DOWNEY PROFILE KENTUCKY DERBY OVERVIEW

Posted April 28, 2025

PLEASE NOTE: I intend to post selections no later than Thursday morning. This section contains my thoughts about every Kentucky Derby horse, plus refererences to summaries and details of my research.

PROGRAM NUMBERS SHORT FORM
1 CITIZEN BULL (KY), M Garcia, B Baffert, 20-1
2 NEOEQUOS (FL), F Prat, S Joseph Jr, 30-1
3 FINAL GAMBIT (KY), L Machado, B Cox, 30-1
4 RODRIGUEZ (KY), M Smith, B Baffert, 12-1
5 AMERICAN PROMISE (KY), N Juarez, W Lukas, 30-1
6 ADMIRE DAYTONA (JPN), C Lemaire, Y Kato, 30-1
7 LUXOR CAFE (KY), J Moreira, N Hori, 15-1
8 JOURNALISM (KY), U Rispoli, M McCarthy, 3-1
9 BURNHAM SQUARE (KY), B Hernandez Jr, I Wilkes, 12-1
10 GRANDE (KY), J Velazquez, T Pletcher, 20-1
11 FLYING MOHAWK (KY), J Ramos, W Beckman, 30-1
12 EAST AVENUE (KY), M Franco, B Walsh, 20-1
13 PUBLISHER (KY), I Ortiz Jr, S Asmussen, 30-1
14 TIZTASTIC (KY), J Rosario, S Asmussen, 20-1
15 RENDER JUDGMENT (KY), J Leparoux, K McPeek, 30-1
16 COAL BATTLE (KY), J Vargas, L Briley, 30-1
17 SANDMAN (KY), J Ortiz, M Casse, 6-1
18 SOVEREIGNTY (KY), J Alvarado, W Mott, 5-1
19 CHUNK OF GOLD (KY), J Loveberry, E West, 30-1
20 OWEN ALMIGHTY (KY), J Castellano, B Lynch, 30-1
Also eligible
21 BAEZA (KY), F Prat, J Shirreffs, 12-1

LINK TO PROGRAM NUMBERS LONG FORM

12-SECOND FURLONGS + 38 SECONDS OR LESS
Five horses ran both 12-second furlongs and finished in 38 seconds or less in their final prep: Grande, Journalism, Rodriguez, Sovereignty and Tiztastic. Journalism has an asterisk because his 12-second furlongs are projected due to trouble in the Santa Anita Derby. See Section 3 and Section 4 for details.

TOP HORSES IN FOUR CATEGORIES OF SPEED FIGURES IN RACES NINE FURLONGS OR LONGER 
Races in Dubai and Japan are not rated using U. S. methods.

Beyer Speed Figure: Journalism 102, Baeza 101, Rodriguez 101, Sandman 99, Grande 97, Burnham Square 96, East Avenue 96

DRF Combined Speed-Track Variant: American Promise 120, Render Judgment 112, Rodriguez 109, Final Gambit 106, Journalism 106

Equibase Speed Figure: Rodriguez 111, Journalism 108, Baeza 107, Grande 106, Burnham Square 104, East Avenue 104, Sandman 104

Brisnet Speed Figure: Journalism 108, Baeza 107, American Promise 105, Rodriguez 105, Final Gambit 101, Grande 101, Sandman 101

See Section 5 for more details.

DOWNEY PROFILE TOP HORSES
Top 4
Journalism           20.26
Burnham Square 13.72
Sandman              13.61
East Avenue         12.43

5th, 6th, 7th
Sovereignty  11.22
Rodriguez     10.86
Coal Battle     7.86 T
Tiztastic         7.86 T
See Section 6 for details.

PROFILE BUSTERS PROFILE
RODRIGUEZ (7). There are eight categories and we no longer use one of them, leaving seven. Rodriguez scored in all seven of those categories.
GRANDE (5)
SOVEREIGNTY (5)
JOURNALISM (5) does not qualify as a Profile Buster because he's in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile Rankings. In fact, he towers over the field.

See Section 11 for details.

TOP GALLOP OUTS AFTER RACES
In their most recent races two horses produced gallop outs into the backstretch that were the most visually impressive to my eye: Rodriguez and Sandman. Final Gambit was much the best in his gallop out on the synthetic at Turfway. See details in Section 8.

LINK TO RACING VIDEOS + EQUIBASE CHARTS

DOWNEY'S PROFILES OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD

#1 CITIZEN BULL (20-1)  - In the past we were amazed at how often trainer Baffert's drew the rail. Welcome back to the future.

Citizen Bull, who has worn blinkers every start of his career, will be equipped with them once again. His victories have come running on the lead. After his disastrous Santa Anita Derby, and after a couple of workouts without blinkers, connections said they hoped he could track the early speed and stay on once the field emerges from the second turn. But now he's wearing blinkers after all, and he has drawn the rail.

His bad post draw might make a fast early pace more probable. What option is he going to have but to be sent and risk being bumped, squeezed and who knows what else?

All that said, it's hard for me to see him staying on when they hit the top of the stretch. Citizen Bull's dosage profile is 2-6-2-0-0 (10), producing a dosage index of 9.00. But he's in the Baffert barn, so who knows. Seeing Citizen Bull close up, he does impress me as being on the small side and muscular, built like a sprinter, and that visual was reinforced April 28 when Joe Kristufek described him on the Works show as "compact".

