DICK'S PICKS FOR KENTUCKY DERBY 151
By Dick Downey

Posted May 1, 2025

Updated May 2, 2025 at 11:49 a.m. ET

I wrote detailed information about every horse in the field in the Overview I posted on Monday. A lot of reference material is there as well. Here's a link for easy reference.

The selections are good rain or shine. We anticipate a fast track, but the selections have good wet ratings.

May 2: Dick's Picks are updated after Grande's scratch.

May 2 RUMOR MILL HORSES: American Promise jogged two miles at 5:15 under Tayja Smith followed by his daily grazing session behind Barn 42. Trainer Lukas said American Promise may jog in the morning. Owen Almighty galloped a mile and three-eighths under Antonio Orellano at 7:50. Trainer Lynch said he would not go to the track in the morning.Render Judgment galloped during the 7:45-8 training window under Robby Albarado.

May 2, 9:00 a.m. ET: Grande was scratched by a state veterinarian. Owner Repole says the horse has tested clean for a foot issue, he's fine, and that the decision is confusing. We are told other scratches are coming. I hope to know more soon and will update this page after the dust settles.

May 2, 8:25 a.m. Rodriguez did not play a part in Dick's Picks posted yesterday morning. I am thinking about how the announcement of his defection last night affects the race shape and will revisit Dick's Picks this morning. Obviously, one early speed horse is out, other early speed horses remain in the field, and Baeza is in the race at post 20 unless Owen Almighty or another horse scratches.

This year's analysis is broken down among early speed, stalkers and closers. I am leaning toward a closer and a group of four stalkers that includes Journalism.

Early Speed

Citizen Bull (#1) has worked four times since his disastrous Santa Anita Derby, twice without blinkers. It was decided he will continue to race with blinkers, which turned out to be a fortuitous choice because he drew the rail. With that draw and the blinkers, he has to be sent, doesn't he? In two turn races Citizen Bull has pretty much gone 23 and change and 47 and change. He might have run faster than that in the Derby to avoid being hemmed in, bumped or whatever as the field, seeking good first-turn position, funnels in after the gates open. If he builds a lead he might hang on around both turns for a little piece at the wire, but I like others better.

Neoequos (#2) faces the same challenges as Citizen Bull from post 2 and as a result could help insure a solid early pace. However, his credentials don't shout a top five finish.

Rodriguez (#4) and Citizen Bull are owned by partnerships that are mostly overlapping and of course they have the same trainer. Above all else they will avoid a speed duel. Rodriguez has more breathing room than his stable mate. Will he take the early lead as jockey Smith has promised, or will Citizen Bull or something else set the pace? As between the two horses, and if all other things are equal, I would typically guess the one on the outside, but with Citizen Bull's need to avoid the pitfalls of post 1, he looks more likely.

In four starts at two turns, Rodriguez didn't get an early lead in two of them, and he produced sub-par figures. If he doesn't set the pace in the Kentucky Derby, can he win? Both his wins, including the Wood Memorial, came when he set the pace (46.20 in his maiden win, 47.40 in the Wood). Jockey Smith said that he discovered in the Wood Memorial Rodriguez just wants to be left alone, that he runs better if he isn’t bothered. Will being in a 20 horse field bother him? Probably not if he’s alone on the lead. Maybe so if he's not.

American Promise (#5) took six races to break his maiden. In his maiden win (first half in 47.40) he led at each call on a muddy track. Since blitzing the field in the one-turn Virginia Derby (45.40), he’s been off for seven weeks after trainer Lukas initially said he would probably run once more before the Derby. I have confidence about one thing: logic dictates American Promise will try to get the early lead. If it doesn't work out for him, there's always the Preakness.

One last thought about American Promise. I remember the 2002 Kentucky Derby when War Emblem and Proud Citizen finished 1-2 for Baffert and Lukas -- both at 20-1 odds -- after running 12s. Will American Promise and the Baffert horses get to the lead and slow the pace? Wouldn't that be to their advantage? It makes me crazy to think about 2002 happening again.

