Research/Selections and More Page: March 1: Coverage initiated Gotham Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe Stakes. March 1: Highlights/Post-Race quotes Battaglia Memorial. News/Commentary and our Lists are updated daily.
Kentucky Derby Subscription Page: Feb. 24: Post-race analyses of the Fountain of Youth, Risen Star and Southwest Stakes. The Downey Profile Rankings are current.
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Kentucky Derby Points Triple Crown Nominees Derby Future Wager NTRA Polls
Ocean Knight to Tampa Bay Derby After All
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said Tuesday that Sam F. Davis Stakes winner Ocean Knight will start in the Tampa Bay Derby after all. More
Dortmund to San Felipe
Dortmund will be entered in Saturday's San Felipe Stakes, Bob Baffert said today. More
El Kabeir, Others Work for Gotham
El Kabeir and two others turned in their final serious workouts Sunday morning for the Gotham Stakes. More
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 and All Pools Since 2009
New Tack for Souper Colossal?
Trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. is thinking about a new schedule for Souper Colossal with an eye toward the Triple Crown following the postponement of the Swale Stakes. More
Daredevil, Ready for Rye, X Y Jet on Target for Swale
Daredevil, Ready for Rye and the speedy X Y Jet will be among the horses to return in the postponed Fasig-Tipton Swale Stakes on Saturday. More
Back in the Palm Beach: Night Prowler, Croninthebarbarian, Divisidero
Chad Brown scratched Night Prowler from the Palm Beach when it was taken off the turf due to rain, but now that the race is going to be recarded, he'll be back. More
Notice to Subscribers
In addition to free content and our traditional subscription product focusing on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, in 2015 we are offering a new product providing Research, Selections and More. This subscription contains our well-known Lists, Selections for all the Derby preps, a News/Commentary section and more. Read details here.
The Great War Off Derby Trail
After a last-place finish at 3-10 odds in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, The Great War will not be pushed forward on the Kentucky Derby Trail. More
Royal Son Best in Battaglia
At 9-1 odds under Rodney Prescott, Royal Son went to the lead and stayed there in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park. More
Tuba Leaves Black Gold Foes Winded
Tuba, trained by Anne Smith, went gate-to-wire over eight others to win the Black Gold Stakes. More
Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard
Gulfstream Cancels Latter Portion of Card
Gulfstream Park cancelled its live program after the fifth race Saturday due to torrential rainstorms and thunderstorms in Broward and Miami-Dade County. The Swale and Palm Beach Stakes will be run March 7. More
Gotham Looking at Eight for Now
A potential field of eight is shaping up for the Gotham Stakes on March 7. More
Updated Kentucky Derby Future Odds from Wynn Casino Feb. 27
With Rain on the Way, Busy Workout Day at Santa Anita
With big rain expected Saturday, there were 302 recorded works Friday on Santa Anita's main track. Among them were San Felipe Stakes contenders. More
Kentucky Oaks Nominations Spike
Take Charge Brandi is the leading light among 154 horses on the roster of early nominations to the Kentucky Oaks. There is a 27% year-over-year increase in nominees. More
Dortmund, Ocho Ocho Ocho Lead West Coast Works
Thursday at Santa Anita, Dortmund worked seven furlongs and Ocho Ocho Ocho worked six toward his 3-year-old debut. More
Navarro Says One Thing Sure in Swale
Though they’re still getting to know each other, trainer Jorge Navarro knows one thing for sure about X Y Jet, and he knows what they're going to try to do in the Swale Stakes More
Albertrani Says Ready for Rye Has 'Stepped Forward'
Though Ready for Rye will make his graded stakes debut Saturday in the Fasig-Tipton Swale, the gelded son of City Zip is no stranger to good competition. More
Swale Draws Seven Headlined by Daredevil
Daredevil finally gets his sophomore season under way in Saturday’s Fasig-Tipton Swale Stakes. More
Night Prowler, Dubai Sky Headline Palm Beach
Night Prowler, a son of Giant’s Causeway, was gelded before his racing career got under way, but it led to improvement in his performance. More
Complete Listing of 2015 Triple Crown Nominations
Tampa Bay Derby Nominations
All Triple Crown PP's
TDP 2014 Wrapup
Here's the wrap of The Downey Profile 2014 Subscription Page info for the Triple Crown races. The Commish and Downey each selected California Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness -- and the Belmont Stakes, too. Click to read all the details here.
