SUBSCRIBER NOTICE: Segment 15 NOTES (Arkansas Derby, Toyota Blue Grass) Were Posted April 16. The Downey Profile Rankings Were Updated April 15.
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Mixed Signals in Midnight Hawk's Trip to Windy City On Saturday, the Chicago Blackhawks will face off against the St. Louis Blues in the second game of their NHL playoff series. Later in the afternoon, Midnight Hawk, a horse with Blackhawks ties, will run in the Illinois Derby as, in all likelihood, an odds-on favorite. More
Lexington Could Have Marginal Derby Impact The undefeated Divine Oath may be the best horse in Saturday’s Coolmore Lexington Stakes, which drew 11 entries. Only one horse in the field can climb near the top 20 in points for the Kentucky Derby with a win. More
Constitution Out of Kentucky Derby Constitution has been knocked out of the Kentucky Derby with a hairline fracture in his front right cannon bone sustained and discovered on Monday. Connections released the information on Wednesday. More
Social Inclusion Works Toward Next Start Social Inclusion returned to the Gulfstream Park worktab Wednesday morning, breezing three furlongs in :35.04 with connections still hoping he can make the Kentucky Derby. More
Medal Count Confirmed for Derby Medal Count will make his next start in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, trainer Dale Romans confirmed. More
Derby Jockey Update Robby Albarado back on Medal Count.
Rafael Bejarano to ride Wildcat Red, his sixth different jockey.
Ricardo Santana Jr. will return to Tapiture if he runs. Joel Rosario was aboard in the Arkansas Derby.
Calvin Borel will be back on Ride On Curlin after last riding him in the Southwest Stakes.
TAA Luncheon To Thank Donors The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Foundation will thank donors on April 21 at a Stallion Farm Luncheon presented by Repole Stables on April 21. More
Stewart Sitting and Waiting Dallas Stewart is following the same strategy he did last year when Golden Soul ran second in the Kentucky Derby: Go to Churchill Downs short of Derby points and wait for defections. More
Subscriber Notice The Downey Profile Rankings were updated April 15, 2014. Another update will be made after the Illinois Derby and Coolmore Lexington Stakes.
Where They’re Going Next: Blue Grass Runners Via text, trainer Peter Eurton said Dance With Fate will return to California as scheduled on Monday – and that a decision about the Kentucky Derby won’t be coming for a week. More
Derby Decision Pending on Ring Weekend Graham Motion said Sunday he’ll wait and see whether to enter Ring Weekend in the Kentucky Derby. The colt is 16th on the Derby leaderboard. More
Pletcher Trio Breeze Toward Kentucky Derby Constitution, Intense Holiday and We Miss Artie returned to the worktab at Palm Meadows Training Center on Sunday, and Todd Pletcher talked about travel plans from Florida. More
Danza Shipping Sunday; Pletcher Jockeys Lining Up Danza is being shipped to Churchill Downs on Sunday, the day after his upset win of the Arkansas Derby. More
Apart from race handicapping, look for stories about Kentucky Derby theory and issues.
The Commishmakes selections for the Arkansas Derby. Dick Downey's selections for the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes atDick's Picks.
How Our Selections Fared
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
1. COASTLINE (tenth at 7-1)
2. BOBBY'S KITTEN (twelfth at 7-2)
3. GALA AWARD (sixth at 5-1)
4. ASSERTING BEAR (eighth at 18-1)
1. CONQUEST TITAN (fifth at 10-1)
2. TAPITURE (fourth at 2-1)
3. BAYERN (third at 8-5)
4. RIDE ON CURLIN (second at 7-1)
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes appear only on our Subscription Page along with other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please clickhere.
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Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby,
Triple Crown and Beyond
All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Keeneland, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.
Best Plan Yet breezed five in 1.01:60 (2/3) at CRC.
C. Zee breezed five in 1.00:80 (1/3) at CRC.
Global View breezed four in :50:40 (4/6) at KEE.
I’ll Wrap It Up worked five in 1.01:80 (24/32) at SA.
Social Inclusion breezed three in :35:04 (2/9) at CRC.
Gold Hawk breezed five in 1.01:80 (3/12) at CD.
Shared Belief worked three in :38:40 (2/2) at GG.
Deceived breezed four on the training track in :48:90 (18/65) at BEL.
Global Strike breezed four in :47:55 (2/20) at PMM.
Poker Player breezed four in :49:60 (15/16) at KEE.
Solitary Ranger breezed four in :48:80 (9/16) at KEE.
Cairo Prince breezed four in :48:60 (2/17) at PMM.
Can’thelpbelieving breezed four in :47:80 (23/79) at KEE.
Chitu worked five in 1.00:80 (16/51) at SA.
Constitution breezed four in :50:60 (17/17) at PMM.
Divine Oath breezed four in :48:60 (47/79) at KEE.
Edison breezed four in :50:20 (24/31) at PMM.
Havana breezed four on the training track in :50:42 (47/62) at BEL.
