Comprehensive Data Entries Since 1973

Do winners of the Kentucky Derby have factors in common more prevalent than non-winners? They do. In its history, The Downey Profile® identified over a dozen such factors, and we determined their rate of frequency in all starters since the 1973 Kentucky Derby. Winners have a higher rate of occurrence of these factors than non-winners. Over time, some of the factors have faded in importance, but others continue to have significance.

Many of the factors have existed all years of the study. One factor, Beyer speed ratings, has been applicable since 1992; and a factor involving certain major Derby prep races has been applied since the 1973 inception of our study. Some factors have been phased out as they lost statistical significance, and as of 2024 we are down to eight very important factors. This study has resulted in over 9,000 entries in our factor charts, entries that have been checked, double-checked, and triple-checked. We guarantee the accuracy of our findings.

The Downey Profile ranks horses starting in each year's Kentucky Derby. It's a completely objective Kentucky Derby Ranking Profile built on weighted performance and pedigree factors more common to winners than non-winners of the Kentucky Derby, based on our study that dates back to 1973.

The Downey Profile narrows down the Kentucky Derby field to a Top Four. This way, in a field of 20, which is now commonplace, we eliminate 80% of the field and try and find our winner in the Top Four. We also utilize a Profile Busters Profile that's produced several winners, most recently 2017 winner Always Dreaming.

Application of the Profile to Wagering

Building the Downey Profile is a matter of determining which horses have the highest total of factor weights. Thirty-two of the past 49 runnings since 1973 (excluding 2020 and 2021) of the Kentucky Derby have been won by a horse ranked in our Top Four by utilizing those factor weights, which are updated and re-weighted annually.

Occasionally there is a tie for the highweight. A $2 win bet on our top-ranked horse for the past 49 years (again, we are not factoring 2020 and 2021) cost $106.00, if you bet both of the highweights in the four years there has been a tie, and the return on those bets is $167.80.

Along these same lines, a $2 win-place-show bet on our top-ranked horse over the same time period cost $318.00, and yields $356.00.

Boxing our top four horses (more if there's a tie for fourth*) in a $2 exacta wager** over the same time frame cost $1,228.00 and yields $2,061.80.

Compare betting favorites. A $2 win bet on the post-time favorite each year over the same time period cost $100.00 -- there was a virtual tie for lowest odds one year -- and yields $129.60. Along these same lines, a $2 win-place-show bet on the post-time favorites over the same time period cost $306.00 and yields $326.80. Favorites have certainly made their mark in recent years, winning the Kentucky Derby in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, which may be all you need to know. But we don't think so.

A $2 exacta box of the four lowest post-time odds horses over the same time period yields $619.00** while costing $1,166.00.

Still interested?

*For the first and only time in our study, three horses tied for fourth ranking in 2006, and the resulting six-horse $2 exacta box cost $60.00. There was a two-way tie for the fourth-ranked spot in 2001, resulting in a five-horse box wager costing $40.

**Exacta wagering was unavailable in the Derby prior to 1985. Payoffs in those years are estimated by multiplying the $2 win payoff on the win horse times the $2 place payoff on the place horse.

Membership in our Kentucky Derby Subscription provides:

--The Downey Profile Rankings of the Kentucky Derby contenders.

--Description of how to play the Profile

--Profile Busters Profile with possible Profile Busters

--Whether helpful or not any more, condensed dosage listings.

--Our exclusive NOTES about relevant Kentucky Derby prep races where we break down internal fractions and comment on the performances

--Commentary about the type of running style we consider essential to winning the Kentucky Derby

--Other features we hope you enjoy.

To elaborate a bit, the Downey Profile Rankings are maintained through the day of the Kentucky Derby. Unexpected defections can affect the final rankings, and it is not unusual for that to happen late in the process. We stay on top of it so that accurate final rankings will be online on Derby Day.

A day or two before the Derby, selections for the race by Dick Downey and will be shared with subscribers. Not just names or numbers, but the reasoning behind the picks.

Revisions to Factors

1.  For a period of time, synthetic track performance was necessarily figured into our calculations, but one change we made, effective in 2011, was the elimination of performance in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park (formerly the Lane's End Stakes and now the Jeff Ruby Steaks) as a factor. In 2010, Dean's Kitten won the Lane's End and wound up ranked on top of the Downey Profile Top Four. We did not pick him in our top four selections for the Kentucky Derby, and he did not run well in the Derby. There were similar examples in prior years. As fate would have it, in 2011 Animal Kingdom won what was called the Spiral that year and then took the Kentucky Derby. However, despite the fact he didn't get points in The Downey Profile for winning the Spiral, Animal Kingdom somehow made the Top Four of the Profile.

In 2010, Stately Victor won the Blue Grass run on Keeneland's synthetic main track, and he ranked third in the Top Four. We did not use him at all in the Derby, and he did not run well. Brilliant Speed, the 2011 Blue Grass winner, was also ranked in our Top Four, and fortunately we didn't use him, either. We retained performance in the Blue Grass Stakes as a Profile factor, however, because Street Sense performed well in it in 2007 -- on a synthetic track -- and then won the Kentucky Derby; and because Keeneland returned its main track to a dirt surface in 2014.

Sidney's Candy was yet another synthetic-track horse (Santa Anita) in our Top Four in 2010. He got stuck with a horrible post position in the Kentucky Derby and finished way up the track. Santa Anita reverted to a dirt surface in December 2010.

With changes that have taken place in recent years -- elimination of the Spiral from The Downey Profile, Hollywood Park's closure and Keeneland's and Santa Anita's returns to dirt main tracks -- synthetic track specialists are no longer as prominent in the Profile.

