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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby Horses at The Downey Profile®


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RACING NEWS
Kentucky Derby Points  Triple Crown Nominees  Derby Future Wager  NTRA Polls


Coverage Complete
The Downey Profile, a seasonal website, has completed its coverage of the runup to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. It's been a year everyone will remember, and thanks for joining in.


2015 TDP Subscription Wrap
Greg "The Commish" Johnson and I don't consult before making selections. We each picked American Pharoaoh to win the Kentucky Derby. We followed that up by making him the top choice in the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes as well. More


American Pharoah Voted Top Horse of Any Age
Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner American Pharoah is the unanimous leader in the final NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll, and he received all but one first-place vote in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. More


American Pharoah to Be Paraded Stephen Foster Night
American Pharoah will be paraded before fans at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening's "Downs After Dark" when the Stephen Foster Handicap is set.
Photo by Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer Photography More


Belmont Handle Falls Short of Setting Record
Handle on several fronts was the second highest in history for the Belmont Stakes and supporting card. Although American Pharaoh was making another bid at the Triple Crown, wagering fell short of the mark set in 2014. More


Belmont Update: Sunday, June 7

Triple Crown Trophy Goes to American Pharoah
They say good things come to those who wait. After a 37 year drought, fans of Thoroughbred racing were finally rewarded when American Pharoah won the Triple Crown by taking the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes. More -- NOW WITH COMPLETE TRANSCRIPT OF WINNING CONNECTIONS COMMENTS

Last One Before the Race: American Pharoah Friday Gallop

Belmont Stakes Post Position Draw Quotes

Notice to Subscribers
In addition to free content and our traditional subscription product focusing on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, in 2015 we are offering a new product providing Research, Selections and More. This subscription contains our well-known Lists, Selections for all the Derby preps, a News/Commentary section and more. Read details here.


Complete Listing of 2015 Triple Crown Nominations
All Triple Crown PP's

TDP 2014 Wrapup
Here's the wrap of The Downey Profile 2014 Subscription Page info for the Triple Crown races. The Commish and Downey each selected California Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness -- and the Belmont Stakes, too. Click to read all the details here.

Read About The Downey Profile

Race Videos

Kentucky Derby 2015 Future Wager

Kentucky Derby 141: May 2, 2015

Preakness Stakes 140: May 16, 2015

Belmont Stakes 147: June 6, 2015

Downey in NTRA Poll
Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile will carries results here.

 

HANDICAPPING

How Our Selections Fared in Recent Years
The Commish
Dick's Picks

How Our Selections Fared in the 2014 Triple Crown
The Commish and Downey: Triple Crown Races

Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Triple Crown races appear only on our Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page -- along with The Downey Profile and other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.

Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby prep races, starting with the Lecomte Stakes, appear only on our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page.

To join the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes Subscription Page, and/or to join our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page, click here for credit card or here for PayPal.

 

ROAD WORK -- Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and Beyond

All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.

 

 

June 8
Bold Conquest breezed four in 49:00 (13/52) at CD.
Cross the Line worked five in 59:00 (1/21) at SA.
Iron Fist breezed five in 1.01:40 (12/21) at CD.
The Great War breezed four in 53:00 (10/11) at KEE.
Tough Customer breezed five in 1.02:00 (15/19) at CD.
Yockey's Warrior breezed four in 50:60 (38/52) at CD.

June 7
Conquest Curlinate breezed five in 1.00:80 (10/55) at WO.
Danzig Moon breezed five in 1.00:20 (2/55) at WO.
Divining Rod breezed five in 1.00:80 (1/2) at FAI.
Far Right breezed five in 1.01:40 (14/42) at CD.
Mr. Z breezed five in 1.00:00 (3/42) at CD.
Soul Driver breezed six on firm turf in 1.17:20 (1/4) at SA.

June 6
Bodhisattva breezed six in 1.17:00 (7/7) at LRL.
Tencendur breezed five on a good track in 1.02:45 (1/2) at BEL.
Texas Red worked six in 1.13:00 (7/18) at SA.
Unblunted worked four in 48:40 (14/45) at SA.
Unbridled Juan worked five on a a good training track in 1.01:85 (2/9) at BEL.
War Story breezed four in 48:60 (29/64) at CD.

June 5
Catalina Red breezed four in 54:86 (1/3) at GTC.
Gold Shield breezed three in 36:54 (2/17) at BEL.
Runhappy breezed four in 47:80 (1/10) at TTC.
Souper Colossal breezed five in 1.01:80 (8/26) at MTH.

June 4
Data Driven breezed five on the training track in 1.02:28 (3/6) at SAR.
Mubtraahij breezed three in 37:61 (14/22) at BEL.
Overcontrol breezed four on the training track in 49:59 (16/46) at BEL.
Unrivaled breezed five in 59:82 (1/10) at PRX.

June 3
Gorgeous Bird breezed five in 1.00:80 (1/6) at CD.

June 2
Defondo breezed three on firm turf in  37:80 (1/1) at CD.
Iron Fist worked four in 48:60 (11/20) at SA.
Keen Ice breezed four in 50.20 (23/25) at CD.
Wolf Man Rocket breezed five in 1.00:80 (3/8) at CD.

June 1
American Pharoah breezed five in 1:00.20 (6/20) at CD.
Bold Conquest breezed five in 1.00:80 (7/20) at CD.
Danzig Moon breezed four in 49:20 (24/42) at CD.
Hootenanny breezed five on yielding turf in 1.04:00 (1/2) at AP.

