Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®
SUBSCRIBER NOTICE: Kentucky Derby/Preakness/Belmont Subscribers: Our Profile Busters Profile is posted. A side-by-Side chart of The Downey Profile Rankings is posted. Derby Trail Subscribers: Workouts on our Looking Good page now include every work this year. Also, please review last Friday's note about Girvin in the News and Commentary Section.
In 2017 we have two Subscription Pages, the same format used in 2015: (1) The tried and true Kentucky Derby Subscription, which include the Preakness and Belmont Stakes at no extra charge, and (2) The Derby Trail Subscription Page. For fuller descriptions, please click either of the two links immediately below.
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Battalion Runner was last ridden by John Velazquez
Malagacy was last ridden by Javier Castellano
Patch was last ridden by Tyler Gaffalione
Untrapped was last ridden by Mike Smith
Lookin at Lee was last ridden by Luis Contreras
Louisville rain probs as of late Thursday night: Friday morning little chance, Friday afternoon 30%, Friday night 90%, Saturday morning 20%, Saturday night 10%, Sunday morning 20%, Sunday night 90%, Monday morning 20%, Monday night 0%, Tuesday morning 0%
Kentucky Derby/Preakness/Belmont Subscribers: Our Profile Busters Profile is posted. A side-by-Side chart of The Downey Profile Rankings is posted.
Jan. 10, five in 1:01.80 Breezing 3/4 at PBD
Jan. 18, five in 1:01.60 Breezing 2/3 at PBD
Feb. 11, four in 47.80 Breezing 1/18 at PBD
Feb. 18, four in 49:20 Breezing 10/24 at PBD
Feb. 25, four in 47:80 Breezing 4/28 at PBD
March 18, four in 48:00 Breezing 1/20 at PBD
March 25, four in 48:40 Breezing 1/26 at PBD
April 14, four in 49:55 Breezing 5/18 at PBD
April 21, four in 1.01:40 Breezing 1/6 at PBD
Jan. 14, four in 48.20 Breezing 1/16 at PBD
Jan. 21, five in 1:01.40 Breezing 3/8 at PBD
Jan. 27, five in 1:01.40 Breezing 3/4 at PBD
Feb. 25, four in 49:20 Breezing 16/28 at PBD
March 4, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 1/13 at PBD
March 11, six in 1.13:80 Breezing 1/3 PBD
March 18, five in 1.01:20 Breezing 3/8 at PBD
March 25, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 1/9 at PBD
April 2, four in 49.20 Breezing 5/14 at PBD
April 22, four in 48:96 Breezing training track27/113 at BEL
BATTLE OF MIDWAY
Jan. 4, five in 1:00.60 Handily gate 17/150 at SA
Jan. 15, six in 1:13.40 Handily 5/36 at SA
Jan. 29, four in 48.60 Handily 26/57 at SA
Feb. 5, five in 1:04.20 Handily 85/91 at SA
Feb. 21, four in 49:80 Handily 33/36 at SA
Feb. 27, five in 59:40 Handily 2/29 at SA
March 5, five in 1.00:20 Handily 1/43 at SA
March 19, four in 47:60 Handily 3/80 at SA
March 25, five in 59:80 Handily 7/75 at SA
April 1, six in 1.11:80 Handily 1/23 at SA
April 16, four in 48:40 Handily 14/53 at SA
April 22, five in 1.00:60 Handily 14/37 at SA
Jan. 8, four in 49.00 Breezing 14/22 at PMM
Jan. 16, five in 1:02.55 Breezing 8/11 at PMM
Jan. 21, five in 1:00.75 Breezing gate 3/18 at PMM
Jan. 28, five in 1:03.90 Breezing 25/28 at PMM
March 12, four in 48:95 Breezing 3/34 at PMM
March 22, five in 1.01:40 Breezing 1/2 at WND
March 28, five in 59:30 Breezing from gate 1/2 at WND
April 3, five in 59.80 Breezing from gate 1/4 at WND
April 8, four in 50.00 Breezing 1/2 at WND
FAST AND ACCURATE
Jan. 4, five in 1:02.20 Breezing 3/12 at TP
Jan. 11, five in 1:02.40 Breezing 11/20 at TP
Jan. 21, five in 1:00.20 Breezing 1/12 at TP
Jan. 28, five in 1;02.20 Breezing 3/14 at TP
Feb. 11, five in 1:00.40 Breezing 2/16 at TP
March 4, four in 47.40 Breezing 4/58 at GP
March 11, five in 1:02.40 Breezing 21/35 at GP
March 18, five in 1;01.60 Breezing 12/44 at GP
April 8, four in 47:60 Breezing 4/16 at CDT
April 15, five in 59:60 Breezing 1/15 at CDT
April 23, five in 1.00:20 Breezing good track 2/11 at CDT
Dec. 31, four in 49.62 Breezing 31/111 at EVT
Jan. 14, five in 1:01.30 Breezing at 12/49 at EVT
