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Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby Horses at The Downey Profile®


SUBSCRIBER NOTICE: The Downey Profile Rankings Were Updated April 21 With The Defection of Midnight Hawk. All Factors Are In Play.

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The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013.


 
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Daily Derby Update: Tuesday, April 22
Hoppertunity on the track at CD; Harry’s Holiday confirmed; Candy Boy on the grounds; Ring Weekend to work this…weekend; Florida horses come in. More


At Auction: Orb Shoe With All the Trimmings
A shadow box with a shoe worn by 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb will be offered on ebay from April 24 through May 4. Sale of the shadow box will benefit Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation. More


Claiborne Farm to Sponsor Breeders’ Futurity
Claiborne Farm has picked up the sponsorship of Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity on Oct. 4. The 1 1/16-mile race for 2-year-olds is contested annually in the fall and will return to a dirt surface this year following the removal of Polytrack at the Lexington race course. More


HRRN, Yahoo Sports Team Up for Triple Crown
Horse Racing Radio Network and Yahoo! Sports Radio have agreed for Yahoo to carry HRRN broadcasts of the 2014 Triple Crown on more than 70 Yahoo! Sports Radio affiliates across the United States. More


SUBSCRIBER NOTICE
The Downey Profile Rankings were updated April 21. All factors are in play. With the defection of Midnight Hawk, the Top 24 Derby points horses are listed. Contenders in the Top 20 could drop out; stay tuned. The Downey Profile is a completely objective way of measuring the probability of Kentucky Derby success.


Daily Derby Update: Monday, April 21

Updated Free Brisnet Past Performance Charts
Derby Contenders by Points
Oaks Contenders by Points

Daily Derby Update: Sunday, April 20

White Says 5-2 on California Chrome
Santa Anita oddsmaker Jon White says California Chrome is 5-2 on Kentucky Derby day in his book. More


Pletcher, Garofallo Send Out Derby Workers
Sunday morning, two Todd Pletcher Kentucky Derby hopefuls put in workouts: Intense Holiday and We Miss Artie, the latter one now with a Derby jockey assignment. Wildcat Red put in his penultimate Derby work at Gulfstream Park. More


Derby/Oaks Workouts: Live Stream from CD 8-9:00 ET

Our Handy Derby Points Chart w/ Defection of Midnight Hawk

Road to the Kentucky Derby Videos

Updated Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard

Mr Speaker Wins Final Derby Points Race
Shug McGaughey achieved the highest high winning the Kentucky Derby last year, took a one-two punch when Honor Code and Top Billing were knocked off the Derby Trail this year, then won the last points race on the Derby Road with Mr Speaker. More


Dynamic Impact Edges Midnight Hawk
Dynamic Impact, a nominee to the Triple Crown, won the Illinois Derby by a nose over heavy favorite Midnight Hawk. More


Kid Cruz Cruises to Tesio Victory
Julian Pimentel rated Kid Cruz off the pace into the far turn, then charged by his rivals to post an easy victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico. More


California Chrome: One Work Left
California Chrome worked four furlongs at Los Alamitos on Saturday, moving him a step closer to the Kentucky Derby. More


Maker Discusses Plans; Other Derby News
Vicar's in Trouble worked five furlongs, breezing, in 1:00.40 on Saturday at Trackside Louisville. Meanwhile, trainer Mike Maker was asked whether he’d have three starters in the Kentucky Derby. More


Cairo Prince Will Miss Derby
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said Saturday that Cairo Prince has sustained an ankle injury and will miss the Kentucky Derby. More


Ward Leaning to Preakness
Wesley Ward says he’s leaning away from the Kentucky Derby and toward the Preakness with Pablo Del Monte. More


Samraat, Uncle Sigh Step Closer to Derby
New York-breds Samraat and Uncle Sigh had their penultimate workouts for the Kentucky Derby Friday on separate tracks at Belmont Park. More


Dance With Fate Derby-Bound
Dance With Fate’s connections have opted in to the Kentucky Derby. More


Commanding Curves Works, Just In Case
Commanding Curve, ranked number 23 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, worked five furlongs work Friday at Churchill Downs. More


Downey in NTRA Poll
Dick Downey has been a voting member of the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls since early 2012. The Downey Profile carries results here.