Admire Daytona (#6) ran on or right on top of the lead all the way through the UAE Derby to win by nose. He does not always run that way, and it is impossible to know how what he will do in this race. I am not using him in my selections because he did not finish off the UAE Derby very fast even though he won.

East Avenue (#12) has demonstrated an inability to perform well unless he has an early lead. He could do that if he's flying, and he is capable of running 46 and change. But if that is what happens, will he have enough energy left for the late running?

Owen Almighty (#20) has not demonstrated enough stamina to finish off the race, even if he does somehow get the lead. I don’t see him as much of a factor.

Stalkers

To my eye there are four stalkers, and any one of them could get the jump on the closers.

I look for Luxor Cafe (#7) to stalk and pounce coming out of the far turn. His devastating turn of foot could take him to the winner’s circle if his timing is right and his trip is clear. I’ve heard a knock that he hasn’t faced competition like this in Japan, but none of the Derby horses have faced this level of competition before.

I tend to think of Journalism (#8) as a closer, and he has been described as a closer, but his PPs reveal he is a stalker, which should help him avoid trouble. But he has a target on his back and ran into trouble running against only four horses in the Santa Anita Derby. To his credit, he overcame it. If there's a knock on him, it's that he's beaten a very small sample of horses in California, some of them more than once, where there's a limited supply of good stakes horses. A plus is that he's beaten the Baffert barn, with its seemingly unlimited resources, in all four of his wins. His only loss was his debut, the only one-turn race on his resume.

Grande (#10) has come a long way in a short time and still has upside potential. Trainer Pletcher is, in his own words, “cautiously optimistic“ about Grande. It has been said the real goal might be the Belmont Stakes. Assuming that is that is the case, Grande needs to run well in the Kentucky Derby to justify going in the Belmont. Pletcher's top horses are trained to run close to the pace. If Grande does that and gets the jump on the closers, it’s not hard to envision him having an impact.

Coal Battle (#16) could stalk, pick off horses in the turn and, if he has enough gas for the whole trip, put away some horses in the stretch. He has been showing controlled energy training at Churchill Downs. His calling card is his versatility, and he has a good turn of foot. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes setting a moderate pace on the lead. Next time out he won the Rebel Stakes when he was fifth after the first half-mile, eight lengths off the lead behind a lively pace. He was able to hold off Sandman, who was 13 lengths behind after a half-mile and narrowed the gap on the leader by 7 1/2 lengths in the next quarter-mile.

Baeza (#21) will break from the far outside post, but that could turn out to be post 16 if rumors pan out. From there he would have a better chance to get within a few lengths of the early pacesetter, which is his preferred style of running.

Closers

Final Gambit (#3) showed a devastating late kick in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, and jockey Machado says he might be better on dirt than synthetic. I became especially interested in Final Gambit when he was pulled up at the track kitchen in his final Derby workout. Ordinarily, I would like his inside post position draw, but Machado has commented sometimes Final Gambit does not run all that well when he's between horses. That comment down downgraded his chances in my book. However, Final Gambit is a play underneath. Machado is just going to have to work out the trip he needs.

Although he finished the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes slowly, Burnham Square (#9) earned a late pace figure just as good as that of Sandman's Arkansas Derby. His high dosage index (7.80), to which I made reference in my overview published Monday, give me pause about his ability to effectively get a mile and a quarter. To that point, Tuesday night I ran across a video of an interview with his exercise rider on X. He was articulate and seemed straightforward. After a discussion of Burnham Square's strengths, he mentioned the only concern is his stamina.

Flying Mohawk (#11) needs to improve quite a bit to make a dent in the race. It’s happened before and it could happen with him, but I have to go with others.

