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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®
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SUBSCRIBER NOTICE: Derby Trail Subscription:  Dick's Picks will be on the Spiral Stakes, and The Commish will try to keep his streak going in the Sunland Derby. Updates are made daily.  Kentucky Derby Subscription: Segment 4 NOTES about the Rebel Stakes are posted.

In 2017 we have two Subscription Pages, the same format used in 2015: (1) The tried and true Kentucky Derby Subscription, which include the Preakness and Belmont Stakes at no extra charge, and (2) The Derby Trail Subscription Page. For fuller descriptions, please click either of the two links immediately below.

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To read about The Downey Profile, click here. The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013.
 

Spiral Stakes
1. Blueridge Traveler 12-1, 2. Soglio 6-1, 3. Fast and Accurate 15-1, 4. Convict Pike 8-1,
5. Colonel Samsen 15-1, 6. Giant Payday 8-1, 7. Shiraz 20-1, 8. Kitten's Cat 4-1,
9. Parlor 5-1, 10. Bronson 10-1, 11. King and His Court 5-1, 12. En Hanse 15-1

Sunland Derby
1. Shareholder Value 2. Hedge Fund 3. Bronze Age 4. Oxford Lane 5. Irap 6. Dilettante
7. Kimbear 8. Wine N Divine 9. Hence 10. Balandeen 11. Total Tap 12. Conquest Mo Money

UAE Derby Favorite Thunder Snow Faces Wide Draw
But Bin Suroor Expects Big Things

 

On Twitter: @DowneyProfile

Kentucky Derby Futures as of March 22

Six Late Nominated to Triple Crown

Twenty-Five Nominated to Florida Derby - w/ PPs

Kitten's Cat Tepid Spiral Favorite

Blood-Horse: Classic Empire Works at Ocala

Kentucky Derby Futures

Wednesday UAE Derby Track Notes

Tuesday UAE Derby Track Notes

McCraken Strong Work Deemed Maintenance

Classic Empire Another Story

Trainers Seek Repeat in Sunland Derby

Early UAE Derby Odds w/ Entry Chart

Howard Still High on Guest Suite

Fourteen Considered for Spiral

Monday UAE Derby Notes

Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard

Pletcher Strikes Again at Oaklawn

Conquest Farenheit Makes It Look Easy

Rebel Runners Doing Well Sunday

Kentucky Derby Subscribers: Segment 4 NOTES about the Rebel Stakes are posted.

Private Terms: O Dionysus Nosed Out by Twisted Tom

Brown Narrows Down Practical Joke's Future

Pletcher Workers at Palm Beach Downs

Girvin Works at Fair Grounds Under Napravnik

Sano Pronounces Gunnevera '100 Percent'

El Areeb Remains on Derby Trail
Wood Memorial Eyed

Dutrow Mulls Next Spot for Mo Town

Free Triple Crown PPs from Brisnet

Mastery Out of Surgery, at Baffert Barn

Local Hero, Senior Investment Work Toward La Derby

Mastery Looks Comfortable, Is Eating
More About Condylar Fracture

Pletcher: All Options Open for Tapwrit
Probably Won't Follow Destin Route

BH.com Report: Classic Empire Finally Works

San Felipe: The Ups and Downs of Racing

Tapwrit Storms Home in Tampa

Battalion Runner Keeps Working

Mo Town Looking for Comeback Route

Gunnevera Blasts Home

J Boys Echo Upsets El Areeb

It's Your Nickel Puts Away Battaglia Field

Ticonderoga Powers Home in Palm Beach

Mine That Bird Derby Goes to Conquest Mo Money
Irap Still A Maiden

Girvin Emerges

Wow: 146 Nominated to Toyota Blue Grass

Triple Crown Wrap: How We Performed in 2016
For Previous Years, Please Scroll Down

The Jockey Club 2016 Experimental Free Handicap

Future Wager Pool History 2009 - Present

2017 Early Triple Crown Nominations

How to Nominate to the Triple Crown Series

Kentucky Derby 143 Poster

 

Continue to All Workouts

Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted

March 22
Classic Empire, five in 1.01:40 Breezing 1/1 at WND
Miggsy, four in 50:42 Breezing 4/8 at AQU

March 21
Balandeen, four in 48:40 Breezing 5/16 at OP
Gormley, four in 48:80 Handily 23/42 at SA
Perro Rojo, four in 49:00 Breezing 9/23 at PMM
The Money Monster, four in 48:00 Breezing 1/13 at PAY
West Coast, five in 58:80 Handily 1/34 at SA

March 20
Colonel Samsen, five in 1.00:60 Handily 5/25 at SA
Guest Suite, five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/22 at FG
It's Your Nickel, four in 47:40 Breezing 1/9 at KEE
Local Hero, six in 1.12:40 Breezing 1/2 at FG
McCracken, five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/7 at KEE
Resiliency, five in 1.01:40 Breezing 7/22 at FG
Senior Investment, five in 1.00:60 Breezing 4/22 atFG
Society Beau, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 2/22 at FG

March 19
Arklow, four in 47:40 Breezing 1/63 at FG
Battle of Midway, four in 47:60 Handily 2/31 at SA
Classic Rock, five in 1.02:75 Breezing 21/33 at GP
Excitations, four in 49:20 Breezing 16/63 at FG
Fire for Effect, four in 48:87 Breezing 5/52 at GP
Hemsworth, four in 51:45 Breezing 40/44 at PMM
Irish Freedom, four in 47:60 Handily 3/78 at SA
Unique Bella, six in 1.11:20 Handily 1/9 at SA