Intense Holiday breezed four in :48:90 ( 7/17) at PMM.
Midnight Hawk worked six in 1.13:60 (7/17) at SA.
Sassicaia breezed four on the training track in :48:27 (4/62) at BEL.
We Miss Artie breezed four in :48:90 (7/17) at PMM.
Enterprising worked five in 1.00:80 (17/65) at SA.
Craftsman worked four in :48:60 (17/41) at SA.
Matuszak breezed four in :48:65 (9/19) at BEL.
Royal Banker worked five in 1.02:40 (50/65) at SA.
Tamarando worked five in 1.01:80 (36/65) at SA.
Vicar’s in Trouble breezed four in :48:20 (3/12) at CDT.
Ami’s Holiday breezed six in 1.13:80 (1/2) at KEE.
Bashart worked five on firm turf in 1:02.00 (1/3) at PAY.
Joint Custody breezed five in 1.01:80 (2/8) at LRL.
All Tied Up breezed five in 1.01:90 (1/10) at PMM.
Chas’s Legacy breezed five in 1.01:60 (5/14) at CD.
Chelios worked three in :36:20 (9/19) at SA.
Commanding Curve breezed four in :48:20 (6/24) at CD.
Rise Up breezed four in :48:80 (11/24) at CD.
Spot breezed four in :47:85 (3/9) at PMM.
Papa Turf worked four in :48:20 (1/1) at SA.
Kendall’s Boy breezed four in :50:20 (5/9) at CD.
Roger Rocket breezed four in :50:40 (10/15) at SA.
Strong Mandate breezed three in :37:00 (2/4) at OP.
Asserting Bear breezed four in :48:00 (11/46) at KEE.
Casiguapo breezed three in :34:80 (1/4) at KEE.
Coltimus Prime breezed five in 1.01:20 (5/16) at KEE.
Conquest Titan breezed four in :47:40 (1/28) at CD.
Deceived breezed three on the training track in :36:17 (1/16) at BEL.
Demander breezed four in :49:20 (9/28) at CD.
Global Strike breezed four in :48:00 (1/15) at PMM.
Gold Hawk breezed four in :51:40 (25/28) at CD.
No Nay Never breezed four in :49:00 (28/46) at KEE.
Poker Player breezed four in :48:40 (19/46) at KEE.
Solitary Ranger breezed four in :47:40 (4/46) at KEE.
Tapiture breezed four in 50:80 (2/2) at OP.
Top Fortitude worked four in :49:00 (3/31) at SA.
Baratti breezed four on the training track in :48:15 (1/96) at BEL.
Bayern worked seven in 1.23:80 (1/5) at SA.
Big Bazinga breezed four in :47:60 (8/63) at KEE.
Can’thelpbelieving breezed four :49.00 (38/63)
Commissioner breezed four in :49:05 (8/24) at PMM.
Danza breezed four in :49:05 (8/24) at PMM.
Divine Oath breezed four in :50:60 (22/24) at PMM.
Edison breezed four in :50:10 (18/24) at PMM.
Extrasexyhippszter worked four in :46.00 (2/63) at KEE.
Gala Award breezed four in :49:25 (11/24) at PMM.
Havana breezed four on the training track in :50:03 (50/96) at BEL.
Monopolize breezed four in :50:60 (22/24) at PMM.
Mr Speaker worked four in :46:20 (3/63) at KEE.
Ride On Curlin breezed seven in 1.26:80 (1/1) at OP.
Rum Point worked four in :49:40 (35/47) at SA.
Sheltowee’s Boy breezed five in 1.01:60 (3/12) at OP.
Tamarando worked five on firm turf in 1.02:40 (5/5) at SA.
Vinceremos breezed four in :49:25 (11/24) at PMM.
Ami’s Holiday breezed five in 1.02:20 (46/57) at KEE.
Bobby’s Kitten breezed five in 1.00:20 (8/57) at KEE.
Bourbonize breezed four in :48:00 (3/43) at OP.
Dance with Fate worked five in 1.01:40 (8/24) at SA.
Harry’s Holiday breezed five in 1.01:60 (1/1) at CD.
Mexikoma breezed four in :51:85 (35/35) at PMM.
Pablo Del Monte breezed six in 1.13:00 (1/6) at KEE.
Sassicaia breezed four in :48:75 (6/35) at PMM.
Scotland breezed five in 1.01:00 (1/6) at FAI.
Bashart breezed four in :49:00 (1/6) at PAY.
Chelios worked six in 1.13:60 (8/21) at SA.
Coastline breezed five in 1.00:40 (2/19) at KEE.
Craftsman worked four in :49:20 (39/70) at SA.
Chitu worked four in :46:40 (2/40) at SA.
Matuszak worked four on the training track in :48:69 (9/61) at BEL.
Midnight Hawk worked four in :46.00 (1/40) at SA.
Papa Turf worked six in 1.15:00 (16/17) at SA.
