Kentucky Derby and Horse Racing at The Downey Profile®


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Dick Downey is a frequent contributor to BloodHorse on legal issues affecting the Thoroughbred industry and is the founder, owner and operator of The Downey Profile, a boutique, seasonal website focused on the runup to the Kentucky Derby. Downey created The Downey Profile for the 2003 Kentucky Derby after conducting a 300-hour study of factors most likely to be present in Kentucky Derby winners versus non-winners based on data in Daily Racing Form past performance charts since 1973. He's been updating that work ever since and is now in his 22d consecutive year covering the Derby at The Downey Profile. Downey's top Kentucky Derby selections won six straight runnings from 2014 through 2019. For more details about his past Derby selections, please scroll down.



Updated: Overview of The Downey Profile


Kentucky Derby Leaderboard effective March 9, 2024


2024 Future Wager Pool 5

Includes exacta grid


2024 Triple Crown Nominations


Jeff Ruby Steaks

Saturday, March 23
1 Freedom Principle (A Beschizza, J Garaffalo) 30-1
2 Dancing Groom (F Dettori, A Sano ) 15-1
3 Lucky Jeremy (G Corrales, B Morey) 10-1
4 Noted (L Saez, T Pletcher) 10-1
5 Agate Road (J Ortiz, T Pletcher) 4-1
6 Northern Flame (J Leparoux, K McPeek) 5-1
7 Woodcourt (L Machado, C Contreras) 6-1
8 Otello (J Castellano, C Clement) 12-1
9 Seize the Grey (N Juarez, W Lukas) 8-1
10 Endlessly (U Rispoli, M McCarthy) 5-2
11 Baytown Chatterbox (A Jiminez, P McEntee) 30-1
12 West Saratoga (J Castanon, L Demeritte) 20-1
Also-Eligibles
Circle P (T Conner, F Stites) 30-1
Triple Espresso (Ortiz, Pletcher) 20-1


Louisiana Derby

Saturday, March 23
1 Triple Espresso (T Pletcher) 20-1
2 Hall of Fame (S Asmussen) 8-1
3 Antiquarian (T Pletcher) 12-1
4 Agate Road (T Pletcher) 8-1
5 Catching Freedom (B Cox) 4-1
6 Awesome Ruta (J Foster) 30-1
7 Honor Marie (W Beckman) 8-1
8 Next Level (K Desormeaux) 30-1
9 Real Men Violin (K McPeek) 20-1
10 Common Defense (K McPeek) 6-1
11 Tuscan Gold (C Brown) 8-1
12 Track Phantom (S Asmussen) 3-1

)
March 9 Tampa Bay Derby

1 Domestic Product  2 No More Tim  3 Grand Mo the First  4 Good Money  5 Heartened

T: Chad Brown J: Tyler Gaffalione  O: Klaravich Stables Inc.  B: Klaravich Stables (KY)

Domestic Product and No More Time topped the Tampa Bay Derby in a blanket finish and in that order. The race was run with the tote inoperable in Tampa and other east coast tracks. Good Money led through crawling fractions of 25.25, 51.15 and 1:16.21, with No More Time attending and Domestic Product waiting in mid-pack for the other one to make his move. That happened as they rounded the far turn. No More Time and Javier Castellano grabbed the lead in upper stretch only to be run down in the final jump by Domestic Product under Tyler Gaffalione. Grand Mo the First, who was running early with Domestic Product, was right there at the wire for third. Good Money was fourth and Heartened made a late move up the rail to get fifth. The winning time was 1:45.47. The Tampa Bay Derby, race 11 on the card, went off at 5:51 ET after an announced post time of 5:18. Payoffs for race 10 and 11 (for those who bet before the tote went down) are still pending. The final race 12 was canceled. Kentucky Derby points 50-25-15-10-5.


Si's Selections
TAMPA BAY DERBY
There is a 25% chance of rain. The outlook is for a fast track. Gaffalione is 43% winner and five times in the money. Pletcher in the $ 54%. Trainer D'Angelo is 50% winner last 30 days. Trainer Barbazo winning at 27% clip.
#5 DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 8-5, Gaffalione/Brown. At the top of his game
#7 NO MORE TIME, 7-5, Castellano/D'Angelo. Brilliant workouts
#10 STURDY, 8-1, Alvarado/Weaver. Strong closer
# 9 GRAND MO THE FIRST, 12-1, Camacho/Barboza. Son of Uncle Mo primed for BIG effort
Sleeper for superfecta #1 Heartened, 10-1, J Oritz/Pletcher

March 3 San Felipe Stakes

Kentucky Derby points: 50-25-15-10-5

1 Imagination  2 Wine Me Up  3 Mc Vay  4 Scatify

T: Bob Baffert  J: L Dettori  O: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert E. Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan and Tom J. Ryan  B: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC

Imagination bested Wine Me Up by a head to win the San Felipe Stakes and top a Bob Baffert $2 exacta worth $8.00 in a field left with four starters after the scratch of their highly-regarded stablemate Nysos. Wine Me Up, sent off at 8-5 odds, was fast out of the gate and led into the first quarter-mile timed in 23.51 with Imagination next, followed by Scatify and Mc Vay. Early in the backstretch Frankie Dettori let Imagination go in front. With a half-mile timed in 47.84, the 4-5 favorite led the field into and around the far turn only to be confronted to his inside with a resurgent Wine Me Up under Juan Hernandez as the other two runners were competing for third. The leaders turned for home with 1:11.51 on the clock. Wine Me Up got ahead mid-stretch but couldn't turn back Imagination as they hit the wire in 1:44.51 bobbing in tandem. Mc Vay was third, Scatify a very distant fourth.


