Kentucky Derby by the Speed Numbers - PRELIMINARY

Posted April 22, 2025

Updated April 26, 2025 following the unfortunate injury to Tappan Street. He sustained a condylar fracture. It's not life-threatening, and he will have surgery.  Tappan Street was not listed among the top horses in the four categories of speed figures. He was listed low on the list among the top 10 late pace figures; Sandman was added to that list.

Updated April 26: Further review of Render Judgment now that he is in the field: He is second-fastest DRF combined speed-track variant. He is 10th fastest E2 figure and tied for 10th fastest combined E1-E2 figures.

This section will be updated once the Derby field is more settled. Entries for the Derby close Saturday, April 26. Baeza is included here but may not make the Kentucky Derby field. In addition, there could be defections of contenders who already qualify for the Derby.

TOP HORSES IN FOUR CATEGORIES OF SPEED FIGURES IN RACES NINE FURLONGS OR LONGER 

Races in Dubai and Japan are not rated using U. S. methods.

Beyer Speed Figure: Journalism 102, Baeza 101, Rodriguez 101, Sandman 99, Grande 97, Burnham Square 96, East Avenue 96

DRF Combined Speed-Track Variant: American Promise 120, Render Judgment 112, Rodriguez 109, Final Gambit 106, Journalism 106

Equibase Speed Figure: Rodriguez 111, Journalism 108, Baeza 107, Grande 106, Burnham Square 104, East Avenue 104, Sandman 104

Brisnet Speed Figure: Journalism 108, Baeza 107, American Promise 105, Rodriguez 105, Final Gambit 101, Grande 101, Sandman 101


INCIDENCE AND RANKING OF HORSES' SPEED FIGURES IN ABOVE CATEGORIES (T = tie)

NOTE:  Rankings include Baeza, who at this time lacks points to make the Derby field. Races in Dubai and Japan are not rated.

April 26 NOTE: Today I minimally pared down this list to emphasize the top numbers.

Journalism: 1 Beyer; 4T DRF-S/TV; 2 Equibase; 1 Brisnet
Rodriguez: 3 Beyer; 3 DRF-S/TV; 1 Equibase; 3T Brisnet
Baeza: 2 Beyer; 3 Equibase; 2 Brisnet
American Promise: 1 DRF-S/TV; 3 Brisnet
Grande: 5 Beyer; 4 Equibase;  5T Brisnet
Sandman: 4 Beyer; 5T Equibase; 5T Brisnet
Final Gambit: 4T DRF-S/TV; 5T Brisnet
Burnham Square: 6T Beyer; 5T Equibase
East Avenue: 6T Beyer; 5T Equibase

Render Judgment 2 DRF-S/TV


EARLY AND LATE BRISNET PACE FIGURES IN RACES NINE FURLONGS OR LONGER

E1 is a pace figure that measures speed over the first four furlongs in route races.
E2 is a pace figure that measures speed over the first six furlongs in route races.
LP is a pace figure that measures speed after the first six furlongs in route races.

Brisnet Baseline Ratings for the Kentucky Derby

E1 94 - E2 103 - LP 93 - Speed 103

This section is not intended to be a model. It is offered for your own analysis.

The 10 horses with the fastest E1 figures and E2 figures are all faster than the baseline. With what appears on paper to be an abundance of speed we could see a fast early pace that is likely to melt down unless the horse does a "Justify" and just keeps going. Almost all of the 10 horses with the fastest LP figures meet or exceed the baseline. Taking into account the long stretch at Churchill Downs and the increased length of the Kentucky Derby vis a vis the prep races, I think the horse in this group that gets the best trip is likely to win.

Rodriguez has figures that most approximate the Brisent baseline ratings. This does not necessarily mean he can duplicate those figures in the Kentucky Derby. If he does, he might win, but a horse with figures superior to his might finish ahead of him. Or, a late-developing horse with upside potential could improve enough to beat him, particularly if he does not get an uncontested lead.

10 Fastest E1 Figures

Chunk of Gold 106, East Avenue 104, Coal Battle 103, Citizen Bull 99, Owen Almighty 98, American Promise 97, Baeza 97, Journalism 96, Sandman 94, Rodriguez 93, Render Judgment 93

Render Judgment 92, Tiztastic 92, Grande 90, Flying Mohawk 89, Neoequos 88, Publisher 88

10 Fastest E2 Figures

Chunk of Gold 118, Tiztastic 114, Coal Battle 112, American Promise 111, Citizen Bull 109, Sandman 108, Baeza 107, East Avenue 107, Owen Almighty 106, Render Judgment 105

Next: Publisher 104, Rodriguez 103, Render Judgment 102, Journalism 102, Burnham Square 101, Grande 100

10 Fastest Combined E1-E2 Figures

Chunk of Gold 224, Coal Battle 215, East Avenue 211, American Promise 208, Citizen Bull 208, Tiztastic 206, Baeza 204, Owen Almighty 204, Sandman 202, Journalism 198, Render Judgment 198

10 Fastest Late Pace Figures

Bris LP: Final Gambit 112, Journalism 109, Baeza 102, Flying Mohawk 102, Rodriguez 101, Grande 97, Sovereignty 97, American Promise 93, Burnham Square 89, Sandman 88

DETAILS

(DRF S-TV = Combined DRF speed- track variant)

Admire Daytona: No figures, but has has good early speed, and he finished slowly in the UAE Derby. Can also rate off the pace.