Jan. 29, five in 1:00.40 Breezing 3/31 at FG
Feb. 17, 49:20 Breezing 21/56 at FG
March 11, four in 49:00 Breezing 19/86 at FG
March 18, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 8/54 at FG
March 25, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 4/23 at FG
April 15, four in 47:80 Breezing 1/30 at CDT
Jan. 2, five in 1:00.60 Handily good track 3/9 at SA
Jan. 18, four in 51.20 Handily 112/115 at SA
Jan. 26, five in 1:00.80 Handily 30/87 at SA
Feb. 2 four in 49:60 Handily 43/73 at SA
Feb. 10, five in 1.02:40 Handily 78/101 at SA
Feb. 20, four in 47:80 Handily 8/49 at SA
Feb. 27, six in 1.11:00 Handily 1/14 at SA
March 6, five in 1.02:40 Handily 30/37 at SA
March 21, four in 48:80 Handily 21/41 at SA
March 25, three in 37:00 Handily 9/21 at SA
March 27, five in 1.02:00 Handily 32/53 at SA
April 2, six in 1.14:00 Handily 3/10 at SA
April 15, three in 37.80 Handily 14/16 at SA
April 22, six in 1.15:80 Handily 10/11 at SA
Dec. 31, five in 59.85 Breezing 1/29 at GPW
Jan. 8, five in 58.80 Breezing 1/22 at GPW
Jan. 14, five in 1:01.00 Breezing 5/30 at GPW
Jan. 21, five in 1:00.85 Breezing 3/30 at GPW
Jan. 28, five in 1:00.400 Breezing 4/21 at GPW
Feb. 18, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/20 at GPW
Feb. 25, five furlongs at GPW, too foggy to clock
March 18, five in 1.04:60 Breezing 22/24 at GPW
March 25, five in 1.01:80 Breezing 7/21 at GPW
April 15, five in 1.00:60 Breezing 3/13 at GPW
April 21, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/15 at GPW
Jan. 13, four in 52.00 Breezing 72/80 at OP
Feb. 1, five in 1:02.20 Breezing 8/23 at OP
Feb. 15, 50:00 Breezing on a muddy track 5/13 at FG
March 11, five in 1.02:00 Breezing 18/37 at OP
March 18, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 10/41 at OP
April 10, four in 47:80 6/17 at CD
April 17, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 1/16 at CD
April 24, four in 1.00:00 Breezing 3/31 at CD
Jan. 8, four in 51.80 Handily good training track 58/64 at SA
Jan. 15, five in 1:01.00 Handily 20/122 at SA
Jan. 21, four in 48.00 good training track 2/36 at SA
Jan. 28, six in 1:14.60 Handily 13/24 at SA
Feb. 16, four in 47:80 Handily 23/146 at SA
March 10, four in 48:60 Handily 14/44 at SA
March 17, six in 1.13:60 Handily 5/19 at SA
April 21, one mile in 1:44.00 Breezing 1/1 at KEE
IRISH WAR CRY
Dec. 8 five in 1:01.60 Breezing 4/5 at FAI
Dec. 14, five in 1:02.40 Breezing 1/4 at FAI
Dec. 23, six in 1:15.60 Breezing 1/1 at FAI
Jan. 22, four in 48.95 Breezing 4/28 at PMM
Jan. 28, five in 1:01.00 Breezing 3/28 at PMM
Feb. 25, five in 1.01:65 Breezing 14/17 at PMM
March 25, five in 1.01:10 Breezing 14/34 at PMM
April 2, six in 1.13:40 Breezing 1/3 at FAI
J BOYS ECHO
Jan. 7, five in 1:01.20 Breezing 7/51 at GP
Jan. 14, five in 59.60 Breezing 8/48 at GP
Jan. 21, four in 50.60 Breezing 63/80 at GP
Jan. 31, four in 51.60 Breezing 32/34 at GP
Feb. 19, four in 51:95 Breezing 42/43 at GP
Feb. 25, five in 1.01:82 Breezing 4/21 at GP
March 18, four in 52:51 Breezing 66/66 at GP
March 25, five in 1.02:89 Breezing 19/24 at GP
April 1, five in 1.00:69 Breezing 7/20 at GP
April 17, four in 49:20 Breezing 6/10 at CD
April 23, five in 1.02:20 Breezing 26/38 at CD
LOOKIN AT LEE
Dec. 24, four in 52.20 Breezing 129/146 at FG
Dec. 31, four in 50.00 Breezing 57/140 at FG
Jan. 6, five in 1:02.80 Breezing 18/27 at FG
Jan. 13, five in 1:01.60 Breezing 11/27 at FG
Jan. 20. five in 1:02.00 Breezing 9/34 at FG
Jan. 27, six in 1:13.40 Breezing 3/4 at FG
Feb. 3, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/53 at FG
Feb. 13, four in 50:20 Breezing 26/35 at OP
March 9, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 8/40 at OP
March 15, four in 50:00 Breezing 14/26 at OP
March 27, four in 52:00 Breezing good track 15/19 at OP
April 2, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 2/26 at OP
April 9, four in 51:00 Breezing34/39 at OP
April 24, four in 51:20 Breezing 48/51 at CD
