Research/Selections and More Page: Highlights/Post-Race Comments from the Holy Bull are posted. No Derby Points races this weekend, but we'll cover the Sam F. Davis and post some info about the 96ROCK Stakes and San Vicente Stakes.
Kentucky Derby Subscription Page: Post-Race Analysis and Internal Splits from the Holy Bull and other notes coming no later than Monday.
To read about The Downey Profile, click here.
Two Subscription Products -- Three Ways to Subscribe
By Credit Card -- Subscribe here.
By PayPal -- Subscribe here.
By Mail Payment -- Send an email to email@example.com and we'll make arrangements.
Trouble with your username or password? Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013.
Kentucky Derby Points Triple Crown Nominees Derby Future Wager NTRA Polls
Upstart Well; Options for Next Start
Upstart has come out of the Holy Bull in good shape. Trainer Rick Violette, Jr. says he has options for the colt's next start. Photo by Lauren King More
Notice to Subscribers
In addition to free content and our traditional subscription product focusing on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, in 2015 we are offering a new product providing Resarch, Selections and More. This subscription contains our well-known Lists, Selections for all the Derby prep races and more. Read details here.
Upstart Gets Good Trip in Professional Holy Bull Victory
Upstart was the victim of bad luck in his first two races in graded stakes company, but everything went well for the New York-bred colt as he rolled to a 5 1/2-length victory in Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes. More
Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard Updated Jan. 24, 2015
Hess/Desormeaux Strike Again with Mischief Clem
With odds-on favorite Acceptance spent with a quarter mile to run, longshot Mischief Clem was ultra-game in fending off Pulmarack through the lane, prevailing in the California Cup Derby by a head under Kent Desormeaux. More
Barbados Looks to Go Longer After Hutcheson Win
After winning the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park, trainer Michael Tomlinson joked he lost his identity. His horse Barbados, after scoring his third straight victory, may have found his. More
Cinco Charlie Waltzes in Riley Allison
Favored at 1-5, Cinco Charlie, with Casey Lambert aboard, was never challenged and won the Allison Riley Derby easily, timed in 1:38.18 for the mile, his longest race to date. The second finisher, Made Me Talk, was 8 1/2 lengths behind at the finish. Only six ran. Cinco Charlie waltzed to the finish line after setting fractions of :21.88, :45.62 and 1:11.30 for trainer Steve Asmussen..
Exodus Much the Best in Allen's Landing
At 2-5 odds, Exodus set the pace and held off any potential challenges to easily win the seven-furlong Allen's Landing Stakes at Sam Houston Race Park. The only runner that tried to mount a challenge was Waging War, the 5-2 second choice. Exodus, ridden by Kerwin Clark and trained by Larry Jones, won by 2 1/4-lengths. He was timed in 1:24.32 after setting fast fractions of :21.96 and :44.92.
Dubai Sky Wins Kitten's Joy
Dubai Sky, trained by Bill Mott, got up in the final strides to defeat stablemate Courtier by a head in the Kitten's Joy Stakes. More
Mr. Z to Try Again in Southwest
Mr. Z, who finished an eventful third in Monday’s Smarty Jones Stakes, will make his next start in the Southwest Stakes, trainer D. Wayne Lukas said Thursday morning. The trainer gave a reason for the colt's aberrant behavior in the race. More
Far Right Returns to Training Friday
Trainer Ron Moquett said Far Right will return to the track Friday morning in preparation for his next start, either the Southwest Stakes or the Rebel Stakes a month later. More
Kentucky Derby Future Odds from Wynn
Updated after the Smarty Jones Stakes
Donate to TAA for Chance at Great Gigs
Fans can win packages to the Florida Derby, Preakness, Miami Heat or Iggy Azalea by donating $40 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Program beginning Friday at Gulfstream Park and online at https://tickets.gulfstreampark.com/Online/default.asp. More
TDP 2014 Wrapup
Here's the wrap of The Downey Profile 2014 Subscription Page info for the Triple Crown races. The Commish and Downey each selected California Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness -- and the Belmont Stakes, too. Click to read all the details here.