American Promise: 95 Beyer, 120 DRF S-TV, 101 Equibase, 105 Brisnet, 97 BrisE1, 111 BrisE2, 93 BrisLP

Baeza: 101 Beyer, 105 DRF S-TV, 107 Equibase, 107 Brisnet, 97 BrisE1, 107 BrisE2, 102 BrisLP

Built: 84 Beyer, 92 DRF S-TV, 88 Equibase, 92 Brisnet, 108 BrisE1, 121 BrisE2, 60 BrisLP
Built: 92 Beyer, 94 DRF S-TV, 91 Equibase, 94 Brisnet, 98 BrisE1, 110 BrisE2, 76 BrisLP

Burnham Square: 96 Beyer, 101 DRF S-TV, 104 Equibase, 97 Brisnet, 85 BrisE1, 101 BrisE2, 89 BrisLP

California Burrito: 73 Beyer, 96 DRF S-TV, 81 Equibase, 90 Brisnet, 95 BrisE1, 96 BrisE2, 81 BrisLP

Chunk of Gold: 92 Beyer, 98 DRF S-TV, 96 Equibase, 98 Brisnet, 106 BrisE1, 118 BrisE2, 72 BrisLP
Chunk of Gold: 92 Beyer, 94 DRF S-TV, 91 Equibase, 94 Brisnet, BrisE1, BrisE2, 81 BrisLP

Citizen Bull: 87 Beyer, 96 DRF S-TV, 94 Equibase, 97 Brisnet, 99 BrisE1, 109 BrisE2, 82 BrisLP

Coal Battle: 88 Beyer, 97 DRF S-TV, 93 Equibase, 93 Brisnet, 103 BrisE1, 112 BrisE2, 70 BrisLP

East Avenue: 96 Beyer, 101 DRF S-TV, 104 Equibase, 97 Brisnet, 104 BrisE1, 107 BrisE2, 83 BrisLP

Final Gambit: 90 Beyer, 106 DRF S-TV, 96 Equibase, 101 Brisnet, 87 BrisE1, 85 BrisE2, 112 BrisLP

Flying Mohawk: 84 Beyer, 102 DRF S-TV, 91 Equibase, 97 Brisnet, 89 BrisE1, 88 BrisE2, 102 BrisLP

Grande: 97 Beyer, 105 DRF S-TV, 106 Equibase, 101 Brisnet, 90 BrisE1, 100 BrisE2, 97 BrisLP

Journalism: 102 Beyer, 106 DRF S-TV, 108 Equibase, 108 Brisnet, 96 BrisE1, 102 BrisE2, 109 BrisLP

Luxor Cafe: No figures but he has shown an amazing turn of foot in the late stages of his races.

Neoequos: 89 Beyer, 95 DRF S-TV, 90 Equibase, 91 Brisnet, 88 BrisE1, 95 BrisE2, 83 BrisLP

Owen Almighty: 90 Beyer, 97 DRF S-TV, 98 Equibase, 92 Brisnet, 98 BrisE1, 106 BrisE2, 76 BrisLP

Publisher: 95 Beyer, 101 DRF S-TV, 100 Equibase, 98 Brisnet, 88 BrisE1, 104 BrisE2, 87 BrisLP

Render Judgment: 90 Beyer, 97 DRF S-TV, 98 Equibase, 93 Brisnet, 92 BrisE1, 102 BrisE2, 80 BrisLP

Render Judgment 83 Beyer, 112 DRF S-TV, 90 Equibase, 96 Brisnet, 93 Bris E1, 105 Bris E2, 84 BrisLP

Rodriguez: 101 Beyer, 109 DRF S-TV, 111 Equibase, 105 Brisnet, 93 BrisE1, 103 BrisE2, 101 BrisLP

Sandman: 99 Beyer, 104 DRF S-TV, 104 Equibase, 101 Brisnet, 94 BrisE1, 108 BrisE2, 88 BrisLP

Sovereignty: 92 Beyer, 98 DRF S-TV, 95 Equibase, 94 Brisnet, 79 BrisE1, 87 BrisE2, 97 BrisLP

Tappan Street: 94 Beyer, 99 DRF S-TV, 96 Equibase, 95 Brisnet, 82 BrisE1, 90 BrisE2, 96 BrisLP

Tiztastic: 95 Beyer, 100 DRF S-TV, 99 Equibase, 100 Brisnet, 92 BrisE1, 114 BrisE2, 81 BrisLP