SUBSCRIBER NOTICES: Derby/Preakness/Belmont Subscription: We caught our second win and launched the Belmont Stakes Subscription Page on Wednesday with our Preakness Wrap-Up. Same username and password as before. Sign out and sign back in if necessary. You can look back at the Derby and Preakness Subscriptions from the Belmont page. Derby Trail Subscription Page: We launched a new Belmont Stakes Contenders page as a bonus.The Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case pages, with profiles of dozens of horses, are up to date including completed profiles and histories of all the Kentucky Derby horses on Looking Good.
In 2018, we have two Subscription Pages, the same format used in 2017: (1) The tried and true Kentucky Derby Subscription, which include the Preakness and Belmont Stakes at no extra charge, and (2) The Derby Trail Subscription Page. For fuller descriptions, please click either of the two links immediately below and/or scroll down. Further, to read in detail about The Downey Profile, click here. The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013
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Belmont Stakes Horses Training 7:20 am
Thursday, May 24 through Monday, June 4 at Churchill Downs
Belmont Stakes Probables and Possibles
Audible (T Pletcher), Bandua (D Weld), Blended Citizen (D O’Neill), Bravazo (D W Lukas),
Free Drop Billy (D Romans), Gronkowski (C Brown), Hofburg (B Mott), Justify (B Baffert)
Restoring Hope (Baffert), Tenfold (S Asmussen), Vino Rosso (Pletcher)
Continue to More Workouts
Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted
May 23, Fire When Ready five in 58:40 Handily 1/30 at SA
May 23, Gotta Go four in 48:20 Breezing 1/22 at CD
May 23, Zulfikhar five in 59:20 Handily 2/30 at SA
May 22, Ike four in 47:80 Handily 2/31 at SA
May 22, Restoring Hope five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/19 at CD
May 22, Solomini five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/19 at CD
May 21, Analyze It four in 49:05 Breezing 34/73 at BEL
May 21, Free Drop Billy four in 47:60 Breezing 1/51 at CD
May 21, Gidu four in 49:26 Breezing training track 43/79 at BEL
May 21, Mask four in 48:87 Breezing training track 18/68 at BEL
May 21, Promises Fulfilled four in 47:60 Breezing 1/51 at CD
May 21, Zing Zang four in 51:16 Breezing 29/29 at BEL
May 20, Afleet Ascent five in 59:80 Handily 4/45 at SA
May 20, Barry Lee five in 59:60 Breezing 3/23 at CD
May 20, Combatant five in 1.01:60 Breezing 15/23 at CD
May 20, Cove Blue four in 46:60 Breezing 1/57 at CD
May 20, Kanthaka four in 48:80 Handily 22/59 at SA
May 20, King Zachary four in 47:80 Breezing 9/57 at CD
May 20, Seven Trumpets five in 1.02:40 Breezing 18/23 at CD
May 20, The Tabulator five in 1.00:20 Breezing 1/19 at AP
May 19. Exclamation Point four in 48:40 Breezing 12/75 at CD
May 19, Ezmosh four in 48:40 Breezing 12/75 at CD
May 18, Givemeaminit four in 48:80 Breezing 19/49 at CD
May 18, He Takes Charge five in 59:80 Breezing 2/10 at KEE
May 18, Hofburg four in 49:32 Breezing 6/50 at SAR
May 18, Slot four in 48:89 Breezing 1/50 at SAR
May 18, Strike Power four in 49:33 Breezing good track 2/6 at BEL
May 18, Telekinesis five in 59:60 Breezing 1/10 at KEE
May 16, Sea Foam five in 1.02:87 Breezing good track 1/2 at BEL
May 16, Talent Scout five in 1.01:00 Handily 12/25 at SA
May 15, Seven Trumpets five in 59:80 Breezing 3/31 at CD
May 14, Justaholic four in 50:80 Breezing sloppy track 1/2 at MTH
May 14, Restoring Hope four in 47:00 Breezing 1/23 at CD
May 14, Solomini four in 47:20 Breezing 2/23 at CD
May 14, Tenfold four in 49:40 Breezing 13/23 at CD
May 13, Bravazo four in 50:60 Breezing 42/47 at CD
May 13, Diamond King five in 1:01.51 Handily sloppy track 1/2 at PRX
May 13, Plainsman four in 48:80 Breezing 17/39 at KEE
May 13, Quip four in 48:20 Breezing 6/21 at KEE
May 13, Telekinesis four in 46:80 Breezing 1/40 at KEE