A stewards inquiry looked into Scatify's run into the first turn in tight behind Wine Me Up without resulting in any changes to the order of finish. Imagination was purchased for $1,050,000 at Keeneland September 2022. Kentucky Derby points available: 50-25-15-10; however the top two finishers are not eligible to compete due to an ongoing ban of Baffert racing at Churchill Downs.


March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes

Kentucky Derby points: 50-25-15-10-5

1 Dornoch  2 Frankie's Empire  3 Le Dom Bro  4 Real Macho  5 Dancing Groom

T: Danny Gargan  J: Luis Saez  O: West Paces Racing LLC, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC and Pine Racing Stables  B: Grandview Equine (KY)

A scratch-laden Fountain of Youth Stakes was won by heavy favorite Dornoch after he finally shook off stubborn longshot Le Dom Bro in the stretch after that one pressed him from the inside for most of the race. After breaking second to Le Dom Bro, Dornoch led through each call in honest fractions of 24.35, 48.14 and 1:11.43 before hitting the finish line in 1:43.64 on a fast track. Le Dom Bro held on for second just in front of the late-running Frankie's Empire. Real Macho was fourth after stalking the pace down the backside. Dancing Groom was fifth and last.


Second betting choice Speak Easy was a late scratch after getting loose on the track minutes before the race. Locked and Victory Avenue were scratched this morning, and Merit raced in an allowance on Friday instead of the Fountain of Youth. Derby points were available to each runner 50-25-15-10-5; however, Frankie's Empire and Le Dom Bro were not early-nominated to the Triple Crown. They can be late-nominated for $6,000 and pick up the points.


March 2 Gotham Stakes

Kentucky Derby points: 50-25-15-10-5

1 Deterministic  2 Just A Touch  3 El Grande O  4 Maximus Meridius  5 Capital Idea

T: Christophe Clement  J: Joel Rosario  O: St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable  B: Hinkle Farms (KY)

Deterministic came on after a stalking trip on a sloppy track to take the lead late and prevail in a rainy Gotham Stakes under Joel Rosario for trainer Christophe Clement. The one-turn mile was timed in a respectable 1:36.73. Just A Touch was second after vying for third with Deterministic in the early going. El Grande O ran closest to the lead down the backside and joined pacesetter Maximus Meridius with a quarter-mile to go. He looked like a winner after taking the lead in upper stretch only to hang on for third. Pacesetter Maximus Meridius faded to fourth after clipping off splits of 23.42, 46.63 and 1:10.94. Capital Idea was a non-threatening fifth. The top four were ahead of the remaining field the entire trip. Kentucky Derby points 50-25-15-10-5.

March 2 John Battaglia Memorial

Kentucky Derby points: 20-10-6-4-2

1 Encino  2 Epic Ride  3 Blue Eyed George  4 Mugatu  5 Ode to Balius

T: Brad Cox  J: Axel Concepcion  O: Godolphin B: Godolphin (KY)

Encino broke well from post 12, settled in fifth early, rated up the backstretch, gained ground on the outside in the far turn, and outran his competion to the wire in 1:44.22 under Axel Concepcion for trainer Brad Cox. Bolt at Midnight led through early fractions of 24.84 and 48.31 on the Tapeta surface, initally followed most closely by longshot Fidget, short-priced Blue Eyed George and favored Epic Ride. The latter one made a bold move in the far turn with Encino charging up to his outside. Six furlongs were gone in 1:12.98. Epic Ride left the turn on the lead but yielded late to Encino. Blue Eyed George stayed on to finish third. Mugatu came on fourth at 68-1 odds, and Ode to Balius, another longshot, picked up pieces to finish fifth. 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby points were available. The fourth and fifth finishers weren't early-nominated to the Triple Crown but will be awarded points if late-nominated.


Si's Selections
Gotham Stakes

#8 BERGEN 9/2 Franco/Cox. Strong closer (eighth at 4-1)
#11 LIGHTLINE 8-1 Vazquez/Cox. Improving every race (seventh at 17-1)

#1 KHANATE 30-1 Gomez/Pletcher. Calumet entry, blinkers off

#7 El GRANDE O 8-1 Carmouche/Rice. Son of Take Charge Indy, top rider-trainer combo (third at 5-1


John Battaglia Memorial

#12 ENCINO 9/2 (first at 5-1)
#4 BOLT AT MIDNIGHT 4-1 (sixth at 7-2)
#6 EPIC RIDE 5/2 (second at 1-1)
#7 BLUE EYED GEORGE 6-1 (third at 7-2)


San Felipe Stakes

#3 NYSOS 1/5

#2 WINE ME UP 8-1
#5 IMAGINATION 6-1


Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes

Kentucky Derby Points (50-25-15-10-5)

1 Timberlake  2 Common Defense  3 Northern Flame  4 Woodcourt  5 Dimatic

T: Brad Cox  J: Cristian Torres  O: WinStar Farm LLC  B: St. Elias Stables LLC (KY)

It was the favorite Timberlake, easily, at 4-5 odds in the Rebel Stakes. He laid in fifth early as Carbone led through honest fractions of 23.20 and 47.67 with Northern Flame, Common Defense and Woodcourt in closest pursuit. Into the far turn and six furlongs in 1:12.93, the top three were unchanged as Timberlake eased wide into fourth place. Carbone spit the bit in upper stretch as Timberlake surged to the front, drifted out and won going away in 1:44.00. The other early runners, longshots all, stayed on with Common Defense second, Northern Flame third, Woodcourt fourth. Dimatic was fifth.