Schoolofhardrocks worked four in :49:40 (28/40) at SA.
Shadow Banking breezed four in :50:00 (10/16) at PMM.
Wicked Strong breezed three on the training track in :37:26 (5/21) at BEL.
Global View breezed three in :38:00 (3/4) at KEE.
Undertaker breezed five in 1.00:09 (1/4) at PRX.
Coltimus Prime breezed five in :58:40 (1/4) at PMM.
Medal Count breezed five in 1.00:38 (7/26) at GP.
Schivarelli breezed four on the training track in :47:32 (1/13) at BEL.
Smack Smack breezed three in :37:00 (2/4) at OP.
Strong Mandate breezed five in 1.00:80 (5/21) at OP.
Uncle Sigh breezed four on the training track in :47:61 (1/2) at BEL.
Bayern worked five in 1.00:80 (20/46) at SA.
Casiguapo breezed six in 1.13:60 (1/1) at CRC.
Diamond Bachelor worked five in :58:60 (3/46) at SA.
Giancarlo breezed five in 1.03:00 (2/3) at CRC.
I’ll Wrap It Up worked six in 1.13:20 (3/5) at SA.
Kobe’s Back worked five in 1.00:40 (12/46) at SA.
Tapiture breezed five in 1.00:80 (1/11) at OP.
The Admiral worked four in :46:60 (4/47) at SA.
Ami’s Holiday breezed five in 1.01:40 (21/28) at KEE.
Coup de Grace breezed four in :47:60 (5/35) at PMM.
Danza breezed four in :49:30 (26/35) at PMM.
Divine Oath breezed four in :49:30 (26/35) at PMM.
Edison breezed four in :50:60 (34/35) at PMM.
Gala Award breezed four in :47:40 (1/35) at PMM.
Harpoon breezed four in :47:55 (3/35) at PMM.
Hoppertunity worked five in 1.01:20 (12/19) at SA.
Kristo worked six in 1.12:40 (1/7) at SA.
Pablo del Monte worked six in 1.14:00 (2/2) at KEE.
Ride on Curlin breezed five in 1.00:60 (4/46) at OP.
Son of Dixie breezed four in :51:00 (46/63) at OP.
Vinceremos breezed four in :47:40 (1/35) at PMM.
Bobby‘s Kitten breezed five on firm turf in :59:30 (1/1) at PMM.
California Chrome worked four in :46:40 (1/16) at LA.
Candy Boy worked six in 1.11:80 (3/25) at SA.
Chelios worked seven in 1.25:20 (1/1) at SA.
Cleburne breezed five in 1.01:46 (13/25) at GP.
Conquest Titan breezed five in 1.00:70 (2/20) at PMM.
Dance with Fate worked six in 1.12:80 (7/25) at SA.
Hesinfront breezed five in 1.00:75 (7/25) at GP.
Noble Moon breezed eight on the training track in 1.45:43 (1/1) at BEL.
Our Caravan breezed five in 1.01:00 (6/20) at PMM.
Rum Point worked five in 1.00:40 (11/45) at SA.
Sassicaia breezed four in :49:35 (20/65) at PMM.
Social Inclusion breezed four in :46:80 (2/51) at GP.
Storming Inti breezed four in :49:65 (34/65) at PMM.
Awesome Sky breezed five in 1.01:80 (7/12) at KEE.
Bashart breezed three on firm turf in :37:00 (1/3) at PAY.
Best Plan Yet breezed five in 1.03:00 (4/7) at CRC.
C. Zee breezed five in 1.03:00 (4/7) at CRC.
Clovelly breezed five in 1.03:40 (6/12) at PAY.
Laddie Boy worked five in 59:20 (1/12) at KEE.
Matuszak breezed five on the training track in 1.03:10 (24/42) at BEL.
Mr Speaker breezed four in :50:20 (4/10) at PAY.
Ring Weekend breezed five in 1.00:40 (1/7) at CRC.
Samraat breezed a mile in 1.44:05 (1/1) at PMM.
Schoolofhardrocks breezed six in 1.12:80 (2/13) at SA.
Can'thelpbelieving breezed four on firm turf in 53:45 (12/24) at PMM.
Son of a Preacher breezed four in :51:60 (19/22) at FG.
Tonalist breezed five in 1.04:00 (6/9) at PAY.
Top Fortitude worked seven in 1.28:20 (5/6) at SA.
Bayern worked five in 1.00:00 (8/37) at SA.
Global View breezed five in 1.00:00 (1/20) at TAM.
Social Inclusion breezed three in :35:42 (1/8) at GP.
Strong Mandate breezed four in :54:00 (21/22) at OP.
The Admiral worked four in :47:80 (4/31) at SA.
Wicked Strong breezed seven in 1.27:95 (1/1) at PMM.
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on left sidebar, or click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to email@example.com.
After you subscribe, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here.
A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES: "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."
After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. This product will be online after the Kentucky Derby.
A Little About Us
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the 12th consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.
While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.