May 13, The Tabulator four in 51:00 Breezing synthetic 14/15 at AP
May 13, Title Ready four in 49:20 Breezing 15/47 at CD
May 12, Catholic Boy four in 48:80 Breezing good turf 3/5 at Bridlewood Farm
May 12, Analyze It four in 50:55 Breezing training track 59/94 at BEL
May 12, Ax Man six in 1.12:80 Handily 1/8 at SA
May 12, Barry Lee five in 1.00:00 Breezing 6/41 at CD
May 12, Exclamation Point four in 48:20 Breezing 9/50 at CD
May 12, Ezmosh four in 48:00 Breezing 8/50 at CD
May 12, Gidu four in 49:00 Breezing training track 12/95 at BEL
May 12, He Takes Charge five in 59:80 Breezing 1/15 at KEE
May 12, Heck Yeah five in 1.00:40 Handily 7/40 at SA
May 12, Old Time Revival five in 57:60 Handily 1/23 at LRL
May 12, Run Away five in 1.00:80 Handily 13/40 at SA
May 11, Pony Up four in 48:89 Breezing training track 17/43 at BEL
May 11, Strike Power four in 47:01 Breezing 2/38 at BEL
May 10, Soutache four in 47:55 Breezing 1/10 at BEL
May 9, World of Trouble three in 38:84 Breezing 4/5 at BEL
May 8, Justaholic five in 1.01:00 Breezing 1/2 at MTH
May 8, Peace three in 36:00 Handily 1/17 at SA
May 8, Sea Foam five in 1.01:37 Breezing 1/8 at BEL
May 8, Seven Trumpets five in 1.00:60 Breezing 5/19 at CD
May 8, Talent Scout four in 48:00 Handily 3/15 at LRC
May 8, Telekinesis five in 1.00:20 Breezing 2/27 at KEE
May 7, Ax Man five in 1.00:40 Handily 12/43 at SA
May 7, Gotta Go four in 50:20 Breezing 13/15 at CD
May 7, Hollywood Star five in 50:00 Breezing 3/5 at FAI
May 7, Mitole five in 1.01:60 Breezing 15/23 at CD
May 7, Tenfold five in 1.00:20 Breezing 7/23 at CD
May 7, Zing Zang four in 49:65 Breezing 23/33 at BEL
May 6, Analyze It six in 1.02:12 Breezing firm inner turf 8/9 at BEL
May 6, Diamond King four in 50:21 Handily 11/18 at PRX
May 6, Engage four in 49:45 Breezing training track 17/50 at BEL
May 6, Gidu four in 49:60 Breezing 4/6 at PBD
May 6, Kanthaka six in 1.14:60 Handily 2/4 at SA
May 6, Reride five in 1.01:60 Breezing sloppy track 5/6 at CD
May 6, Title Ready five in 1.01:60 Breezing sloppy track 5/6 at CD
May 5, Ayacara five in 1.01:40 Handily 19/45 at SA
May 5, Barry Lee four in 50:60 Breezing 41/47 at CD
May 5, Blended Citizen six in 1.16:00 Breezing 1/1 at CD
May 5, Ezmosh four in 48:20 Breezing 8/47 at CD
May 5, He Hate Me four in 47:80 Breezing 2/47 at CD
May 5, High North five in 1.00:00 Breezing 3/36 at CD
May 5, Shivermetimbers six in 1.12:60 Handily 1/14 at SA
May 5, Strike Power four in 48:79 Breezing 9/30 at BEL
May 4, Pony Up four in 48:20 Breezing 7/48 at CD
May 4, Ruler of the Nile four in 50:30 Breezing 1/3 at PBD
May 4, Super Sermon five in 1.01:65 Breezing 1/2 at PBD
May 3, City Plan four in 49:40 Handily 1/5 at SA
May 3, Quip four in 48:00 Breezing 2/27 at KEE
May 2, Justaholic five in 1.03:46 Breezing 2/2 at PRX
May 1, New York Central, 51:00 Breezing 12/12 at CD
May 1, Peace six in 1.12:60 Handily 1/2 at SA
May 1, Sporting Chance three in 34:60 Breezing 1/5 at CD
May 1, Zulfikhar four in 47:00 Handily 1/28 at SA
April 30, Combatant four in 49.60 Breezing 8/19 at CD
April 30, Analyze It four in 49:71 Breezing training track 20/49 at BEL
April 30, Gotta Go five in 1.00:60 Breezing 1/13 at CD
April 30, Heck Yeah four in 49:20 Handily 14/33 at SA
April 30, Mitole four in 51:20 Breezing 16/19 at CD
April 30, Sea Foam five in 1.02:09 Breezing 4/8 at BEL
April 30, Tenfold five in 1.01:80 Breezing 9/13 at CD
April 30, Zing Zang five in 1.01:43 Breezing 1/8 at BEL
April 29, Hofburg four in 48.20 Breezing 9/73 at CD
April 29, Instilled Regard five in 1.00:80 Handily 3/62 at SA
April 29, Solomini six in 1.14:60 Handily 4/9 at SA
Continue to More Workout
Downey Profile subscribers to the Kentucky Derby service have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, Downey's in-depth post-race analyses of the Kentucky Derby prep races starting with the Risen Star Stakes, special NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!