2.  Before the 2011 Kentucky Derby, we looked back at the previous 10 runnings (2001-2010) and determined the weights that result from both "raced three or four times at age three before the Derby" and "raced two times at age three before the Derby." The results mandated that we award points if the horse started two times before the Derby at age three, and that is what we are still doing.

Before 2011, our Performance Points factors had always included this component: "raced three or four times at age three before the Derby," but as of 2011, the trend had gravitated away from this method of training. Super Saver (2010), Mine That Bird (2009), Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007) each started only twice at age three before the Derby. The five Derby winners prior to 2007 each started either three or four times at age three before the Derby.

After we changed the way we weighted this factor before the 2011 Derby, Animal Kingdom (2011) and I'll Have Another (2012) won the Kentucky Derby off two prior starts at age three. Orb (2013) had three prior starts at age three, and California Chrome (2014) also had three prior starts at age three. While Orb ranked fifth in The Downey Profile, California Chrome ranked third. American Pharoah (2015) started just two times at age three before the Kentucky Derby, and so did Nyquist in 2016. Both of them were in our Top Four. Always Dreaming started three times at age three before the 2017 Kentucky Derby and wasn't in The Downey Profile Top Four, but we picked him to win the Derby as the top Profile Buster. More on that subject below. Justify, who didn't race as a 2-year-old, started three times before the 2018 Derby, but he made our Top Four. Maximum Security started three times at age three before the 2019 Derby, and he ranked in our Top Four as well.

As prominently noted above, we do not include the 2020 Derby and the 2021 Derby in our study. In 2022, Rich Strike raced three times at Turfway Park at age three before his major Derby upset. He hasn't won a race since. The 2023 Derby winner, Mage, did not race at age two and, like Justify, raced three times at age three before the Run for the Roses. He hasn't won a race since and never will due to his retirement.

Our baseline year for this factor remains 2001. We continue to monitor this factor.

3.  Before the 2013 Derby, we dropped the following factor: The horse had six or more prior lifetime starts. Lightly raced horses had begun winning the Derby more often, and based on the previous 40 runnings of the Derby, this factor had been reduced to a weight of only 1.02, rendering it virtually neutral as a factor.

4.  Until 2016 a factor in the Downey Profile was "horse is a dual qualifier." A horse was a dual qualifier if it had a dosage index of 4.00 or less and was weighted within 10 pounds of the highweight in the Experimental Free Handicap, a 2-year-old rating method started by the Jockey Club in the 1930s. For modern purposes, we only utilized "dual qualifier" as a factor weight based on the years since 1988, the year when the Dual Qualifer method of handicapping the Derby began to deteriorate. The factor would have been given undue importance had we weighted it going back to 1973 because it would have included an era when dual qualifiers absolutely dominated the Kentucky Derby.

In 2015, American Pharoah's dosage index was 4.33, and he was therefore not a Dual Qualifier because his dosage index exceeded 4.00. He of course still won the Derby. With American Pharoah's victory, this factor, based on our study since 1988, was reduced to a weight of only 1.05, rendering it virtually neutral in importance. We discontinued its use in 2016. Nyquist, who won the 2016 Kentucky Derby, was not a dual qualifier because his dosage index was 7.00. Amazingly, in 2017 and 2018 we had two more consecutive years in which the Kentucky Derby winner's dosage index exceeded 4.00. Always Dreaming's dosage index is 5.00, and Justify's is 4.20. In 2019, Maximum Security, who won the Kentucky Derby only to be disqualified for interference by stewards, has a dosage index of 1.93. The 2022 winner, Rich Strike, carried a dosage index of 3.36. Mage, the 2023 winner, has a dosage index of 2.50.

NOTE: I would be remiss if I didn't include in this conversation that the concept of Dual Qualifier ceased to exist at all when, in 2019, The Jockey Club ceased publication of the Experimental Free Handicap (renamed The Jockey Club's Annual Top 2-Year-Old Rankings in late 2017).

5.  Before the 2017 Kentucky Derby, the factor "dosage index is 4.00 or less" was dropped from The Downey Profile because it, too, had become statistically insignificant. Whether or not a horse has a dosage index of 3.00 or less had been discontinued a few years prior. Specifically, we revisited the latter factor after the 2013 Kentucky Derby and discovered that although from 2006 through 2013 six of the eight winners, or 75%, had a dosage index of 3.00 or less, the percentage of all starters during the same time period with a dosage index of 3.00 or less was virtually identical. Both factors remain discontinued.

6.  Before the 2019 Kentucky Derby, we had to drop two factors: Running Style (passed horses in at least half of prior starts) and Raced in October, November or December of the prior year. When we updated the weights for those factors following the 2018 Derby, each factor had become equally likely to occur in percentages of winners and non-winners of the Run for the Roses.

7.  In short, as time passed the factors most significant in The Downey Profile became performance factors that materialize when the nine-furlong prep races are run.

Anecdotal and Residual Results of Application of the Downey Profile

In addition to being an objective predictor of success in the Kentucky Derby, The Downey Profile is also proficient in predicting success in the other two legs of the Triple Crown, as well as later major stakes races. The key is to not give up on your horse.

Let's take a look back.

2023

Angel of Empire was TDP's top-rated horse and my pick to win the Derby. When all was said and done Derby week, which included multiple late scratches, Angel of Empire became the betting favorite. He finished third after being too far back in the early going. We also put Two Phil's in selections due to his prominence in our Profile Busters Profile, and he ran a sensational race to finish second. Tapit Trice, Confidence Game and Hit show rounded out our Top 4. Hit Show ran fifth at 24-1 odds. Tapit Trice underperformed with a seventh-place finish and went on to drop off racing's radar. We were not a believer in Confidence Game and did not tout him. All in all, this group has not shown good residual value.