Read About The Downey Profile
Kentucky Derby 2015 Future Wager
Kentucky Derby 141: May 2, 2015
Preakness Stakes 140: May 16, 2015
Belmont Stakes 147: June 6, 2015
Downey in NTRA Poll
Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile will carry results here when the poll resumes.
How Our Selections Fared in Recent Years
How Our Selections Fared in the 2014 Triple Crown
The Commish and Downey: Triple Crown Races
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Triple Crown races appear only on our Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page -- along with The Downey Profile and other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.
Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby prep races, starting with the Lecomte Stakes, appear only on our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page.
To join the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page, and/or to join our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page, click here for credit card or here for PayPal.
ROAD WORK -- Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and Beyond
All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.
Bayerd breezed four on a muddy track in 52:40 (110/123) at OP.
Bold Conquest breezed four on a muddy track in 1.02:20 (8/78) at OP.
Chief Istan breezed four in 48:20 (3/30) at FG.
Gold Shield breezed four in 50:73 (29/31) at GP.
Gorgeous Bird breezed four in 49:95 (24/42) at PMM.
Hidden Danger breezed four on a muddy track in 49:60 (2/123) at OP.
Hootenanny breezed four in 49:00 (4/23) at TP.
Aldrin breezed four in 50:00 (28/40) at PMM.
Competitive Edge breezed five in 59:12 (1/8) at PBD.
Daredevil breezed four in 49:51 (20/29) at PBD.
Divining Rod breezed four in 50:00 (31/48) at TBD.
Great Stuff breezed five in 1.01:85 (2/8) at PMM.
I Spent It breezed five on a muddy track in 59:80 (1/10) at OP.
Indianaughty breezed four in 48:72 (10/26) at GP.
Lieutenant Colonel breezed four in 49:75 (23/40) at PMM.
Lord Commander breezed four on the training track in 50:87 (3/20) at BEL
Madefromlucky breezed five in 59:14 (2/8) at PBD.
Majestico breezed five on a good track in 1.02:40 (10/32) at OP.
Mr. Z breezed five on a good track in 1.03:80 (19/32) at OP.
My Johnny Be Good breezed five in 1.03:00 (15/22) at TBD.
Night Prowler breezed four on firm turf in 49:95 (17/20) at PMM.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 49:00 (14/40) at PMM.
Take Charge Brandi breezed four on a good track in 1.01:80 (3/32) at OP.
Tiznow R J breezed four on a sloppy track in 52:20 (18/25) at FG.
Watergate breezed four on the training track in 39:88 (7/7) at BEL.
Wisecracker breezed four in 48:75 (5/40) at PMM.
Conquest Typhoon worked five in 1.00:40 (3/15) at SA.
Cozmic One worked five in 1.00:60 (6/22) at SA.
El Kabeir breezed four on the training track in 50:10 (40/115) at BEL.
March breezed four on the training track in 49:59 (22/116) at BEL.
Midhmaar breezed four in 48:75 (3/42) at PMM.
Tough Customer breezed three in 37:60 (7/17) at FG.
War Story breezed four in 50:60 (17/42) at FG.
Ami's Flatter breezed five in 1.01:90 (11/25) at PMM.
Blame Jim breezed four in 47:66 (1/11) at PBD.
Carpe Diem breezed four in 49:57 (10/11) at PBD.
Cross the Line worked five in 1.01:80 (28/50) at GG.
Danzig Moon breezed five in 1.00:25 (5/25) at PMM.
First Down breezed four in 52:65 (44/44) at PMM.
Materiality breezed four in 49:28 (6/11) at PBD.
Ocean Knight breezed four in 49:95 (26/44) at PMM.
