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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®
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SUBSCRIBER NOTICE: Kentucky Derby/Preakness/Belmont Subscribers: Segment 10 NOTES posted Sunday: More Workouts; Miscellany. With the defection of Battalion Runner, we have a NEW TOP 4 HORSE in The Downey Profile Rankings. Our Profile Busters Profile has been updated, and we have a NEW PROFILE BUSTER. Dick Downey has been in Louisville since Friday morning. Segment 9 NOTES about Friday's workouts were posted early Friday evening. Derby Trail Subscribers: Workouts on our Looking Good page now include every work this year. Also, please review last Friday's note about Girvin in the News and Commentary Section.

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Sunday: Three Workouts Down and Four to Go

Daily Derby Update: Sunday, April 30

~~~ April 30 Derby / Oaks Training Video ~~~

 

Live Derby/Oaks Training: 8:30-8:45 EDT Daily
On the Web    On Twitter    On Facebook

KENTUCKY DERBY & OAKS PPs FROM BRISNET

Battalion Runner, Malagacy Out of Derby
Lookin at Lee, Sonneteer Are In; Thunder Snow Confirmed

Lanerie to Lookin at Lee, Santana to Untrapped,
Hill to Fast and Accurate, Gaffalione to Patch

KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

KENTUCKY DERBY JOCKEYS

Alway Dreaming John Velazquez               McCraken Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Battle of Midway Flavien Prat   Patch Tyler Gaffalione
Classic Empire Julien Leparoux   Practical Joke Joel Rosario
Fast and Accurate Channing Hill   State of Honor Jose Lezcano
Girvin Mike Smith   Tapwrit Jose Ortiz
Gormley Victor Espinoza   Thunder Snow Christophe Soumillon
Gunnevera Javier Castellano   Untrapped Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Hence Florent Geroux   Lookin at Lee Corey Lanerie
Irap Mario Gutierrez   Sonneteer Kent Desormeaux
Irish War Cry Rajiv Maragh      
J Boys Echo Luis Saez   21 Royal Mo Gary Stevens

CHART: PROBABLE KENTUCKY ENTRIES W/ CONNECTIONS

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURES AS OF WEDNESDAY

On Twitter: @DowneyProfile

Aussie Point of View on Thunder Snow, Son of Helmet

J Boys Echo, Girvin Complete Final Derby Workouts

Espinoza Gets Sidelong Looks at Gormley, Royal Mo

Barrage of Kentucky Derby Workers Unleashed

Kentucky Derby/Preakness/Belmont Subscribers: Segment 10 NOTES posted Sunday: More Workouts; Miscellany. With the defection of Battalion Runner, we have a NEW TOP 4 HORSE in The Downey Profile Rankings. Our Profile Busters Profile has been updated, and we have a NEW PROFILE BUSTER. Dick Downey has been at Churchill Downs since Friday morning.

Louisville rain probs as of Sunday afternoon: Sunday night 100%, Monday morning 20%, Monday night 10%, Tuesday morning 0%, Tuesday night 20%, Wednesday 80%, Thursday 90%, Friday 20%, Saturday 20%

Derby / Oaks Training Videos
April 29 Derby/Oaks Training
April 28 Derby/Oaks Training: FF to 3:21
April 27 Derby/Oaks Training: FF to 1:55
April 26 Derby/Oaks Training: FF to 5:09
April 25 Derby/Oaks Training: FF to :50
April 24 Derby/Oaks Training: FF to 5:20

April 30 Workout Videos
Fast and Accurate

Irish War Cry
McCraken

April 29 Workout Videos
Gormley
J Boys Echo

April 28 Workout Videos
Always Dreaming
Battalion Runner
Classic Empire unavailable
Gunnevera
Irap
Patch and Tapwrit
Practical Joke
State of Honor

April 30 Gallop Videos
Irap jogs
Practical Joke sans blinkers
Sonneteer

April 29 Gallop Videos
Hence
McCraken

April 28 Gallop Videos
Hence
J Boys Echo

McCraken

April 27 Gallop Videos
Always Dreaming
Battalion Runner
Classic Empire
Gunnevera
J Boys Echo
McCraken
Patch
Practical Joke
State of Honor

April 26 Gallop Videos
Always Dreaming
Classic Empire
Gunnevera

April 25 Gallop Videos
Battalion Runner
Gunnevera
Practical Joke
State of Honor
Tapwrit

April 24 Gallop Videos
Classic Empire
State of Honor

Derby Worktab Heats Up at Churchill Downs
Not So Much at Keeneland

Quiz: Who Said It?