2022

This was a down year for The Downey Profile and perhaps just so-so for the 3-year-old crop in general. The Downey Profle Top 4 were, in order, Taiba, White Abarrio, Zandon and Cyberknife. Epicenter was ranked eighth, but he went on to win the Eclipse Award for top 3-year-old male after running second in the Derby and Preakness, winning the Travers and Jim Dandy, and being unable to finish the Breeders' Cup Classic due to injury. Taiba had a good measure of post-Derby success, finishing second in the Haskell, first in the Pennsylvania Derby, third in the Breeders' Cup Classic and first in the Malibu. White Abarrio, although he was a good runner, did not have outstanding achievements. Zandon finished third in the Kentucky Derby and was second in the Jim Dandy, third in the Travers, second in the Pennsylvania Derby and fourth in the Cigar Mile. Cyberknife went on to win the Matt Winn and the Haskell, and he was second in the Travers, third in the Pennsylvania Derby and second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

2021

Our Top 4 horses were Essential Quality (a wide fourth in the Derby by two lengths, moved up to third via disqualification of the winner), Super Stock (16th in the Derby at 33-1 odds, moved up to 15th), Rock Your World (17th in the Derby at 9-2 odds, moved up to 16th) and Hot Rod Charlie (our pick to win who finished third by a length, moved up to second, a half-length behind second runner Mandaloun). Essential Quality went on to win the Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes. He finished third in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Super Stock was a useful horse, running in seven subsequent minor stakes and winning one. Rock Your World needed the lead to win, and he didn't find it in the Derby; he finished sixth, second and ninth in three subsequent stakes starts. As of this writing, Hot Rod Charlie had run six more times, finishing second in the Belmont Stakes, seventh in the Haskell Stakes, first in the Pennsylvania Derby, fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic, second in the San Antonio Stakes and first in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan.

2020

Although the winner of the Kentucky Derby, Authentic, was in our Top 4, we cannot include this result in our stats because the race was run in September. Factors leading to the race were built seat-of-the-pants because the race was run four months after its normal date due to a pandemic. Authentic went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic.

2019

Maximum Security was in The Downey Profile Top 4. After the Kentucky Derby, he was withheld from both the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, but he went on to win two grade I races, the Haskell Invitational and the prestigious Cigar Mile. At this update, he was scheduled to resume racing as a 4-year-old. Country House, the Derby winner via disqualification, was last in The Downey Profile rankings, and he did not put in a workout or race again in 2019. Tacitus, Vekoma and Roadster, who were in the Top Four, did not go on to achieve any greatness in 2019.

2018

Justify was in The Downey Profile Top 4, and he won not only the Kentucky Derby, but the Triple Crown. Unfortunately, after the Belmont Stakes injury and unfortunate timing led to his retirement, and he didn't race again. Good Magic, another Top 4 horse, finished second in the Kentucky Derby and narrowly missed running second in the Preakness. He went on to win the Haskell Stakes, a grade I race. He's been retired. Audible was off for six months after the Kentucky Derby, and as of this post we'll see how he fares in the $9 million Pegasus at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 26. Our other Top 4 horse was Bolt d'Oro. I didn't include him in my top four picks in the race, and he finished twelfth before running eleventh in his only after that, the Met Mile.

2017

Nothing is foolproof, and we have to say that 2017 wasn't a great year for Downey Profile Top 4 horses or Kentucky Derby horses in general. The Eclipse Award winner for top 3-year-old, West Coast, was a late bloomer and didn't even compete in the Derby. The Downey Profile Top 4 horses for the Kentukcky Derby were Classic Empire, Practical Joke, Gormley and Irish Way Cry, and these are not names that endured as the year progressed. The best we can say is that Classic Empire finished second -- and should have won -- the Preakness. By the way, Downey went outside The Downey Profile Top 4 and picked the top Profile Buster horse, Always Dreaming, to win the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Among Kentucky Derby starters that were not in The Downey Profle Top 4, there was some success, but not much. Tapwrit went on to win the Belmont Stakes, Girvin won the Haskell Stakes and Gunnevera remained relevant all year, but there's not much else to talk about.

2016

Nyquist, a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. He didn't go on to achive other great wins; perhaps that high dosage index (7.00) eventually caught up with him. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness and Grade I Haskell Stakes, although his record in other big races wasn't as good before he was retired. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse and went on to win the Grade I Clark Handicap and the Grade III Matt Winn Stakes, run second in the Grade I Breeders' Cup Mile and the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby and third in the Grade I Travers Stakes. Gun Runner went on to win everything in sight as a 4-year-old, including the Breeders' Cup Classic, and was the 2017 Horse of the Year. Brody's Cause was the other Top Four horse in 2016, and he was retired after the Belmont Stakes.

2015

American Pharoah, a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby and became the first horse in 37 years to win the Triple Crown. Dortmund ranked at the top of The Downey Profile and finished third in the Kentucky Derby. He won a minor stake later in 2015 and then needed time off. In 2016, he won the Grade III Native Diver Stakes, ran second in the Grade II San Diego Handicap and Grade I Awesome Again Stakes, and ran third in the Grade I Pacific Classic. As this is posted in early 2017, he is being readied for a return to racing. Carpe Diem was ranked in the Top Four, and he was retired after running poorly in the Kentucky Derby. Materiality was ranked fourth and he was retired after running poorly in the Belmont Stakes. Frosted, the fifth-ranked horse, has gone on to win the Grade I Met Mile by a pole as well as the Grade I Whitney Stakes and the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby, run second in the Belmont Stakes and the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes, and third in the Grade I Travers Stakes and Grade I Woodward Stakes.