Feb. 24 Saudi Derby

No Kentucky Derby points

1 Forever Young  2 Book'em Danno  3 Bentornato

T: Yoshito Yahagi  J: Ryusei Sakai  O: Susumu Fujita  B: Northern Racing (JPN)

Heavily favored Forever Young (JPN) came running very late and stuck his nose in front of U. S. invader Book'em Danno to win the 1600 meter (about one mile) race at King Abdulaziz Racetrack in Riyadh. The winning time going one turn was 1:36.17. The pacesetting Bentornato, also based in the U. S., faded to third. The win sets up Forever Young for his intended target, the UAE Derby, on the road to the Kentucky Derby. The second and third finishers were not among early nominees to the Triple Crown.


Feb. 23 Al Bastakiya

No Kentucky Derby points

1 Killer Collect  2 Auto Bahn  3 Tactical Bound  4 Destructive

T: Bhupat Seemar  J: Tadhg O'Shea  O: Burke, Michael Hilary and Burke, Negar  B:  Romar Farm LLC & BRS (KY)

Triple Crown-nominated Killer Collect was tenacious winning the 1 3/16-mile Al Bastakiya for 3yo's at Meydan a few minutes ago. Under Tadhg O'Shea for trainer Bhupat Seemar, once Killer Collect established the lead his only serious challenger became Auto Bahn (not TC-nominated) to his outside. Those two were about five lengths in front at the top of the stretch, and Killer Collect refused to yield in an exciting finish, hitting the wire in 1:59.01 and a head in front. Tactical Bound was third, 5 1/2 lengths back. Destructive fourth.


Feb. 18 Sunland Park Derby

Kentucky Derby Points (20-10-6-4-2)

1 Stronghold 2 Alotaluck 3 Lucky Jeremy 4 Curlin's Kaos 5 Informed Patriot

T: Phil D'Amato J: Antonio Fresu O: Eric M. Waller and Sharon Waller B: Eric Waller and Sharon Waller (KY)

Despite drifting out in the stretch, 6-5 favorite Stronghold held sway to win the 1 1/16-mile Sunland Park Derby. Lucky Jeremy shot to the early lead but was initially pressured by both the eventual winner and Alotofluck as they ran through the first quarter-mile in 23.69. Lucky Jeremy battled with Stronghold through subsequent fractions of 47.45 and 1:11.32. Stronghold got clear in mid-stretch while out in the middle of the track, hitting the wire in 1:42.64. Alotaluck stayed on and narrowly edged Lucky Jeremy for the place. Curlin's Kaos and Informed Patriot finished fourth and fifth.


Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes

Kentucky Derby Points (50-25-15-10-5)

1 Sierra Leone  2 Track Phantom  3 Catching Freedom  4 Resilience  5 Honor Marie

T: Chad Brown  J: Tyler Gaffalione  O: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, Smith Westerberg, Brook T. and Peter M. Brant  B: Debby M. Oxley (KY)

In a full field of 12, favored Sierra Leone came on late after trailing modest early fractions to win the Risen Star Stakes in 1:52.13 on a track that was sloppy all day. Track Phantom led through splits of 24.32, 49.67, 1:14.74 and 1:39.40 before yielding late to the winner by a half-length. As the field passed the finish line the first time, Sierra Leone had three horses beat. Catching Freedom, mid-pack early, made a solid bid to get a close third. Resilience, always prominent, hung on for fourth. Honor Marie fifth. Hall of Fame faded to seventh after a far turn move. Kentucky Derby points: 50-25-15-10-5.


Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes

Kentucky Derby Points (20-10-6-4-2)

1 No More Time  2 Agate Road  3 West Saratoga  4 Elysian Meadows  5 Fulmineo

T: Jose Francisco D'Angelo  J: Paco Lopez  O: Morplay Racing LLC  B: MAMAS Thoroughbreds LLC (IA)

In the Sam F. Davis Stakes, No More Time stayed on well after leading through early splits of 23.52 and 46.61 while pressed by West Saratoga, eventually outran that one and easily held off a late move by Agate Road. West Saratoga third by several lengths, Elysian Meadows and Fulmineo fourth and fifth. Final time a respectable 1:43.26.