Read About The Downey Profile
Triple Crown Nominations
Kentucky Derby 2015 Future Wager
Kentucky Derby 141: May 2, 2015
Preakness Stakes 140: May 16, 2015
Belmont Stakes 147: June 6, 2015
Downey in NTRA Poll
Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile will carry results here when the poll resumes.
How Our Selections Fared in Recent Years
How Our Selections Fared in the 2014 Triple Crown
The Commish and Downey: Triple Crown Races
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Triple Crown races appear only on our Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page -- along with The Downey Profile and other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby prep races, starting with the Lecomte Stakes, appear only on our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page.
To join the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page, and/or to join our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page, click here for credit card or here for PayPal.
ROAD WORK -- Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and Beyond
All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.
Bench Warrant worked five in 1.00:40 (2/18) at SA.
Big Swag worked five in 1.00:80 (9/44) at SA.
Honest breezed four in 51:20 (2/2) at GPW.
Mr. L. S. Shoe breezed six in 1.13:00 (1/4) at FG.
Mr. Z breezed five in 1.04:20 (13/15) at OP.
My Johnny Be good breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/13) at TBD.
Night Prowler breezed four on firm turf in 52:30 (13/32) at PMM.
Nun the Less breezed five in 1.02:10 (1/6) at GP.
Rock Shandy worked six in 1.14:20 (8/12) at SA.
Soul Driver worked four in 48:60 (4/12) at SA.
Tiznow R J breezed four in 52:00 (60/72) at FG.
Bolo worked six in 1.13:60 (2/7) at SA.
Competitive Edge breezed four in 49:34 (8/29) at PBD.
Cross the Line worked four in 48:40 ( 17/85) at GG.
El Kabeir breezed five on the training track in 1.01:59 (2/19) at BEL.
Far from Over breezed four in 1.01:16 (1/9) at PBD.
Hard to Port breezed four in 51:25 (48/56) at GP.
Hashtag Bourbon breezed four in 48:20 (3/84) at TBD.
Indianaughty breezed four in 49:29 (15/56)at GP.
Itsaknockout breezed four in 49:98 (19/29) at PBD.
Leave the Light On breezed five in 1.00:90 (7/17) at PMM.
Materiality breezed four in 49:98 (16/23) at PBD.
Novak breezed four in 50:17 (30/56) at GP.
Punctuate worked six in 1.14:00 (4/11) at SA.
Rockinatten worked five in 1.02:00 (25/39) at SA.
Royal Son breezed four in 49:90 (14/23) at PBD.
Take Charge Brandi breezed five in 1.01:60 (2/19) at OP.
The Truth or Else breezed four in 49:60 (9/65) at OP.
Watergate breezed four on the training track in 48:05 (1/43) at BEL.
Bold Conquest breezed five in 1.02:00 (8/26) at FG.
Calculator breezed four in 47:80 (2/10) at SA.
Carpe Diem breezed four in 49:55 (9/17) at PBD.
Daredevil breezed four in 50:22 (17/17) at PBD.
Firing Line worked five in 1.00:60 (15/47) at SA.
Gold Shield breezed four in 53:90 (71/71) at PBD.
Iancol worked four in 48:80 (8/16) at SA.
Imperia breezed five in 1.02:80 (12/20) at PMM.
Madefromlucky breezed five in 1.01:16 (1/3) at PBD.
Texas Red worked five in 1.01:40 (30/61) at SA.
The Gomper worked six in 1.13:00 (3/17) at SA.
The Great War breezed five in 1.03:60 (14/17) at TP.
Vici breezed four in 49:40 (14/69) at OP.
Classy Class breezed four on the training track in 49:90 (16/76) at BEL.
Cozmic One worked five in 1.03:00 (60/79) at SA.
