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Kentucky Derby and Horse Racing at The Downey Profile®

Dick's Picks for Thursday, Sept. 10, 2015

9/9/2015

By Dick Downey

Updated Sept. 10, 2015 @ 12:33 CDT

Dick's Picks focus mainly on exacta boxes. Four-horse exacta boxes are recommended except where indicated. Kentucky Downs has the lowest takeout on exacta wagers in the nation.

Scratched horses = strike through. Any additional selections after scratches are announced will be shown in red.

Sept. 9 NOTE: For this card, alternate picks are made for a track rated firm and for a track rated less than firm.  In order to post selections a day ahead of the races, I had to go through this card without knowing if or how much precipitation the track will get early this evening and overnight, which is when the hourly forecast is calling for rain. Good luck to us all.

Sept. 9 NOTE: I attempted to spot some standouts on this card, so some of the exacta wagers are keyed or wheeled rather than boxed.



Race 1. Claiming $17,500, Fillies & Mares 3YO & up, $33,000, 1 Mile

FIRM TURF: I am going 1-2 with 1-2-3-5-7-8
LESS THAN FIRM TURF: I am going with 1-2 boxed.


FIRM TURF

1. DEPART DOVER (#1) is fairly consistent, drops in class and has run well on firm and yielding turf, and

2. GREAT CROSS (#2) gets Florent Geroux, who won five races on opening day. Though she's winless this year on firm turf, she's been racing at a higher level than this. Note soft turf win last November.

WITH

DEPART DOVER (#1), GREAT CROSS (#2) and

SPOONFULOFSUGAR (#3) was dropped in class last time, ran OK, runs back at a higher level today, and

FABULOUS MISS BEA (#5) set the pace on a firm KD course last year and came up fourth, beaten less than a length, and

BOOK CLUB (#7) was not in for a tag at $16K in her last outing and won at KD this time last year on a course rated firm, and

JUSTANEWKIDINTOWN (#8) has a race over the track, and while she lost, it was at a significantly higher level. She's been competitive in open claiming races her last two outings.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

DEPART DOVER (#1) and GREAT CROSS (#2) box.


Race 2. Starter Allowance $10,000, 3YO & up, $42,000, 6 1/2 Furlongs

FIRM TURF: I am keying 2 with 13-15-16 and 13-15-16 with 2.
LESS THAN FIRM TURF: I am going 2 with 6-13-16 and 6-13-16 with 2.

FIRM TURF


PURELY BOY (#2), a Ramsey color-bearer with great turf breeding, has won three straight on both firm and good ground.

WITH

FOREST ELF (#13) can run well on various types of ground and lost a grade III by only 3 3/4 lengths on May 1, and

IMPASSABLE CANYON (#15) has good early speed and has hit the board four of six times this year, and

SHIMMY TINJO (#16) has six board hits in 10 career turf races. Also note a recent board hit on good turf.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

PURELY BOY (#2), a Ramsey color-bearer, has won three straight on both firm and good ground.

WITH

REAL POWER (#6) has among his best Brisnet figs an 81 on good turf, making him potentially competitive in this group.

FOREST ELF (#13) can run well on various types of ground and lost a grade III by only 3 3/4 lengths on May 1, and

SHIMMY TINJO (#16) has six board hits in 10 career turf races. Also note a recent board hit on good turf.


Race 3. Claiming N2L $30,000, Fillies & Mares 3YO & up, $40,000, 7 Furlongs

FIRM TURF: I am keying 11 with 1-5-7-9 and 1-5-7-9 with 11.
LESS THAN FIRM TURF: I am boxing 1-5-9-11.

FIRM TURF


TAYLOR LANE (#11) has been running at a much higher level since breaking her maiden.

WITH

KITTEN DANCE (#1) appears to be an improving type with Florent Geroux getting the mount, and

ELAINE KOWALESKI (#5) drops in class after running very well in her last two, and

BESIDE STILL WATER (#7) runs for Ramsey and Maker, gets Albarado and recently learned how to win. Downside is that she faces winners for the first time, and

CURLS IN PLACE (#9) is a daughter of Curlin, and the Smart Strike influence was felt on Day 1 of this meet. Also, she's run OK on tracks rated good.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

1. ELAINE KOWALESKI (#5) drops in class after running very well in her last two, including one on a good track.

2. KITTEN DANCE (#1) appears to be an improving type with Florent Geroux getting the mount.

3. TAYLOR LANE (#11) has been running at a much higher level since breaking her maiden. Didn't perform well in a good-track race showing in the PP's, but that was 17 months ago.

4. CURLS IN PLACE (#9) is a daughter of Curlin, and the Smart Strike influence was felt on Day 1 of this meet. Also, she's run OK on tracks rated good.