2014

Caliornia Chrome, a Top Four horse in The Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He ran a heck of a race in the 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic, coming up just short of the win. Some would say the top two finishers should have been disqualified, but they weren't, and that's that. California Chrome went on to win the Grade I Hollywood Derby on turf that same year. In 2015, California Chrome raced only twice, finishing second in both the Group 1 Dubai World Cup and the Grade II San Antonio Stakes. In 2016, California Chrome won the Group 1 Dubai World Cup, Grade I Pacific Classic, Grade I Awesome Again Stakes, Grade II San Pasqual Stakes and the Grade II San Diego Handicap. He also ran second in the Breeders' Cup Classic and was voted Horse of the Year. The remaining Top Four: Samraat didn't go on to accomlish much. Danza, who may have been robbed of second place in the Kentucky Derby after he was clobbered by stable mate Vinceremos early in the race, never raced again. Chitu looked like one of the best middle distance horses in the country, but he raced only twice more after the Derby.

2013

This wasn't a good year for residual results in 2013. The Top 4 -- Overanalyze, Java's War, Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary -- didn't do much the remainder of that year. In 2014, only Revolutionary impacted graded stakes races, winning the Grade III Pimlico Special and placing in the Grade II Oaklawn Handicap.

2012

Number four Union Rags, Downey's pick to win the Kentucky Derby, was compromised at the gate break; but he went on to win the Belmont Stakes. Dullahan, ranked number two in the Profile, finished third in the Kentucky Derby and won the Grade I Pacific Classic. Number three Creative Cause, whom we determined was a nervous animai Derby week, still managed to finish fifth in the Derby and third in the Preakness before being retired. Gemologist was ranked number one in the Profile but something went wrong with him and he was retired not long after the summer classics.

2011

After winning the Derby, Animal Kingdom finished second in the Preakness, second in the Breeders' Cup Mile, second in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and won the Group 1 Dubai World Cup. Brilliant Speed was our top-ranked horse and finished third in the Belmont Stakes, won the Grade III Saranac, was second in the Grade I Jamaica, third in the Breeders' Cup Turf, third in the Grade I Manhattan Handicap and third in the Grade II Bowling Green Stakes. Comma to the Top is kind of a footnote. Poor old Archarcharch, whom we thought had the best pre-Derby workout, drew the one-hole, was hurt during the running of the Derby and was subsequently retired.

2010

Super Saver wasn't in The Downey Profile Top Four in 2010, but we did have him in our top three selections for the Kentucky Derby on our Subscription Page because we could see how well he was training at Churchill Downs the week of the race. Ice Box was ranked second in our Top Four and we picked him to win. They ran one-two, and the exacta paid $152.40.

Super Saver was retired not long after the Derby. Ice Box peaked in the Derby and was never the same again.

2009

Top-ranked Pioneerof the Nile finished second in the Kentucky Derby at 6-1 odds and then ran up the track in the Preakness. He was subsequently retired.

Third-ranked Papa Clem finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby at 12-1 odds and had only moderate success afterward, finishing fourth in the Grade I Haskell, third in a grade I and winning a grade II before retirement.

West Side Bernie ranked second in the Profile and finished ninth in the Derby, but he was then purchased for a large sum and taken to Dubai. He raced twice after that, accomplishing nothing, and he's not been heard from since July, 2010.

Since his Kentucky Derby, when he didn't fare well, General Quarters has, among other things, won the Grade I Turf Classic at Churchill Downs; finished second in the Grade III Mineshaft and Grade II New Orleans Handicap; and finished third in the Grade I Stephen Foster.

2008

Third-ranked Colonel John went on to win the most important 3-year-old race at Saratoga, the Travers Stakes, in a scintillating stretch effort. Second-ranked Tale of Ekati won the Grade II Jerome and the Grade I Cigar Mile later in 2008.

2007

After a poor effort in the Derby, Nobiz Like Shobiz finished second in the Grade II Swaps, then was switched to turf and won the Grade II Hall of Fame Stakes, Grade III Kent Breeders' Cup and Grade II Jamaica Handicap. He registered a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile but was eighth in the Grade I Hollywood Derby.

Scat Daddy was tied for top rank but was hurt during the running of the Kentucky Derby and was retired.

Sam P. was ranked third but never awakened from his mental slumber.

Fourth-ranked Any Given Saturday was compromised by post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, was probably the victim of a minor injury during the race -- he finished eighth. After recovering, he reeled off wins in the Grade II Dwyer, Grade I Haskell and Grade II Brooklyn before finishing sixth on a sloppy track in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Street Sense ranked sixth in The Downey Profile but would have been in the Top Four had he won the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose instead of losing it by a nose.

2006

Barbaro, ranked third in the Downey Profile, looked to have a decent chance to win the Triple Crown, but he sustained a devastating injury in the first stretch run of the Preakness.

Jazil was in our Top Four and went on to win the Belmont Stakes.

Brother Derek, who was top-ranked, did not go on to do much.

Bob and John, who was second-ranked, turned out much the same as Brother Derek.

2005

Afleet Alex, the Downey Profile number one-ranked horse, lost the Kentucky Derby by one length. He went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, and was easily the nation's top three-year-old.

Flower Alley, who was ranked third, won the Jim Dandy Stakes before defeating Bellamy Road in the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes at Saratoga. The Travers is, of course, known as the "Mid-Summer Derby." Flower Alley closed out his 3-year-old campaign with a second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Buzzards Bay was ranked fourth in the Downey Profile and finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby at 41-1 odds after mounting a rally coming out of the far turn. His owners' partnership subsequently dissolved, he was sold, and he showed spotty performance afterward.