Stable mates Publisher (#13) and Tiztastic (#14) have shown an ability to grind on and pick up checks. Either one or both of them could hit the board, although I’m leaning more toward others. In my opinion, Publisher looks the better of the two based on recent workouts and his nine-furlong late pace figure of 87 compared to that of Tiztastic in his 9.5-furlong prep, an 81.

For whatever reason Render Judgment (#15) is catching money in early betting. He has alternated between closing and stalking. He has never shown the kind of speed figures that will get the job done in the Kentucky Derby. He has improved since he was a juvenile, but a Kentucky Derby win would be on a scale with Rich Strike.

Sandman (#17) has not lived up to his $1.2 million expectations, but he's close to coming into his own physically and mentally. Is he far enough along to win the Kentucky Derby? He apparently showed a bit of immaturity schooling in the paddock Tuesday, which is a concern, but at the same time all of these horse have some little something that could be better; and Sandman's appearances on the track have turned a lot of heads since arriving at Churchill Downs. Detractors point to him swerving out in the Arkansas Derby, but to my eye he was responding to a left-hand whip, not weakening.

Sandman needs an uninterrupted trip over a long distance. Jose Ortiz could turn post 17 to his advantage by staying outside of trouble. It would mean running a longer distance than some of them, but if can get Sandman in rhythm, those long legs will give him an advantage when the moment of truth arrives at the top of the stretch. Sandman is likely to keep running when many others have had enough.

Sovereignty (#18) was washy after galloping last week, but the issue dissipated over the weekend when he put in a nice workout although the gallop out did not measure up to that of Country House in 2019 for trainer Mott. Mott said he wasn't looking for a big gallop out this time. Sovereignty has good Brisnet late pace numbers, but his overall speed figures are not superior and he doesn’t rank well at all in Derby by the Speed Numbers (Section 5), where we examine four different methods of measuring speed. Despite all that, Sovereignty is the morning line second choice, presumably because he won the Street Sense at Churchill Downs in such dramatic fashion. What will the betters actually do when the serious money starts flowing?

Chunk of Gold (#19) ran a late pace Brisnet figure of 72. That makes him hard to endorse going in a race as long as the Kentucky Derby from such a poor post position. He's finished second in his last two races, and he is usable on the bottom.

DICK'S PICKS

I'm selecting SANDMAN in an attempt to upset JOURNALISM. The son of American Pharoah, LUXOR CAFE, could very well get it done, but BAEZA might outlast him. COAL BATTLE looks live, and I'm rooting for him and trainer Briley.

#17 SANDMAN
#8 JOURNALISM
#7 LUXOR CAFE
#10 GRANDE

#21 BAEZA
#16 COAL BATTLE

PLAY ON THE BOTTOM
#18 SOVEREIGNTY, #3 FINAL GAMBIT, #9 BURNHAM SQUARE, #1 CITIZEN BULL, #13 PUBLISHER, #14 TIZTASTIC

Sample trifecta tickets

7, 8, 17
with
7, 8, 10, 16, 17
with
1, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18 = 108 combinations (3x4x9)

_______________

7, 8, 10, 16, 17 box = 60 combinations

Selections from the Works show cast

Joe Kristufek's selections
BURNHAM SQUARE
JOURNALISM
SOVEREIGNTY
LUXOR CAFE
CITIZEN BULL

James Scully's selections
SANDMAN
SOVEREIGNTY
JOURNALISM
CITIZEN BULL
TIZTASTIC

Kaitlin Free's selections
JOURNALISM
LUXOR CAFE
SOVEREIGNTY
CHUNK OF GOLD
FINAL GAMBIT

Tony Calo's selections
JOURNALISM
SOVEREIGNTY
BURNHAM SQUARE
CITIZEN BULL
BAEZA

Kevin Kilroy's selections
BURNHAM SQUARE
LUXOR CAFE
JOURNALISM
COAL BATTLE
SANDMAN

Rosie Napravnik's Top Kentucky Derby Workouts
SOVEREIGNTY
JOURNALISM
RODRIGUEZ
AMERICAN PROMISE
EAST AVENUE