Dec. 30, five in 1:01.00 Breezing 1/4 at PBD
Jan. 21, four in 49.40 Breezing 16/25 at PBD
Jan. 27, five in 1:01.40 Breezing 3/4 at PBD
Feb. 4, four in 48:00 Breezing 1/14 at PBD
Feb. 25, four in 48:60 Breezing 7/28 at PBD
March 4, five in 1.02:40 Breezing 9/13 at PBD
March 11, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 1/4 at PBD
April 1, four in 48:95 Breezing 3/17 at PBD
April 8, five in 1.01:45 Breezing 2/7 at PBD
Dec. 15, four in 50.80 Breezing 31/44 at PMM
Dec. 22, four in 49.75 Breezing 18/41 at PMM
Dec. 30, four in 50.50 Breezing 31/49 at PMM
Jan. 9, four in 50.50 Breezing 16/18 at PMM
Jan. 13, five in 1:01.95 Breezing 1/13 at PMM
Jan. 18, five in 1:02.20 Breezing 9/11 at PMM
Jan. 25, five in 1:00.45 Breezing 1/10 at PMM
Jan. 31, five in 1:01.10 Breezing 2/15 at PMM
Feb. 6, four in 49:60 Breezing 18/24 at PMM
Feb. 27, four in 48:90 Breezing 6/27 at PMM
March 11, four in 50:20 Breezing 62/76 at PMM
March 20, five in 1:00 Breezing 1/7 at KEE
March 27, six in 1.13:40 Breezing 1/2 at KEE
April 2, four in 49:40 Breezing 14/35 at KEE
April 18, four in 47:80 Breezing 2/17 at CD
April 24, five in 1.00:60 Breezing 6/31 at CD
Downey Profile subscribers to the Kentucky Derby service have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, Downey's in-depth post-race analyses of the Kentucky Derby prep races starting with the Risen Star Stakes, special NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!
Our Derby Trail Subscription Service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from trainers, jockeys and owners. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were:
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)
For the first time, Downey put together a superfecta part wheel for subscribers. The cost for a $1 ticket was $88, and we were fortunate enough to see that bet hit and pay $542.10.
The Commish picked:
1. EXAGGERATOR (second)
2. NYQUIST (first)
3. MY MAN SAM (eleventh)
4. WHITMORE (nineteenth)
5. MO TOM (eighth)
The Commish stuck to his guns with Exaggerator in the Preakness, and he won the race.
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)
The Commish picked:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FIRING LINE (second)
4. FROSTED (fourth)
5. CARPE DIEM (tenth)
The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. In 2017, the site went live before the Feb. 25 Risen Star Stakes.
We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.
Thanks for everything, and it's good see you again.
--By Dick Downey
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page is an introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a variety of factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to firstname.lastname@example.org.
A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES: "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."
In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.
In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in A workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it. In addition, Downey's top 5 selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five.
In 2016, Nyquist, a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.
After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness + Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.
A Little About Us and Our Products
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, a sole proprietorship. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.
While the website has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.
Our Derby Trail Subscription was offered in 2015 and did well, and it's back in 2017. That information was offered free in 2016 because illness in Downey's family shortened our coverage. This service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from and about trainers, jockeys, owners and the horses. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.