There's some talk he might float Rodriquez out. Or perhaps, assuming trainers Baffert and Lukas are not in league with each other (see American Promise below), Citizen Bull might push American Promise out, opening space for Rodriguez. Or maybe there won't be any such shenanigans and the Baffert horses will compete straight up, as it should be.

On April 25 trainer Baffert joked to the media that Citizen Bull's recent workouts finally readied him for the Santa Anita Derby -- perhaps signaling, whether consciously or not, he's not yet ready for the longer Kentucky Derby. Trainer Baffert doesn't miss much. Maybe he was telling us straight up.

Trainer Baffert after the poor Santa Anita Derby effort: “I was discouraged (Citizen Bull) didn’t get the win today. He got tired. He’s a heavy horse. The track was deep today. We will figure this out. We have a week and then we’ll decide what is next.”

#2 NEOEQUOS (30-1)  - To win the Kentucky Derby he would have to improve on a grand scale. In Florida on a speed-favoring track he has impacted major races with his early speed and stayed on a bit into the stretch, but Neoequos not been a threat to win. If connections were thinking of rating him, that thought might be out the window now with his unlucky inside post position draw.

His jockey, Edgard Zayas, after finishing third in the Florida Derby: “He ran a huge race. We got the trip we wanted. He set up perfect in a stalking position. We were able to slow the pace and he was great. He really finished up pretty nice. We wanted to get running out of there and then kind of get running to the outside and after that, if I had the horse, get it done.”

#3 FINAL GAMBIT (30-1) - Final Gambit finished the Jeff Ruby Steaks like a rocket to win going away at 15-1 odds. The synthetic track produced a turf-like finish. His early pace was slow, but he passed every horse in the field to win. Turf-like or not, it was a tall order and he did it.

Sometimes Churchill Downs can be friendly to turf horses, but not always, and the Kentucky Derby will be Final Gambit's first race on dirt. However, he is certainly bred to run on dirt, and he has been training well on dirt at Churchill Downs -- he absolutely dusted his workmate in his April 26 move and didn't stop running until he was in the second turn. I was sitting up there on the backside when he did that. It's the kind of Derby workout I look for.

Final Gambit possesses a couple of the better numbers in two of four speed categories I posted in Section 5, and in addition he earned the highest Bris late pace figure of the Derby field in the Ruby. He has a pedigree that is crying out for distance; just look at that 15 classic number in his dosage profile: 2-7-15-0-0 (24), yielding a 2.20 dosage index. You hardly ever see that any more.

With Tappan Street out of the Derby with an unfortunate injury, Final Gambit is the Cox stable's final hope for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Wouldn't it be something if he won. Final Gambit is owned by Juddmonte, and it's difficult to think of a more serious outfit. I think don't they run in the Kentucky Derby just to get good seats.

I am concerned with post position 3 after reading what his jockey said after the Ruby. It may be that in order to run effectively Final Gambit will need to drop back, which I expected regardless of the post position, find a spot to make it through the first turn without trouble, and then fan outside to get a clear run.

After the Jeff Ruby Steaks, Luan Machado said, “I knew keeping him in the clear around the turn would probably be best, but I was worried with how wide the horses on the front end were going. Sometimes when he’s between horses he doesn’t try as hard as when he’s in the clear. He really closed fast down the lane and was impressive late.”

Brad Cox assistant trainer Tessa Walden said, “He was visually impressive when he broke his maiden here. It gave us confidence he’d come with a run, especially with how he handled the surface this winter.”

#4 RODRIGUEZ (12-1)  - Mike Smith recently said he's going for the lead in the Kentucky Derby and they'll have to come after him if they want it. The question is how fast he'll have to go to get it. That's a big key to the race.

If Rodriguez can get to the early lead and slow down the fractions to a reasonable pace, and if he can repeat his performance in Wood Memorial, he looks like a winner. American Promise looks like he wants to prevent Rodriguez from taking the early lead after recnet fast workouts, including his penultimate workout when he blazed out of the gate to run seven furlongs in 1:25.20 (with splits of 22.00, 33.60, 45.80, 57.80, 1:11.00).

Rodriguez ran a pretty big number in the Wood, much superior to previous efforts when he was not on the lead. I don’t know if he can duplicate that effort, even if he gets the lead. He's a horse it’s hard to leave out but there's also reason to doubt.

We have to keep in mind the Derby is an eighth of a mile longer than the Wood, but Rodriguez' Brisnet numbers from the Wood fit that source's Derby model almost to a T. The model is 94 E1, 103 E2, 93 LP, 103 Speed. In the Wood Rodriguez ran 93-103-101-105.

His workout at Churchill Downs was aweome. He was pulled up around the track kitchen. I was located nearby and saw it happen.

After the Wood Memorial:

Bob Baffert: “He’d been training like he was going to do something like that. I’ve always been very high on him. He’s just had some rough trips here in California. I knew the added distance would be a big factor for him. I thought he’d love stretching out and going a mile and an eighth. Mike Smith told me he wanted a super live one and I said, ‘Man, I’ve got a good one for you.’ He rode him beautifully. The horse looked great – he looked like Authentic. He won like a good horse. It was very impressive.