2004

Smarty Jones was in our Top Four and won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He finished second by a heart-breaking length in the Belmont Stakes and was retired.

The Cliff's Edge led the Profile Rankings, and although he was fifth in the Kentucky Derby after reportedly losing a shoe in the race, he went to finish second in the Travers Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Dwyer Stakes before being retired in 2004 with physical problems. 

Imperialism was second-ranked in 2004 and validated himself with a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Third-ranked Borrego had a monster year in 2005, winning the Pacific Classic at 20-1 odds, followed with a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park.

2003

Fourth-ranked Funny Cide won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and was third in the Belmont Stakes.

Second-ranked Empire Maker was second in the Kentucky Derby and won the Belmont. He skipped the Preakness.

Third-ranked Ten Most Wanted was second in the Belmont and won the Travers. He skipped the Preakness.

Second-, third- and fourth-ranked Empire Maker, Ten Most Wanted and Funny Cide ran one-two-three in the Belmont.

Top-ranked Buddy Gil flopped in the Derby; developed physical problems, skipped other big three-year-old races; and was retired.

2002

Top-ranked Medaglia d’Oro ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby and eighth in the Preakness. Bettors gave up on him, and he ran second in the Belmont Stakes at 16-1 odds. He subsequently won the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes. The following year he won the Whitney, the Oaklawn Handicap and the Strub. He finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2002 and 2003, and was second in the Dubai World Cup.

Third-ranked Came Home ran fifth in the Derby but won the Swaps, the Affirmed, and the 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic later in the year.

Fourth-ranked Perfect Drift ran third in the Kentucky Derby and tailed off later, only to come back and defeat Mineshaft in the Stephen Foster the following year, as well as winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup, Kentucky Cup Classic and the Washington Park Handicap.

Second-ranked Harlan’s Holiday earned over $3 million dollars before being retired.

2001

Top-ranked Point Given ran fifth in a Kentucky Derby that no one will ever be able to explain. He then reeled off four consecutive Grade I wins: Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, Travers.

Second-ranked Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby. He was ranked number one in our separate Performance Points Only category, which does not utilize any pedigree-related factors.

Third-ranked Congaree finished third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, was still running at age six, and earned over $3.2 million dollars including winning the Swaps, the 1 1/4 mile Hollywood Gold Cup and twice winning the Cigar Mile before being retired.

2000

A strange year for the Profile. While he did not rank in the top four of our base Profile, the Total Points Category, Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus was number one in our Performance Points Only Category.

1999

Top-ranked Cat Thief was third in the Kentucky Derby and later won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, paying $41.20.

KENTUCKY DERBY SUBSCRIPTION PAGE

In 2021, because of a number of reasons, I decided to take life a little easier. For that reason, only a subscription to the Kentucky Derby is offered. We are not offering a subscription that includes the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Whether you're an experienced handicapper or a novice, The Downey Profile gives you an edge in the Kentucky Derby. Our centerpiece of the original Kentucky Derby Subscription Page. We try to have a lot of fun with this and make money too.

Dick Downey is at Churchill Downs with the track clockers, very early in the morning, eight or 10 days before the Kentucky Derby in order to assess which horses are training well over the track, especially those that rank in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile. With modern technology, video of final workouts at other venues have became easier to access, such as Justify's final breeze at Santa Anita the weekend before his Derby. I write about these workouts on the Derby Subscription Page, and we try to plug that information into the Downey Profile rankings.

We build The Downey Profile on this same Kentucky Derby Subscription Page. There is a one-time annual charge for this Subscription.

In 2015, we added a second Subscription Page, and there was a good response, but we have not offered it since 2020. The 2016 Subscription service got off to a late start due to Downey's father's illness, and only the Derby was offered. Mr. Downey passed away later that year. In 2017 and 2018, the second Subscription Page returned and was available again in 2019 and 2020.

Another reminder, our Kentucky Derby Subscription does not include a Preakness + Belmont Package.

OTHER FEATURES

This service typically includes other features: (1) News tidbits tying things together, (2) free PPs, (3) easy links to other useful information. We especially try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes, etc.

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We offer, without charge, numerous free pages containing entries and results of the prep races, Si's Selections, updated Derby points, the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Triple Crown nominations, and other info that's simple to find. Take a little time to review the Home page, which shows a menu of subjects in multiple links.

This is no longer offered, but in the past we featured in the free part of the site our incomparable lists pages: Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case. In 2020, we discontinued the Just In Case page, and in 2021 we discontinued all the lists pages. On these pages were bios of the horses including state bred, trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage profile, foal date, race history and extensive chart calls and connections quotes.

The best way to use the site is to familiarize yourself with all the pages up front, so that the information you want will always be at your fingertips. The site is easy to navigate.

How The Downey Profile Fared: Runnings Since 2003

2023

Mage did not rank well at all and won the Kentucky Derby at 15-1 odds. Our top choice and top Profile horse, Angel of Empire, ran a credible third. Our third selection was a Profile Buster, and Two Phil's finished second in a sensational effort. Hit Show, a Top 4 horse, finished fifth at long odds. Disarm, one of our two longshot selections, finished fourth. Fourth selection and Top 4 horse Tapit Trice was seventh; and Kingsbarns, a subjective selection, joined Verifying in setting insane fractions before being engulfed by most of the field. We did not include Confidence Game, a Top 4 horse, in our selections.

