DICK'S PICKS FOR KENTUCKY DERBY 152

Posted May 1, 2026

It seems like every Kentucky Derby is preceded by a debate about whether there will be a hot early pace, and this one is no different. In my opinion, the early pace will be on the fast side, say, under 47 seconds for the opening half-mile, at which point the field will start running up the backstretch. The pace may be 1:11 or less for the opening three-quarters, which is six furlongs for the uninitiated. At that point the field will be heading into the far turn, and the stalkers and closers will be unwinding their punch. This scenario would set up my top selections. Based on decades of historical data, it is likely the winner will be on the lead, or close to it, by the time it reaches mid-stretch, which is an eighth of a mile from the finish line.

Sample trifecta bets follow the picks.

Notes in post position order

1 RENEGADE (4-1) He is the top 3-year-old in the Western Hemisphere in many books, but can he overcome post 1? Sure, the new starting gate lessens the disadvantage of the old setup. Post 1 no longer sits parallel to a line that runs behind the inner rail. That's a big improvement. But it doesn't change the fact that 19 horses to Renegade's right will be jockeying to their left in efforts to avoid going wide into the first turn. That often creates chain-reaction bumping and traffic trouble. (“Known Agenda broke okay and everybody came over and squeezed him back," trainer Pletcher recently told David Grening of Daily Racing Form.) Maybe the field will string out right off the bat and jockey Ortiz can find room to overcome the post with this hard-charging closer. If anyone can, it's Irad.

2 ALBUS (30-1) The Wood Memorial winner has no early speed and looks too slow, but he certainly doesn't mind kickback, and he has stamina. Maybe a minor position if the race falls apart.

3 INTREPIDO (50-1) He could help set up a lively early pace. It's no secret the stated intention of his people is to be on the lead early in the Kentucky Derby. Intrepido ran 12-second furlongs at four of five calls and finished in under 38 seconds in the Santa Anita Derby -- but faded badly in the stretch to finish fourth, beaten 10 lengths. He is on a Triple Crown Fantasy League team run by Byron King and me, but in my opinion he has no chance of hitting the board after working four furlongs in 45 seconds at Churchill Downs on April 26. The move was a good two seconds faster than the the next-fastest work that day at the distance. Spits were 11.60, 22.60, 45.00 (1/71), out five in 57.00, six 1:10.20. That is just too fast, and trainer Mullins said he was not happy about it. 

4 LITMUS TEST (30-1) Baffert trainee is expected to be part of the pace as far as I can tell. Kibitzers on X say jockey Garcia is likely to wipe out anything to his left -- or to his right-- leaving the gate. I can't buy that; it's too speculative. Regardless, despite Litmus Test's fast work at Churchill Downs, I can't use him. His 3-year-old form has regressed from his 2-year-old form. 

5 RIGHT TO PARTY (30-1) Scratched Friday morning.

6 COMMANDMENT (6-1) Full disclosure, he is on a Triple Crown Fantasy League team run by Byron King and me. I vote in the weekly NTRA Thoroughbred poll, and I included Commandment in the first Top 3-Year-Old ballot of the year based on the support he received in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3. (https://www.ntra.com/wp-content/uploads/Polls-week1-by_voter-2026.pdf)  (https://www.thedowneyprofile.com/derby-future-wager) 
There's a lot to like about this son of Into Mischief: his alpha-horse mindset, his determination, his physicality, his intelligence, his consistency, and his will to win. When he is on the track, he acts like he owns it. Having two speed horses to his inside should help him get position going into the first turn. He doesn't care about kickback. His gallop-out to the track kitchen after his last workout, a favorite Derby angle of mine, was awesome. And he acts like he feels good in the mornings. The rumor mill Wednesday said Commandment will be scratched. If the track vets let him run, I think there is no reason to believe anything is wrong. He is one of the two horses I like best.