One Lucky Dane worked five in 1.00:20 (4/29) at SA.
Ostrolenka breezed three in 37:42 (2/11) at PBD.
Stand and Salute worked five in 1.02:60 (39/50) at GG.
Stanford breezed four in 49:28 (6/11) at PBD.
Toasting Master breeze four in 52:90 (70/73) at GP.
Wireless Future breezed four in 50:80 (45/67) at FG.
American Pharoah worked seven in 1.23:80 (1/7) at SA.
Bad Read Sanchez worked six in 1.14:40 (22/35) at SA.
Bench Warrant worked four in 46:60 (1/66) at SA.
Bolo worked six in 1.13:80 (10/35) at SA.
Classy Class breezed four on the training track in 49:12 (4/39) at BEL.
Dontbetonbruno breezed four on the training track in 1.03:43 (3/8) at BEL.
Ernest Shackleton worked four in 49:80 ( 77/101) at SA.
Firing Line worked five in 59:60 (7/131) at SA.
Iron Fist breezed four in 52:20 (3/4) at STT.
Jess's Dream breezed four in 52:00 (2/4) at STT.
Lord Nelson worked six in 1.13:00 (5/35) at SA.
Majestic Affair breezed four on the training track in 49:38 (8/39) at BEL.
Prospect Park worked five in 1.01:40 (71/131) at SA.
Pulmarack worked six in 1.14:20 (3/11) at SA.
The Gomper worked six in 1.12:40 (3/35) at SA.
Distant Kingdom breezed four in 48:80 (4/16) at FG.
Dortmund worked seven in 1.25:60 (1/1) at SA.
Hero Ten All worked five in 1.00:40 (1/4) at SA.
Metaboss worked five in 1.02:80 (82/88) at SA.
Nun the Less breezed five in 1.04:30 (3/8) at HUF.
Ocho Ocho Ocho worked six in 1.12:00 (1/12) at SA.
Tradesman breezed five in 1.02:95 (11/13) at PMM.
Chief Istan breezed three in 36:20 (1/6) at FG.
Conquest Bigluck E breezed five in 1.02:00 (1/2) at WND.
Hashtag Bourbon breezed four in 48:80 (10/29) at FG.
Pulmarack breezed six in 1.19:80 (11/11) at SA.
Bourbon Cowboy breezed four in 49:80 (7/18) at FG.
Lieutenant Colonel breezed four in 49:95 (20/42) at PMM.
Mr. Jordan breezed three in 36:80 (1/1) at GPW.
Aldrin breezed three in 37:00 (1/6) at PMM.
Decision Day breezed four on firm turf in 51:90 (18/22) at PMM.
Great Stuff breezed five in 1.02:45 (11/15) at PMM.
Lord Commander breezed four on the training track in 50:13 (12/74) at BEL.
Lucky Player breezed four in 50:80 (27/44) at FG.
March breezed four on the training track in 49:60 (5/74) at BEL.
My Johnny Be Good breezed six in 1.15:40 (1/1) at TBD.
Night Prowler breezed four on firm turf in 52:60 (21/22) at PMM.
Ami's Flatter breezed five in 1.01:85 (4/17) at PMM.
Bad Read Sanchez worked six in 1.14:80 (5/6) at SA.
Bolo worked five in 59:60 (3/44) at SA.
Competitive Edge breezed four in 48:41 (5/19) at PBD.
Daredevil breezed four in 48:20 (1/19) at PBD.
Divining Rod breezed six in 1.14:60 (2/2) at TBD.
El Kabeir breezed four on the training track in 48:88 (3/34) at BEL.
Far from Over breezed four in 48:40 (3/19) at PBD.
First Down breezed four in 49:80 ( 16/42) at PMM.
I Spent It breezed four on a good track in 48:40 (1/183) at OP.
Lord Nelson worked six in 1.13:40 (6/13) at SA.
Madefromlucky breezed five in 1.00:19 (1/7) at PBD.
Materiality breezed five in 1.00:19 (1/7) at PBD.
Midhmaar breezed four in 49:75 (15/42) at PMM.