Reactions to Workouts at Churchill Downs

Jockeys Named for Hence, Fast and Accurate

Albarado to Miss Kentucky Derby

J Boys Echo Works at CD, Has Strong Backing

Twisted Tom Turns Back O Dionysus in Tesio

Multiplier Catches Hedge Fund in Illinois Derby

Wet Saturday Morning at Churchill Downs

Gormley, Battle of Midway Work at Santa Anita

Girvin Work Probable at Keeneland Monday

Irap, Practical Joke, Tapwrit Breeze at Keeneland

State of Honor Breezes; Classic Empire on Track
Girvin Shipped to Keeneland

Always Dreaming, Patch Work in Florida

Gunnevera Puts in Final Major Work for Kentucky Derby

Fast and Accurate: Hansen Picks Up Another Partner

BH.com: Battle of Midway Purchased

Lynn Whiting, Trainer of Lil E. Tee, Passes

McCraken Breezes; Conquest Mo Money Out of Derby

DRF reports that the Beyer Speed Figure for Hence in the Sunland Derby has been adjusted to 97 from its original 93.

Battle of Midway, Royal Mo Work

State of Honor Breezes; CD Barn Notes

Classic Empire Rebounds in Arkansas Derby

Lexington Upset by Senior Investment

Girvin, Fast and Accurate Fire Bullets

Always Dreaming Back to Work

Tuesday Churchill Downs Barn Notes

Top Blue Grass Runners Well

Irish War Cry to Stay Put Awhile

Shirreffs Horses Good on Sunday

Irish War Cry Rebounds in Wood Memorial

Irap Breaks Maiden in Toyota Blue Grass

Gormley Regains Form in Santa Anita Derby

Derby Trophy Arrives at Churchill Downs

Trainer Bonuses Offered Preakness Weekend

Derby Future Wager Pool 4 Results

Always Dreaming Proves Best in Florida Derby

Louisiana Derby Plan Gels for Girvin

Casse: Only the Late Innings Matter

Hence Comes from the Clouds at Sunland

Thunder Snow Edges Epicharis in UAE Derby

Fast and Accurate Shocks in Spiral Stakes

Six Late Nominated to Triple Crown

Pletcher Strikes Again at Oaklawn

Conquest Farenheit Makes It Look Easy

Private Terms: O Dionysus Nosed Out

Mastery Out of Surgery, at Baffert Barn

BH.com Report: Classic Empire Finally Works

San Felipe: The Ups and Downs of Racing

Tapwrit Storms Home in Tampa

Gunnevera Blasts Home in FOY

Gotham: J Boys Echo Upsets El Areeb

It's Your Nickel Puts Away Battaglia Field

Ticonderoga Powers Home in Palm Beach

Mine That Bird Derby Goes to Conquest Mo Money
Irap Still A Maiden

Girvin Emerges

Triple Crown Wrap: How We Performed in 2016
For Previous Years, Please Scroll Down

Future Wager Pool History 2009 - Present

2017 Early Triple Crown Nominations

Kentucky Derby 143 Poster

Continue to All Workouts

Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted

ALWAYS DREAMING
Jan. 10, five in 1:01.80 Breezing 3/4 at PBD
Jan. 18, five in 1:01.60 Breezing 2/3 at PBD
Feb. 11, four in 47.80 Breezing 1/18 at PBD
Feb. 18, four in 49:20 Breezing 10/24 at PBD
Feb. 25, four in 47:80 Breezing 4/28 at PBD
March 18, four in 48:00 Breezing 1/20 at PBD
March 25, four in 48:40 Breezing 1/26 at PBD
April 14, four in 49:55 Breezing 5/18 at PBD
April 21, four in 1.01:40 Breezing 1/6 at PBD
April 28, five in 59:60 Breezing 1/35 at CD

BATTLE OF MIDWAY
Jan. 4, five in 1:00.60 Handily gate 17/150 at SA
Jan. 15, six in 1:13.40 Handily 5/36 at SA
Jan. 29, four in 48.60 Handily 26/57 at SA
Feb. 5, five in 1:04.20 Handily 85/91 at SA
Feb. 21, four in 49:80 Handily 33/36 at SA
Feb. 27, five in 59:40 Handily 2/29 at SA
March 5, five in 1.00:20 Handily 1/43 at SA
March 19, four in 47:60 Handily 3/80 at SA
March 25, five in 59:80 Handily 7/75 at SA
April 1, six in 1.11:80 Handily 1/23 at SA
April 16, four in 48:40 Handily 14/53 at SA
April 22, five in 1.00:60 Handily 14/37 at SA
April 28, six in 1.13:40 Handily 4/9 at SA

CLASSIC EMPIRE
Jan. 8, four in 49.00 Breezing 14/22 at PMM
Jan. 16, five in 1:02.55 Breezing 8/11 at PMM