2022

Rich Strike won at 80-1 odds after drawing in as from the also-eligible list. We did not give him any credence before the race. We liked and touted Epicenter, who finished second, but he didn't rank well in The Downey Profile. Zandon was in our Top 4 and we picked him to win. He had a tough trip and finished third; Epicenter dug in and wouldn't let him by, and Rich Strike came from the clouds to overtake them both. A big show bet on Zandon helped save my day. Simplification was fourth in the Derby but didn't figure in our Profile. I didn't realize until later my All Others wagers in the Derby Futures Pools also cashed.

2021

The winner of the Kentucky Derby was disqualified due to a Class C drug overage. Second finisher Mandaloun didn't fit The Downey Profile, but we reported on how well he was training, and he was a longshot pick before running at 26-1 odds. Hot Rod Charlie, a Top 4 horse in The Downey Profile, was our top pick to win. He finished third, beaten one length, and was moved up to second by the DQ of the winner. Essential Quality was also a Top 4 horse. He ran fourth, a head behind Hot Rod Charlie, and was moved up to third. O Besos ran fifth, moved up to fourth,

2020

Because the Kentucky Derby was run in September, the results are not relevant to our research. I did have Authentic in my Top 4 picks, along with Tiz the Law, who finished seond, and Honor A. P. , who was fourth. The top two finishers were among The Downey Profile's Top 4 rankings, as was Honor A. P.

2019

My top selection was Maximum Security, who ranked third in The Downey Profile. He won the race and could not be pulled up until after he re-entered the backstretch. Objectively, Maximum Security was much the best. However, the stewards chose to disqualify him, purportedly based on the objection of a jockey, Jon Court, who finished 17th on board Long Range Toddy. Before the Derby, which was run on a sloppy track, here's what I wrote about Long Range Toddy: "18. LONG RANGE TODDY: If the track were to come up fast, perhaps Long Range Toddy could finish fourth or so with a late run, but sloppy track or not, his Arkansas Derby was just terrible. He is of slight build and might not handle the traffic in the Derby. Trainer Asmussen ponied him onto the track for his last workout, and I have never seen a more dejected looking man. Maybe something else was bothering him, I don't know, but he looked unhappy. Long Range Toddy then proceeded to work very well, but his gallop-out was not too big at all. The post position is not very good, either. As stated, his lone sloppy-track effort was very poor." The other Top Four horses were Tacitus (fourth, moved up to third), Vekoma (13th, moved up to 12th) and Roadster (16th, moved up to 15th).

2018

Justify, Good Magic and Audible, who ran one-two-three in the Kentucky Derby, were all in The Downey Profile Top 4. The were sent off at odds of 5-2, 9-1 and 7-1, respectively. The $2 exacta returned $69.60, and the $1 trifecta paid $141.40. Downey had all three of them in his selections, with Justify and Good Magic picked to run one-two. This was the second straight year that The Downey Profile Top 4 yielded the Kentucky Derby trifecta. The Commish picked Mendelssohn to win, and he finished last, so The Commish promises to do better this year.

2017

Downey and The Commish never confer about their selections prior to the Triple Crown races. They each picked Always Dreaming, the top Profile Buster horse, to win the Kentucky Derby. Downey was particularly impressed with his final Derby workout when the exercise rider couldn't pull him up until he got over to the track kitchen, which was about where the workout began. The Commish noticed the ascension of his speed figs and decided he wouldn't bounce, and he noticed how much Downey had been writing about the horse. Classic Empire was the only Downey Proflie Top 4 horse to finish in the Top 4 of the Derby.

2016

Nyquist, a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.

2015

American Pharoah ranked number three in the Downey Profile and was Downey's pick to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, which he did. Downey's top five selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five. Dortmund was in the Top Four and ran third in the Derby. Frosted was ranked fifth and ran fourth in the Derby. Carpe Diem was in the Top Four but wasn't used in Downey's top five selections, and he ran up the track. Materiality was in the Top Four and Downey didn't use him. Firing Line didn't rank all that well, but he was highly touted in Downey's selections and finished second in the Derby. Downey also used Danzig Moon in selections, and he ran fifth.

2014

California Chrome was ranked number three and was Downey's pick to win the Kentucky Derby, and he won. Danza, who was ranked number two in the Downey Profile and who was the backup choice to win if California Chrome faltered, finished third. His chances were compromised when stable mate Vinceremos slammed into him early in the race. Samraat, the top-ranked horse in The Downey Profile, was our third choice and finished fifth.

2013

Orb, the Derby winner (ranked fifth in The Downey Profile) was a Profile Buster horse and became the third Profile Buster in the last four years to win the Kentucky Derby. Overanalyze (number 1) put in a brilliant workout six days before the Derby, but he was flat in the race. Java's War (number 2) had some physical issues that seemed to catch up with him. Normandy Invasion (number 3) finished fourth. Revolutionary (number 4) finished third.

2012

Number four Union Rags was Downey's selection to win the Derby. Two strides out of the gate, he was done. Profile Buster horses I'll Have Another were one-two in the Derby and the Preakness. Dullahan, ranked number two, finished third in the Derby. Number three-ranked Creative Cause finished fifth. Gemologist, ranked number one, finished sixteenth.

2011

Animal Kingdom won the Derby with a Top Four ranking in the Downey Profile. Top rated Brilliant Speed finished seventh. Poor Old Archarcharch unluckily drew the rail and finished fifteenth. Comma to the Top checked in last.

2010

Ice Box ranked second in our Total Points category and first in our Performance Points Only category. He ran second in the Derby after being blocked multiple times in the stretch and returned $11.20 to place and $8.00 to show.