BLOODHORSE.COM

Our Derby Trail race handicapping previews are featured weekly at the Bloodhorse.com Triple Crown Channel.

On our site, the previews are at Dick's Picks and the page of Greg "The Commish" Johnson.

Apart from race handicapping, look for stories about Kentucky Derby theory and issues.

HANDICAPPING

How Our Selections Fared

The Commish 
Dick's Picks

Dick's Picks and selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes appear only on our Subscription Page along with other information compiled on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. To read about The Downey Profile, please click here.

To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on the left sidebar, or click here.
To sign in, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here.
Trouble with your username or password? Write us at: thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com

ROAD WORK

Workouts on The Road to the Kentucky Derby,
Triple Crown and Beyond

All works are on fast dirt except as follows:
--Works on turf, off track or training track are indicated.
--Golden Gate, Keeneland, Ocala, Presque Isle Downs, Turfway Park, Woodbine workouts are on synthetic track except when noted.

 

 

April 22
Chelios worked four in :50:00 (10/10) at SA.
Global View breezed six in 1.13:00 (1/1) at CD.
Havana breezed five on the training track in 1.01:46 (2/8) at BEL.
Strong Mandate breezed four in :51:60 (10/14) at CD.

April 21
Bayern breezed four in 47:60 (2/46) at CD.
Chitu breezed four in :47:60 (2/46) at CD.
Gold Hawk breezed five in 1.01:40 (2/20) at CD.
Matador breezed four in :49:40 ( 17/46)  at CD.
Schoolofhardrocks worked five in 1:02.20 (33/38) at SA.
Talon’s of Tuscany breezed four in :50:00 (23/46) at CD.
Tapiture breezed five in 1.02:80 (14/20) at CD.

April 20
All Tied Up breezed four in :49:45 (5/9) at PMM.
Almost Famous breezed five in 1.00:20 (5/51) at CD.
Awesome Sky breezed five in 1.01:00 (7/51) at CD.
Can’thelpbelieving breezed four in :49:40 (20/31) at KEE.
Intense Holiday breezed four in :48:75 (3/9) at PMM.
Shared Belief worked three in :35:80 (2/27) at SA.
We Miss Artie breezed five in 1.01:00 (1/2) at PMM.
Wildcat Red breezed four in :48:69 (11/42) at GP.

April 19
California Chrome breezed four in :47:80 ( 7/27) at LA.
Candy Boy worked five in :59:80 (1/15) at SA.
Cleburne breezed five in 1.02:00 (27/47) at CD.
Clovelly breezed four in :49:00 (65/113) at KEE.
Coup de Grace breezed four on the training track in :48:71 (23/78) at BEL.
Craftsman worked five in 1.00:80 (8/49) at SA.
Edison breezed four in :49:40 (30/62) at CD.
Kobe’s Back breezed four in :49:80 (26/45) at SA.
Mexikoma breezed four in :48:20 (2/18) at FAI.
Schivarelli breezed four in :48:60 (12/62) at CD.
Son of a Preacher breezed four in :49:20 (25/62) at CD.
Storming Inti breezed four in :47:80 (21/113) at KEE.
Tamarando worked six on firm turf in 1.13:00 ( 1/3) at SA.
Vicar’s in Trouble breezed five in 1.00:40 (2/14) at CDT.

April 18
Arctic Slope breezed five in :59:80 (8/25) at KEE.
Bashart breezed five in 1.02:00 (1/2) at PAY.
Commanding Curve breezed five in 1.00:40 (5/13) at CD.
Hoppertunity worked five in 1.00:20 (10/62) at SA.
Kristo worked four in :48:00 (4/10) at SA.
Samraat breezed four in :49:12 (8/19) at BEL.
Uncle Sigh breezed five on the training track in 1:00.31 (1/22) at BEL.

April 17
General a Rod breezed five in :59:80 (1/4) at CDT.
Spot breezed four in :48:95 (8/11) at PMM.
Tonalist breezed five in 1.03:40 (5/6) at PAY.
Wicked Strong breezed four on the training track in :49:62 (14/28) at BEL.