7 DANON BOURBON (20-1) The talented Kellie Reilly at TwinSpires loves this horse. She talked at length about him April 28 on live TV. He is bred in Kentucky and is bred for the distance. A total wild card that could make or break a lot of exotic tickets. Here's a link to Kellie's erudite written assessment: https://www.twinspires.com/edge/racing/kentucky-derby/kentucky-derby-international-scouting-report-danon-bourbon/ I don't know what to do with him, so I probably will not use him on my tickets.

8 SO HAPPY (15-1) He ran 12-second furlongs and finished in under 38 seconds in the Santa Anita Derby. I am not put off by the fact that his sire, Runhappy, was a top sprinter. Runhappy's sire, Super Saver, won the 2010 Kentucky Derby. My issue with So Happy is that he does not appear to be fully tested. He easily put away Potente, a horse that didn't want the lead, to win the Santa Anita Derby. It just seemed too easy. But, and it's a significant but, So Happy was given some great figures for that effort. I have trouble getting fired up about him, but am afraid to leave out. Every year there is this type -- if I leave him out he'll beat me and if I use him he'll run seventh. What is a handicapper to do.

9 THE PUMA (10-1) He is known to start a bit flat-footed, and where he is located running into the first turn may very well turn on how The Puma exits the gate. With early speed on both sides of him, will he need to take dirt or will he get outside of the speed? According to his jockey, The Puma does not like kickback. “The distance is not the question. I think the key about him is keep him out of trouble, not too much kickback,” jockey Castellano said. “At some point you have to save ground, but he’s a better horse with a clear trip.” If getting a clear trip means running wide all the way around the track, it's hard for me to see him winning. But he's a fighter and could hit the board. In addition, The Puma is the top choice of James Scully, an excellent handicapper.

10 WONDER DEAN (30-1) In my opinion he is too slow to win. This is a Kentucky Derby that, in the opinion of trainer Chad Brown, could be won by several different horses. I don't think Wonder Dean is one of them. I prefer several others. But as we know, it's a horse race and anything can happen.

11 INCREDIBOLT (20-1) He ran 12-second furlongs and finished in under 38 seconds in the Virginia Derby. His best career effort came in that race run at one turn on a track that was playing fast (1:47.76) just like it was last year when American Promises (1:46.41 ) won before finishing 16th in the Kentucky Derby. The latter one ran close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby until the second turn finished him off. I'm concerned about something like that happening to Incredibolt. Yes, he won the Street Sense at Churchill Downs, but that edition of the Street Sense turned out to be the antithesis of a key race on the road to this Kentucky Derby.

12 CHIEF WALLABEE (8-1) I participate in the NTRA poll, and I voted for this horse in my Top 10 on the first Top 3-Year-Old ballot of the year based on the support he received in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3. See links at #6 above. Some folks believe he is this year's wise-guy horse, and those types never win the Derby. I am not convinced he's the 2026 wise-guy horse. I'm not sure there is one this year. Anyway, Chief Wallabee has been training super at Churchill Downs following his narrow loss in the Florida Derby. According to jockey Alvarado, there was an absence of a mild kick from Chief Wallabee once the colt was turned loose in that race only to be edged by Commandment and The Puma. The addition of blinkers could help propel the lightly-raced Chief Wallabee through traffic, and he has a real shot to give Alvarado and trainer Mott back-to-back Derby wins.

13 SILENT TACTIC (20-1) Scratched Wednesday morning much to my chagrin. He is on a Triple Crown Fantasy League team run by Byron King and me. 

14 POTENTE (20-1) This son of Into Mischief is a $2.4 million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling purchase. In the Santa Anita Derby he unexpectedly went to an early lead before fading in the stretch behind winner So Happy. Like pretty much everything else in the Santa Anita Derby, he ran 12-second furlongs at least four of the five calls. His opening splits at Santa Anita were 23.03, 46.79 and 1:11.11. In his third workout since the Santa Anita Derby, he flashed a 57.80 breeze at Churchill Downs with a six furlong out time in 1:10.40. In contrast, his second work after the Santa Anita Derby was six furlongs in 1:13.20. I theorize Baffert sees a fast pace unfolding and wants Potente to be part of the second flight. Hard to read. Threat to hit the board.

