PROFILE BUSTERS PROFILE
Posted April 29, 2025

2025 PROFILE BUSTERS

RODRIGUEZ (7). There are eight categories and we no longer use one of them, leaving seven. Rodriguez scored in all seven of those categories.
GRANDE (5)
SOVEREIGNTY (5)
JOURNALISM (5) does not qualify as a Profile Buster because he's in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile Rankings. In fact, he towers over the field.

PROFILE BUSTERS RANKINGS
RODRIGUEZ 7
GRANDE 5
JOURNALISM 5
SOVEREIGNTY 5
CHUNK OF GOLD 4
TIZTASTIC 4
AMERICAN PROMISE 3
BAEZA 3
BURNHAM SQUARE 3
FINAL GAMBIT 3
FLYING MOHAWK 3
LUXOR CAFE 3
SANDMAN 3
ADMIRE DAYTONA
CITIZEN BULL 2
COAL BATTLE 2
OWEN ALMIGHTY 2
PUBLISHER 2
EAST AVENUE 1
NEOEQUOS 1
RENDER JUDGMENT 0

PROFILE BUSTERS DETAILS

1. First, four of the Profile Busters (GRINDSTONE [who paid $13.80], REAL QUIET [$18.80], CHARISMATIC [$64.60] and WAR EMBLEM [$43.00]) were trained by either D. Wayne Lukas or Bob Baffert.

AMERICAN PROMISE, CITIZEN BULL, RODRIGUEZ

The year 2021 first included horses in this category that were trained by either Todd Pletcher or Doug O'Neill. Pletcher won the 2010 (Super Saver) and 2017 (Always Dreaming) Derbies with Profile Buster horses, and in 2012 (I'll Have Another), O'Neill won with a Profile Buster. He also trained 2016 Derby winner Nyquist, but Nyquist was in The Downey Profile Top 4.

GRANDE


2. Second, Profile Busters from Lukas, Baffert and others ran a triple digit Beyer speed rating in their final prep race.

JOURNALISM, RODRIGUEZ


3. Third, 10 Profile Busters ran either first or second in their final prep. WAR EMBLEM won the Illinois Derby. CHARISMATIC won the Lexington Stakes. REAL QUIET was second in the Santa Anita Derby. GRINDSTONE was second in the Arkansas Derby. STREET SENSE was second in the Toyota Blue Grass. BIG BROWN won the Florida Derby. SUPER SAVER was second in the Arkansas Derby. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER won the Santa Anita Derby. ORB won the Florida Derby. ALWAYS DREAMING won the Florida Derby.

ADMIRE DAYTONA, AMERICAN PROMISE, BAEZA, BURNHAM SQUARE, CHUNK OF GOLD, EAST AVENUE, FINAL GAMBIT, FLYING MOHAWK, GRANDE, JOURNALISM, LUXOR CAFE, PUBLISHER, RODRIGUEZ, SANDMAN, SOVEREIGNTY, TIZTASTIC,


4. Next, at least 10 Profile Busters ran either first or second in at least two of their three races preceding the Derby.

ADMIRE DAYTONA, BAEZA, BURNHAM SQUARE, CHUNK OF GOLD, CITIZEN BULL, COAL BATTLE, FINAL GAMBIT, FLYING MOHAWK, GRANDE, JOURNALISM, LUXOR CAFE, OWEN ALMIGHTY, RODRIGUEZ, SANDMAN, SOVEREIGNTY


5. Of the 16 Profile-Busting Derby winners, three ranked fifth in our Total Points Profile, four ranked sixth, and four ranked seventh. The Profile, of course, focuses on its Top 4.

COAL BATTLE (t), RODRIGUEZ, SOVEREIGNTY, TIZTASTIC (t)


6. Two Profile Busters were 2005 Kentucky Derby winner GIACOMO and 2000 Derby winner FUSAICHI PEGASUS.

A. Jumps in Performance Points Only Category. For example, Giacomo was ranked thirteenth in our Total Points Category but jumped to fifth in the Performance Points Only Category, meaning he was outrunning his pedigree. The Performance Points Only Category does not utilize the sole remaining dosage factor employed in the Total Points Category.

SEVERAL MAY JUMP A NOTCH, BUT DUE TO THE LIMITED DOSAGE POINTS EMPLOYED IN THE DOWNEY PROFILE AT THIS TIME, THIS CATEGORY IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED RELEVANT

B. Fusaichi Pegasus stands alone. He ranked fifth in our Total Points Category but jumped to first in the Performance Points Only Category. At that time, the Performance Points Only Category did not utilize any of the dosage factors employed in the Total Points Category, and now it doesn't utilize the sole remaining dosage factor employed in the Total Points Category.

NONE

7. Another factor to watch, in terms of horses capable of busting the Profile, is the horse that can reserve his speed and race along close to an average of 12 seconds per furlong at each call of the race in a nine-furlong Kentucky Derby prep race. That topic is covered in Section 3 of this Subscription. I award "12's" to horses that hit the mark in at least three calls of their nine-furlong (or longer) races at age three.