April 16
Best Plan Yet breezed five in 1.01:60 (2/3) at CRC.
C. Zee breezed five in 1.00:80 (1/3) at CRC.
Global View breezed four in :50:40 (4/6) at KEE.
I’ll Wrap It Up worked five in 1.01:80 (24/32) at SA.
Social Inclusion breezed three in :35:04 (2/9) at CRC.

April 15
Gold Hawk breezed five in 1.01:80 (3/12) at CD.
Shared Belief worked three in :38:40 (2/2) at GG.

April 14
Deceived breezed four on the training track in :48:90 (18/65) at BEL.
Global Strike breezed four in :47:55 (2/20) at PMM.
Poker Player breezed four in :49:60 (15/16) at KEE.
Solitary Ranger breezed four in :48:80 (9/16) at KEE.

April 13
Cairo Prince breezed four in :48:60 (2/17) at PMM.
Can’thelpbelieving breezed four in :47:80 (23/79) at KEE.
Chitu worked five in 1.00:80 (16/51) at SA.
Constitution breezed four in :50:60 (17/17) at PMM.
Divine Oath breezed four in :48:60 (47/79) at KEE.
Edison breezed four in :50:20 (24/31) at PMM.
Havana breezed four on the training track in :50:42 (47/62) at BEL.
Intense Holiday breezed four in :48:90 ( 7/17) at PMM.
Midnight Hawk worked six in 1.13:60 (7/17) at SA.
Sassicaia breezed four on the training track in :48:27 (4/62) at BEL.
We Miss Artie breezed four in :48:90 (7/17) at PMM.

April 12
Enterprising worked five in 1.00:80 (17/65) at SA.
Craftsman worked four in :48:60 (17/41) at SA.
Matuszak breezed four in :48:65 (9/19) at BEL.
Royal Banker worked five in 1.02:40 (50/65) at SA.
Tamarando worked five in 1.01:80 (36/65) at SA.
Vicar’s in Trouble breezed four in :48:20 (3/12) at CDT.

April 11
Ami’s Holiday breezed six in 1.13:80 (1/2) at KEE.
Bashart worked five on firm turf in 1:02.00 (1/3) at PAY.
Joint Custody breezed five in 1.01:80 (2/8) at LRL.

April 10
All Tied Up breezed five in 1.01:90 (1/10) at PMM.
Chas’s Legacy breezed five in 1.01:60 (5/14) at CD.
Chelios worked three in :36:20 (9/19) at SA.
Commanding Curve breezed four in :48:20 (6/24) at CD.
Rise Up breezed four in :48:80 (11/24) at CD.
Spot breezed four in :47:85 (3/9) at PMM.

April 9
Papa Turf worked four in :48:20 (1/1) at SA.

April 8
Kendall’s Boy breezed four in :50:20 (5/9) at CD.
Roger Rocket breezed four in :50:40 (10/15) at SA.
Strong Mandate breezed three in :37:00 (2/4) at OP.

April 7
Asserting Bear breezed four in :48:00 (11/46) at KEE.
Casiguapo breezed three in :34:80 (1/4) at KEE.
Coltimus Prime breezed five in 1.01:20 (5/16) at KEE.
Conquest Titan breezed four in :47:40 (1/28) at CD.
Deceived breezed three on the training track in :36:17 (1/16) at BEL.
Demander breezed four in :49:20 (9/28) at CD.
Global Strike breezed four in :48:00 (1/15) at PMM.
Gold Hawk breezed four in :51:40 (25/28) at CD.
No Nay Never breezed four in :49:00 (28/46) at KEE.
Poker Player breezed four in :48:40 (19/46) at KEE.
Solitary Ranger breezed four in :47:40 (4/46) at KEE.
Tapiture breezed four in 50:80 (2/2) at OP.
Top Fortitude worked four in :49:00 (3/31) at SA.

