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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile®
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SUBSCRIBER NOTICES: Kentucky Derby Subscription Page: The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby are updated, and all factors are now in play. Segment 13 NOTES: Summay of Overlapping Ownerships of Kentucky Derby Contenders. Derby Trail Subscription Page:  The Commish selected five horses in the Lexington and was one horse shy of getting them in exact order. Dick's Picks took selected four horses in the Arkansas Derby and was one shy of picking the top five,but he missed the exacta. Both had the winner right on top. The Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case pages, with profiles of over 100 horses, are up to date following Saturday's races.

In 2018, we have two Subscription Pages, the same format used in 2017: (1) The tried and true Kentucky Derby Subscription, which include the Preakness and Belmont Stakes at no extra charge, and (2) The Derby Trail Subscription Page. For fuller descriptions, please click either of the two links immediately below and/or scroll down.  Further, to read in detail about The Downey Profile, click here. The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013

Three Ways to Order Our Subscription Page
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Kentucky Derby PPs in Points Order
Kentucky Oaks PPs in Points Order

Courtesy of Brisnet

Kentucky Derby Leaderboard as of April 18

 

On Twitter: @DowneyProfile

Downey Profile Kentucky DerbySubscribers: The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby are updated, and all factors are now in play. Segment 13 NOTES: Summary of Overlapping Ownerships of Kentucky Derby Contenders

Courier-Journal on Pat Day: 'Always A Stillness About Him'

Boston Globe: Gronkowski Buys Part of Gronkowski

Still Having Fun Again Tries Two Turns in Tesio

Thunder Over Louisville: Disco Inferno

Around the Web
Gronkowski on Track at CD by May 1
Battaglia Discusses Derby Morning Line

All Well with Magnum Moon

Lexington Runners Emerge Well

Hofburg's First Breeze Since Florida Derby

NOTE: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Named to Ride Hofburg

Magnum Moon Wins Arkansas Derby by Four

My Boy Jack Solidly in Kentucky Derby Picture

Promises Fulfilled Trying to Work His Way Back

Audible, Noble Indy Work for Pletcher

Bravazo Breezes at Churchill Downs

Louisville House Owned by Donerail Rider Goose Gets Historical Marker

Lone Sailor Gets Back to Work

Churchill Unveils New Parking/Traffic Plans

Castellano Defects from Bolt d'Oro

Pool 4 Closes With Justify at 3-1

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 Final

Justify Gets His Kentucky Derby Points

Good Magic Back on Top in Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

Vino Rosso Negotiates Second Turn, Wins Wood Memorial

Audible Wins Florida Derby With Closing Burst

Mendelssohn Dominates UAE Derby

Gronkowski Takes Burradon Stakes

Runaway Ghost Easily Best in Sunland Derby

Noble Indy Turns Back the Closers

Magnum Moon Much the Best in Rebel

Blended Citizen Roars to Jeff Ruby Steaks Win

V. I. P. Code Upsets in Private Terms

River Boyne Gets Up in Pasadena

Stewards Decide Who Wins San Felipe

Quip Bursts onto Kentucky Derby Scene in Tampa

Enticed Comes from Behind to Win One-Turn Gotham

Promises Fulfilled Shows the Way in Fountain of Youth

Maraud, Speed Franco Much the Best in Palm Beach

Resurgent Reride Takes Mine That Bird Derby

My Boy Jack Skims Southwest Rail

Wanna Go Two Turns? Heck Yeah!

Lukas, Calumet in Derby Picture with Bravazo

Paved Beats Boys in El Camino Real Derby

Still Having Fun Closes to Win Snowy Miracle Wood

Flameaway Upsets in Sam F. Davis Stakes

Kanthaka Rallies to Win San Vicente at 11-1

Read about The Downey Profile

Race Videos

2018 Early Triple Crown Nominations

Stats About the 2018 Nominees

How The Commish Nailed the Belmont Cold Trifecta

How Downey and Johnson Each Picked the 2017 Kentucky Derby Winner

Continue to More Workouts

Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted

April 18, Aquila four in 49:60 Handily 19/33 at SA
April 18, Gotta Go four in 48:80 Breezing 14/24 at CD
April 18, Peace five in 1.01:80 Handily 15/33 at SA

April 17, New York Central five in 1.02:60 Breezing 13/19 at CD
April 17, Snapper Sinclair five in 1.03:20 Breezing 18/19 at CD
April 17, Sporting Chance four in 47:80 Breezing 2/20 at CD

April 16, Givemeaminit four in 49:20 Breezing 14/38 at CD
April 16, Shivermetimbers four in 48:40 Handily 7/31 at SA

April 15, Faversham four in 47:20 Handily 3/70 at SA
April 15, Hofburg four in 49.02 Breezing -/- at PAY
April 15, Instilled Regard four in 51:40 Handily 65/70 at SA
April 15, Kanthaka four in 50:00 Handily 45/70 at SA
April 15, Run Away four in 48:80 Handily 24/70 at SA
April 15, Soutache four in 49:94 Breezing 42/66 at GP
April 15, Talent Scout five in 1.01:20 Handily 7/13 at LRC