Jan. 21, five in 1:00.75 Breezing gate 3/18 at PMM
Jan. 28, five in 1:03.90 Breezing 25/28 at PMM
March 12, four in 48:95 Breezing 3/34 at PMM
March 22, five in 1.01:40 Breezing 1/2 at WND
March 28, five in 59:30 Breezing from gate 1/2 at WND
April 3, five in 59.80 Breezing from gate 1/4 at WND
April 8, four in 50.00 Breezing 1/2 at WND
April 28, four in 49:20 Breezing 45/82 at CD

FAST AND ACCURATE
Jan. 4, five in 1:02.20 Breezing 3/12 at TP
Jan. 11, five in 1:02.40 Breezing 11/20 at TP
Jan. 21, five in 1:00.20 Breezing 1/12 at TP
Jan. 28, five in 1;02.20 Breezing 3/14 at TP
Feb. 11, five in 1:00.40 Breezing 2/16 at TP
March 4, four in 47.40 Breezing 4/58 at GP
March 11, five in 1:02.40 Breezing 21/35 at GP
March 18, five in 1;01.60 Breezing 12/44 at GP
April 8, four in 47:60 Breezing 4/16 at CDT
April 15, five in 59:60 Breezing 1/15 at CDT
April 23, five in 1.00:20 Breezing good track 2/11 at CDT
April 30, five in 1.01:20 Breezing 17/32 at CD

GIRVIN
Dec. 31, four in 49.62 Breezing 31/111 at EVT
Jan. 14, five in 1:01.30 Breezing at 12/49 at EVT
Jan. 29, five in 1:00.40 Breezing 3/31 at FG
Feb. 17, four in 49:20 Breezing 21/56 at FG
March 11, four in 49:00 Breezing 19/86 at FG
March 18, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 8/54 at FG
March 25, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 4/23 at FG
April 15, four in 47:80 Breezing 1/30 at CDT
April 29, five in 59:60 Breezing 2/16 at KEE

GORMLEY
Jan. 2, five in 1:00.60 Handily good track 3/9 at SA
Jan. 18, four in 51.20 Handily 112/115 at SA
Jan. 26, five in 1:00.80 Handily 30/87 at SA
Feb. 2 four in 49:60 Handily 43/73 at SA
Feb. 10, five in 1.02:40 Handily 78/101 at SA
Feb. 20, four in 47:80 Handily 8/49 at SA
Feb. 27, six in 1.11:00 Handily 1/14 at SA
March 6, five in 1.02:40 Handily 30/37 at SA
March 21, four in 48:80 Handily 21/41 at SA
March 25, three in 37:00 Handily 9/21 at SA
March 27, five in 1.02:00 Handily 32/53 at SA
April 2, six in 1.14:00 Handily 3/10 at SA
April 15, three in 37.80 Handily 14/16 at SA
April 22, six in 1.15:80 Handily 10/11 at SA
April 29, seven in 1.26:20 Handily 1/2 at SA

GUNNEVERA
Dec. 31, five in 59.85 Breezing 1/29 at GPW
Jan. 8, five in 58.80 Breezing 1/22 at GPW
Jan. 14, five in 1:01.00 Breezing 5/30 at GPW
Jan. 21, five in 1:00.85 Breezing 3/30 at GPW
Jan. 28, five in 1:00.400 Breezing 4/21 at GPW
Feb. 18, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/20 at GPW
Feb. 25, five furlongs at GPW, too foggy to clock
March 18, five in 1.04:60 Breezing 22/24 at GPW
March 25, five in 1.01:80 Breezing 7/21 at GPW
April 15, five in 1.00:60 Breezing 3/13 at GPW
April 21, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/15 at GPW
April 28, five in 1.03:60 Breezing 35/35 at CD

HENCE
Jan. 13, four in 52.00 Breezing 72/80 at OP
Feb. 1, five in 1:02.20 Breezing 8/23 at OP
Feb. 15, 50:00 Breezing on a muddy track 5/13 at FG
March 11, five in 1.02:00 Breezing 18/37 at OP
March 18, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 10/41 at OP
April 10, four in 47:80 6/17 at CD
April 17, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 1/16 at CD
April 24, four in 1.00:00 Breezing 3/31 at CD

IRAP
Jan. 8, four in 51.80 Handily good training track 58/64 at SA
Jan. 15, five in 1:01.00 Handily 20/122 at SA
Jan. 21, four in 48.00 good training track 2/36 at SA
Jan. 28, six in 1:14.60 Handily 13/24 at SA
Feb. 16, four in 47:80 Handily 23/146 at SA
March 10, four in 48:60 Handily 14/44 at SA
March 17, six in 1.13:60 Handily 5/19 at SA
April 21, one mile in 1:44.00 Breezing 1/1 at KEE
April 28, one mile in 1:44.20 Breezing 1/1 at KEE

IRISH WAR CRY
Dec. 8 five in 1:01.60 Breezing 4/5 at FAI
Dec. 14, five in 1:02.40 Breezing 1/4 at FAI
Dec. 23, six in 1:15.60 Breezing 1/1 at FAI
