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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®
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SUBSCRIBER NOTICE: Kentucky Derby/Preakness/Belmont Subscribers: The Belmont Stakes Subscription Page will open Thursday. Derby Trail Subscribers: The Looking Good page is now complete through the running of the Kentucky Derby.  The Derby Trail Subscription is concluded except we are still maintaining the Worth Watching and Just In Case pages.

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To read about The Downey Profile, click here. The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013

 

Probable and Possible Belmont Stakes Horses

 

On Twitter: @DowneyProfile

Matt "Seen Them All" Winn to Hall of Fame

All Daily Preakness Updates

Cloud Computing Edges Classic Empire

No Mo Dough Cashes in Sir Barton

Recruiting Ready Best in Chick Lang

Always Dreaming Triumphant

Derby Viewership Best Since 1989

How Downey and Johnson Each Picked the Kentucky Derby Winner

Churchill Downs Handle Up

Arklow Springs American Turf Upset

Wild Shot Romps in Pat Day Mile

Baffert's Abel Tasman Upsets Kentucky Oaks at 9-1

Epicharis to Belmont Stakes

Tuesday: Always Dreaming Behaves Better

Monday: Derby Works Completed at Churchill Downs

Sunday: Three Workouts Down and Four to Go

J Boys Echo, Girvin Complete Final Derby Workouts

Espinoza's Sidelong Looks at Gormley, Royal Mo

Barrage of Kentucky Derby Workers Unleashed

Twisted Tom Turns Back O Dionysus in Tesio

Multiplier Catches Hedge Fund in Illinois Derby

Classic Empire Rebounds in Arkansas Derby

Lexington Upset by Senior Investment

Irish War Cry Rebounds in Wood

Irap Breaks Maiden in Blue Grass

Gormley Regains Form in SA Derby

Trainer Bonuses Offered Preakness Weekend

Always Dreaming Best in Florida Derby

Louisiana Derby Plan Gels for Girvin

Hence Comes from Clouds at Sunland

UAE Derby: Thunder Snow > Epicharis

Fast and Accurate Shocks in Spiral

Pletcher Strikes Again at Oaklawn

Private Terms: O Dionysus Nosed Out

San Felipe: Ups and Downs of Racing

Tapwrit Storms Home in Tampa

Gunnevera Blasts Home in FOY

Gotham: J Boys Echo Upsets El Areeb

Mine That Bird Derby Goes to Conquest Mo Money
Irap Still A Maiden

Girvin Emerges in Risen Star

Triple Crown Wrap: How We Performed in 2016
For Previous Years, Please Scroll Down

2017 Early Triple Crown Nominations

 

Continue to All Workouts

Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted

May 23
Arklow, four in 50:80 Breezing firm turf 5/9 at CD
Bound for Nowhere, five in 1.02:60 Breezing firm turf 2/2 at KEE
Cowboy Culture, four in 50:80 firm turf 5/9 at CD
Local Hero, five in 1.03:55 Breezing training track 4/13 at BEL
McCraken, four in 49:80 Breezing 25/51 at CD
Syndergaard, four in 49:95 Breezing training track 1/33 at BEL
Ticonderoga, four in 49:16 Breezing 5/44 at SAR
Wild Shot, four in 49:40 Breezing 21/54 at KEE

May 22
Bronze Age, six in 1.17:00 Handily 11/11 at SA
Eastport, four in 49:45 Breezing 9/28 at BEL
Fire for Effect, five in 1.01:60 Breezing 8/20 at CD
Parlor, five in 1.00:20 Breezing 2/20 at CD
Shamsaan, four in 49:40 Breezing 1/1 at GTC
Warrior's Club, four in 49:20 Breezing 22/61 at CD

May 21
Basha, four in 48:87 Breezing firm turf 2/2 at GP
Bronson, four in 50:40 Breezing 5/14 at PBD
Dilettante, four in 49:80 Breezing sloppy track 9/18 at CD
Midnight Pleasure, five in 59:40 Handily 1/50 at SA
No Dozing, four in 49.60 Breezing synthetic track 5/11 at FAI
Souper Tapit, five in 1.01:00 Breezing synthetic track 19/69 at WO
State of Honor, five in 1.01:00 Breezing synthetic track 19/69 at WO

May 20
Bonus Points, four in 49:74 Breezing dirt training 18/34  at SAR
Chief Know It All, five in 1.01:20 Breezing 2/7 at KEE
Classic Rock, four in 50:66 Breezing 55/68 at GP
Conquest Farenheit, four in 49:20 Handily 23/46 at SLR
Fast and Accurate, four in 50:00 Breezing good track 14/26 at CD
Gormley, four in 50:00 Handily 37/52 at SA
Klimt, four in 48:60 Handily 10/26 at LA
Sonneteer, four in 50:40 Handily 49/52 at SA
Tapwrit, four in 50:25 Breezing dirt training 14/41 at BEL
You're to Blame, four in 49:38 Breezing 9/34 at SAR

May 19
Ann Arbor Eddie, three in 35:60 Handily 3/20 at SA
Bitumen, four in 49:96 Breezing 15/39 at CD
Guest Suite, four in 1.01:40 Breezing 5/18 at CD
Irap, five in 59:80 Handily 9/51 at SA
Milton Freewater, six in 1.12:60 Handily 1/20 at SA
Rapid Dial, four in 48:20 Breezing 7/60 at CD
Silver Dust, four in 47:60 Breezing 3/60 at CD
Takaful, four in 49:96 Breezing dirt training 15/39 at BEL