Race 4. Maiden Special Weight, Fillies 2YO, $120,000, 6 Furlongs

FIRM TURF


1. PAINT THE CORNERS (#14) may improve off her debut.

2. CINCO ZIPPY (#12) broke poorly last outing, her turf debut, and should run better with a clean break.

3. SAPPHIRE KITTEN (#1) debuts for the Ramsey's; trainer Sharp is 18% with debut turf runners.

4. CREEKER'S CAT (#4) was meant for turf in debut at Saratoga, ran poorly when it was taken off the turf, so she should be better this time around.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

1. PAINT THE CORNERS (#14) may improve off her debut.

2. CREEKER'S CAT (#4) was meant for turf in debut at Saratogo, ran poorly when it was taken off the turf, so should be better this time around.

3. CINCO ZIPPY (#12) broke poorly last outing, her turf debut, and should run better with a clean break.


Race 5. Allowance N1X/N2L, Fillies & Mares 3YO & up, $125,000, 1 5/16 Mile

FIRM TURF


1. INTERJECT (#5) ships in from California for Neil Drysdale, who was one-for-three at last year's meet. She was recently second at Del Mar.

2. PERFECT FLUTE (#2) is a Bill Mott trainee that has run roughly equivalent Brisnet numbers on both firm and soft turf.

3. FREETHINKER (#1) and B ROCKETT (#1A) both have Corey Lanerie named to ride, so apparently only one will run for trainer Oliver, who has done well at the track in the past. The latter was fourth in a grade III on May 1.

4. ROCK ME MAMA (#13) takes blinkers off for trainer Maker and recently ran fifth at Saratoga going a little longer than this after being bumped hard at the break.

If any of the above scratch, consider OH WISE ONE (#10), a son of Dunkirk that's been rounding into form after a long layoff.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

1. PERFECT FLUTE (#2) is a Bill Mott trainee that has run roughly equivalent Brisnet numbers on both firm and soft turf.

2. TIZ KISMET (#7) won on a track rated good at Churchill Downs in June.

3. SUSIE'S BABY (#8) has won but was disqualified and has finished second but was elevated to first via disqualification of another. The time she was taken down came on a course rated good going 1 3/16 mile. Julien Leparoux accepts the mount.


Race 6. Maiden Special Weight, Fillies 2YO, $120,000, 6 Furlongs

These are babies, and there's very little comparative form.

FIRM TURF OR LESS THAN FIRM TURF

1. MINES AND MAGIC (#9) is fascinating because she finished fourth here just five days before this race. It is as if that outing, where she was 20 lengths behind at the first call, is being treated as a workout. The dam sire of the Mineshaft filly is Smart Strike.

2. FAMILY TREE (#8) is brought in by connections who've seen success at Kentucky Downs, owners Gary and Mary West and trainer Wayne Catalano. Channing Hill and Catalano have teamed to win many times at the track.

3. THECLA (#5) looks like she has potential because Florent Geroux rides for trainer Maker.

4. SOUND DEFENCE (#6) gets the services of Julien Leparoux for trainer Casse and prominent owner Gary Barber after a bullet work on Aug. 25.

SPICEY BLONDE (#3) will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux for Wesley Ward. Brisnet stats say they've teamed for three wins in five starts. The filly hasn't worked since Aug. 24, and that concerns me, but if she makes it to the starting gate, maybe she's ready despite the lack of a recent workout.

Also noting just for the record that ETSU (#2) gets first Lasix, but Leparoux jumped ship to ride Sound Defence.


Race 7. Allowance Optional Claiming N2X/N3L, Fillies and Mares 3YO & up, $100,000, 6 1/2 Furlongs

FIRM TURF


1. ASIA (#3) is very fast and recently ran at Saratoga.

2. KOOL KAT (#8) looks like a well-meant shipper from California.

3. BE PLAYFUL (#15) is a Team Block runner that hasn't been off the board in seven starts this year, and his races have come on either firm, good or yielding turf.

4. PLATITUDE (#14) has run second at the track and recently blitzed a turf sprint field at Del Mar.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

1. ANASURA (#2) ran her highest career Brisnet figure on yielding turf.

2. ZIPSO FACTO (#9) ran her highest career Brisnet figure on yielding turf and gets Florent Geroux.

3. ASIA (#3) is very fast and recently ran at Saratoga.

4. BE PLAYFUL (#15) is a Team Block runner that hasn't been off the board in seven starts this year on firm, good and yielding turf.


Race 8. Glen Hill Farm One Dreamer Stakes, Fillies and Mares 3YO & up, $150,000, One Mile 70 Yards (Division 1)

FIRM TURF: I am keying the 5 with the 2-3-9-10-11 and the 2-3-9-10-11 with the 5.
LESS THAN FIRM TURF: I am keying the 5 with the 2-3-10 and the 2-3-10 with the 5.

FIRM TURF


IN MY TIME (#5) has a win and a second from two starts at the track, both on firm turf; and recently she has a win and a second on turf rated good. Florent Geroux rides.

WITH

SEEKING TREASURE (#2) won at Kentucky Downs on 9-18-13 going seven furlongs in 1:22.85 on the lead on firm turf. Recently, she led to the furlong marker in a 1 3/16-mile grade III on a track rated good before giving way, and

RUSTY SLIPPER (#3) has been running almost exclusively in graded stakes since May 2013, and

AGUAFRIA (#9) has been right there all year on firm turf, and

LOTS O' LEX (#10) has been freshened and has a stalking running style, and

A LITTLE BIT SASSY (#11) hit the board at Saratoga in her most recent race.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

IN MY TIME (#5) has a win and a second from two starts at the track, both on firm turf; and recently she has a win and a second on turf rated good. Florent Geroux rides.