Feb. 3 Foursome

Kentucky Derby Points Races (20-10-6-4-2)

WITHERS STAKES

1 Uncle Heavy  2 El Grande O  3 Lightline  4 Deposition  5 Khanate

T: Robert Reid Jr; J: Mychel Sanchez; O: Michael Milam; B: Barbara Reid (PA)

El Grande O took took the wet surface again on or contending for the lead and shook off challengers, but it was the closing Uncle Heavy (9-1) who was best, nailing El Grande O (4-1) at the wire in the 1 1/8-mile Withers. Favored Lightline third, longshot Deposition fourth, a fading Khanate fifth. Nine ran. Fractions 24.14, 49.49, 1:14.44, 1:40.17 and the final in 1:53.79.


ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES

1 Nysos  2 Wine Me Up  3 Scatify  4 Mc Vay  5 Moonlit Sonata

T: Bob Baffert J: Flavien Prat O: Bamo Corp. (Charles and Su Chu) B: Atkins Susie (KY)

Nysos the one by a pole in the Bob Lewis Stakes, bided his time behind Scatify, Wine Me Up, Mc Vay, then blew by coming out of the far turn. Early splits were quick 22.81 and 46.67, then 1:11.11 when Nysos wound up and fired the fast ball. Seven in 1:23.86, final in 1:36.65. Next four finishers were Wine Me Up, Scatify, Mc Vay and Moonlit Sonata.

SOUTHWEST STAKES

1  Mystik Dan  2 Just Steel  3 Liberal Arts  4 Awesome Road  5 Common Defense

T: Kenny McPeek J: Brian Hernandez, Jr. O: Lance Gasaway, 4G Racing LLC and Daniel Hamby III B: Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing (KY)

Wow, Mystik Dan won by a pole too with Brian Hernandez, Jr. sneaking up the rail to blow by early stretch leader Just Steel in the Southwest Stakes. Liberal Arts almost up for second but not quite. Awesome Road and Common Defense fourth and fifth. Early pacesetters Carbone and Otto the Conqueror not around late. Track muddy. Fractions 23.56, 47.95, 1:13.23, 1:37.74, 1:43.67.

HOLY BULL STAKES

1  Hades  2 Domestic Product  3 Fierceness  4 Inveigled  5 Dancing Groom
T: Joe Orseno J: Paco Lopez O: D J Stable and Robert Cotran B: Ocala Stud, Joseph M. O'Farrell III , David O'Farrell et al (FL)

The Holy Bull wraps up today's Derby points foursome with strong favorite Fierceness not up to the task. Hades led all but a few strides -- Fierceness stuck a head in front to the outside after about six furlongs -- but Hades went on with it and Fierceness gave way to the late-running second finisher Domestic Product. Early contender Inveigled hung on for fourth, Dancing Groom fifth. Fractions on the fast track were moderate-to-slow 25.03, 50.53, 1:14.25, 1:39.28 and 1:46.07.



_________________________________________


Final 2023 Daily Derby Update


Lightly Raced Mage Charges Late to Kentucky Derby Victory


Churchill Downs Addresses Equine Fatalities


Gate Assignments for the Kentucky Derby

Posted by D. Downey on May 6

According to Churchill Downs, the 18-horse field will break from posts 1-18 in the 20-stall Kentucky Derby starting gate. Posts 19 and 20 will be empty.


Forte Late Scratch from Derby

Posted by D. Downey on May 6

Presumptive Kentucky Derby favorite Forte was scratched from the Kentucky Derby Saturday morning just after 9 a.m. ET following a gallop and an examination by state veterinarians. Videos on Twitter showed a veterinarian discussing the matter with owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher before the announcement was made. According to a Churchill Downs release, the scratch was ordered by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission due to Forte having a bruised right front foot. Forte stumbled during a gallop on Thursday. The scratch may lead to Tapit Trice, another Pletcher trainee, being the favorite. Pletcher also trains Kingsbarns. Forte is the fifth horse scratched from the Derby field.


Skinner Declared Out of Derby

Posted by D. Downey on May 5

Skinner was scratched from Kentucky Derby 149 Friday morning about trainer John Shirreffs, citing an elevated temperature. The defection leaves 19 starters in the field. Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar (JPN) were scratched on Thursday. Also-eligibles Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell drew into the main body of the field. All program numbers remain the same. The last time this many horses were scratched from the Kentucky Derby was 2015, the year American Pharoah won the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown.


Continuar Scratched

Posted by D. Downey on May 4

Continuar (JPN), who had put only one work in at Churchill Downs since arriving about a month ago from the U.A.E., was scratched from the Kentucky Derby Thursday night. King Russell, the last remaining also-eligible, has drawn into the race. If there are no more scratches, a full gate of 20 will be loaded for the Derby. King Russell will be in the far outside post 20, running under program number 23. Program numbers for all entries remain unchanged.


Lord Miles Ordered Out

Posted by D. Downey on May 4

The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission and stewards ordered Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee Lord Miles scratched from the Kentucky Derby late Thursday afternoon following the deaths of two horses trained by Joseph at the still-young Churchill Downs meet. Other horses entered by Joseph are also scratched until further notice, and Churchill Downs has banned him from entering horses indefinitely. The defection of Lord Miles opens the door for Mandarin Hero to make the main body of the Derby field. Lord Miles drew post 19, and his absence will move Continuar to post 18, Cyclone Mischief to post 19 and Mandarin Hero to post 20. Program numbers will not change. Subscription page content is up to date.