Jan. 22, four in 48.95 Breezing 4/28 at PMM
Jan. 28, five in 1:01.00 Breezing 3/28 at PMM
Feb. 25, five in 1.01:65 Breezing 14/17 at PMM
March 25, five in 1.01:10 Breezing 14/34 at PMM
April 2, six in 1.13:40 Breezing 1/3 at FAI
April 30, six in 1.13:20 Breezing 1/2 at FAI

J BOYS ECHO
Jan. 7, five in 1:01.20 Breezing 7/51 at GP
Jan. 14, five in 59.60 Breezing 8/48 at GP
Jan. 21, four in 50.60 Breezing 63/80 at GP
Jan. 31, four in 51.60 Breezing 32/34 at GP
Feb. 19, four in 51:95 Breezing 42/43 at GP
Feb. 25, five in 1.01:82 Breezing 4/21 at GP
March 18, four in 52:51 Breezing 66/66 at GP
March 25, five in 1.02:89 Breezing 19/24 at GP
April 1, five in 1.00:69 Breezing 7/20 at GP
April 17, four in 49:20 Breezing 6/10 at CD
April 23, five in 1.02:20 Breezing 26/38 at CD
April 29, five in 1.01:00 Breezing good track 5/21 at CD

LOOKIN AT LEE
Dec. 24, four in 52.20 Breezing 129/146 at FG
Dec. 31, four in 50.00 Breezing 57/140 at FG
Jan. 6, five in 1:02.80 Breezing 18/27 at FG
Jan. 13, five in 1:01.60 Breezing 11/27 at FG
Jan. 20. five in 1:02.00 Breezing 9/34 at FG
Jan. 27, six in 1:13.40 Breezing 3/4 at FG
Feb. 3, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 3/53 at FG
Feb. 13, four in 50:20 Breezing 26/35 at OP
March 9, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 8/40 at OP
March 15, four in 50:00 Breezing 14/26 at OP
March 27, four in 52:00 Breezing good track 15/19 at OP
April 2, five in 1.00:40 Breezing 2/26 at OP
April 9, four in 51:00 Breezing34/39 at OP
April 24, four in 51:20 Breezing 48/51 at CD

MCCRAKEN
Dec. 15, four in 50.80 Breezing 31/44 at PMM
Dec. 22, four in 49.75 Breezing 18/41 at PMM
Dec. 30, four in 50.50 Breezing  31/49 at PMM
Jan. 9, four in 50.50 Breezing 16/18 at PMM
Jan. 13, five in 1:01.95 Breezing  1/13 at PMM
Jan. 18, five in 1:02.20 Breezing 9/11 at PMM
Jan. 25, five in 1:00.45 Breezing 1/10 at PMM
Jan. 31, five in 1:01.10 Breezing 2/15 at PMM
Feb. 6, four in 49:60 Breezing 18/24 at PMM
Feb. 27, four in 48:90 Breezing 6/27 at PMM
March 11, four in 50:20 Breezing 62/76 at PMM
March 20, five in 1:00 Breezing 1/7 at KEE
March 27, six in 1.13:40 Breezing 1/2 at KEE
April 2, four in 49:40 Breezing 14/35 at KEE
April 18, four in 47:80 Breezing 2/17 at CD
April 24, five in 1.00:60 Breezing 6/31 at CD
April 30, five in 1.00:80 Breezing 10/32 at CD

PATCH
Jan. 1, five in 1:04.00 Breezing 3/4 at PBD
Jan. 9, four in 49.80 Breezing gate 4/16 at PBD
Feb. 4, four in 48.00 Breezing 1/14 at PBD
Feb. 11, four in 48.00 Breezing 2/18 at PBD
March 4, four in 49:00 Breezing 1/20 at PBD
March 11, five in 1.02:00 Breezing 2/4 at PBD
March 18, five in 1.01:00 Breezing 1/8 at PBD
March 25, four in 49:20 Breezing 5/26 at PBD
April 14, four in 49:45 Breezing 3/18 at PBD
April 21, five in 1.01:45 Breezing 2/6 at PBD
April 28, four in 1.00:20 Breezing 3/35 at CD

PRACTICAL JOKE
Jan. 17, three in 37.75 Breezing 3/6 at PMM
Jan. 24, four in 48.25 Breezing 2/35 at PMM
Jan. 31, four in 48.00 Breezing 1/41 at PMM
Feb. 6, four in 49.00 Breezing 11/24 at PMM
Feb. 13, five in 1.00:90 Breezing 1/5 at PMM
Feb. 19, five in 1.00:45 Breezing 1/9 at PMM
Feb. 26, four in 48:00 Breezing 3/41 at PMM
March 18, four in 48:75 Breezing 9/61 at PMM
March 25, five in 1.00:90 Breezing 6/34 at PMM
April 4, five in 1.00:45 Breezing 4/14 at PMM
April 21, four in 49:80 Breezing 39/67 at KEE
April 28, five in 1.01:60 Breezing 19/35 at CD

ROYAL MO
Jan. 4, five in 1:00.80 Handily 21/150 at SA
Jan. 16, five in 1:03.20 Handily 64/89 at SA
Jan. 26, five in 1:00.20 Handily 14/87 at SA
Feb. 16, four in 48:20 Handily 30/146 at SA
Feb. 24, six in 1.15:40 Handily 12/18 at SA
March 4, six in 1.14:80 Handily 13/20 at SA
March 11, six in 1.13:40 Handily 7/15 at SA
March 28, four in 47:60 Handily 5/21 at SA