“His last two works were really strong here so I felt really good as long as he didn’t get too worked up, he'd be good. I think with taking the blinkers off, he relaxed a lot better. It was just a beautiful run and I’m just happy and blessed to have a horse like that."

Winning jockey Mike Smith: “I think they realized he just wants to be left alone. I could tell that warming up. Every time you did something with him, he’d get uptight. That’s just it – if you get him to breathe, he’s gonna run, man, and that’s what he did today. That’s probably why he ran that 100 Beyer when he broke his maiden to be honest with you.

“Man, he was doing it and Manuel (Franco on Captain Cook) came at me early around that turn and he picked it up with him. We put some separation on the field, and when I felt him do that again, I said, ‘Oh, we’re OK! He’s just got to be good enough, and he was.

About the gallop out: “He looked good, didn’t he? He really did. I asked Manuel, he picked him up [in the gallop out] and said, ‘Whoa, he’s still got a lot.’ I said, ‘yeah!’ Look, the Derby is always different, there’s going to be a big crowd. He gets a little [nervous], that’s why he had the earplugs. There’s a lot of growing for this horse to do, and that’s a good thing.

#5 AMERICAN PROMISE (30-1)  - As noted above, Mike Smith said if somebody wants to get the lead instead of Rodriguez, they’re gonna have to come after it. American Promise's most recent works, especially the penultimate one, suggest he may do just that.

But consider this. Trainers Baffert and Lukas ran one-two in the 2002 Derby with War Emblem on the lead for Baffert and Proud Citizen second at every call for Lukas. They each ran perfectly reasonable 12 second furlongs at the first four calls, and the merry-go-round continued to the finish line.

After the one-turn Virginia Derby, trainer Lukas' assistant said American Promise has a good mind. If American Promise is able to accept prompts from his jockey and dictate a moderate early pace, or stalk off a moderate early pace, he and Rodriguez could dictate the pace throughout the running. What’s going to happen if American Promise and Rodriguez are able to establish fractions like War Emblem and Proud Citizen did in 2002?

OR, Lukas could have in mind what Justify did in the 2018 Kentucky Derby, which was run the first five furlongs in 45 and change and never give up the lead. American Promise is a son of Justify, and according to Lukas he looks just like Justify: very large and imposing. With Citizen Bull in post 1 and bound to be sent, Lukas decide to send American Promise too.

American Promise has good figures in two of the four speed figure ratings we assessed on the subscription page (See Section 5). He has the highest combined DRF speed-track variant figure and third highest Brisnet speed figure. Before I began my study of those figures, I was highly skeptical of American Promise. I am still somewhat skeptical regardless of whether he tries to be part of a moderate early pace or goes hell-bent-for-leather, but he could win if he can get the distance effectively.

After the March 15 Virginia Derby, trainer Lukas talked about the coming days, saying “This is a typical case of a horse that was in a growth spurt like he is, big and rangy. He didn’t actually know what was expected, like a big, rangy kid. But the last 30 days, he has really come around and I expect him to get better the next 30 days."

#6 ADMIRE DAYTONA (30-1)  - Without traditional speed figures we have to go by visual assessment of his UAE Derby win, the fractions, and his training at Churchill Downs. The ability to gauge his training is questionable because Japanese trainers simply train differently than their American counterparts. For one thing, speedy timed workouts are not necessarily part of the program. Workouts appear to be used to stretch the horses' legs and expand their lungs.

In the UAE Derby, three runners were on near-even terms 100 yards out after being on or close to the lead earlier. One of those three faded a bit, one of them veered out late and still looked like he would win, and Admire Daytona’s nose was in exactly the right position at the wire. On air talent for the Dubai World Cup day broadcast described the end of this race as a battle of attrition.

Admire Daytona was on or pressing the lead at every call. Because there is no runup at the start of races in Dubai, it is difficult to assess his fractional splits when compared to American races that have runups. Regardless of whether he ran 12's or ran slower splits (see Section 3), one thing looks certain to me and it's none of the top three finishers ran very fast through the lane; instead, it was a battle of attrition.

Christophe Lemaire rode Admire Daytona in the UAE Derby and is named again for the Kentucky Derby. After the UAE Derby he said, "For sure he can go to Kentucky, but it is such a difficult race to win. It is one of the most iconic races in the world and we have to go if we can.”

Last year Forever Young proved that a horse could ship from Japan to Dubai to Louisville and still run a great race in the Kentucky Derby. However, Admire Daytona does not look as talented as Forever Young looked at this time last year. Lemaire's comment do not inspire me to change my outlook.

#7 LUXOR CAFE (15-1) - This horse finishes dirt races like he’s got a motor. A motor with lots of horse power. His modus operandi is to stay off the pace outside a few lengths back before turning on the burners with a devastating kick at the moment of truth. In the Fukuryu the pace was moderate and still zoomed by his rivals in the stretch.

Last year I had some reservations about forever Young because even though he finished strong his opening fractions in the UAE Derby were on the slow side. I was concerned that by the time he reached the quarter pole he would be too far behind to finish the job. That is not the way it turned out -- leaving the far turn he was close enough to strike and he came so close to winning.