March 18
Action Everyday, four in 49:49 Breezing training track 28/85 at BEL
Alway Dreaming, four in 48:00 Breezing 1/20 at PBD
Battalion Runner, five in 1.01:20 Breezing 3/8 at PBD
Bitumen, four in 48:10 Breezing 3/61 at PMM
Bonus Points, four in 49:49 Breezing training track 28/85 at BEL
Bronze Age, five in 1.00:40 Handily 7/38 at SA
California Diamond, five in 1.00:00 Handily 3/10 at SLR
Chief Know It All, four in 47:80 Breezing 4/57 at OP
Cloud Computing, four in 49:22 Breezing training track 26/85 at BEL
Cool Arrow, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 8/54 at FG
Eastport, four in 50:02 Breezing 39/65 at GP
Girvin, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 8/54 at FG
Gunnevera, five in 1.04:60 Breezing 20/22 at GPW
Hence, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 8/38 at OP
J Boys Echo, four in 52:51 Breezing 65/65 at GP
Monaco, four in 49:80 Breezing 8/20 at PBD
One Liner, four in 50.20 Breezing 12/20 at PBD
Patch, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 1/8 at PBD
Practical Joke, four in 48:75 Breezing 9/61 at PMM
Shareholder Value, four in 48:20 Breezing 5/85 at FG
Talk Logistics, four in 1.00:75 Breezing 7/37 at PMM
Theory, four in 48:00 Breezing 1/20 at PBD
Ticonderoga, four in 48:75 Breezing 9/61 at PMM
Timeline, four in 48:75 Breezing 9/61 at PMM
Woodrow, four in 50:11 Breezing 46/65 at GP

March 17
Bronson, four in 49:20 Breezing 3/8 at PBD
Dilettante, five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/8 at OP
El Areeb, four in 51:40 Breezing 22/28 at LRL
Rockin Rudy, six in 1.12:40 Handily 2/8 at SA
So Conflated, four in 48:40 Handily 3/6 at SA
Syndergaard, four in 48:80 Breezing 1/8 at PBD

March 16
Conquest Farenheit, three in 37:40 Handily 1/2 at SLR
Mo Town, six in 1.13:24 Breezing 1/1 at GP

March 15
Lookin at Lee, four in 50:00 Breezing 14/26 at OP
Society Beau, five in 1.02:60 Breezing 17/20 at FG

March 14
Guest Suite, five in 1.00:60 Breezing 1/10 at FG
Silver Bullion, three in 35:60 Breezing 2/3 at OP

March 13
Classic Rock, four in 48:44 Breezing 1/9 at GP
Local Hero, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 1/20 at FG
Midnight Pleasure, five in 1.02:00 Handily 11/14 at SA
Senior Investment, four in 48:60 Breezing 6/45 at FG

March 12
Bronze Age, five in 59:00 Handily 1/35 at SA
Classic Empire, four in 48:95 Breezing 3/27 at PMM
Master Plan, five in 1.02:00 Breezing 3/4 at PBD

March 11
American Anthem, six in 1.11:60 Handily 1/15 at SA
Arklow, five in 1.01:40 Breezing 14/47 at FG
Battalion Runner, six in 1.13:80 Breezing 1/3 PBD
Bitumen, four in 48:75 Breezing 16/75 at PMM
California Diamond, five in 1.01:40 Handily 9/18 at SLR
Cool Arrow, four in 49:00 Breezing 19/86 at FG
Girvin, four in 49:00 Breezing 19/86 at FG
Hence, five in 1.02:00 Breezing 17/35 at OP
Malagacy, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 1/4 at PBD
McCraken, four in 50:20 Breezing 62/75 at PMM
Monaco, four in 49:20 Breezing 3/17 at PBD
Patch, five in  1.02:00 2/4 at PBD
Royal Mo, six in 1.13:40 Handily 7/15 at SA
Shareholder Value, four in 48:80 Breezing 14/86 at FG
Souper Tapit, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 4/47 at FG
Theory, five in 1.02:60 Breezing 3/4 at SA
Unique Bella, 47:00 Handily 1/2 at SA
Untrapped, five in 1:01.00 Breezing (3/37) at OP


Continue to All Workouts

Downey Profile subscribers to the Kentucky Derby service have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, Downey's in-depth post-race analyses of the Kentucky Derby prep races starting with the Risen Star Stakes, special NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!

Our Derby Trail Subscription Service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from trainers, jockeys and owners. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3)  We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

--Dick Downey

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were:
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)

For the first time, Downey put together a superfecta part wheel for subscribers. The cost for a $1 ticket was $88, and we were fortunate enough to see that bet hit and pay $542.10.

The Commish picked:
1. EXAGGERATOR (second)
2. NYQUIST (first)
3. MY MAN SAM (eleventh)
4. WHITMORE (nineteenth)
5. MO TOM (eighth)

The Commish stuck to his guns with Exaggerator in the Preakness, and he won the race.

 

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)

The Commish picked:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FIRING LINE (second)
4. FROSTED (fourth)
5. CARPE DIEM (tenth)

The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. In 2017, the site went live before the Feb. 25 Risen Star Stakes.

We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.

Thanks for everything, and it's good see you again.

--By Dick Downey

 

MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page is an introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a variety of factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.



A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in A workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it. In addition, Downey's top 5 selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five.

In 2016, Nyquist, a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.



Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness + Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.



A Little About Us and Our Products

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, a sole proprietorship. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.

While the website has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.

Our Derby Trail Subscription was offered in 2015 and did well, and it's back in 2017. That information was offered free in 2016 because illness in Downey's family shortened our coverage. This service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from and about trainers, jockeys, owners and the horses. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

 

 

The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile © 2003-2017

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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