May 31
Cinco Charlie breezed four on the training track in 49:59 (20/41) at BEL.
Cross the Line breezed seven in 1.26:00 (1/1) at SA.
Cyrus Alexander worked five in 1.01:00 (16/51) at SA.
Far Right breezed four in 48:80 (9/51) at CD.
Gold Shield breezed four on firm turf in 50:45 (9/15) at BEL.
Prospect Park worked five in 1.01:60 (29/51) at SA.
Tiz Shea D breezed five on the training tack in 1.00:80 (1/10) at BEL.
Tough Customer breezed five in 1.02:00 (20/33) at CD.
Unblunted worked five in 59:20 (2/78) at SA.
Upstart breezed five on the training track in 1.03:06 (9/10) at BEL.

May 30
Classy Class breezed four in 50:10 (56/70) at BEL.
Cozmic One breezed five in 1.01:22 ( 8/23) at BEL.
Divining Rod breezed four in 50:20 (12/34) at FAI.
Firespike breezed five in 1.02:80 (4/5) at CD.
Frammento breezed four in 48.15 (1/60) at SAR.
Indianaughty breezed five in 1.01:60 ( 7/22) at CD.
March breezed four in 47:22 (3/70) at BEL.
Mr. Jordan breezed four in 47:00 (2/69) at MTH.
Mr. Z breezed four in 49:00 (25/68) at CD.
Mubtaahij breezed five in 1:01.05 (7/23) at BEL.
Soul Driver breezed six on firm turf in 1.17:40 (1/1) at SA.
Tale of Verve breezed five in 59.02 (1/23) at BEL.
Tencendur breezed five in 59:09 ( 2/23) at BEL.
Texas Red breezed five in 1.02:80 (30/32) at SA.
The Gomper breezed four on firm turf in 50:80 (2/5) at SA.
Tradesman breezed five in 1.01:55 (9/23) at BEL.
Where's the Moon breezed five in 1.01:00 (4/8) at ALB.

May 29
Carpe Diem breezed four in 47:66 (3/33) at BEL.
Competitive Edge breezed four in 48.87 (14/33) at BEL.
Frosted breezed four in 47.84 (6/33) at BEL
Madefromlucky breezed four in 47:84 (6/33) at BEL.
Materiality breezed four in (4/33) 47.78 at BEL.
Stanford breezed four in 47:78 (4/33) at BEL.
The Great War breezed four in 51:00 (18/20) at KEE.
Two Weeks Off breezed four on the training track in 48:05 (3/43) at BEL.
Wisecracker breezed four in 49:60 (8/8) at GTC.

May 27
Gorgeous Bird breezed five in 1.00:00 (2/22) at CD.
Keen Ice breezed six in 1.13:60 (1/2) at CD.
Mubtaahij breezed three in 38:05 (5/7) at BEL.
Ready for Rye breezed four in 51:12 (13/17) at BEL.

May 26
American Pharoah breezed four in 48.00 (5/22) at CD.
Overcontrol breezed three on the training track in 38:55 (7/8) at BEL.
Souper Colossal breezed five in 1.03:60 (8/8) at MTH.
Unrivaled breezed five in 1.00:54 (1/12) at PRX.
War Story breezed five in 1.01:40 ( 11/15) at CD.
Wisecracker breezed five in 1.00:40 (1/3) at GTC.
Wolf Man Rocket breezed four in 47:60 (1/22) at CD.

May 25
Bold Conquest breezed four in 50:80 (30/44) at CD.
Cyrus Alexander worked five in 1.00:00 (11/49) at SA.
Data Driven breezed four on the training track in 49:88 (10/31) at SAR.
Holy Boss breezed four on the training track in 51:24 (12/19) at BEL.
Tiznow R J breezed five in 1.00:60 (3/14) at CD.
Unbridled Juan breezed five in 1.01:00 (4/13) at WO.

May 24
Cinco Charlie breezed five in 1.00:55 (5/26) at BEL.
Conquest Typhoon breezed five in 59:60 (1/46) at WO.
Far Right breezed four in 48:20 (3/50) at CD.
Gold Shield breezed five in 1.00:34 (3/26) at BEL.
Mubtaahij breezed five in 1.03:16 (20/26) at BEL.
Night Prowler breezed five on firm inner turf in 1.02:71 (15/19) at BEL.
Ocho Ocho Ocho breezed five in 1.02:00 (35/46) at SA.
The Gomper worked five in 50:00 (18/20) at SA.
Tradesman breezed four in 50:77 (36/50) at BEL.
Unblunted breezed five in 1.00:00 (11/67) at SA.
Where's the Moon worked four in 48:20 (3/10) at ALB.

 

MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.

After you subscribe, you can click here to sign in.


A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

 

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

 

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, at no extra charge a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available with your Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. In 2014, Downey's top four picks for the Preakness ran 1-2-4-3 in order of selection.

A Little About Us and Our Products


The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.

While the web site has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.

Our Research/Selections and More Subscription Page covers our Four Lists that are constantly updated (130 horses listed at outset: Leading Names, Contenders, Wait and See, Watching), plus links to the specific lists horses entered in stakes races, Derby prep race selections, miscellaneous pre-race commentary, updates, prep race probables/possibles and the ever-important post-race quotes -- all conveniently linked from one page.

 

The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile, LLC. © 2003-2015

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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