2009

Pioneerof the Nile was our top-ranked horse and was picked to win the Kentucky Derby by Downey. He finished second after 50-1 shot Mine That Bird came up the rail to take the race.

At 6-1, Pioneerof the Nile paid $8.40 to place and $6.40 to show. An ascending bet of $150 to win, $200 to place and $250 to show returned $1,640.00.

Papa Clem ranked third and finished fourth.

The fourth rule of play we recommend states:

"Examine horses that jump in rank from the Total Points Category to the Performance Points Only Category...."

We gave little regard to the fact that Mine That Bird jumped from 16th in the Total Points Category to 10th in the Performance Points Only Category. In the end, he stitll ranked 10th at best. Lesson learned.

West Side Bernie ranked second, we put him fifth in our picks, and he finished ninth.

General Quarters ranked fourth, but Dick's Picks put him sixth. He finished tenth.

2008

2008 was one of the few tough years The Downey Profile has experienced. Third-ranked Colonel John, our choice to win, got into heavy traffic trouble the opening quarter mile. By the time he shook loose, he was out of contention and finished sixth. Tale of Ekati, ranked second in the Profile, finished fourth in the Derby.

Big Brown, the winner, ranked seventh. He was the 2.4-1 Derby favorite, and we reasoned at the time that it wasn't our job to tout this particular favorite in the Kentucky Derby. His bad feet were an issue that hounded him his entire career, and the reason that was given for his non-participation in Breeders' Cup. Why he lost the Belmont Stakes is a debate that will never end. Second finisher Eight Belles, whose death on the track past the finish line cast a pall over Derby 134, ranked only ninth in The Downey Profile.

2007

Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top. Street Sense was the next choice in Dick Downey's final picks.

In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose."

From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "In eight of the last 34 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the Profile has gone bust--that is to say, none of our top four horses made it to the winner’s circle. We've identified some themes tying some of these winners together.

"Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors."

2006

The second rule of play we recommended prior to the 2006 Kentucky Derby stated: "Pick one of the top four Profile horses in the Total Points Category to win and back it up across the board if that is your style. Top 4 horses have won 25 of the last 33 runnings of the Kentucky Derby."

For the 26th time in the previous 34 years, a horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. BARBARO ranked third in The Downey Profile. He was not the personal choice of publisher Dick Downey, whose pick, second-ranked BOB AND JOHN, encountered heavy traffic and finished a dull 17th. BARBARO, in contrast, got into handy position entering the first turn and made a far turn move to take the lead in upper stretch.

Top-ranked BROTHER DEREK dead-heated for fourth with JAZIL, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four. Second and third finishers BLUEGRASS CAT and STEPPENWOLFER ranked 10th and 18th, respectively, in the Downey Profile.

2005

The Downey Profile uses a Base Profile, called the Total Points Category, composed of both performance and pedigree factors. There is a backup Profile, called the Performance Points Only Category, which eliminates all pedigree factors and employs only performance factors.

The fourth rule of play we recommended prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby stated:

"Examine horses that jump in rank from the Total Points Category to the Performance Points Only Category. In 2004, Limehouse did just that, jumping from mid-pack in Total Points to a number 5 Ranking in Performance Points. He rounded out the superfecta with a fourth place finish at odds of 41-1."

In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."

--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

The Downey Profile ranked Afleet Alex number one in both categories. He was our pick to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby. He finished third, beaten one length, then went on to crush his opponents in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Closing Argument finished second in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. He was sent off by bettors at 71-1 odds. Likewise, he did not figure in the Downey Profile.

The 2005 Kentucky Derby exacta paid $9,814,80, the trifecta $133,134.80. Yours truly had Afleet Alex and Giacomo all over his tickets but did not pair up either of those two with Closing Argument.

2004

Smarty Jones, one of our favorite Derby horses of all time, ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. Not to boast, but we called the way the race would play out, with Smarty laying just off Lion Heart's speed, taking the lead near the top of the stretch, and racing a straight line to the wire.

2003

Both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, which paid $97.00.

The Factors Are Weighted

Each of the factors is weighted. We can't tell you the weights of them all, or we'd have nothing to sell you. But we are happy to tell you one, and to explain the weighting process.

Example: The Beyer factor

The Beyer speed ratings are published by the Daily Racing Form and were created by Andrew Beyer, the noted turf writer. The Beyer ratings were first applied to Kentucky Derby starters in 1992.

The Beyer factor is this: the horse ran at least a 100 Beyer figure in each of its final two starts before the Derby.

From 1992 through 2004, eight winners and a total of only 60 starters had the Beyer factor; five winners and a total of 164 starters did not. The ratio of winners to starters with the factor over that time frame was 4.37 times greater than the ratio of winners to starters without the factor. The weight assigned to the Beyer factor in 2005 was 4.37.

The Remaining Factors

This same statistical analysis has been applied to the remaining factors:

--Running style.

--Whether or not horse won at a mile or greater at age two.

--Whether or not horse broke his (or hers, for the infrequent filly) maiden within first three starts.

--Whether or not horse had final two-year-old race in October, November or December.

--Whether or not horse raced in January at age three.

--Total number of career starts (discontinued in 2013).

--Won or placed in any of five specific major Kentucky Derby prep races (we eliminated the Lane's End, later the Spiral, now the Jeff Ruby Steaks, from this category before the 2011 Kentucky Derby).

--How the horse ranks in earnings per start in three-year-old campaign, excluding the UAE Derby.

--The number of starts at age three.

--Whether or not horse has dosage index of 4.00 or less. This factor was discontinued after the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Over the course of the 44-year span of our study from 1973 through 2016, the impact of this factor finally became nil. During that time frame, the percentage of all starters with a dosage index of 4.00 or less became virtually identical to the percentage of winners with a dosage index of 4.00 or less.