Practical Move Out

Posted by D. Downey on May 4

The winner of the Santa Anita Derby is out of the Kentucky Derby upon an announcement of his impending scratch Thursday afternoon. Trainer Tim Yakteen cited an elevated temperature as the reason for the defection of Practical Move. Dale Romans trainee Cyclone Mischief will draw into the field as a result. Next in line in case another horse defects is Mandarin Hero (JPN). Horses outside post 10, where Practical Move was to be stationed, will move inside one post. Program numbers will not change.


Derby PPs by Post Position


Friday's Daily Derby Update


Statement by Churchill Downs on Recent Fatalities

Transparency is an important component of our commitment to safety and accountability in horse racing. We share the concern of our fans who have questions about the recent equine fatalities at Churchill Downs Racetrack and we extend our sincere condolences to those who love and cared for these horses. More


Kentucky Derby/Oaks Workouts Shows

May 4, 2023  May 3, 2023   May 2, 2023   May 1, 2023   April 30, 2023   April 29, 2023   April 28, 2023   April 27, 2023  April 26, 2023   April 25, 2023   April 24, 2023


Link: Oaks/Derby Post Position Draw Replay


Link: Kentucky Derby Post Positions +

149th Kentucky Derby Field

Program #, Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning Line
1 Hit Show (Manny Franco, Brad Cox) 30-1
2 Verifying (Tyler Gaffalione, Brad Cox) 15-1
3 Two Phil’s (Jareth Loveberry, Larry Rivelli) 12-1
4 Confidence Game (James Graham, Keith Desormeaux) 20-1
5 Tapit Trice (Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher) 5-1
6 Kingsbarns (Jose Ortiz, Todd Pletcher) 12-1
7 Reincarnate (John Velazquez, Tim Yakteen) 50-1
8 Mage (Javier Castellano, Gustavo Delgado) 15-1
9 Skinner (Juan Hernandez, John Shirreffs) 20-1  SCRATCHED
1
0 Practical Move (Ramon Vazquez, Tim Yakteen) 10-1  SCRATCHED
11 Disarm (Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen) 30-1
12 Jace’s Road (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox) 50-1
13 Sun Thunder (Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek) 50-1
14 Angel of Empire (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox) 8-1
15 Forte (Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher) 3-1 SCRATCHED
16 Raise Cain (Gerardo Corrales, Ben Colebrook) 50-1
17 Derma Sotogake (JPN) (Christophe Lemaire, Hidetaka Otonashi) 10-1
18 Rocket Can (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott) 30-1
19 Lord Miles (Paco Lopez, Saffie Joseph Jr.) 30-1  SCRATCHED
20 Continuar (JPN) (Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi) 50-1  SCRATCHED
21 Cyclone Mischief (Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Joel Rosario, Dale Romans) 30-1
22 Mandarin Hero (JPN) (Kazushi Kimura, Terunobu Fujita) 20-1
23 King Russell (Rafael Bejarano, Ron Moquett) 50-1
Blinkers on: Rocket Can, Sun Thunder


Link: Kentucky Oaks, Derby, Preakness on TV


Recent Kentucky Derby Workouts

Tuesday
Derma Sotogake (JPN) 49:60 Breezing 13/20 CD dirt fast
Mandarin Hero (JPN) (AE) 1.05:60 Breezing 15/15 CD dirt fast
Sun Thunder 47:80 Breezing 3/20 CD dirt fast

Monday

Disarm 49.20 Breezing 15/30 CD dirt fast


Sunday
Rocket Can 59.80 Breezing 4/35 CD dirt fast


Saturday

Angel of Empire 1.01:40 Breezing 23/54 CD dirt fast
Confidence Game 59:00 Breezing 1/54 CD dirt fast
Cyclone Mischief 1.00:80 Breezing 16/54 CD dirt fast
Forte 49:80 Breezing 96/149 CD dirt fast
Hit Show 59.60 Breezing 4/54 CD dirt fast
Jace's Road 1.01:20 Breezing 21/54 CD dirt fast

King Russell 47.80 Breezing 10/149 CD dirt fast
Kingsbarns 48:40 Breezing 33/149 CD dirt fast

Mage 1.16:80 Breezing 1/1 CD dirt fast
Major Dude 48.40 Breezing 33/149 CD dirt fast

Skinner 1.14:00 Handily 2/2 SA dirt fast
Tapit Trice 48:20 Breezing 20/149 CD dirt fast
Verifying 59.40 Breezing 2/54 CD dirt fast


Friday
Lord Miles 1.02:41 Breezing 12/13 GP dirt fast
Practical Move 59:60 Handily 2/32 SA dirt fast

Reincarnate 46:40 Handily 1/31 SA dirt fast


Thursday

Raise Cain 49:00 Breezing 13/51 KEE dirt fast
Two Phil's 59:00 Breezing 1/16 HAW dirt fast


Wednesday
Continuar 50:00 Breezing 30/40 CD dirt fast
Derma Sotogake 1:01.40 Breezing 4/7 CD dirt fast

Mandarin Hero 1.04:60 Handily 9/10 SA dirt fast
Sun Thunder 48.60 Breezing 10/40 CD dirt fast


Skinnner Confirmed, Gets New Rider for Derby

Posted by D. Downey on April 27 at 2:00 ET

Juan Hernandez has been named to ride Skinner in the Kentucky Derby instead of his regular jockey, Victor Espinoza. Trainer John Shirreffs told DRF's Steve Andersen, "We thought a change would maybe shake things up a little bit. Maybe Skinner was used to the way Victor was riding him. It might help to have a different rider."