Our Derby Trail Subscription Service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting in early February and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from trainers, jockeys and owners. We usually start out with about 100 horses on these lists. We started with 103 this year. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.
Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for the fifth straight year in 2018. Justify was among the Downey Profile Top 4 horses, as were second finisher Good Magic and third finisher Audible. The final Kentucky Derby workout by Justify was impressive, and that helped lead Downey to pick him right on top. Good Magic was in Downey's second spot for the cold exacta.
1. JUSTIFY (first)
2. GOOD MAGIC (second)
3. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
4. HOFBURG (seventh)
5. AUDIBLE (third)
6. BOLT D'ORO (twelfth)
The Commish had the winner picked in the second slot. He told Downey his top Derby pick had never run last before this year, so he thinks there's plenty of upside potential going forward.
1. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
2. JUSTIFY (first)
3. VINO ROSSO (ninth)
4. MY BOY JACK (fifth)
5. AUDIBLE (third)
Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for the fourth straight year in 2017. Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4, Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)
The Commish picked the winner right on top for the third time in four years:
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. HENCE (eleventh)
3. STATE OF HONOR (nineteenth)
4. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
5. TAPWRIT (sixth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were:
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)
For the first time, Downey put together a superfecta part wheel for subscribers. The cost for a $1 ticket was $88, and we were fortunate enough to see that bet hit and pay $542.10.
The Commish picked:
1. EXAGGERATOR (second)
2. NYQUIST (first)
3. MY MAN SAM (eleventh)
4. WHITMORE (nineteenth)
5. MO TOM (eighth)
The Commish stuck to his guns with Exaggerator in the Preakness, and he won the race.
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)
The Commish picked:
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FIRING LINE (second)
4. FROSTED (fourth)
5. CARPE DIEM (tenth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were:
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)
The Commish picked:
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. CANDY BOY (thirteenth)
3. INTENSE HOLIDAY twelfth)
4. DANZA (third)
5. CHITU (ninth)
The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. In 2018, the site went live before the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes and San Vicente Stakes.
We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.
Thanks for everything, and it's good see you again.
--By Dick Downey
THE DOWNEY PROFILE page is an introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby. Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners? They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a variety of factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.
At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.
In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.
To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to email@example.com.
A Brief History of Results
The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.
In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote:
--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."
Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.
In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.
In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.
In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.
In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.
In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.
In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.
All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES: "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."
In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.
In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in A workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it. In addition, Downey's top 5 selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five.
In 2016, Nyquist, a Top 4 horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.
In 2017, Downey went outside the Top Downey Profile 4 and selected the top Profile Buster Profile horse, Always Dreaming, to win the Kentucky Derby. The Downey Profile had produced the winner of the Kentucky Derby from its Top 4 in 30 of the last 44 runnings, but sometimes there are identifiable factors that can bust the Profile. After Downey witnessed the tremendous final Derby workout of Always Dreaming, he decided that 2017 might be one of those times.
A Little About Us and Our Products
The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, a sole proprietorship. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.
While the website has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.
Our Derby Trail Subscription was offered in 2015 and 2017 and did well, and it's back in 2018. That information was offered free in 2016 because illness in Downey's family shortened our coverage. This service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from and about trainers, jockeys, owners and the horses. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.