Learning from that experience, I’m looking for the same type of performance from Luxor Café. In my book it’s gonna be hard to leave this Kentucky-bred son of American Pharoah out.

Lap times* in the Fukuryu Stakes, presumably for the pacesetter at each furlong of the race: 12.8 - 11.9 - 13.2 - 13.0 - 12.2 - 12.3 - 12.5 - 12.2 - 12.0. The first three furlong pace was 37.9 seconds, slower than the final three furlongs, making the pace resemble that of a turf race. Except for the second call, the final furlong was run faster than any other. *Lap Time is the time in between splits. The lap time is how long it takes you to get from one split to the next. The clock then starts over on the next split, or lap.

#8 JOURNALISM (3-1) - What can I write here that hasn’t already been written. His appearances on the track at Churchill Downs have been exceptional. He is a grand looking, handsome specimen. His exercise rider, through body language and demeanor when no one was really looking, is visibly impressed with him, and he is in the hands of a confident and thoughtful trainer. In my Downey Profile model, he towers over the rest of the field to an extent I've never seen.

I would not like giving out a 5-2 or 3-1 favorite as the winner when so many things can happen in a large field. But if he gets a good trip and doesn't stub his toe, he’s gonna be hard to beat.

His workout at Churchill Downs extended into the first turn. He ran almost a mile and a quarter. Really excellent.

Trainer and jockey thoughts after the race.

Winning trainer Michael McCarthy: “He had me worried for a jump or two. Special horse. I saw a little bit of adversity today, which you saw around the far turn. It took him a little bit to get his feet under him, but once Umberto was able to wheel him outside, he started getting him through his gears. He started to pick it up towards the end, leveled off nicely. He looked like he finished up well and galloped out well."

Winning jockey Umberto Rispoli: “I was trapped on the fence, and I thought, ‘Wow, this isn’t looking good. I knew my only way out was to push Barnes a little bit. I got through. That’s such a good animal to be able to get out of there. It’s rare for a horse to get held up at the three-eighths pole and to get back in the race in that way. It’s always difficult, especially for such a big horse. But he has such an amazing style and is just an amazing horse."

#9 BURNHAM SQUARE (12-1) - I’m going back-and-forth with this horse. He sure did finish slowly in the Blue Grass, and his speed figures from that race, although respectable, are not in the top tier. But trainer Wilkes is good at getting horses to peak when he wants.

Burnham Square is the Derby points leader and is in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile Rankings.

Although whether a horse has a dosage index more or less than 4.00 has lost its relevance in the Kentucky Derby, it's difficult for me to imagine this kind of profile can effectively get the distance: 4-13-5-0-0 (22) = a 7.80 dosage index.

His work on April 19 went kind of fast after we were told it would be a maintenance move, prompting some onlookers to wonder if Burnham Square was trying to run off. He settled down and ran to the wire with a lot of energy, but his gallop out looked better visually than the actual time. I can’t help but wonder if what I initially took as an energetic workout was really uncontrolled energy. Hard to figure.

Then, on April 26, his breeze was outstanding. On a track rated good, Burnham Square was accompanied by a pony until just before he broke off, which prevented him from trying to run off/lunging against Brian Hernandez, Jr. As soon as the work began Burnham Square dropped his head and moved through an impressive solo five-furlong breeze, galloped out while timed for seven furlongs, and pulled up after running a mile.

He and Journalism break from the gate next door to each other, and they have similar running styles, but I don't see Burnham Square beating Journalism if both have good trips and Journalism runs his race.

After the Blue Grass, we have the trainer and jockey reactions.

Winning trainer Ian Wilkes on Burnham Square’s progress from a maiden claiming runner-up finish at Keeneland in his debut Oct. 26: “You’d probably have to pinch me, because if you’d asked me before that race, I would not have dreamed I’d be here with him. He’s taken me there. You know, the horse has taken me everywhere I’ve wanted to go. I’ve just got to try and stay out of his way. The only thing I had to do to help him was put blinkers on him.

“(Winning) the Holy Bull was good. The Fountain of Youth (fourth), maybe I was just – I had to go easy. He’s not a big, robust horse, and I was probably a little kind on him coming in to that race, wasn’t as hard on him as what I wanted to be. Then I trained him a little more for here because I needed points, so I couldn’t mess around. We had to step up and get a little more serious now. But his number was better in the Fountain of Youth than it was in the Holy Bull.

“I’ll watch him. He’ll tell me what I need to do. But we have to keep the foot on the gas – got to keep the foot down on the pedal – because we’ve got to get a little better again. It’s going to be very deep waters, and we’ve got to get a lot better.”

Winning jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr.: "When we turned for home we had a full head of steam and I was confident. It kind of goes back to Ian trusting us; he doesn’t give us a whole lot of instructions. My son, Ben, and I sat down last night and watched all his races, and we both kind of came up with a plan: Just let him travel, let him cruise along. That’s the nice thing about a horse like him. For a 3-year-old to make such a long run like he did today and be able to run down Grade 1 winners like he did – he’s an exciting horse to move forward with.”

#10 GRANDE (20-1)  - In only his third career start, the Wood Memorial, Grande was shuffled back on the backstretch, wide on the back stretch, wide on the second turn, and inexplicably wide entering the stretch, yet he still managed to get up for second behind Rodriguez, who could be among the favorites on Kentucky Derby day.