Cyrus Alexander worked four in 47:60 (3/14) at SA.
General Bellamy breezed four on the training track in 48:58 (3/76) at BEL.
Nasa breezed four in 50:06 (14/43) at PRX.
Ocean Knight breezed four in 48:30 (1/28) at PMM.
Souper Colossal breezed four in 49:80 (4/14) at GPW.
Well Maybe worked four in 47:60 (1/8) at LA.
Blame Jim breezed five in 1.01:21 (1/1) at PBD.
Catalina Red breezed five in 1.05:27 (1/2) at HTC.
Majestic Affair breezed four on the training track in 48:05 (2/41) at BEL.
Acceptance worked five in 1.00:00 (5/44) at SA.
Ami's Flatter breezed five in 1.01:90 (2/2) at PMM.
Conquest Typhoon worked five in 1.00:40 (5/32) at SA.
Dortmund worked seven in 1.23:40 (1/3) at SA.
Gorgeous Bird breezed four in 49:10 (5/18) at PMM.
Holy Boss breezed three in 37:80 (4/7) at OP.
Lord Nelson worked seven in 1.23:80 (2/3) at SA.
Mawthooq breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/2) at PMM.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 49:75 (8/18) at PMM.
Barbados breezed three in 38:51 (1/4) at GP.
Big Swag worked six in 1.13:20 (4/10) at SA.
Rock Shandy worked four in 50:40 (33/37) at SA.
Tradesman breezed four in 50:05 (31/43) at PMM.
Bold Conquest breezed five in 1.04:60 (37/38) at FG.
Bolo worked six in 1.12:60 (1/10) at SA.
Cinco Charlie breezed four in 49:80 (17/49) at FG.
Decision Day breezed five in 1.03:00 (13/15) at PMM.
Mr. L. S. Shoe breezed four in 48:60 (5/49) at FG.
My Johnny Be Good breeezed six in 1.12:80 (2/9) at TBD.
Night Prowler breezed four on firm turf in 48:85 (9/35) at PMM.
Punctuate worked five in 59:60 (3/26) at SA.
Blame Game breezed four in 49:19 (3/18) at PBD.
Bluegrass Singer breezed three in 36:00 (1/8) at GPW.
Bourbon Cowboy breezed four in 48:60 (10/85) at FG.
Competitive Edge breezed four in 49:66 (10/18) at PBD.
Danny Boy breezed four in 50:58 (45/55) at GP.
El Kabeir breezed four on the training track in 49:55 (37/113) at BEL.
Exodus breezed five in 1.00:60 (3/47) at FG.
Far From Over breezed five in 1.02:05 (15/23) at PBD.
Keen Ice breezed five in 1.02:43 (26/47) at GP.
Khozan breezed five in 1.00:97 (6/23) at PBD.
Leave the Light On breezed four in 48:45 (10/22) at PMM.
Madefromlucky breezed five in 1.02:05 (15/23) at PBD.
Overcontrol breezed four in 49:19 (3/18) at PBD.
Take Charge Brandi breezed five in 1.01:40 (1/14) at OP.
Upstart breezed six in 1.12:30 (1/1) at PMM.
Watergate breezed four on the training track in 49:09 (24/113) at BEL.
A. Rod Again breezed four in 51:62 (59/65) at GP.
Cook Some Rice breezed five in 1.03:37 (4/22) at EVT.
Carpe Diem breezed three in 37:40 (2/6) at PBD.
Daredevil breezed three in 36:53 (1/9) at PBD.
Firing Line worked five in 59:80 (4/43) at SA.
Frosted breezed four in 48:10 (5/52) at PMM.
Hashtag Bourbon breezed four in 48:60 (3/37) at TBD.
Honest breezed four in 52:60 (44/45) at GPW.
Imperia breezed four in 49:00 (17/52) at PMM.
Souper Colossal breezed four in 49:80 (14/45) at GPW.