Wild on Ice Euthanized

Posted by D. Downey on April 27 at 9:30 a.m. ET - updated 11:25 a.m./12:29 p.m. ET

Sunland Derby winner Wild On Ice was euthanized today after sustaining a left hind leg injury following a workout early this morning at Churchill Downs. The Texas-bred gelding breezed five furlongs and was pulled up while galloping out.  Wild On Ice, owned by Frank Sumpter, was evaluated at the Churchill Downs Equine Medical Center and transported to Lexington to an equine surgical facility for further evaluation. Trainer Joel Marr and jockey Ken Tohill, who was aboard for the breeze, also went to Lexington. Wild On Ice made the Derby field after winning the Sunland Derby at 35-1 odds.


"Wild On Ice gave us so many great moments," Sumpter said. "He'll forever be remembered. It's a sad situation. My heart goes out to the team, trainer Joel Marr and everyone who helped us get to this point. These horses give us so many great moments in life and our team puts in so many hours taking care of the horses. He had a fracture in his hind leg and it was determined he couldn't be saved. Wild On Ice had so much heart."

Churchill Opens Gate to Public for Training

Posted by D. Downey on April 25, 2023 at 4:20 p.m. ET

Starting Thursday and continuing through Wednesday, May 3, Churchill Downs will be open for free daily from 7:00 to 10:00 a.m. so guests can watch Thoroughbreds train. Horses train on Churchill Downs’ main track daily from 5:15-10:00 a.m. There is an exclusive training window only for Derby and Oaks participants from 7:30-7:45 a.m. following the 7-7:30 a.m. renovation break. Those horses are identified by saddle towels, yellow for Derby horses and for Oaks fillies. Guests are asked to park in the orange lot and use the Paddock entrance.


Castellano Moves to Mage

Posted by D. Downey on April 25, 2023 at 7:53 a.m. ET

Late Monday night Javier Castellano was named to ride Florida Derby runner-up Mage in the Kentucky Derby. Castellano was previously listed to ride Ben Colebrook trainee Raise Cain, and that one's participation in the Derby is npow the subject of speculation. Mage arrived at Churchill Downs from south Florida yesterday and was on the track this morning.


Disarm Breezes at Churchill Downs

Posted by D. Downey on April 24, 2023 at 12:55 p.m. ET

Two Mondays before the 2023 Kentucky Derby, Disarm breezed five furlongs in 1:00 with Joel Rosario aboard for trainer Steve Asmussen. It was his first work since finishing third in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes nine days earlier, boosting his total Derby points to 46, just enough to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

Disarm, a son of the former Asmussen-trained Champion Gun Runner, began about one length behind his stablemate Gigante and outran him to the wire before a long gallop-out.


Blazing Sevens Out of Derby

Posted by D. Downey April 23, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET

Trainer Chad Brown announced today Blazing Sevens will bypass the Kentucky Derby and be pointed to the Preakness. Jace's Road was moved into the body of the Derby field as a result. The next horse in line should another defection occur is Skinner, followed by Cyclone Mischief.


Three Potential Derby Horses Work Sunday
Posted by D. Downey April 23, 2023 at 12:12 p.m. ET - Updated 12:45 p.m. ET

One horse in the Kentucky Derby field worked at Churchill Downs on Sunday along with one that could draw in at Churchill and one at Santa Anita.

Rocket Can cruised five furlongs in 1:01.00 with blinkers added for this work and for the Kentucky Derby. He broke off six lengths behind stablemate Game Warden and completed early fractions of 12.20 and 36.60 with regular exercise rider Guelser Cardona in the saddle.

“It was a nice steady work,” trainer Bill Mott said. “He worked fast last week and I was just looking for a good, steady work this week. He galloped out well and stayed within himself. It maybe was a little bit of a wide trip in the Arkansas Derby (Mott said of Rocket Can's fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby). The one thing that race told me is he still has more to give in the tank."

Florida Derby third-place finisher Cyclone Mischief, who needs three defections to make the Derby, completed five furlongs in 1:01.00 with exercise rider Tammy Fox in the saddle at Churchill Downs.

“I hope we can get him in the Derby,” trainer Dale Romans said. “I thought he worked great this morning.”

Skinner, who needs two defections to make the Derby field, worked at Santa Anita. He ran six furlongs in 1:13.40, his first workout since a close third in the Santa Anita Derby on April 8.

Forte, who's looking like the Derby favorite, had an easy morning in Barn 39 where he walked the shedrow, per trainer Todd Pletcher's typical regimen following a workout two days earlier. This is the first time trainer Pletcher has been stabled in Barn 39 where 1988 Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors resided.

Thirteen Derby contenders with guaranteed spots in the Derby gate are on the grounds at Churchill Downs. Two more arrivals are expected Monday. Blazing Sevens is scheduled to be vanned from Keeneland, and Mage is set to arrive via van from Gulfstream Park.


