to beat her. Wide post could hurt her chances.

 

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