May 18
Battle of Midway, four in 49:40 Handily 37/56 at SA
Big Gray Rocket, three in 37:80 Handily 15/20 at LA
Good Samaritan, four in 51:60 Breezing 32/34 at SAR

May 17
Fire for Effect, five in 1.02:20 Breezing 22/35 at CD

May 16
Bound for Nowhere, four in 48:00 Breezing firm turf 2/6 at KEE
Cowboy Culture, four in 48:00 Breezing four firm turf 2/4 at CD
Ticonderoga, four in 49:63 Breezing training track 28/53 at SAR

May 15
Bronze Age, three in 36:20 Handily 3/17 at SA
Eastport, four in 49:73 Breezing 44/60 at BEL
Hence, four in 51:60 Breezing 23/23 at CD
Lookin at Lee, four in 51:20 Breezing 22/23 at CD
Monaco, four in 50:66 Breezing training track 45/63 at BEL
Syndergaard, four in 49:92 Breezing training track 23/63 at BEL
The Money Monster, four in 49:35 Breezing 6/19 at sAR
Warrior's Club, four in 48:60 Breezing 9/23 at CD
West Coast, three in 36:00 Handily 2/17 at SA

May 14
Chief Know It All, four in 49:00 Breezing 12/32 at KEE
Dilettante, four in 49:00 Breezing 27/59 at CD
Multiplier, five in 1.00:80 Breezing 8/20 at KEE
Petrov, four in 48:80 Breezing 24/59 at CD
Resiliency, four in 50:00 Breezing 50/59 at CD
Rowdy the Warrior, four in 49:00 Breezing 27/59 at CD
Senior Investment, five in 1.02:00 Breezing 15/20 at KEE
Society Beau, four in 48:00 Breezing 10/59 at CD
Souper Tapit, five in 58:20 Breezing synthetic track 2/65 at WO

May 13
Classic Rock, four in 46:75 Breezing 3/53 at GP
Cloud Computing, four in 48:85 Handily training track 2/32 at BEL
Klimt, four in 49:00 Breezing 19/34 at LA
Term of Art, six in 1.13:80 Handily 2/6 at SA
Three Rules, four in 49:76 Breezing 39/53 at GP

May 12
Conquest Mo Money, four in 48.40 (11/34) at PM

May 11
O Dionysus, five in 1.03:00 Breezing 8/13 at LRL
True Timber, four in 48:89 Breezing training track 5/33 at BEL

May 10
Fire for Effect, four in  51:60 Breezing 65/66 at CD
Midnight Pleasure, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 14/42 at SA

May 9
Guest Suite, five in 1.01:20 Breezing 11/44 at CD

May 8
American Anthem, five in 59:20 Handily 1/11 at SA
Bronze Age, five in 59:20 Handily 1/11 at SA
Eastport, four in 50:09 Breezing 48/59 at BEL
Hollywood Handsome, four in 48:00 Breezing 2/24 at CD
Impressive Edge, five in 47:80 Breezing 1/24 at CD
Multiplier, four in 50:60 Breezing 37/43 at KEE
Rowdy the Warrior, five in 1.01:60 Breezing 10/24 at CD
Senior Investment, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 1/23 at KEE
Society Beau, five in 1.02:20 Breezing 15/24 at CD
West Coast, six in 1.11:60 Handily 1/6 at SA

May 7
Chief Know It All, four in 48:60 Breezing 7/40 at KEE
Cloud Computing, five in 1.00:20 Breezing good training track 1/23 at BEL
Master Plan, four in 48:20 Breezing 1/21 at CD
Resiliency, five in 1.01:80 Breezing 2/7 at CD
Royal Mo, five in 1.05:00 Breezing 7/7 at CD
Timeline, four in 49:56 Breezing 24/50 at BEL
Three Rules, five in 58:53 Breezing 1/6 at GP

Continue to All Workouts

Downey Profile subscribers to the Kentucky Derby service have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, Downey's in-depth post-race analyses of the Kentucky Derby prep races starting with the Risen Star Stakes, special NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!

Our Derby Trail Subscription Service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from trainers, jockeys and owners. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3)  We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

--Dick Downey

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were:
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)

For the first time, Downey put together a superfecta part wheel for subscribers. The cost for a $1 ticket was $88, and we were fortunate enough to see that bet hit and pay $542.10.

The Commish picked:
1. EXAGGERATOR (second)
2. NYQUIST (first)
3. MY MAN SAM (eleventh)
4. WHITMORE (nineteenth)
5. MO TOM (eighth)

The Commish stuck to his guns with Exaggerator in the Preakness, and he won the race.

 

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)

The Commish picked:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FIRING LINE (second)
4. FROSTED (fourth)
5. CARPE DIEM (tenth)

The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. In 2017, the site went live before the Feb. 25 Risen Star Stakes.

We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.

Thanks for everything, and it's good see you again.

--By Dick Downey

 

MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page is an introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a variety of factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.



A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in A workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it. In addition, Downey's top 5 selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five.

In 2016, Nyquist, a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.



Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness + Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.



A Little About Us and Our Products

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, a sole proprietorship. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.

While the website has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.

Our Derby Trail Subscription was offered in 2015 and did well, and it's back in 2017. That information was offered free in 2016 because illness in Downey's family shortened our coverage. This service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from and about trainers, jockeys, owners and the horses. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

 

The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile © 2003-2017

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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