Trainer Pletcher’s two Derby winners both trained at Churchill Downs coming into the race, but he sent Grande to Keeneland. That type of preparation is not unique in the trainer’s experience.

I was thinking perhaps Pletcher chose that venue just to make sure Grande got the work in when he wants, which was Friday, whether there’s rain or shine (thinking about the synthetic training track). There’s no way of knowing, but as things turned out the track at Churchill Downs was wet that morning while Grande got his breeze in before it rained at Keeneland.

Grande's 97 Beyer is in the top four if Baeza doesn’t run. If he does, Grande is in the top five. Grande ranks well in three of the four major categories of speed figures I published in Section 5 — barring defections from the other top figures horses.

Following his sole workout after the Wood Memorial, in which Grande was out in 1:27 and change after opening in 13.00, trainer Pletcher said he was cautiously optimistic about the Derby. Grande's workout at Keeneland received mixed reviews. but after watching it twice I thought it was pretty good in that he did the main body of the work on his own with Johnny V practically standing up and responded well when asked to run past the wire.

By the way, we might want to keep an eye on Valentinian, the workmate, who put in a pretty strong move himself. He's in race 3 at Churchill on Saturday.

I am not necessarily seeing Grande winning the Derby, although it it could happen, but I can see him picking up pieces. At a time when something like this rarely happened, his sire, Curlin, also came into the Derby off only three lifetime starts, albeit with higher speed figs and a better resume. Curlin finished third in the Derby and won the Preakness two weeks later.

Trainer Pletcher after running second in the Wood Memorial: "I thought he ran super. He didn’t break real well. He got shuffled around a little bit going into the first turn. Dylan [Davis] said he kind of had to check off heels which forced him to go really wide. He advanced nicely down the backside while out in the middle of the track. He still got hung out pretty wide on the far turn and I think compared to the ground saved that the winner had, it was a very creditable effort.

“He hasn’t been that far back, he hadn’t had dirt in his face – it was his first time in a stakes and only his third start. We have a lot of positive things to draw from it. I think he proved that he does belong and got some points as well. We’ll see how he comes out of it and come up with a plan, but I thought he certainly ran well enough.”

#11 FLYING MOHAWK (30-1) - Blinkers off, the only equipment change noted in the overnight. At 9-1 odds he came from next to the last to finish second in the Jeff Ruby. He has more turf breeding than his rival Final Gambit, who won the Ruby, and his speed figures in six career starts, none on dirt, do not suggest success. However, probably no one is having more fun participating in the Derby than his connections. Sometimes happy connections lead to good things, but I have to go with others.

Second place trainer Whit Beckham said this after his second-place finish in the Jeff Ruby: “When you’re from Louisville, there’s only one race you’re aiming for and that’s the Derby."

#12 EAST AVENUE - We are told by his camp East Avenue was trained too lightly in New Orleans before the Risen Star debacle, and that he likes being back home in Kentucky thus explaining his improvement in the Blue Grass. Is this just talk to promote his brand or is it legit?

It's difficult for me to buy into it. It wasn't just the Risen Star when East Avenue didn't make the lead and ran poorly. He didn't get an early lead in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile either, and he flopped just as badly in that one as he did in the Risen Star. He was a short-priced favorite in both races.

In summary, East Avenue's good races have seen him on the early lead; otherwise, he has not performed well. Logic thus dictates he will try to get the lead again. But if that's what he does, what will it cost him? It will only work if the pace is moderate. That could be a hard sell with one or two Baffert horses determined to get the lead and the Lukas horse, American Promise, just as primed to go-go at the break from all appearances.

And there's this. What if East Avenue is just a rabbit for stable mate Sovereignty? That scenario might help insure a fast early pace but not a likely win for East Avenue.

After running a close second to Burnham Square in the Blue Grass:

Brendan Walsh: “I loved how he battled. He looked at the head of the straight like he was going to fold and he didn’t fold, and I think it’s a good sign for the future. I think he’s a horse that can still improve. It’s nice to see him run a race like that."

Luan Machado (who's on Final Gambit in the Kentucky Derby): “We went really quick from the start, but the horse came back to me. It was a little aggressive, and he dropped a little bit in the second half. He dug deep and he fought back. He tried his best to get him, and I am happy with him.”

#13 PUBLISHER (20-1) - An exacta made up of Journalism and Publisher would be a fun bet.

There’s a good chance Publisher will finish ahead of his stable mate Tiztastic who is also 20-1, even though the former is a maiden and the latter won the Louisiana Derby. He's outworked Tiztastic at Churchill Downs. Recently when the two horses entered the track together, trainer Asmussen and his pony accompanied Publisher while Tiztastic was accompanied by a pony ridden by assistant trainer Scott Blasi.

Publisher hasn't run exceptional numbers, but he's hit the board five of seven starts and has shown recent improvement. He has a chance to dent the board. His stock certainly went up when Irad Ortiz, Jr. was named to ride at a time when he appeared to have other option.

Steve Asmussen said after the Arkansas Derby, “I’m very pleased with the progression he’s made. I love the class of that horse. I mean, he is meant for a big day. He is classy and calm. Wastes zero energy doing anything he shouldn’t be doing. Top class horse. (Did blinkers help?). I was hoping he would be a little bit closer, but he kind of got squeezed away from there again. You know what? With the pace scenario, we got a good trip. Winner outran us. At the head of the stretch, I’d have picked us and we ended up second. I’m very proud of how he ran, and we need to find more.”