Texas Red worked six from the gate in 1.14:00 (9/11) at SA.
The Gomper worked five in 59:80 (6/63) at SA.
The Great War breezed five in 59:60 (1/21) at TP.
Vici breezed five in 1:02.60 (21/40) at OP.
Blame Jim breezed four in 50:81 (3/4) at PBD.
Catalina Red breezed four in 54:96 (1/2) at HTC.
Gold Shield breezed four in 48:26 (3/33) at GP.
Majestic Affair breezed four on the training track in 48:05 (3/58) at BEL.
Mawthooq breezed four in 48:05 (3/21) at PMM.
Ocean Knight breezed five in 1.01:15 (2/3) at PMM.
Classy Class breezed four on the training track in 50:50 (35/48) at BEL.
Cozmic One worked five in 1.03:20 (39/44) at SA.
Frammento breezed four in 48:00 (2/33) at PMM.
General Bellamy breezed four on the training track in 48:34 (4/48) at BEL.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 51:90 (33/33) at PMM.
Well Maybe worked four in 47:20 (1/16) at LA.
Dortmund worked six in 1.12:20 (1/28) at SA.
Holy Boss breezed five in 1:01.80 (20/58) at OP.
Lord Nelson worked six in 1.12:60 (2/28) at SA.
Bayerd breezed four in 50:60 (18/39) at FG.
Bold Conquest breezed four in 51:00 (25/39) at FG.
Bolo breezed four in 48:00 (2/51) at SA.
Decision Day breezed five in 1.01:35 (4/9) at PMM.
Distant Kingdom breezed five in 1.04:20 (58/77) at OP.
Lucky Player breezed four in 50:60 (18/39) at FG.
Bench Warrant worked four in 48:40 (3/5) at SA.
Cinco Charlie breezed five on a good track in 1.02:40 (10/23) at FG.
Eagle breezed four in 49:40 (10/51) at FG.
Far Right breezed four on a good track in 49:40 (14/90) at OP.
Majestico breezed five on a good track in 1.01:20 (1/12) at OP.
Mr. Z breezed five in 1.01:20 (1/12) at OP.
My Johnny Be Good breezed four in 50:00 (11/13) at TBD.
Take Charge Brandi breezed four in 51:00 (17/34) at OP.
Tiznow R J breezed four in 49:00 (4/51) at FG.
Upstart breezed five in 1.00:80 (4/19) at PMM.
Blame Game breezed four in 49:61 (12/24) at PBD.
Bourbon Cowboy breezed four in 51:00 (38/76) at FG.
Competitive Edge breezed three in 36:98 (1/2) at PBD.
Far From Over breezed five in 1.01:41 (6/15) at PBD.
Indianaughty breezed four in 49:94 (63/86) at GP.
International Star breezed five in 1.01:32 (15/43) at GP.
Keen Ice breezed five in 59:25 (1/43) at GP.
Khozan breezed four in 1.01:21 (4/15) at PBD.
Leave the Light On breezed four in 49:30 (12/48) at PMM.
Madefromlucky breezed four in 49:21 (7/24) at PBD.
Old Mountain Lane breezed four in 49:21 (7/24) at PBD.
Overcontrol breezed four in 49:02 (5/24) at PBD.
Richard the Great breezed four in 48:02 (17/86) at GP.
Savoy Stomp breezed four in 49:02 (5/24) at PBD.
Tizquick breezed four on the training track in 50:05 (31/120) at BEL.
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to email@example.com.
After you subscribe, you can click here to sign in.
A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES: "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."
In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.
After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.
A Little About Us and Our Products
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.
While the web site has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.
Our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page covers our Four Lists that are constantly updated (130 horses listed at outset: Leading Names, Contenders, Wait and See, Watching), plus links to the specific lists horses entered in stakes races, Derby prep race selections, miscellaneous pre-race commentary, updates, prep race probables/possibles and the ever-important post-race quotes -- all conveniently linked from one page.