BAEZA, BURNHAM SQUARE, CHUNK OF GOLD, CHUNK OF GOLD, GRANDE, JOURNALISM, NEOEQUOS, OWEN ALMIGHTY, SANDMAN, PUBLISHER, RODRIGUEZ, SOVEREIGNTY, TIZTASTIC,

8. For the first time in 2012, we included this as a Profile Buster factor: The horse finished the last three furlongs of a nine-furlong race in 38 seconds or less. This topic is covered in detail in Section 4.

AMERICAN PROMISE, FINAL GAMBIT, FLYING MOHAWK, GRANDE, JOURNALISM, LUXOR CAFE, RODRIGUEZ, SOVEREIGNTY, TIZTASTIC

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BACKGROUND

In 18* of the last 50 runnings (for statistical purposes, not counting the Derby run in September 2020 and the Derby won by Medina Spirit and subsequently disqualified for a drug infraction) of the Kentucky Derby, the Downey Profile has gone bust -- that is to say, none of our top four horses won the race. We've identified some themes tying some of these winners together.

OVERVIEW since 2007

>In 2007, Hard Spun, Street Sense* and Curlin were our Profile Busters, and they made up the Kentucky Derby trifecta.

>In 2008, Big Brown was tied with three others for the leading number of Profile-busting factors. The other three were Adriano, Gayego and Recapturetheglory.

>In 2009, Mine That Bird was nowhere to be found as a Profile Buster. Dunkirk and Friesan Fire were the Profile Busters horses, but they did little and nothing in the Kentucky Derby.

>In 2010, Super Saver was one of two horses identified as Profile Busters. Downey used him in selections, and he won. The other one was Conveyance, whom we did not use in our selections for the Kentucky Derby.

>In 2011, Nehro was one of two horses identified as Profile Busters. He finished second. The other one was Midnight Interlude, whom we did not use in our selections for the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom, the winner, was in The Downey Profile Top 4.

>In 2012, one-two finishers I'll Have Another and Bodemeister were both Profile Buster horses. Dullahan, who ran third, was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. The winner, I'll Have Another, ranked sixth in The Downey Profile; and Bodemeister, who finished second, was pretty far down the Downey Profile rankings but was the only horse with back-to-back triple-digit Beyers going into the Derby.

>In 2013, Profiile Buster Orb won the Kentucky Derby, but he was part of a crowded field -- four Profile Busters were identified that year.

>In 2014, winner California Chrome was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and won. He also was tied for the most Profile Buster points.

>In 2015, American Pharoah was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and won. He also had the most Profile Buster points.

>In 2016, Nyquist was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and he won. He was third in Profile Buster points.

>In 2017, Always Dreaming was our Profile Buster, and he was Downey's pick to win the Kentucky Derby. That year, the Downey Profile Top 4 horses hadn't been all that consistent, and Always Dreaming put in a super-impressive final workout before the Kentucky Derby.

>In 2018, Justify was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and won. He also had the most Profile Buster points along with Mendelssohn, who finished last.

>In 2019, Maximum Security** was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and won the race. Stewards disqualified him to 18th. The Profile Buster that year was Improbable, and he finished fifth, moved up to fourth by stewards.

>2020 does not count in our analysis because the Derby was run four months later than normal. In case you're curious, Tiz the Law easily had the most Profile Buster points, but he was also among The Downey Profile Top 4 horses. Authentic, who ranked third in Profile Buster points, was also in The Downey Profile Top 4.

>In 2021, the declared winner of the Derby, Mandaloun, was neither a Top 4 Downey Profile horse nor a Profile Buster. Known Agenda was the Profile Buster, and he finished ninth at 9-1 odds.

>In 2022, 90-1 Rich Strike was not on the radar at all in either The Downey Profile or the Profile Busters Profile. Epicenter was the 2022 Profile Buster, and he looked like he had the race won until Rich Strike ran him down in the closing seconds of the race.

>In 2023 Two Phil's and Mandarin Hero were our Profile Busters. We were not keen on Mandarin Hero. Two Phil's worked well leading into the Derby and became Downey's third selection. He finished a strong second.

>In 2024 Catching Freedom, Just Steel and Resilience topped the Profile Busters Profile with five points apiece. Mystik Dan, who ranked poorly in both the Downey Profile and Profile Busters Profile, won.

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*Street Sense, a Profile Buster, was ranked sixth in the 2007 Downey Profile and would have been in the Top Four but for a nose loss in the Blue Grass Stakes, a fact which we noted going into the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

**In 2019, Maximum Security won the Kentucky Derby but was disqualified by stewards for interfering with a horse that finished 17th. He was the best horse that day, and he was in the Top 4. His performance, in my opinion, should be included among the horses in the Top 4 that won the Kentucky Derby.