April 14, Afleet Ascent five in 1.02:20 Handily 34/59 at SA
April 14, Cove Blue four in 46:60 Breezing 2/36 at CD
April 14, Dark Templar four in 48:20 Breezing 5/36 at CD
April 14, Gidu four in 48:45 Breezing 2/12 at PBD
April 14, Hyndford four in 49:44 Breezing 12/34 at BEL
April 14, Mask five in 1.01:15 Breezing 1/11 at PMM
April 14, Promises Fulfilled four in 49:00 Breezing 13/36 at CD
April 14, Runaway Ghost six in 1.13:80 Handily 1/1 at SUN
April 14, Still Having Fun six in 1.13:00 Breezing 1/2 at LRL
April 14, Super Sermon five in 1.01:95 Breezing 1/2 at PBD
April 14, Whereshetoldmetogo four in 50:20 Breezing 5/15 at DEL
April 14, World of Trouble three in 38:05 Breezing 6/8 at PMM

April 13, Audible four in 48:75 Breezing 1/26 at PBD
April 13, Bravazo five in 1.01:20 Breezing 9/23 at CD
April 13, Ezmosh four in 48:80 Breezing 13/45 at CD
April 13, Noble Indy five in 1.01:00 Breezing 4/7 at PBD
April 13, Ride a Comet four in 48:20 Breezing 4/45 at CD
April 13, Untamed Domain five in 1.01:00 Breezing synthetic track 2/21 at FAI

April 12, Sea Foam five in 1.02:20 Breezing 1/7 at PAY
April 12, The Tabulator five in 1.02:60 Breezing synthetic 2/2 at AP

April 11, Choo Choo five in 1.03:20 Handily 17/19 at SA
April 11, Lombo four in 47:40 Handily 2/40 at SA
April 11, Lone Sailor four in 47:80 Breezing 6/30 at CD
April 11, Peace four in 50:40 Handily 34/40 at SA

April 10, Diamond King five in 1.02:42 Breezing 1/12 at PRX
April 10, Zulfikhar four in 48:00 Handily 2/20 at SA

April 9, Combatant four in 50:20 Breezing 25/39 at OP
April 9, Givemeaminit four in 48:20 Breezing 2/30 at CD
April 9, Higher Power four in 49:60 Breezing 16/39 at OP
April 9, Ike six in 1.14:40 Handily 2/11 at SA
April 9, Seven Trumpets four in 46:00 Breezing 1/30 at CD
April 9, Tenfold four in 49:60 Breezing 16/39 at OP
April 9, Title Ready four in 50:80 Breezing 28/39 at OP

April 8, Afleet Ascent four in 52:60 Handily 62/63 at SA
April 8, High North four in 48:00 Breezing muddy track 1/60 at OP
April 8, New York Central four in 51:60 Breezing15/20 at CD
April 8, Ride a Comet five in 59:60 Breezing 2/7 at CD
April 8, Run Away four in 49:40 Handily 26/63 at SA
April 8, Snapper Sinclair four in 51:80 Breezing 17/20 at CD
April 8, Solomini six in 1.13:60 Handily 1/7 at SA
April 8, Talent Scout five in 1.01:60 Handily 6/10 at LRC

April 7, Biblical four in 49:00 Breezing 2/20 at PBD
April 7, Exclamation Point four in 48:80 Breezing muddy track 2/20 at OP
April 7, Greyvitos five in 1.00:20 Handily 2/39 at SA
April 7, He Takes Charge four in 49:80 Breezing 19/26 at CD
April 7, Hyndford four in 49:30 Breezing 3/20 at PBD
April 7, Magnum Moon four in 48:65 Breezing 1/20 at PBD
April 7, Mask four in 48:65 Breezing 4/46 at PMM
April 7, My Boy Jack five in 1.01:40 Handily 14/39 at SA
April 7, Super Sermon four in 49:85 Breezing 10/20 at PBD

April 6, Coltandmississippi four in 49:55 Breezing training track 31/93 at BEL
April 6, Curlin's Honor four in 48:00 Breezing 2/47 at KEE
April 6, Ezmosh four in 51:60 Breezing 45/52 at CD
April 6, Noble Indy four in 50:20 Breezing 5/18 at PBD
April 6, Pony Up four in 50:05 Breezing 4/18 at PBD
April 6, Quip four in 48:60 Breezing 14/47 at KEE
April 6, Road to Damascus four in 51:00 Breezing 9/18 at PBD
April 6, Ruler of the Nile five in 1.02:50 Breezing 1/6 at PBD
April 6, Runaway Ghost five in 1.03:40 Handily 4/6 at SUN
April 6, Still Having Fun five in 1.01:40 Breezing 5/18 at LRL
April 6, Untamed Domain six in 1.14:00 Breezing synthetic track 1/4 at FAI