--Whether horse has required dosage stamina points or has dominant classicity in the dosage profile.

--Whether horse is a dual qualifier (discontinued in 2016).

--Whether or not horse has a dosage index of 3.00 or less was discontinued a few years ago. Due to the continuing industry trend of breeding for speed as opposed to stamina, horses with a dosage index above 3.00 and those with an index below 3.00 were became weighted virtually equally in our study. Specifically, we revisited this factor after the 2013 Kentucky Derby and discovered that from 2006 through 2013, six of the eight winners had a dosage index of 3.00 or less, or 75% of all winners. However, the percentage of all starters with a dosage index of 3.00 or less was virtually identical to the percentage of winners with a dosage index of 3.00 or less. Accordingly, we discontinued this factor.

Profile Busters Profile

In 17 of the last 49 runnings through 2023 -- 2020 and 2021 are excluded in our calculations for reasons set out at the top of the page -- The Downey Profile has not produced a winner in its Top Four ranked horses. We have examined what happened, and we've determined some threads of commonality that have resulted in the Profile Busters Profile. This information is included in the Kentucky Derby Subscription Page.

From our 2007 Subscription Page, Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others.... Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors." Street Sense won, Hard Spun was second.

From our 2008 Subscription Page: "Adriano, Big Brown, Gayego and Recapturetheglory lead the Profile Busters Profile, with each having four Profile Busting factors. Big Brown won; Recapturetheglory was fifth.

In 2010, we identified three Profile Busters. One of them, Endorsement, defected late. One of them, Conveyance, was the speed and had no chance. The other one was the winner, Super Saver.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Optimizer was the only other Derby horse to run in the Belmont.

In 2013, Kentucky Derby winner Orb was a Profile Buster, making the 139th running of the Derby the third time in four years that a Profile Buster won the race.

In 2017, Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster horse, and he was our pick to win.

In 2023, Two Phil's did not win but he ran a bang-up race to finish second.

Dick Downey Bio

Dick Downey, owner and publisher of The Downey Profile, is a native Kentuckian who engaged in the private practice of law in south-Central Kentucky from 1977 to 2012. At the close of 2005, he retired from private practice after 28 years. In 2006, he began representing low-income clients in civil cases -- no criminal cases -- at Kentucky Legal Aid after serving on the board of directors for 22 years, serving as chair the last 15. After seven years at Kentucky Legal Aid, he retired again. In March 2014, Downey was appointed by the governor of Kentucky to serve as a Family Court Circuit Judge in Bowling Green, Kentucky to complete the unexpired term of the late Margaret Huddleston. He did not seek election to the office and retired again on Jan. 4, 2015. He currently mediates legal cases and has a very high rate of resolution.

Downey was introduced to Thoroughbred racing in the 1960’s by his parents, the late Doug and Betty Downey, who took him and their other children to the races at Churchill Downs and Keeneland.

In the 1990‘s, he became interested in Jennie Rees’ writings in the Louisville Courier-Journal about Kentucky Derby winner trends -- factors, as he calls them. In 1997, he first formed the idea to rank Kentucky Derby contenders by assigning a single point for each of a few factors that were present to a greater or lesser degree in that year’s group of starters, and the approach worked.

Curious as to whether these factors were statistically significant, he began an in-depth research project that consumed several hundred hours over the next few years. As time passed, he discovered that some of the factors he had initially used could be validated and that a few could not be -- and he found several more factors. The end result is The Downey Profile®, a qualitative analysis of the Kentucky Derby that has a positive application to the reality of the world‘s most difficult race to handicap.

The Downey Profile has been recognized under federal law, awarded a Service Mark by the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 2008. The Mark was renewed in 2013 and again in 2018.

John Cameron is a Louisville businessman who believed that Downey was onto something. In 2002, he encouraged Downey to start a website focused on the 2003 Kentucky Derby and Downey’s studies. The website, which is seasonal, has been published every year since.

The original connection of The Downey Profile to BloodHorse was the brainchild of Ron Mitchell, BloodHorse.com's former online editor and then, before his retirement, the publication's point man at Thoroughbred sales. Mitchell provided Downey with a blend of support and healthy skepticism during the developmental years, and the relationship of The Downey Profile and BloodHorse continued through 2014. Downey changed the way his website is presented in 2015. He and Mitchell remain good friends, and Downey still enjoys a positive relationship with BloodHorse.

In early 2022, Downey became a regular contributor to BloodHorse, writing about legal issues affecting the Thoroughbred industry. He continues to do that.

Downey has been involved in racing partnerships. The first was with Team Valor and the ill-fated Rodman. Since then, he's focused on more local ventures, the most successful one involving Techno Vision, a filly who was outstanding in the claiming ranks in Kentucky, and who was retired with a pulled suspensory ligament after winning five of 16 career starts and paying her own way.

Downey became completely hooked and among credentialed media at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness annually, sometimes the Belmont Stakes -- he was there in 2015 and 2016 -- and sometimes the Breeders' Cup. Along with his wife, the ever-patient Cindy, he has attended racing meets at Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Ellis Park, Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Saratoga, Santa Anita, Del Mar and, last but not least, the fall meet at Kentucky Downs. On a couple of occasions he and Cindy ventured overseas to attend the Irish Derby at Curragh and Arc d'Triomphe day at Longchamp.

Downey earned his undergraduate degree at Davidson College in 1973 and attended the University of Kentucky College of Law, graduating in 1977 and embarking in the private practiced of law. As for The Downey Profile, he’s self-taught.