April 6
Baratti breezed four on the training track in :48:15 (1/96) at BEL.
Bayern worked seven in 1.23:80 (1/5) at SA.
Big Bazinga breezed four in :47:60 (8/63) at KEE.
Can’thelpbelieving breezed four :49.00 (38/63)
Commissioner breezed four in :49:05 (8/24) at PMM.
Danza breezed four in :49:05 (8/24) at PMM.
Divine Oath breezed four in :50:60 (22/24) at PMM.
Edison breezed four in :50:10 (18/24) at PMM.
Extrasexyhippszter worked four in :46.00 (2/63) at KEE.     
Gala Award breezed four in :49:25 (11/24) at PMM.
Havana breezed four on the training track in :50:03 (50/96) at BEL.
Monopolize breezed four in :50:60 (22/24) at PMM.
Mr Speaker worked four in :46:20 (3/63) at KEE.
Ride On Curlin breezed seven in 1.26:80 (1/1) at OP.
Rum Point worked four in :49:40 (35/47) at SA.
Sheltowee’s Boy breezed five in 1.01:60 (3/12) at OP.
Tamarando worked five on firm turf in 1.02:40 (5/5) at SA.
Vinceremos breezed four in :49:25 (11/24) at PMM.

April 5
Ami’s Holiday breezed five in 1.02:20 (46/57) at KEE.
Bobby’s Kitten breezed five in 1.00:20 (8/57) at KEE.
Bourbonize breezed four in :48:00 (3/43) at OP.
Dance with Fate worked five in 1.01:40 (8/24) at SA.
Harry’s Holiday breezed five in 1.01:60 (1/1) at CD.
Mexikoma breezed four in :51:85 (35/35) at PMM.
Pablo Del Monte breezed six in 1.13:00 (1/6) at KEE.
Sassicaia breezed four in :48:75 (6/35) at PMM.
Scotland breezed five in 1.01:00 (1/6) at FAI.

April 4
Bashart breezed four in :49:00 (1/6) at PAY.
Chelios worked six in 1.13:60 (8/21) at SA.
Coastline breezed five in 1.00:40 (2/19) at KEE.
Craftsman worked four in :49:20 (39/70) at SA.

April 3
Chitu worked four in :46:40 (2/40) at SA.
Matuszak worked four on the training track in :48:69 (9/61) at BEL.
Midnight Hawk worked four in :46.00 (1/40) at SA.
Papa Turf worked six in 1.15:00 (16/17) at SA.
Schoolofhardrocks worked four in :49:40 (28/40) at SA.
Shadow Banking breezed four in :50:00 (10/16) at PMM.
Wicked Strong breezed three on the training track in :37:26 (5/21) at BEL.

April 2
Global View breezed three in :38:00 (3/4) at KEE.
Undertaker breezed five in 1.00:09 (1/4) at PRX.

April 1
Coltimus Prime breezed five in :58:40 (1/4) at PMM.
Medal Count breezed five in 1.00:38 (7/26) at GP.
Schivarelli breezed four on the training track in :47:32 (1/13) at BEL.
Smack Smack breezed three in :37:00 (2/4) at OP.
Strong Mandate breezed five in 1.00:80 (5/21) at OP.
Uncle Sigh breezed four on the training track in :47:61 (1/2) at BEL.



 

 


MISSION STATEMENT

THE DOWNEY PROFILE page: An introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of over a dozen factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click the Join Now Horseshoe on left sidebar, or click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to thedowneyprofile@thedowneyprofile.com.

After you subscribe, click the Sign In Horseshoe on the left sidebar or click here.


A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

Preakness/Belmont Package

After the Kentucky Derby, a special Preakness/Belmont Stakes Membership Package will be available. Loaded with statistics from runnings of both stakes since 1973, this Subscription Page is designed to reveal trends in the second two legs of the Triple Crown; and DICK'S PICKS  and PICKS FROM THE COMMISH are offered. This product will be online after the Kentucky Derby.

A Little About Us

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, LLC. It's a seasonal web site, running from late January through the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet. Each Winter and Spring, the site focuses on the The Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. For the 12th consecutive year, The Downey Profile is featured on Bloodhorse.com's Triple Crown Mania Channel.

While the web site has extensive free information updated daily, the Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby prep races starting in late January; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby.

 

The Downey Profile is owned by The Downey Profile, LLC. © 2003-2014

The Downey Profile® was awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. Renewed 2013.

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