Rain Slows Training at Churchill Downs
Posted by D. Downey April 22, 2023 at 1129 a.m. ET - Updated 12:25 p.m. ET

Saturday at Santa Anita, Reincarnate worked five furlongs in 1.01:00. He's one of two Kentucky Derby contenders trained by Tim Yakteen for whom Practical Move blazed four furlongs on 47.00 Friday at the track. In Florida, Mage breezed six furlongs in 1:14.78 at Gulfstream Park.

Compared to Friday, Saturday morning at Churchill Downs was quiet, with only a handful of workouts on a muddy track after overnight rain, according to Equibase. Only four Kentucky Derby contenders trained during their reserved space from 7:30 to 7:45. Disarm and Rocket Can galloped about 1 1/2 times around the one-mile oval; and Angel of Empire Hit Show jogged about a mile one day after they breezed. On Friday six contenders recorded published workouts at the track: Angel of Empire (six furlongs, 1:13.40); Forte (five in 1:02); Hit Show (five in 1:01); Tapit Trice (four in 48.60); Verifying (five in 1:01); and number 21 on the contenders list Jace's Road (six in 1.13:40). Blazing Sevens breezed at Keeneland (four in 48.60) and Lord Miles worked at Gulfstream Park (four in 47.00).

Rocket Can is scheduled to breeze Sunday. Next workouts for Confidence Game (last breezed April 14) and Sun Thunder (fourth in the Blue Grass April 8) are not publicly known.


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First Mission Wins Lexington as Derby Road Ends
Sent off as the 2-1 favorite, First Mission got the job done when he edged by the pacesetting Arabian Lion late in the short stretch at Keeneland to win the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3). Disarm finished third and garnered six Kentucky Derby points, just enough to qualify him for the Run for the Roses and pushing Jace's Road out of the Derby field, at least for now. Dennington and Demolition Duke finished fourth and fifth. First Mission earned his first 20 Derby points, not enough to make the first Saturday in May.


Winning trainer: Brad Cox
Winning jockey: Luis Saez
Winning owner: Godolphin
Winning breeder: Godolphin
By Street Sense out of Elude, by Medaglia d'Oro

Equibase CHART


Tapit Trice Nails Verifying Late in Blue Grass
After his second shaky start in as many races, Tapit Trice overcame adversity to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. He overtook Verifying, who was always prominent, in the final strides to prevail by a neck in the 1 1/8-mile race timed in 1:50.00. Blazing Sevens was third, Sun Thunder fourth and Raise Cain fifth in the 11-horse field. Tapit Trice broke slowly from post 1, and a key moment occurred when he was guided to the outside entering the first turn, giving him running room. In his prior start Tapit Trice appeared out of contention, but he flew by horses in the stretch to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

The top five finishers in the Blue Grass may all have enough points to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. In order of finish: Tapit Trice pushed his points total to 150; Verifying now has 54, enough to make the starting gate; Blazing Sevens might have enough with 46; Sun Thunder would also be in with 54; and Raise Cain is Derby-bound with 64 points.

Winning owner: Whisperhill Farm and Gainesway Stables
Winning trainer: Todd Pletcher
Winning jockey: Luis Saez
Winning breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds (KY)

By Tapit out of Danzatrice, by Dunkirk

Equibase CHART


Practical Move Holds Off Mandarin Hero at Santa Anita
Practical Move, favored at even-money odds, barely survived a late charge by Japanese import Mandarin Hero to win the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1) in 1:48.69. After laying in third and then second place through the first six furlongs, Practical Move took command and stayed on to prevail by a nose. Skinner was third, National Treasure fourth and pacesetter One in Vermillion fifth. One of the pre-race favorites, Geaux Rocket Ride, was scratched due to a fever according to his stable.

Practical Move's 100 Derby points moved his total to 160. Mandarin Hero was making his first U. S start, and he got 40 points. Skinner has 45. National Treasure picked up his first 20 points, and One in Vermillion got 10 to make his total 15.

Winning owner: Leslie A. Amestoy, Pierre Jean Amestoy, Jr. and Roger K. Beasley
Winning trainer: Tim Yakteen
Winning jockey: Ramon Vazquez
Winning breeder: Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners (KY)

By Practical Joke out of Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex

Equibase CHART


Wood Memorial Shocker Goes to Lord Miles
You could throw a blanket over the three of them at the finish line of the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct in New York, but it was 59-1 longshot and homebred Lord Miles who prevailed and unexpectedly thrown into the Kentucky Derby picture. Like Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner Tapit Trice, Lord Miles' last race was the Tampa Bay Derby, where he finished fifth, beaten 5 3/4 lengths. In tight with Lord Miles at the wire were favored Hit Show and maiden Dreamlike, in that order. Fourth and fifth were early pacesetter Arctic Arrogance and Classic Catch.

Kentucky Derby points: Lord Miles 105 (100 for the Wood Memorial and 5 for the Tampa Bay Derby); Hit Show 60; Dreamlike his first 30 points; Arctic Arrogance 36; Classic Catch his first 10 points.