#14 TIZTASTIC (20-1) He is a grinder that improved when the distance got longer, and he really enjoyed the track at Fairgrounds, but I wonder if he peaked winning the Louisiana Derby. It is difficult to leave him out underneath because he has he been around at the finish many times in his career, and he's the type that can pass tired horses in the last quarter-mile. Couldn’t blame anybody for playing him underneath.

I note Tiztasic got a low late pace figure as he ground his way to win the Louisiana Derby. I think there are others in the race with a better turn of foot in the late stages, so I can't pick him to win.

As noted above my research shows five Derby horses ran both 12-second furlongs and finished in 38 seconds or less in their final prep: Grande, Journalism, Rodriguez, Sovereignty and Tiztastic. I still don't know how he did that with a Brisnet late pace figure of 81.

After the Louisiana Derby, here's what his jockey and trainer had to say. Joel Rosario: "He did everything right. He was the best horse in the race. He handled a little bit of traffic at the 3/8ths pole. The pace was fast in front and I had the horse underneath me to get it done.” Steve Asmussen: "We thought he’d run bigger in the Southwest. He had enough distance (today). He’s stepping forward when he needs to. The horse has a great mind about him. I loved the way he acted pre-race. He ran a solid race but I think there’s more in him."

#15 RENDER JUDGMENT (30-1) - Unless Baeza draws in from the also-eligible list, Render Judgment is the last horse to make the field. If our only handicapping tool was his last workout at Churchill Downs, he might rank in the top five. However, he's another one that would have to vastly improve to win. And while he has improved this year, what he has lacked so far is a late kick even though he has some stamina influence in his pedigree. Hard to recommend.

It's too bad the late Toby Keith did not live to see Render Judgment make the Derby. He put a lot into the sport and died way too young last year. You might say Render Judgment is a part of his legacy.

#16 COAL BATTLE (30-1) - As consistent as this horse was leading into the Arkansas Derby, as straightforward as this horse is in his training, and as good-natured and open as his 72-year-old trainer talks when interviewed, I’m rooting for Coal Battle.

Before his poor post position draw, I was thinking he had a shot at doing some damage in The Derby. Now I'm not as sure. But there's room for hope.

Trainer Briley says Coal Battle takes care of himself on the race track but that he was just a little too full of himself before the Arkansas Derby. Briley talked about how he had to saddle Coal Battle "on the walk" for the first time. Later, Briley observed jockey Juan Vargas probably moved too soon.

The result: Coal Battle's numbers were not up to par in the Arkansas Derby. The race was an aberration from previous efforts, and I have to wonder if he might bounce back if Vargas can time it right.

I see post 16 as a potential problem, but maybe Coal Battle will break well and be able to follow #12 East Avenue out of the gate and establish good position going into the first turn. From there a well-timed ride could get him in the money when he shows his quick turn of foot leaving the far turn.

After the subpar third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, here's what his trainer and jockey said.

Trainer Lonnie Briley: “He was a little too fresh today. And you always think about the drawing board, going back to it. But in the paddock, he was a little anxious and stuff. So, I was worried about that today. He ran a good race. He ran third and Sandman had been coming from behind, so we knew that he would be a factor. When they added the blinkers to Publisher, he’s a good horse and he ran big. (Coal Battle) ran good against some good horses. We’ll have another shot at them soon.”

Coal Battle jockey Juan Vargas: “I think one thing that hurt my horse this time was he was very aggressive – like never before. I know he broke well from the gate, but this time he was very aggressive. I had to fight the horse and I think that cost me the race, for sure. If he had settled down, like normally he does, it was a perfect race for him. This time, I had to fight him a lot. You can’t fight him.”

#17 SANDMAN (6-1) - In 2007 I was told by a pretty good Jockey that high profile trainers like to talk about their horse when they have confidence in them; and when they don't, they stay quiet.

Trainer Casse has been accessible to the media. He has expressed optimism and and more than that, confidence, every time he encounters media at Churchill Downs.

And who can blame him. This son of Tapit has appeared to be growing up in front of our eyes since he got to Churchill Downs. He makes a grand impression on the track, he has a long stride and he just has a great aura about him.

A serious knock is that progeny of Tapit are not precocious; they are prone to mature as time passes. A son of Tapit has never won the Kentucky Derby, but four of them have won the Belmont Stakes five weeks later. Will one of his offspring ever mature quickly enough to win the Kentucky Derby?

I’ll have to admit I have been biased in favor of Sandman since February. He was my first pick in a triple crown fantasy league that involves some people whose names you would recognize. As a result, naturally I was disappointed when he drew post 17.

Sandman doesn’t flash much early speed (although he has respectable early speed Brisnet figures), and I hoped he would draw closer to the middle, but trainer Casse said that there’s not much difference in posts 14 through 17, so I’ll take what I can get.

To deal with his post, I envision Sandman and Jose Ortiz gradually moving toward the rail before the first turn to obtain a good position behind a lot of the earlier speed while staying out of trouble. Assuming a quick early pace, I see him being behind the second flight at that point. I do not see him going to the rail. I project his staying outside of horses so his momentum is never slowed by trouble.