WITH

SEEKING TREASURE (#2) won at Kentucky Downs on 9-18-13 going seven furlongs in 1:22.85 on the lead on firm turf. Recently, she led to the furlong marker in a 1 3/16-mile grade III on a track rated good before giving way, and

RUSTY SLIPPER (#3) has been running almost exclusively in graded stakes since May 2013, and has decent figs on tracks rated good and yielding, and

LOTS O' LEX (#10) has been freshened, has a stalking running style and has placed second in two starts on good turf showing on the PP's.


Race 9. Glen Hill Farm One Dreamer Stakes, Fillies and Mares 3YO & up, $150,000, One Mile 70 Yards (Division 2)

FIRM TURF: I am keying the 6 with the 1-4-5-8-12 and the 1-4-5-8-12 with the 6.
LESS THAN FIRM TURF: I am keying the 6 with the 1-3-4-8-12 and the 1-3-4-8-12 with the 6.

FIRM TURF


KITTEN'S DUMPLINGS (#6) was a grade II winner on good turf at Saratoga last year, ran second on yielding track last time out and won a grade I at Keeneland on firm turf last fall.

WITH

INDUSTRIAL POLICY (#1) was recently shipped into Churchill Downs from Woodbine by trainer Casse with this race an apparent target. Five of her last 10 races were graded stakes, and

BITTY KITTY (#4) won at this track last year, overcoming a lot to close from 11th on a firm track. She has equivalent Brisnet speed figs to that effort on both good and soft ground, and

SAMIAM (#5) added blinkers last time out and crushed a field with a career-best effort. She has a ton of experience on less-than-firm ground with mixed sucess, and

V V GOODNIGHT (#8) has run five straight races on good ground, and that was preceded by a race on soft ground. This yielded a win and a second. Her numbers on firm ground are pretty much as good, and

ANNULMENT (#12) is coming in off a second-place finish in the W. Va. Governor's Cup, and prior to that she finished third on a yielding turf course.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

KITTEN'S DUMPLINGS (#6) was a grade II winner on good turf at Saratoga last year, ran second on yielding track last time out and won a grade I at Keeneland on firm turf last fall.

WITH

INDUSTRIAL POLICY (#1) was recently shipped into Churchill Downs from Woodbine by trainer Casse with this race an apparent target. Five of her last 10 races were graded stakes, and

INTERRUPTED (#3) has a win and a show from three efforts on a good track showing on the PP's, and

BITTY KITTY (#4) won at this track last year, overcoming a lot to close from 11th on a firm track. She has equivalent Brisnet speed figs to that effort on both good and soft ground, and

V V GOODNIGHT (#8) has run five straight races on good ground, and that was preceded by a race on soft ground. This yielded a win and a second. Her numbers on firm ground are pretty much as good, and

ANNULMENT (#12) is coming in off a second-place finish in the W. Va. Governor's Cup, and prior to that she finished third on a yielding turf course.


Race 10. Maiden Special Weight, Fillies and Mares 3YO & up, $120,000, 1 5/16 Mile

FIRM TURF


1. TRENSITA (#7), a daughter of Curlin out of a Giant's Causeway mare that is still learning, has run only one really bad race in seven starts and should be fine with the added distance of this race. From two starts on turf rated good, she has one second.

2. LA MAJESTIQUE (#5) overcame a lot to close for second on firm turf here last year, and if the turf is givng, it could be so much the better for her.

3. VENTURINI (#13), a son of Bernardini, comes in for high-percentage duo of Mott/Bridgmohan. With improvement in this, her second start, she stands a good chance.

4. RASTANORA (#10), who began her career in England, gets Florent Geroux. The daughter of Dynaformer may find this European-style course to her liking regardless of conditions. In two starts on wet turf, she has two fourths, one on a good track in England and one on a yielding track here.

LESS THAN FIRM TURF

1. TRENSITA (#7), a daughter of Curlin out of a Giant's Causeway mare that is still learning, has run only one really bad race in seven starts and should be fine with the added distance of this race. From two starts on turf rated good, she has one second.

2. PLACE DES VOSGES (#2) just missed after being bumped late on a track rated good at Churchill Downs in June. She closed well.

3. BELLE DE NUIT (#9) finished a neck behind Place des Vosges in that Churchill Downs race after leading into the stretch.

4. LA MAJESTIQUE (#5) overcame a lot to close for second on firm turf here last year, and if the turf is givng, it could be so much the better for her.

5. If any of these are scratched, consider RASTANORA (#10), who began her career in England and who gets Florent Geroux. The daughter of Dynaformer may find this European-style course to her liking regardless of conditions. In two starts on wet turf, she has two fourths, one on a good track in England and one on a yielding track here.

OK, for better or worse we're done. Hope everyone has good luck.

 

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