One Lucky Dane worked five in 59:80 (5/44) at SA.
Royal Son breezed four in 48:40 (3/19) at PBD.
American Pharoah worked six in 1.12:40 (2/30) at SA.
Another Lemon Drop breezed four in 50:00 (31/75) at FG.
Blame Jim breezed four in 47:93 (2/20) at PBD.
Carpe Diem breezed four in 1.01:21 (1/5) at PBD.
Danzig Moon breezed four in 49:15 (18/61) at PMM.
Firespike breezed five in 1.02:13 (3/32) at GP.
Firing Line worked four in 48:20 (10/71) at SA.
Ghost Bay breezed four in 50:00 (6/37) at LRL.
Grand Bili breezed five in 1.04:80 (12/21) GPW.
Honest breezed four in 49:40 (3/31) at GPW.
Nun the Less breezed four in 51:96 (86/94) at GP.
Ocean Knight breezed five in 1.01:95 (10/26) at PMM.
Prospect Park worked five in 1.03:80 (13/14) at SLR.
Souper Colossal breezed four in 50:20 (11/31) at GPW.
Stanford breezed four in 47:62 (1/20) at PBD.
Take Charge Brandi breezed five in 1.00:40 (1/16) at OP.
Task Force Glory breezed fiv in 1.02:13 (3/32) at GP.
Tennessee breezed four in 48:21 (3/20) at PBD.
The Gomper worked six in 1.14:40 (12/30) at SA.
Toasting Master breezed five in 1.03:93 (21/32) at GP.
Wisecracker breezed four in 49:45 (23/59) at PMM.
Vici breezed four in 49:80 (24/75) at FG.
Cyrus Alexander worked six in 1.03:00 (19/23) at SA.
Chief Istan breezed three in 37:00 (3/12) at FG.
Cozmic One worked four in 49:60 (23/34) at SA.
Distant Kingdom breezed five in 1.01:00 (2/20) at FG.
Dortmund worked four in 49:00 (19/34) at SA.
Majestic Affair breezed four on the training track in 49:01 (6/29) at BEL.
Ocho Ocho Ocho worked six in 1.12:20 (1/11) at SA.
Gorgeous Bird breezed four in 52:00 (13/13) at PMM.
Private Prospect breezed four on a good track in 47:40 (1/1) at OP.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 51:00 (11/13) at PMM.
Tough Customer breezed three in 37:20 (4/8) at FG.
Bluegrass Singer breezed three in 36:80 (2/3) at GPW.
Bolo worked three in 35:40 (2/11) at SA.
Cinco Charlie worked four in 49:60 (4/43) at HOU.
Great Stuff breezed four in 50:20 (28/49) at PMM.
Lord Nelson worked five in 59:60 (4/27) at SA.
My Johnny Be Good breezed five in 1.03:00 (13/18) at TBD.
A. Rod Again breezed five in 1.01:20 (13/29) at FG.
Bad Read Sanchez worked five in 1.00:20 (6/37) at SA.
Bluff breezed five in 59:80 (2/29) at FG.
Eagle breezed five in 1.01:00 (9/29) at FG.
Hero Ten All worked 49:60 (1/3) at SA.
Lucky Player breezed five in 1.01:20 (13/29) at FG.
Night Prowler breezed four on firm turf in 53:85 (32/43) at PMM.
One Lucky Dane worked four in 48:40 (13/63) at SA.
Pulmarack worked four in 48:20 (8/50) at SA.
Tiznow R J breezed four in 50:00 (30/50) at FG.
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to firstname.lastname@example.org.
After you subscribe, you can click here to sign in.
A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES: "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."
In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.
After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.
A Little About Us and Our Products
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.
While the web site has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.
Our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page covers our Four Lists that are constantly updated (130 horses listed at outset: Leading Names, Contenders, Wait and See, Watching), plus links to the specific lists horses entered in stakes races, Derby prep race selections, miscellaneous pre-race commentary, updates, prep race probables/possibles and the ever-important post-race quotes -- all conveniently linked from one page.