15 EMERGING MARKET (15-1) Despite the fact he has only raced twice, I'm a fan. Emerging Market was tabbed as a Derby prospect last year by trainer Brown before being sidelined by pneumonia. The son of Candy Ride is mentally mature, a big plus. I am impressed by the fact he ran fast early and still finished strong to win the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Brown is known to bypass the Kentucky Derby and wait for the Preakness when he feels his horse is not quite up to the task. He chose to run Emerging Market in the Derby. Brown is verbal about how well Emerging Market is doing, always a good sign with this particular trainer. Contender.

16 PAVLOVIAN (30-1) Barely beaten by Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby, the California-bred son of Pavel is playable underneath but I cannot see him winning. Owner Reddam and trainer O'Neill teamed to win the Run for the Roses twice, and Reddam is reportedly jetting in to see if he can get a third. Despite his 30-1 morning line, Pavlovian is difficult to completely discount due to his highly competitive nature and the fact that his sire's sire (Creative Cause) and damsire (Bellamy Road) were top 3-year-olds in their own right.

17 SIX SPEED (50-1) He looks to be one that could take or contest a lively early pacde, but most of us will be shocked if he takes that speed all the way through the stretch.

18 FURTHER ADO (6-1) Full disclosure, he is on a Triple Crown Fantasy League team run by Byron King and me. I voted for him in the initial NTRA poll this year based on his 20-length maiden-breaker going two turns at Keeneland last fall. I am really struggling differentiating the chances of Further Ado and Commandment. Further Ado has a lot going for him. He ran 12-second furlongs and finished in under 38 seconds in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, which he won by 11 lengths, albeit a field with modest talent. He appears to be more than a single-track phenomenon. After he broke his maiden at Keeneland, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs last November despite a regression in his speed figures. He's been training brilliantly at Churchill Downs since he was shipped from Keeneland after the Blue Grass. As of this writing, with the scratches of two horses to his inside, he'll break from post 16 outside a lot of early speed. He likes to run forwardly but not on the early lead, and I can envision him tracking Emerging Market early on, establishing good position around the first turn, and getting in gear on the far turn. Huge shot.

19 GOLDEN TEMPO (30-1) I like this horse. He is always in the mix at the finish line. He ran 12-second furlongs and finished in under 38 seconds in the Louisiana Derby, where he was narrowly beaten after diving several paths over to the rail in mid-stretch. A drawback, at this writing, is that he's in post 17. That might not work for a horse with little early speed that needs to save ground. Playable on the bottom of the superfecta or perhaps better if he catches a break.

20 FULLEFFORT (20-1) Scratched Thursday morning. 

21 GREAT WHITE (50-1) He may be part of a hot early pace, but his past performances do not indicate he has much of a shot.

22 OCELLI (50-1) Although he ran "12s" at four of five calls in the Virginia Derby, Ocelli has not been competitive when facing the better horses in this field. He was third in the Wood Memorial, which was a slowly-run race.

23 ROBUSTA (50-1) He drew in Friday morning after the scratch of Right to Party. Part of the early speed, he held on for second to Potente in the San Felipe. In the Santa Anita Derby he was again in the early mix but faded to seventh and last, beaten 16 lengths. Like Intrepido, Robusta ran "12s" at four of five calls in the Santa Anita Derby but faded badly in the stretch.

DICK'S PICKS
MY TOP TWO IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE
COMMANDMENT
FURTHER ADO

NEXT CHOICES
EMERGING MARKET
RENEGADE
CHIEF WALLABEE

HARD TO LEAVE OUT
GOLDEN TEMPO
PAVLOVIAN
POTENTE
SO HAPPY
THE PUMA

A $1 trifecta bet using these selections would look like this and cost $64 (2x4x8=64 bets).

6, 18

with

1, 6, 12, 15, 18

with

1, 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19

A $1 trifecta bet adding Renegade to the top line would look like this and cost $96 (3x4x8=96 bets).

1, 6, 18

with

1, 6, 12, 15, 18

with

1, 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19

GOOD LUCK, and thank you for reading Dick's Picks.