April 5, Plainsman six in 1.13:00 Breezing 1/1 at OP
April 5, Supreme Aura four in 47:80 Breezing 4/38 at OP

April 4 Choo Choo four in 51:20 Handily 3/5 at SA
April 4 Sea Foam four in 49:40 Breezing 1/8 at PAY

April 3, Gotta Go four in 49:60 Breezing 43/66 at KEE
April 3, Ike six in 1.13:60 Handily 1/8 at SA
April 3, The Tabulator four in 47:00 Breezing 1/6 at HAW
April 3, Zulfikhar six in 1.13:80 Handily 1/5 at SA

April 2, Aquila five in 1.04:40 Handily 80/82 at SA
April 2, Bravazo four in 48:60 Breezing 4/15 at OP
April 2, Combatant five in 1.01:20 Breezing 1/10 at OP
April 2, Heck Yeah four in 50:40 Handily 52/60 at SA
April 2, Justify six in 1.13:20 Handily 2/8 at SA
April 2, Mitole four in 52:00 Breezing 14/15 at OP
April 2, Restoring Hope five in 59:80 Breezing 2/82 at SA
April 2, Solomini five in 59:80 Handily 2/82 at SA
April 2, Sporting Chance four in 48:40 Breezing 3/15 at OP
April 2, Tenfold five in 1.01:20 Breezing 1/10 at OP
April 2, Title Ready five in 1.01:80 Breezing 5/10 at OP
April 2, Zing Zang four in 51:60 Breezing 12/15 at OP

April 1, Bolt d'Oro five in 1.01:20 Handily 11/77 at SA
April 1, Faversham four in 49:40 Handily 2/6 at LRC
April 1, Fire When Ready five in 1.00:20 Handily 1/77 at SA
April 1, Greyvitos seven in 1.27:80 Handily 1/1 at DMR
April 1, Lombo five in 1.00:80 Handily 6/77 at SA
April 1, Navistar four in 49:47 Breezing 1/9 at PBD
April 1, Quip five in 1.00:40 Breezing 2/15 at KEE
April 1, Ride a Comet four in 47:00 Breezing 1/44 at KEE
April 1, Run Away three in 36:80 Handily 6/23 at SA
April 1, Talent Scout five in 1.01:40 Handily 6/8 at LRC
April 1, Telekinesis five in 1.01:00 Breezing 6/15 at KEE

Continue to More Workouts

 

 

 

 

Downey Profile subscribers to the Kentucky Derby service have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, Downey's in-depth post-race analyses of the Kentucky Derby prep races starting with the Risen Star Stakes, special NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!

Our Derby Trail Subscription Service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Sam F. Davis Stakes and San Vicente Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from trainers, jockeys and owners. We usually start out with about 100 horses on these lists. We started with 103 this year. (3)  We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

--Dick Downey

Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for the fourth straight year in 2017. Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4, Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.

1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)

The Commish picked the winner right on top for the third time in four years:
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. HENCE (eleventh)
3. STATE OF HONOR (nineteenth)
4. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
5. TAPWRIT (sixth)

 

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were:
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)

For the first time, Downey put together a superfecta part wheel for subscribers. The cost for a $1 ticket was $88, and we were fortunate enough to see that bet hit and pay $542.10.

The Commish picked:
1. EXAGGERATOR (second)
2. NYQUIST (first)
3. MY MAN SAM (eleventh)
4. WHITMORE (nineteenth)
5. MO TOM (eighth)

The Commish stuck to his guns with Exaggerator in the Preakness, and he won the race.

 

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)

The Commish picked:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FIRING LINE (second)
4. FROSTED (fourth)
5. CARPE DIEM (tenth)

 

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were:
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)

The Commish picked:
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. CANDY BOY (thirteenth)
3. INTENSE HOLIDAY twelfth)
4. DANZA (third)
5. CHITU (ninth)

 

The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. In 2018, the site went live before the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes and San Vicente Stakes.

We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.

Thanks for everything, and it's good see you again.

--By Dick Downey

 

MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page is an introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a variety of factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.



A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in A workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it. In addition, Downey's top 5 selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five.

In 2016, Nyquist, a Top 4 horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.

In 2017, Downey went outside the Top Downey Profile 4 and selected the top Profile Buster Profile horse, Always Dreaming, to win the Kentucky Derby. The Downey Profile had produced the winner of the Kentucky Derby from its Top 4 in 30 of the last 44 runnings, but sometimes there are identifiable factors that can bust the Profile. After Downey witnessed the tremendous final Derby workout of Always Dreaming, he decided that 2017 might be one of those times.


A Little About Us and Our Products

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, a sole proprietorship. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.

While the website has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.

Our Derby Trail Subscription was offered in 2015 and 2017 and did well, and it's back in 2018. That information was offered free in 2016 because illness in Downey's family shortened our coverage. This service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from and about trainers, jockeys, owners and the horses. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

 

© 2003-2018 Dick Downey dba The Downey Profile

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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