A fast early pace is not guaranteed. It looks a lot more likely than not, though. And so I am banking on that to help Sandman put in a sustained run and a good placing in the Kentucky Derby, if not a win.

Two weeks ago I thought his odds might be about 8-1. But his improvement since then leaves us with a 6-1 morning line. I’m starting to wonder if Journalism, with a 3-1 morning line, has checked so many boxes he will go off at 2-1. If his odds drop that low, maybe Sandman will be a better value.

A few critics are dismissive of him, saying the fast early pace in the Arkansas Derby led to his win. I’m sure it helped him a lot, but that is not the only thing that led to his win. I was convinced before the Arkansas Derby that the added distance would benefit benefit Sandman, and it did. Now we have a race with even more added distance, and we have a horse that looks like he can run all day.

Reviewing his three losses at Churchill Downs: the first loss (badly beaten fifth) was at one turn in his debut; the second loss (badly beaten fifth in the Irogquois) was at one turn; the third loss (third, beaten 5 1/4 lengths by Sovereignty in the Street Sense) chart says, "SANDMAN broke a beat slow and transferred contact from an outer rival to an inner foe at the start, laid off of the pace in the four to three path, shiftzed (sic) out to the five path entering the lane, got outkicked by an outer rival while hanging on his left lead in upper stretch, delayed changing leads until the sixteenth pole, then kicked in after doing so and produced a late kick to miss place at the wire."

Other notable progeny of Tapit: Arthur's Ride, As de Trebol, Careless Jewel, Chachkova, Chasing Yesterday, Constitution, Creator, Cupid, Dance Card, Dream Dancing, Essential Quality, Flightline, Frosted, Hansen, Joyful Victory, Laragh, Panivino, Pauline's Pearl, Pretty City Dancer, Proxy, Ring Weekend, Stardom Bound, Sweet Loretta, Tapit Girl, Tapit Trice, Tapitsfly, Tapizar, Tapwrit, Tell a Kelly, Testa Matta, Time and Motion, Tonalist, Unique Bella, Untapable, Valiance, Zazu.

Here's what Sandman's trainer and jockey said after the Arkansas Derby.

Mark Casse: “I couldn’t believe (the fast early fractions), actually. I said, ‘Well, they’ll have to be superstars to keep going.’ The farther they went, the more confident I was. The faster they went, the more I smiled. I think that just shows how good he is (after lugging out in the stretch and still winning by 2 1/2 lengths). He wasn’t focusing and he was still able to draw away. As Jose said, he wants to get into a rhythm. And if you can get him into that rhythm, he’ll just go. Jose said he didn’t take a deep breath when he pulled up.”

Jose Ortiz: “We knew back then (when I rode him in the G3 Iroquois) that he wasn’t a one-turn horse. I was a little sad that I lost him because he came this way. But very excited to get him back. Today, a mile and an eighth, he’s proved that the two turns is his game. Very happy, very excited. Kentucky Derby – here we (come). He was a little shy from the whip from the left hand. I could see that from the replays the last time. I tried one time and didn’t try it again. So, he was rolling.”

#18 SOVEREIGNTY - I'm getting mixed signals all over the place.

My first draft of this profile, which I wrote the week before the Derby, started out with this comment: "I am not enamored with the runners coming from the Florida Derby." That was before Tappan Street, the Florida Derby winner, was taken out of the Kentucky Derby by an unfortunate injury. That leaves second- and third-place finishers Sovereignty and Neoequos.

The top speed figures from the Florida Derby are on the low side compared to many other Kentucky Derby horses no matter where you look -- Beyer, Brisnet, DRF speed/track variant and Equibase -- and so are the early pace and late pace Brisnet figures. YET, Sovereignty and Tappan Street did something in that race few other Derby starters accomplished in their final prep -- they finished in less than 38 seconds after running 12-second furlongs.

Last October Sovereignty won the Street Sense at Churchill Downs impressively, then skipped the Kentucky Jockey Club in November. His performance at Churchill Downs turned heads, and apparently he does really like Churchill Downs. There is no explaining it, some horses just take to Churchill Downs, including for one example 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver.

Sovereignty returned in the March 1 Fountain of Youth and he showed improvement over his excellent Street Sense performance. So now he had two things going for him. He stepped up to another level, and he did it on a different track.

But then the Florida Derby produced this for Sovereignty: his Brisnet figure (94) is barely better than the Street Sense figure (93); his combined DRF speed + track variant is 98 compared to 105 in the Street Sense and 107 in the FOY; his Beyer is 92 compared to a 95 in the FOY and an 87 in the Street Sense. And his Equibase figure (94) is five points lower than his Street Sense figure (99).

The week before the Kentucky Derby Sovereignty was sweating quite a bit at the end of gallops, and the word was that before the Florida Derby sweat was dripping from his neck before he lost to Tappan Street. Over the past weekend the issue subsided, and he put in good workout on Saturday.

If Sovereignty becomes anxious/washy before the Kentucky Derby -- let's say it happens during the post parade -- I don’t see how he can win. I should never say anything like that, because it can come back to bite you, but that’s just the way I see it.