April 3, five in 1:01.20 Handily 15/34 at SA
April 23, five in 1:01.00 Handily 26/71 at SA
April 29, six in 1.13:00 Handily 5/14 at SA

SONNETEER
Jan. 14, five in 1:02.00 Handily good track 6/19 at SA
Feb. 20, four in 47.40 Handily 3/49 at SA
March 11, five in 1:00.00 Handily 8/65 at SA
April 1, four in 47.80 Handily 9/52 at SA
April 9, six in 1:13.00 Handily 1/11 at SA

STATE OF HONOR
Jan. 21, four in 48.00 Breezing 6/55 at PMM
Jan. 28, five in 1:01.10 Breezing 5/28 at PMM
Feb. 3, four in 47.00 Breezing 1/29 at PMM
Feb. 24, four in 47:15 Breezing 1/48 at PMM
March 3, four in 47:75 Breezing 7/38 at PMM
March 25, four in 48:30 Breezing 13/97 at PMM
April 16, four in 49:80 Breezing 28/44 at CD
April 21, five in 1.01:60 Breezing 21/40 at CD
April 28, four in 48:80 Breezing 32/82 at CD

Continue to All Workouts

Downey Profile subscribers to the Kentucky Derby service have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, Downey's in-depth post-race analyses of the Kentucky Derby prep races starting with the Risen Star Stakes, special NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!

Our Derby Trail Subscription Service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from trainers, jockeys and owners. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3)  We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

--Dick Downey

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were:
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)

For the first time, Downey put together a superfecta part wheel for subscribers. The cost for a $1 ticket was $88, and we were fortunate enough to see that bet hit and pay $542.10.

The Commish picked:
1. EXAGGERATOR (second)
2. NYQUIST (first)
3. MY MAN SAM (eleventh)
4. WHITMORE (nineteenth)
5. MO TOM (eighth)

The Commish stuck to his guns with Exaggerator in the Preakness, and he won the race.

 

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)

The Commish picked:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FIRING LINE (second)
4. FROSTED (fourth)
5. CARPE DIEM (tenth)

The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. In 2017, the site went live before the Feb. 25 Risen Star Stakes.

We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.

Thanks for everything, and it's good see you again.

--By Dick Downey

 

MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page is an introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a variety of factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.



A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in A workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it. In addition, Downey's top 5 selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five.

In 2016, Nyquist, a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.



Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness + Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.



A Little About Us and Our Products

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, a sole proprietorship. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.

While the website has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.

Our Derby Trail Subscription was offered in 2015 and did well, and it's back in 2017. That information was offered free in 2016 because illness in Downey's family shortened our coverage. This service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from and about trainers, jockeys, owners and the horses. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

 

 

The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile © 2003-2017

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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