Winning owner: Vegso Racing Stable
Winning trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Winning jockey: Paco Lopez
Winning breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)

By Curlin out of Lady Esme, by Come A Callin

Equibase CHART


Forte Runs Down Mage in Florida Derby
Forte, sent off at 3-10, didn't look like a sure thing for most of the race as he was near the back of the pack in the early going. Showing class and determination, Forte, the presumptive Kentucky Derby favorite, got it done catching Mage in the final jumps to win the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby by one length in 1:49.37. The time is almost one second slower than originally reported by Gulfstream Park. Cyclone Mischief was third, Mr. Ripple fourth and pacesetter (23.57, 46.71, 1:10.63) Fort Bragg fifth. Derby points 100-40-30-20-10. The second-place points push Mage to 50 total in the Kentucky Derby points race, probably enough to get him in.

NOTE: This story was revised to change the final time, originally reported by Gulfstream Park as 1:48.51. It was corrected Sunday evening.


Winning connections
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Owner: Repole Stable and St Elias Stable
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
By Violence out of Queen Caroline, by Blame

Equibase CHART


Angel of Empire Dominates Arkansas Derby From Mid-Pack
Coming from off the pace and three wide, Angel of Empire dusted the Arkansas Derby field by 4 1/4 lengths. King Russell was up late for second place at 58-1 after looking great in the post parade. Reincarnate was third, favored Rocket Can fourth, and longshot Airtime fifth. The second-through-fifth runners were within one length of each other at the finish. Winning time for the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby was 1:49.68.


Winning connections
Trainer: Brad Cox (his second straight Arkansas Derby)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & BlackDiamond Equine Corp (PA)
By Classic Empire out of Armony's Angel, by To Honor and Serve

Equibase CHART


Overview, construction and history of The Downey Profile was updated March 14. Among many other things, involved in all that is a brief history of changes in how prep races impact the Kentucky Derby along with the rise and fall of Dual Qualifiers as a way to pick winners. Click here for this interesting read.


Late 2023 Triple Crown Nominations


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Churchill Downs Revises Derby Points Schedule


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Dec. 3, 2022 Announcement


Friends and Colleagues: Today I am announcing The Downey Profile is returning for the 2023 Kentucky Derby. We will continue coverage as we did in 2021 and 2022, a scaled-back version from years before.


As I keep my hand in this great race and Kentucky spectacle, this will be my 21st Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile.


To TDP subscribers, I cannot thank you enough for your friendly, supportive relationship with me over the years.

Hope everyone has a great holiday
 and 2023, and God bless.
--Dick Downey, Dec. 3, 2022


HOW WE'VE FARED IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY


In 2022, for the second consecutive year, the winner was not in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor was he a Profile Buster. Rich

Strike won at 80-1 odds. Dick's Picks were:

1 ZANDON (third at 6-1)
2 CROWN PRIDE
(contested fast pace, 13th at 17-1)
3 TAIBA (12th at 5-1)
4 EPICENTER (second at 4-1)
5 MESSIER (15th at 7-1)
6 WHITE ABARRIO (16th at 15-1)


In 2021, the Kentucky Derby winner was neither in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor a Profile Buster for the first time since 2009. Downey had him in  the fifth slot among six selections.

1. HOT ROD CHARLIE (third at 5-1)
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (fourth at 5-2)
3. ROCK YOUR WORLD (seventeenth at 9-2)

KING FURY -SCRATCHED

4. KNOWN AGENDA (ninth at 9-1))
5. MEDINA SPIRIT (first at 12-1)*

6. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (tenth at 10-1)

*Disqualified later: medication infraction

HARD TO LEAVE OUT

MIDNIGHT BOURBON (sixth at 13-1)
LONGSHOTS I LIKE MOST (in post position order)

MANDALOUN (second at 28-1)**
O BESOS (fifth at 41-1)

**Moved up to first after Medina Spirit DQ


In 2020, Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page failed to win for the first time in seven years. Three of Downey's four picks finished in the top four, including winner Authentic. The top two finishers were among The Downey

Profile's Top 4 rankings, as was fourth finisher Honor A. P.


1. TIZ THE LAW (second)
2. HONOR A. P. (fourth)
 
THOUSAND WORDS (SCR)
3. Ny TRAFFIC (eighth)
4. AUTHENTIC (first)


Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won  the Kentucky Derby in 2019.  It was the sixth straight year his top pick won, and Maximum Security was among The Downey Profile's Top 4 horses, as was Tacitus. Four of Downey's top five picks finished in the top five.


1. MAXIMUM SECURITY (first - DQ'd by stewards to 17th)
2. TACITUS (fourth, moved up to third)
3. IMPROBABLE (fifth, moved up to fourth
4. VEKOMA (thirteenth, moved up to twelfth)
5. CODE OF HONOR (third, moved up to second)


Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won the Kentucky Derby for the fifth straight year in 2018. Justify was among The Downey Profile Top 4 horses, as were second and third finishers Good Magic and Audible.

The final Kentucky Derby workout by Justify was impressive, and that helped lead Downey to pick him right on top. Good Magic was in Downey's second spot for the cold exacta.


1. JUSTIFY (first)
2. GOOD MAGIC (second)
3. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
4. HOFBURG (seventh)
5. AUDIBLE (third)
6. BOLT D'ORO (twelfth)


Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for his Kentucky Derby subscribers for the fourth straight year in 2017.

Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4. Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.


1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)


Downey's selections on the Subscription Page  for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were


1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)


Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were


1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)


Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were


1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)



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