As noted, he won the Street Sense at Churchill Downs, and I take it a lot of support is going his way because of that. However, winning a race at Churchill Downs is not a qualifier for the Kentucky Derby. You look at your Derby winners over the years, and there’s no correlative value.

Something else that comes to mind is the fact that a lot of time has passed since the Street Sense, and many of these horses are not the same as they were then. Some have gotten a lot better, and some have stayed about the same. Which type is Sovereignty?

I am still pondering what to do with Sovereignty in my selections, which I anticipate posting no later than Thursday morning.

Trainer and jockey comments after that second-place finish in the Florida Derby:

Trainer Bill Mott: “He (Sovereignty) came with his run. He ran well. He had a pretty good trip. He got a little wide going into the first turn but he got in and got a pretty good trip. Manny said the ground kind of broke away from him two different times, once at the three-eighths pole and once at the five-sixteenths pole. He said he kind of lost it and gathered himself up, and then he did it again. But, look, he ran OK.

"The winner ran good. It was a good race. This doesn’t have to be his best race. Sometimes you can look at it and say, maybe that’s a good thing. You don’t want their best race before the big event. This is a very important race, but I think the fact that he ran very big last time and ran very well this time, maybe he’ll continue to improve. I don’t think the fact that he didn’t win doesn’t mean he didn’t run a good race.”

Jockey Manny Franco: “I had a really good trip. I rode the horse the way he likes to run. I told Bill at two points he just didn’t get over the track. He bobbled on me and lost his stride. At that point I think I lost a little momentum to get him into the bridle again, into the rhythm, but he finished running. He’s going to be a good horse going forward.

“From the three-eighths pole he did it, and going to the quarter pole. I feel like he disappeared on me a little bit. But that’s the way it is. He kicked home anyway. When I hit the clear he was gaining ground.”

Junior Alvarado is healed and will ride Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby.

#19 CHUNK OF GOLD (30-1)  - Even though Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold came from off the pace to comprise the Louisiana Derby exacta, according to Brisnet figures the accomplishment did not emerge from top late pace numbers, but rather from top early pace numbers.

It is astonishing to me how many of these Derby horses have very slow late pace Bris numbers. Chunk of Gold finished the Louisiana Derby with a 70 Brisnet late pace. Chunk of Gold also does not figure in the top tier of different speed figures going nine furlongs or longer. And he drew post 19.

Trainer Ethan West said this after the Louisiana Derby: “He was a lot closer in this race than he ever has been. Jareth (Loveberry) said he was a lot more aggressive early on the front side here and he was trying to get covered up behind John Hancock. He said down the backside he took a big breath and relaxed and he said he was tired but rightfully so. Jareth put a beautiful ride on him - it was picture perfect.”

#20 OWEN ALMIGHTY (30-1) - I was at the track the day Owen Almighty won the Tampa Bay Derby. I was sick as you know what after some bug hit me the night before. I had only two cocktails, so it wasn't that. Whatever it was, it hit me like a ton of bricks. Anyway, I drug myself to the track and enjoyed the day with host Bobby Neuman and my BloodHorse editor Byron King, both of whom I consider friends. I said all that to say this: If Owen Almighty wins the Kentucky Derby, somebody better call me an ambulance because I'm gonna need it to get home.

#21 BAEZA (12-1) - He does not have enough points to make the main body of the Kentucky Derby field, but he needs only one scratch to get in. However, if the does get in he's going to be stuck on the far outside post, which seems unfair, but that's the way it is.

Baeza ran very impressive numbers in the Santa Anita Derby in only his fourth start as he sat fifth of five off of moderate early fractions and came home very strongly, beaten less than three lengths by the presumptive Kentucky Derby favorite, Journalism.

We still don’t know what he’ll do in a large field. When he faced 11 runners in his debut he finished ninth, but that was his first start and it was on turf. In his last three races he faced only 14 total competitors.

Two races back he won on second Lasix. To his credit, he moved forward without Lasix in his next start, which, of course was the Santa Anita Derby. Can't get Derby points unless there's no Lasix.

I don’t know what to make of his April 20 workout. He was originally credited at Equibase with six furlongs in 1:15 and change. That was revised to 7 furlongs in 1:28 flat. So yes, he finished well, but either way you slice it, that was a slow workout. He ran slowly again in his April 28 workout at Churchill Downs. I suppose both were maintenace works. I think it might be a mistake to discount him based on those works -- unless he's sore or something.

Baeza's speed figures jumped in the Santa Anita Derby, just as Rodriguez' did in the Wood Memorial, so a legitimate question is whether he or they will run another one like that or bounce.

I don't delve into pedigree very much, mainly because you could make a case for any number of Derby horses based on their pedigrees, but it's worth noting Baeza's dam, Puca, not only produced 2023 Kentucky Derby winner but also Mage and Dornoch, winner of the 2024 Belmont Stakes, Haskell and Fountain of Youth.

Should he draw into the race, I'll deal with his post position later this week in Dick's Picks. For now I'll say I remember when Big Brown won from way out there, but he was 2-1 and enough better than his rivals that all he had to do was circle them.

Trainer Shirreffs after the Santa Anita Derby: “He ran super."

Thank you for reading my work, and I hope it helps you with your selections. I'll post selections no later than Thursday morning.